Upload
phungtram
View
216
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Petroleum
Petrochemical
Deep Seaport
Industrial Zone
Analyst Meeting 2Q12 30 July 2012
Petrochemical
Industrial Zone
I. 2Q12 Highlights
II. Operation & Financial Performance
III. Industry Outlook
IV. Near-term Phoenix Projects Update
AGENDA
2
I. 2Q12 Highlights
II. Operation & Financial Performance
III. Industry Outlook
IV. Near-term Phoenix Projects Update
AGENDA
3
4
2Q12 Highlights
6.0
1.1 2.6
2.9
0.8 2.9 1.3
1.8
8.9
3.1
7.2
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
2Q11 1Q12 2Q12
GIM
Power & Utility
Petrochemical
Petroleum
80% 86%
MKT GIM
80%
8.3 4.7
-2.5
4.6
1.8
1.0
1.3
1.8
12.8 7.7
0.2
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2Q11 1Q12 2Q12
A/C GIM
Utilization rate
• Despite deteriorating economic conditions in 2Q12,
projected global economic growth has been
marginally revised downward, with the growth
rate of 3.5% and 3.9% in 2012 and 2013
respectively, and
anticipated better future prospects remain
unchanged.
• Main determinants of global economic prospects are
the effectiveness of policies aimed to stem
Euro-zone debt crisis. and
fiscal as well as monetary stimulus in emerging
countries.
Economic Outlook
Operation Performance
Global GDP Growth
(Percent; quarter over quarter, annualized)
Source: IMF staff estimates.
• In 2Q12, average Dubai price declined by $10/bbl to
$106, due to renewed concerns over Euro-zone
debt problem and deceleration of Chinese
economy.
• Crude utilization in 2Q12 was at 171 KBD, 80% of
total capacity.
• Market GIM rose to 7.2 $/bbl in 2Q12 from 3.1 $/bbl
in 1Q12.
• However, there was net stock loss of 7.0 $/bbl
Strategic Investment
5
2Q12 Highlights
• Fitch Ratings affirmed our national
long-term rating at A-(tha) with a stable
outlook on 19 July 2012.
• 28% progress of Phoenix Projects
• PRP Project: Completed with additional 100 KTA
• Lube Group I Project: Almost completed (98.89%)
with additional TDAE 28 KTA &150-BS 38 KTA
• Bankai: EIA approved
Phoenix
Finance
• Acquired 25% shares of UBE Chemicals (Asia) “UCHA”, a leader in global caprolactam and nylon-6 market
I. 2Q12 Highlights
II. Operation & Financial Performance
III. Industry Outlook
IV. Near-term Phoenix Projects Update
AGENDA
6
• Net Sales Revenue increased by 11%: - Quantity 13%, Price -2%
• EBITDA before stock G/(L) & LCM decreased by 351 MB.
- Market GIM decreased from 8.88 $/bbl to 7.24$/bbl.
- Gain of 282 MB from recognized MKT price of Platinum.
• Net EBITDA decreased by 5,669 MB from 2Q12 net stock
loss of 2,203 MB and LCM of 1,235 MB vs 2Q11 net stock
gain of 1,880 MB.
• Net profit decreased by 6,397 MB.
- Depreciation and interest expenses increased by 335 MB
due to CHP starting COD in June 11.
- Unrealized FX loss from USD loan increased by 208 MB
due to depreciation of THB.
- Unrealized loss from Thai Oil Share increased by 104
MB: 72.25 ฿/share as of 31 Mar 12 and 57.50 ฿/share
as of 30 Jun 12.
- 196 MB charge from ship rental contract litigation.
2Q12 2Q11 (%) 1H12 1H11 (%)
Net Sales 72,346 64,905 11 146,261 121,450 20
EBITDA before stock G/(L)&LCM 1,640 1,991 (18) 1,192 4,104 (71)
EBITDA (1,798) 3,871 (146) 175 8,748 (98)
Net Profit before stock G/(L)&LCM (622) 457 (236) (2,099) 1,466 (243)
Net Profit (4,060) 2,337 (274) (3,116) 6,110 (151)
Crude Run : MBBL 15.58 15.66 (0.5) 32.36 30.98 4
Sales Volume : MBBL 17.03 14.98 13 33.54 29.09 15
7
2Q12 Financial Highlights
2Q12 vs 2Q11
7
8
2Q12 Market Movement
Data Source : Platt’s
•Dubai price decreased dramatically from 120$/bbl at the end of 1Q12 to 93$/bbl at the
end of 2Q12 due to ongoing debt crisis in Euro-zone and slowdown global economies.
However, the average Dubai price in 2Q12 was 106.4 $/bbl, dropping by 10$/bbl (9%)
when compared to that in 1Q12.
• As a result of declining crude oil price, the spread of petroleum products was narrower.
Diesel spread was 15 $/bbl, decreasing by 6%.
Gasoline spread was 14 $/bbl, decreasing by 2%.
HSFO spread was -1.3 $/bbl, decreasing by 160%.
500 SN spread was 621 $/MT, increasing by 24%, due to higher price of its products.
• Naphtha price movement was in line with crude price. The average price was 893 $/MT,
dropping by 128$/MT (12%). Nevertheless,
Olefins spread was wider rising by 34% on average.
Styrenics spread was wider, rising by 17%: this was because Polymer price was rather stable.
8
-
40
80
120
160
200
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12
Dubai ULG95 Gasoil Fuel OilDubai
9
Oil Price Movement, Product Crack & GRM
Source: Platts, IRPC Analysis Team
Avg. Dubai
$/BBL
S’pore GRM
Ending Price
100 111 107 106 116 106 97 ▲11 ▼4 ▼1 ▲9
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MTD 1H11 1H12
12.6 14.3 17.3 9.8
14.3 14.0 12.3 13.5 14.1
ULG95-DB $/BBL
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MTD 1H11 1H12
18.2 19.5 17.6 17.8 16.4 15.4 17.2 18.8 15.9
Gas Oil-DB $/BBL
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MTD 1H11 1H12
-9.1 -8.6 -3.2
-0.4 -0.5 -1.3 -1.2
-8.9
-0.9
FO-DB $/BBL
▼10
7.4 8.7 7.9 9.1 7.5 6.6 6.9
• Average Dubai price in 2Q12 was $106/bbl (a $10/bbl
drop), mainly caused by concerns over global
economic problem, particularly ongoing Euro-zone
crisis and slowing growth in China.
• ULG and Diesel spread slightly decreased as a result
of sluggish growth reducing the demand.
• Yet, ULG spread was still relatively high due to
maintenance shutdown in several Asian refineries
and accumulation of US oil reserves.
• HSFO spread worsened relative to last quarter but
was still better than last year due to strong demand
induced by temporary closure of Japanese nuclear
power plants.
109 93 107 101 105 120
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 1H11 1H12
3.1 1.7 2.9 2.4 -0.3 0.2
2.4 -0.1
3.0 4.2 4.5
2.6
1.4 2.4
3.6
1.9
6.1 6.0 7.4
5.0
1.1 2.6
6.0
1.8
Market GRM Refined Lube Base$/BBL
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MTD 1H11 1H12
(97) (84) (95) (70)
(99)
(32) (8)
(90) (65)
Asphalt-FO 180 3.5%S $/Ton
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MTD 1H11 1H12
629 781 786
632 500
621 651 705 560
500SN-FO 180 3.5%S $/Ton
$/Ton
Lube Base Price Movement
FO 180 3.5%S
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12
FO 180 3.5%S 150BS 500SN AsphaltLube Base $/Ton
10
• Lube and asphalt spread increased. The driving factor for such increase was refineries’ maintenance shutdown.
• The increased demand for asphalt was also driven by an increase in Chinese’s infrastructure investments.
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MTD 1H11 1H12
254 196 212 141 147 161 175 225 154
459 495 438 393 261
391 422 477
326
712 691 651 533
408 551
597 701
480
Proplylene-NP
PP-Proplylene
$/Ton
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MTD 1H11 1H12
317 298 204 171 230 291 250 307 261
135 99 239 269 145 203 240 117 174
451 397 443 440
374 494 490
424 434
HDPE-ETH
ETH-NP
$/Ton
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12
Naphtha Ethylene Propylene HDPE PP Olefins $/Ton
PP - Propylene - Naphtha
Naphtha
11
Olefins Price Movement
HDPE - Ethylene - Naphtha
• A rise in Olefins and Polyolefins spread was mainly brought about by a drop in naphtha price.
• The prices of Polyolefins products also dropped but in a lesser extent.
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 1H11 1H12
93 94 111 -22 11
122 93 66
125 83 146
166 51
115 104 83
102 91
123
37
31
138 96
85
$/Ton
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MTD 1H11 1H12
1,403 1,247 1,219 1,011 1,058 1,081 1,125
1,325 1,069
$/Ton
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MTD 1H11 1H12
498 434 531 448 428 516 570 466 472
215 242 182 218 220 224 219 229 222
636 577 604 559 543 636 788
607 590
SM-NP
PS-SM
$/Ton
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12
Naphtha PS ABS EPS Styrenics $/Ton
1Q10 3Q10 2Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
12
Styrenics Price Movement
Styrene
Market PTF PS - SM - Naphtha
ABS - Naphtha
• There was an improvement in the styrenics spread.
• Although styrenics product price declined, the price of naphtha dropped faster.
Aromatics
Olefins
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MTD 1H11 1H12
160 227
334 324 316 261
326
193 289
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MTD 1H11 1H12
226 151 165
102 161
222
352
189 192
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 MTD 1H11 1H12
81 97 178 192 178
219 266
89
198
-
400
800
1,200
1,600
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12
Naphtha Toluene Benzene Mixed Xylene
Aromatics $/Ton
MX-Naphtha
Toluene - Naphtha
Aromatics Price Movement
$/Ton
Naphtha
Aromatics Price Movement
BZ-Naphtha $/Ton $/Ton
13
• Aromatics spread slightly increased, driven by two
main factors:
(i) sustained demand for polyester
(ii) a drop in the supply resulting from Korean refineries’ maintenance shutdown.
Change Quantity Portfolio Unit Price FX
QoQ 5% 2% 6% 1%
YoY 15% 2% 6% 4%
Sales value : QoQ decreased by 1,569 MB 2%
(from volume 2,491 MB , price -4,060 MB)
Volume : increased by 0.5 MBBL (3%) mainly
from Diesel 0.3 MBBL, Olefins 0.1 MBBL
& Styrenics 0.1 MBBL
Price : decreased by 8.1 $/bbl (6%)
FX : from 31.14 $/THB to 31.43 $/THB
Sales value : YoY increased by 7,441 MB 11%
(from volume 8,760 MB , price -1,319 MB)
Volume : increased by 2.1 MBBL (13%) mainly
from Diesel 1 MBBL, Naphtha 0.6 MBBL
Price : decreased by 7 $/bbl (6%)
FX : from 30.41 $/THB to 31.43 $/THB
64,905 73,915 72,346
2Q11 1Q12 2Q12
Sales Revenue (MB)
14.98 16.51 17.03
2Q11 1Q12 2Q12
Sales Volume (MBBL)
Power & Utilities
Petrochem
Petroleum
Petrochem
Petroleum
79% 77%
78%
19% 21%
20% 1%
1% 1%
88% 87%
87%
12% 13%
13%
Sales Analysis
Revenue Structure
14
Singapore 53%
Malaysia 14%
Laos 7%
Switzerland 6%
Myanmar 5%
Asia 10%
Local 67%
Export 33%
64,905 MB
Australia 1%
Europe 1%
Middle East 2%
America 1%
Africa 0.4%
Singapore 65%
Malaysia 12%
Laos 7%
Local 65%
Export 35%
72,346 MB
Hong Kong 5%
Myanmar 4%
Asia 3%
Middle East 1%
North America 1% Australia
1% Europe 1% Other
1%
2Q12 Revenue from Sales
2Q12 Export to Asia 96% (increased by 7%)
2Q11 Revenue from Sales
Export Destinations
15
47% 49%
42%
43% 41%
43%
10% 10%
15%
10.62 10.53
7.09
2Q11 1Q12 2Q12
45% 46%
36%
38% 37%
39%
17% 17%
25%
41,659 44,494
27,375
2Q11 1Q12 2Q12
QoQ -33%
YoY -33%
QoQ -38%
YoY -34% 57
51
43
2Q11 1Q12 2Q12
Inventory Day (Days)
Petrochem
Petroleum
Crude
112
125
98
114
123
115
227 219
223
128
136
126
2Q11 1Q12 2Q12
Unit Price ($/bbl)
Petrochem
Petroleum
Crude
Total
Inventory Balance
Value (MB)
Volume (MBBL)
16
17
Statements of Financial Position
MB %
Assets 131,848 132,119 (271) (0.2)%
Cash and Mkt. Sec. 4,687 3,994 693 17%
AR 15,376 9,924 5,452 55%
Inventory 30,579 38,810 (8,232) (21)%
PPE & IP 72,861 71,711 1,150 2%
Other asset 8,345 7,679 666 9%
Liabilities & Equity 131,848 132,119 (271) (0.2)%
AP 15,633 17,408 (1,775) (10)%
IBD 37,502 28,531 8,971 31%
Other liabilities 6,728 10,258 (3,530) (34)%
Equity 71,985 75,922 (3,937) (5)%
31-Dec-11Change
30-Jun-12Unit : MB
Inventory
• 21% : Quantity of inventory 14% due to Crude 1.3 Mbbl
& FG 0.56 Mbbl while Prices Slightly .
(Inventory Crude Cost 2Q12 = 98 $/bbl, 4Q11 = 110 $/bbl)
Account payable
• 10% : Crude Oil Price 11 $/bbl (Jun’12=98 $/bbl ,
Dec’11=109 $/bbl) but Crude Oil Purchase Volume in Jun’12
0.16 MBBL vs Volume at the end of 2011
PPE & IP
• Asset Purchase (PRP , ABS6) 3,243 MB • Depreciation (2,049) MB • Losses from Impairment (44) MB
Account Receivable
•55% : Sales volume39% (2Q12=2.5 MT , 4Q11=1.8 MT)
but product prices 2% (Jun’12= 861 $/Ton, Dec’11=876 $/Ton)
Cash and ST investment 1H12
• From Operation (1,779) MB • Investing & S/T investment (4,624) MB • Financing 7,096 MB 693 MB
IBD
•31% : Loan Drawdown 3,700 MB, revolving $ 75 M,
additional Short-term Debt 3,891 MB, Loan Repayment 1,000 MB
17
Debt Portfolio
ST
Loan
14%
LT
Loan
40%
Bond
(USD)
20%
Bond
(THB)
26% ST Loan 5,232
LT Loan 15,045
Bond (USD) 7,585
Bond (THB) 9,640
Total 37,502
Debt (MB)
Net Debt/Equity
Debt Profile
F X.USD/THB = 31.97
Float 49 THB 73
Fixed 51 USD 27
Currency (%) Interest Rate (%)
24,492 32,963 32,271
4,843
7,555 5,232
6,359 4,590 4,687
22,976 35,928 32,816
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2Q11 1Q12 2Q12
Long term Short term Cash & S/T investment Net Debt
40,518
29,335
37,502
MB
2Q11 1Q12 2Q12
Cost of Debt 5.40% 5.38% 5.37%
Net Debt = 32,816 MB
2Q12 Debt Structure
0.29
0.47 0.46
2Q11 1Q12 2Q12
< 1.0x
“Baa3” Stable outlook
Credit Ratings
“BBB-” Stable outlook
“A- (tha)” Stable outlook
18
I. 2Q12 Highlights
II. Operation & Financial Performance
III. Industry Outlook
IV. Near-term Phoenix Projects Update
AGENDA
19
Global Oil Demand
Source: IEA oil market report 13 Jun12
• The growth of global oil demand is
forecasted to be 0.82 mb/d in 2012,
contributing to higher oil demand of 89.9
mb/d on average relative to that of 2011.
• Rising oil demand is due to
Resurgent OECD Pacific demand
supported by the demand from
power sector in Japan and
non‐OECD stockpiling.
A rise in seasonal demand
attributed to refinery maintenance
winding down
Global crude runs rising from 74.3 mb/d in 2Q12 to 75.9 mb/d in 3Q12.
20
Global Oil Supply
Source: IEA oil market report 13 Jun12
• Global oil supply rose by 0.2 mb/d to 91.1
mb/d in May.
• OPEC crude in 2H12 was around 1 mb/d
higher than 1H12 level,30.9 mb/d.
• However, an upcoming reduction in oil supply
is expected due to seasonal North Sea
maintenance forecasted to reduce output by
260 kb/d in 3Q12, and built in hurricane
outages for the United States and Mexico
21
Global Product Demand
• The global demand for petroleum product is
expected to be stronger in the second half of
2012, because of
Considerably lower commercial distillate
stocks in Europe and the US combined are
expected
Gas oil demand contributed from Saudi
Arabia due to Ramadan
Expectation of high usage of oil in electric
power generation in Japan at least until Q1
2013
22
PE Outlook
• HDPE growth is expected to grow at above GDP.
• HDPE can compete with PVC for applications in the pipe grade.
• China will remain a huge importer despite increased its internal supply.
23
PP Outlook
• Strong demand growth rates come from
developing country.
• NE Asia, which includes China, has
become the largest PP market, with an
enviable growth rate 6%
• The Indian grew at an outstanding rate
close to 10%
• Southeast Asia has an outstanding
strength as it is manufacturer and export
hub of the world.
• PP can be used in various applications
up from luxury to commodity.
• Low cost / Light weight PP supports city
car production and development of bio-
plastic based on PP of Japanese car
maker. 24
ABS and PS Outlook
• PS demand will come from the product
downsizing and down-gauging.
• New applications like XPS (extruded
polystyrene) may flourish as building
construction recovers.
• World ABS market continues to grow
ahead of GDP, at the rate ~5% per year
over the next 5 years.
• The fastest growing ABS sectors are
mainly from appliances, electronics &
electrical and automotive market.
25
I. 2Q12 Highlights
II. Operation & Financial Performance
III. Industry Outlook
IV. Near-term Phoenix Projects Update
AGENDA
26
TIME
PRP Project: 100% Completion
COST
(Propylene Booster)
Timeline for 1. EHIA approval : Sep 11 2. DIW approval : Aug 12 3. MC completion : June 12 4. Commissioning : July 12 5. COD : September 2012
Status Approved • In progress • In progress • In progress • In progress
Achievement
SCOPE
• New Propylene plant with increasing capacity 100 KTA. by Metathesis technology
2,000,000 Man Hours without
Loss Time Injury (LTI)
Within Budget
27
Pre-Phoenix Projects: PRP Progress
# 8 Petroleum
quality improvement to clean fuel and green
growth development
Project Description: Upgrading Gasoline to be EURO IV spec.
Capacity Expansion: None.
CAPEX : 49 M$ / Benefits: 13 M$/yr
GHU Plant construction
Gasoline Euro IV (GHU)
Diesel Euro IV: 1Q13 (on schedule) EIA approval since Sept 11
During construction process
Pipeline installation permission
DOH & CHERNGNERN SDAO: APPROVED
MD / RID / IEAT : In Progress
Benefit from swap in 2Q12: 6.31 M$
PTTGC Multi-Product Pipeline
Euro IV Diesel IRPC
Gasoline Euro IV (GHU):
Started Up : 10 Feb 12
Operation with approx 80-90 % Capacity
Benefit in 2Q12 : 4.44 M$ GHU Plant
GHU Project: 100% Completion
Multi-pipeline for upgrading HSD Project: 60.4% Progress
28
Phoenix Projects: EURO IV Project Progress
25%
50%
75%
100%
0% # 7 Lube group 1
specialty product
EBIT 33 M$/yr CAPEX: 31 M$
TDAE
50,000 TPA TDAE
22,000 TPA
150-BS
82,000 TPA
Project Description: High Value Added Lube specialty product, TDAE & Bright Stock
Capacity Expansion: TDAE 28 KTA and 150-BS 38 KTA increasing.
Benefits: 33 M$/yr
150-BS
120,000 TPA
Timeline for
1. MC Completion: Jun 12
2. Commissioning : July 12
3. COD : Aug 12
Status •In Progress
•In Progress
•On Plan
Project Progress : 98.89 %
29
Phoenix Projects: Lube Group I Project Progress
30
Q&A
31
Thank You
Investor Relations Contact: [email protected]
Tel. 02-649-7380, Fax. 02-649-7379
Presentation is available at
www.irpc.co.th
Click “Presentations”
This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use by prospective investors / analysts in
the proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. By accepting this material each
recipient agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability for any representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation.
The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the Information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each
recipient of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.