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Analyzing Industry Employment Characteristics Presented by Greg Weeks, Ph.D. Washington State Employment Security Department Director Labor Market and Economic Analysis April 10, 2008 Doubletree Guest Suites Hotel Phoenix, AZ. QCEW LEHD Industry Projections Staffing Patterns. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Analyzing Industry Employment Characteristics
Presented by
Greg Weeks, Ph.D.
Washington State Employment Security Department
DirectorLabor Market and Economic Analysis
April 10, 2008Doubletree Guest Suites Hotel
Phoenix, AZ
Sources of Industry Information Available from LMI Shops
• QCEW
• LEHD
• Industry Projections
• Staffing Patterns
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
(QCEW)
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
• Funded by BLS.• There is a QCEW program in every state.• The data is collected and published at the
national level by BLS.
QCEW History
• QCEW began as result of Social Security Act of 1935
• Officially started in 1938 with the inception of the national UI system
• Collected data to determine if UI programs were in compliance with the Act
QCEW History (cont)
• In 1972 technical responsibility transferred to BLS.
• During the 1980’s BLS launched several projects to improve the quality of the data. Including adding new data elements and multiple worksite locations.
Covered vs Non-covered Employment
• What isn’t covered/included:– Sole proprietors– Domestics under $1000 per quarter– Family farms under $20,000 quarterly payroll– Exempt corporate offices– College work-study students– Church employees– Self employed Independent Contractors– Certain commissioned salespeople– Active Military– Railroad Employees
Covered vs. Non-covered (cont)
• According to the BLS website, “QCEW, best describes this program, as we are a virtual census of employment in the United States, covering 99.7% of wage and salary civilian employment.”
UI Tax Rate & Actuarial Analysis
UI-Covered Employment
Local Area Unemployment
Personal Income (BEA)
Gross Domestic Product (BEA)
Economic Forecasting
Current Employment Statistics
Occupational Employment Statistics
Job Creation/Destruction•Size Class Dynamics•Business Survival Rates
Geocoded Establishments
Occupational Employment Statistics
Occupational Safety and Health Statistics
Current Employment Statistics
National Compensation Survey
Industrial Price Program
Occupational Safety and Health Statistics
Programmatic Uses
Benchmarking(Employment Base)
General Economic Uses
Quarterly Census of Employment &
Wage Data
Analytical Uses Sampling
Mass Layoff Statistics
State Revenue Projections
Jobs Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
Quarterly Press Releases, Annual Employment and Wages
Local Economic Development Indicators
• Clusters Analysis• Shift Share• Industry Diversity Indexes• Location Quotients
Federal Funds Allocation$175 Billion
(HUD, USDA, HCFA/CHIP)
Minimum Wage Studies
Uses Of Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data
Local Economic Impact Response Planning
Local Government Services Planning
Interagency Data Uses• Improve CPS After 2000 Census• LEHD• Industry Code Sharing
Local Transportation Planning
QCEW is available through state LMI websites, BLS website, and through the
state LMI economic analysts
• Industry detail• Number of companies, employment, wages• Historic benchmark• County, State, national• Ability to do custom geographies
QCEW will reveal:
• Industry distribution for an area– Summary and details
• Employment trends over time
• Comparisons between industry /area
• Rates of change
• Employment by size of company
• Small area analysis
Industry distribution
Employment over time
Comparisons Specialty Trade Contractors ShareHeavy and Civil Engineering Share
Construction of Buildings Share
05009590Source: Haver Analytics
4.50
3.75
3.00
2.25
1.50
0.75
0.00
4.50
3.75
3.00
2.25
1.50
0.75
0.00
Rates of change
Total Nonfarm: WashingtonMonthly Change, Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands
Total Nonfarm: Washington6-Month Average Change, Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands
07060504
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
Employment by size
Small area analysis
QCEW will
• Industry distribution for an area– Summary and details
• Employment trends over time
• Comparisons between industry /area
• Rates of change
• Employment by size of company
• Small area analysis
QCEW program provides baseline industry data, but LED goes several steps further
• The LED program is a partnership between the member states (soon to be all but MA) and the Census Bureau.
• States contribute UI wage files and the QCEW data.• Census contributes age and gender information and a LOT of data
processing and data analysis.• The program returns a lot of easily accessible data and state
specific databases, which we will summarize in a few minutes.• The data returned to the states are not microdata.• The LED data is “fuzzed” so that detailed data can be presented for
very small geographies and detailed industry level (up to 4-digit).• Hallmarks of the program include: shared governance (Census
Bureau staff plus elected state representatives); a Culture of Innovation;
LMI Shops have access to detailed LED databases
. tab yearqtr if sex == 0 & agegrp == 0 & county == 0 & naics == "31-33", summa> rize (emp)
| Summary of Emp yearqtr | Mean Std. Dev. Freq.------------+------------------------------------ 19902 | 336808 0 1 19903 | 343100 0 1 19904 | 340617 0 1 19911 | 319957 0 1 19912 | 320757 0 1 19913 | 329689 0 1 19914 | 330409 0 1 19921 | 313766 0 1 19922 | 318013 0 1 19923 | 322543 0 1 19924 | 320413 0 1 19931 | 307187 0 1 19932 | 313342 0 1 19933 | 318629 0 1 19934 | 317335 0 1 19941 | 302381 0 1 19942 | 307925 0 1 19943 | 316260 0 1 19944 | 319463 0 1 19951 | 307931 0 1 19952 | 313107 0 1 19953 | 314671 0 1 19954 | 298291 0 1 19961 | 305734 0 1 19962 | 313205 0 1 19963 | 325220 0 1 19964 | 333329 0 1 19971 | 325441 0 1 19972 | 338960 0 1 19973 | 354261 0 1 19974 | 356826 0 1 19981 | 348432 0 1 19982 | 352670 0 1 19983 | 359502 0 1 19984 | 356134 0 1 19991 | 341338 0 1 19992 | 340996 0 1 19993 | 343972 0 1 19994 | 341028 0 1 20001 | 327127 0 1 20002 | 327209 0 1 20003 | 330008 0 1 20004 | 328245 0 1 20011 | 305568 0 1 20012 | 303081 0 1 20013 | 306430 0 1 20014 | 296730 0 1 20021 | 275456 0 1 20022 | 277000 0 1 20023 | 281247 0 1 20024 | 274047 0 1 20031 | 263161 0 1
Percent over 54 for all workers and women, information industry, Washington State
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
1990
2
1990
4
1991
2
1991
4
1992
2
1992
4
1993
2
1993
4
1994
2
1994
4
1995
2
1995
4
1996
2
1996
4
1997
2
1997
4
1998
2
1998
4
1999
2
1999
4
2000
2
2000
4
2001
2
2001
4
2002
2
2002
4
2003
2
2003
4
2004
2
2004
4
2005
2
2005
4
2006
2
2006
4
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
Percent Older
Percent Older Female
Percent Female
Age Distribution Over Time
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
14-18
19-21
22-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-99
Other Data Sources
• Industry Projections
• UI Claims
• Occupations within Industry
• Current Employment Statistics
In Summary
• QCEW and LEHD lead the way– Detailed industry level information– Multiple characteristics
• Industry, size, age, gender
– Trend and Compare– County based plus..
• Other