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Analytical tools: South Africa and MAPS experiences. LEDS Collaboration in Action Workshop London, 21-23 March 2012. Marta Torres Energy Research Centre , University of Cape Town (SA) MAPS Research Coordinator. The LTMS story. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Analytical tools: South Africa and MAPS experiencesLEDS Collaboration in Action WorkshopLondon, 21-23 March 2012
Marta TorresEnergy Research Centre, University of Cape
Town (SA)MAPS Research Coordinator
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
The LTMS story• Experience of South African Government mandated Long Term
Mitigation Scenarios (2005-2008)
• Stakeholder-driven approach, reliance on scenarios, rigour of research and modelling
• Provide a robust evidence base that enable South African President to put forward a pledge in Copenhagen, for emissions to 'peak, plateau and decline'
• Informs domestic policy, completed in 2011
• Internationally recognized as world-class best practice
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
LTMS Analytics
0
150
300
R 102
Electric vehicles with nuclear, renewables
0
150
300
R 92
Renewables, extended
0
150
300
R 125
Subsidy for renewables
0
150
300
R 20
Nuclear, extended
0
150
300
-R 34
Industrial efficiency
0
150
300
R 18
Nuclear
0
150
300
R 52
Renewables
0
25
50
R 72
CCS 20 Mt
0
25
50
R 697
Biofuel subsidy
0
25
50
R 1,987
Hybrids
0
25
50
-R 5
Cleaner coal
0
25
50
-R 1,131
Passenger modal shift
0
25
50
R 524
Biofuels
0
25
50
-R 208
SWH subsidy
0
150
300
-R 269
Improved vehicle efficiency
0
25
50
R 607
Electric vehicles in GWC grid
0
25
50
-R 198
Residential efficiency
0
25
50
-R 203
Commercial efficiency
All Medium Wedges
0
150
300 All Small Wedges
0
25
50
0
5
10
R 50
Enteric fermentation
0
5
10
-R 19
Manure management
0
5
10
R 24
Reduced tillage
0
25
50
R 14
Waste management
0
25
50
-R 15
Fire control
0
5
10
R 39
Afforestation
0
5
10R 346
Coal mine methane
0
5
10R 476
Synfuels CCS 2 Mt
0
5
10R 8
Synfuels methane
0
5
10R 0
Aluminium
0
25
50
R 105
Synfuels CCS 23 Mt
0
150
300
450
600
R 42
Escalating CO2 tax
0
150
300Renewables with learning,
extended
R3
0
5
10
-R 4,404
Limit less eff
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
2023
2027
2031
2035
2039
2043
2047
Ran
ds p
er
ton
Other Coal
Other Coal
Existing elec
SasolNew elec
Existing elec
New elec
Sasol
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
• Collaboration amongst developing countries: contribute to common body of knowledge
• Government mandated country-wide assessments to explore pathways to a climate compatible economy
• Establish evidence base for long term transition to robust economies: carbon efficient & climate resilient
• Contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation that aligns economic development with poverty alleviation
MAPS: Mitigation Action Plans & Scenarios
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
MAPS Analytics
Discussion/Assessment of development Paths, before
mitigation interventions
Assessment of Mitigation Actions
Discussion/Assessment of development paths, after mitigation interventions
ExploringApproaches to mapping drivers:• IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios
(SRES)Modelling approaches• Optimisation/Simulation• Sectoral models: LEAP, MARKAL, MESSAGE,
IMACLIM, GLUE, IFSM, EXACT, asmGHG …• System dynamics• Economy-wide modelingMore analytical tools• Multi-criteria Analysis• Action Impact Matrix (AIM)
…
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Tools, part of many other considerations
Tools&Analysis
Management Information
DecisionRaw data
Ability to answer to key policy questions
Tools
Raw data
…
National context
Legitimacy
Consistency
Evidence Decision
Process design, including a research methodology for
a specific team
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Learnings
Critical question: are your tools able to provide credible and legitimate results that have high utility value for policy-makers?
INSIGHTS
• Country-driven, non-prescriptive methodology, ownership
• No right or wrong tools• Different tools,
different answers• No single model fits
everyone/everything• Best available data
CHALLENGES
• Mitigation in the context of development
• Robust modeling across sectors and economy-wide analysis, in a time-constrained period
• International negotiations context and country-positions
ENABLERS
• Robust dataset thanks to stakeholder involvement
• Scenario-driven approaches
• High-level mandate• Local experts using
world-class methods
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Main MAPS research work areas
• Socio-economic and environmental implications• Sectoral modeling• Mitigation Action country studies• Equity• Linking• Methodologies (and models): pros, cons,
implications• Policy: context, institutionalization complexes,
implementation• Planning• NAMA/LCDS interface• Mitigation and Poverty: micro and macro• Regional modeling
COLLABORATION
• Discuss, learn, exchange among equals
• Avoid mistakes from other processes/countries
MORE CHALLENGES
• From evidence, to planning and to implementation, … and back to evidence
• Reference case• Unknown technologies and
human behavior patterns• …
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Conclusions• Are tools a bottleneck? A large number of developing and
developed countries currently building plans and scenarios• Tools accessibility important, but not necessarily key to make a
change at country-level. Invest in the people, they will make a transformational change
• Process and research need to work together• Main question for South Africa and MAPS countries is: can
mitigation play a role in achieving socio-economic development goals, and how? --> Linking of GHG sectoral and economy-wide models is crucial for us
• Be able to get consensus, convince your policy-makers: use best research for a credible, legitimate and relevant evidence base
Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Thank you!
For more information:MAPS - www.mapsprogramme.org
Marta Torres [email protected]
Energy Research Center, University of Cape Town
