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Analyst Call Preliminary figures Q4 2017 GEA GROUP, JANUARY 24, 2018

Analyst Call - GEA engineering for a better world GEA Analyst Call pres... · • Supply chain management among others to ... content of each various container types. pack, inline

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Page 1: Analyst Call - GEA engineering for a better world GEA Analyst Call pres... · • Supply chain management among others to ... content of each various container types. pack, inline

Analyst Call

Preliminary figures Q4 2017

GEA GROUP, JANUARY 24, 2018

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This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may include, in

particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations,

prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. Statements with respect to the

future are characterized by the use of words such as "expect", "intend", "plan", "anticipate", "believe",

"estimate" and similar terms. Forward-looking statements are based on our current assumptions and

forecasts. These statements naturally entail risks and uncertainties, which may cause the actual results

of operations, financial position or performance to diverge materially from the estimates given here.

Factors that could cause such a divergence include, inter alia, changes in the economic and business

environment, fluctuations in exchange rates and interest rates, launches of competing products, poor

acceptance of new products or services, and changes in business strategy. Given these uncertainties,

readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation

to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

Disclaimer

2 GEA Conference Call Presentation January 24, 2018

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1. Preliminary figures Q4 / FY 2017

2. Outlook FY 2018

3

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134 130

86 78

223 224

0 €m

50 €m

100 €m

150 €m

200 €m

250 €m

Q4 16 Q4 17

BA Equipment BA Solutions

634 653

712 706

1.293 1.307

0 €m

500 €m

1.000 €m

1.500 €m

Q4 16 Q4 17

BA Equipment BA Solutions

598 658

685 717

1.223 1.316

0 €m

500 €m

1.000 €m

1.500 €m

Q4 16 Q4 17

BA Equipment BA Solutions

Preliminary key figures and change YoY Q4 2017

4 GEA Conference Call Presentation

1. Excluding bottling charges of €9m in Q4 16 and -€2m in Q4 17; 2. Adjusted = before currency translation and structural effects Note: Not audited and excl. Pavan

Order Intake

Operating EBITDA Margin1 Operating EBITDA1

Sales

Please note that the difference between the sum of the BAs and the Group is explained by

consolidation/others

Δ +7.6%

adjusted2 +10.6%

+4.7%

+10.0%

Δ +1.1%

adjusted2 +4.6%

-0.9%

+3.0%

Δ +0.1%

adjusted2 +5.3%Q4 16 Q4 17 Δ YoY

BA Equipment 21.1% 19.9% -123 bps

BA Solutions 12.0% 11.1% -91 bps

GEA Group 17.3% 17.1% -17 bps

+1.8%

Highest Q4

order intake

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384 390

196 181

579 585

0 €m

200 €m

400 €m

600 €m

Q4 16 Q4 17

BA Equipment BA Solutions

2.262 2.346

2.426 2.437

4.492 4.580

0 €m

1.000 €m

2.000 €m

3.000 €m

4.000 €m

5.000 €m

Q4 16 Q4 17

BA Equipment BA Solutions

2.347 2.478

2.535 2.484

4.674 4.750

0 €m

1.000 €m

2.000 €m

3.000 €m

4.000 €m

5.000 €m

Q4 16 Q4 17

BA Equipment BA Solutions

Preliminary key figures and change YoY FY 2017

5 GEA Conference Call Presentation

1. Excluding bottling charges of €13m in FY 16 and €20m in FY 17; 2. Adjusted = before currency translation and structural effects Note: Not audited and excl. Pavan

Order Intake

Operating EBITDA Margin1 Operating EBITDA1

Sales

Please note that the difference between the sum of the BAs and the Group is explained by

consolidation/others

adjusted2 +1.7%

-2.0%

+5.6%

adjusted2 +2.5%

Δ +1.6% Δ +2.0%

+0.5%

+3.7%

Δ +1.0%

adjusted2 -0.5%FY 16 FY 17 Δ YoY

BA Equipment 17.0% 16.6% -35 bps

BA Solutions 8.1% 7.4% -67 bps

GEA Group 12.9% 12.8% -13 bps

FY 16 FY 17

FY 16 FY 17

FY 16 FY 17

+1.5%

Highest FY

order intake

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P&L projection from July vs. actual figures H2 2017

6 GEA Conference Call Presentation

preliminary numbers rounded [EUR m]

Projected H2 2017

as per Q2 2017

(lower case)

Sales

Op. EBITDA2 “pre” (before bottling extra costs)

in % of sales

2,470 +3.2% yoy

374 15.1%

Actual H2 2017

(prelim.)

2,440 +1.9% yoy

358 14.7%

Comments on variance

January 24, 2018

Op. EBITDA2 “post” (after bottling extra costs)

in % of sales

354 14.3%

346 14.2%

Adverse FX impact of mid

double-digit million-euro

FX translation: -€5m

No further bottling charges

expected in 2018

Gross margin (before bottling extra costs)

in % of sales

784 31.7%

767 31.4%

Mix effect of ca. -9 EURm

Volume effect of ca. -9 EURm

Overhead (incl. net other income (expenses), FX

impact & financial result, adj. for D&A, PPA)

(410)1 (408)1 Delta of +2 EURm

1. Includes income from divesting real estate of +14 EURm

2. For a definition of operating EBITDA, see p. 206 of the company’s 2016 Annual Report

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Deep-dive: FX impact

7 GEA Conference Call Presentation January 24, 2018

ca.

420

ca.

230

NAM

APAC

LAM

Sales streams impacted by FX Headwind from EUR appreciation

Export sales1, LTM Nov 2017 in EURm

EUR/USD +2.0%

EUR/CNY +3.7%

ca.

170

EUR

+13.8%

+6.6%

Ø

2017 vs. 2016

Spot end Dec

2017 vs. 2016

26%

15%

Share of export

sales1 LTM Nov 17

Example EUR/USD FX effect Separator spare part produced in Europe was sold e.g. for

end of Dec 2016 for EUR 1,000 to e.g. Germany

end of Dec 2016 for ca. USD 1,054 to e.g. USA

end of Dec 2017 for ca. USD 1,190 to e.g. USA

GEA margin pressure

Customer postpones volume pressure

GEA manages to pass price increase to customer 1. Sales trade flows from Euro countries to major non-Euro countries (€820M)

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Update on share buyback

8 GEA Conference Call Presentation January 24, 2018

97% of EUR 450m spent as of January 19, 2018

Completion expected by end of February 2018

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1. Preliminary figures Q4 / FY 2017

2. Outlook FY 2018

9

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First indications for 2018

10 GEA Conference Call Presentation January 24, 2018

Sales organically

about 2017 level (excluding acquisitions since January 2017)

Op. EBITDA range

EUR 590m to EUR 640m (at end of Dec 2017 FX rates)

Op. EBITDA1

Acquisitions since January

2017 will add

about EUR 190m

1. For a definition of operating EBITDA, see p. 206 of the company’s 2016 Annual Report

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Deep-dive: First indications for 2018

11 GEA Conference Call Presentation January 24, 2018

ca. 50

ca. 75

Lower end

guidance op.

EBITDA 2018

ca. 590

M&A and efficiency

initiatives esp. in

pricing & supply

chain

FX,

IT cloud,

personnel cost

increase,

real estate

divestment FY 17

High end guidance

op. EBITDA 2018

ca. 640

Volume, mix &

further efficiency

ca. -70

Starting point op.

EBITDA 2017 (adj.)

ca. 585

in EURm

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GEA’s topline has been strongly affected by the dairy recession – dairy processing yet to recover

12 GEA Conference Call Presentation

FY 15 FY 14 FY 13

ca. -12%

FY 17 FY 16

Dairy Processing Solutions (BA-S)

Development since 2013

Order Intake Dairy Processing Solutions

OI, Dairy Processing Solutions only

January 24, 2018

Deep-dive 2017 vs. 2016

Order Intake excl. Dairy Processing Solutions

OI, GEA Group excl. Dairy Processing Solutions

+1.6%

FY 17 FY 16

Dairy Processing Solutions (BA-S)

GEA Group excl. Dairy Processing Solutions (BA-S)

ca. -16%

ca. +5%

YoY growth

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“Growth slowing down

across categories”

“…economic conditions will remain

volatile & uncertain.., with persis-

tently fragile consumer trends”

“Food and beverage: Long-

run prospects for the sub-

sector are positive… However, it

can be cyclical, and our analysts

are forecasting food & beverage

organic sales growth close to an

all-time low”

“…there have hardly

been any productivity

increases in the recent years,

mainly due to salary increases”

“Resilient real internal

growth in an environ-

ment of weak consumer demand

(Q1’16-Q3’17)” “.. Coffee clearly

growth driver (5% CAGR 2013-16)”

External view on market sentiment (selected quotes)

13 January 24, 2018

Customers Industry Analysts

Production growth of 3% for 2017

and 2018

Essential Dairy & Plant-based with -2%

negative growth YTD 2017

Food processing machinery and

packaging machinery +4% for 2018

Target 2020: 4%-5% L4L sales growth

(packaged goods CAGR 0,8%-2,8%)

“Growth in the global Food

& Beverage industry has

been slowing to 1% over 2011-

2016… ingredients should outstrip

this with growth of 4-5%.”

1%-2% growth in 2017 for Europe

& US Food & HPC manufacturers

0% CAGR for 2017-2020 (Capex)

2,6% organic growth for 2017

Target 2020: Mid-single digit growth Packaged foods market value

growth 3%-4% midterm

GEA Conference Call Presentation

Source: Danone Q3 2017 release; Nestlé Q3 2017 release; ; Nestlé Investor Seminar 2017; VDMA Prognosespiegel Nov 2017; Goldman Sachs „GS Capex Tracker“ Oct 2017;

Deutsche Bank Report, „Ingredients for Beginners“ Dec 2017

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Assumptions behind first indication for 2018

14 GEA Conference Call Presentation January 24, 2018

THREATS OPPORTUNITIES

• Continued market weakness in Dairy

Processing and Beverages

• Continued volatility of milk price

• Adverse FX impacts

• Pricing pressure in selected markets

with slow down in investment activities

• Low unemployment rate causing

difficulties in hiring skilled workforce

• Prospects of improved investment climate in

the US in the wake of tax cut

• Positive development in other markets

partially offsetting weakness in Dairy

Processing and Beverages

• Improvement potential from strategic

initiatives

• Supply chain management among others to

reduce FX exposure (e.g. local sourcing)

• Further leverage of GEA innovation strength

and leading market position

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GEA OxyCheck

Innovation – portfolio enrichment through leading technologies (1/2)

15 GEA Conference Call Presentation January 24, 2018

GEA OxyCheck the first system

able to measure the oxygen

content of each pack, inline in a

packaging machine. Contact free

and without destroying the

package

Pavan Extrusion

Pavan offers the widest range of solutions for the production of all kinds of pasta

It also provides dies, cutting systems, die washing equipment and packaging lines.

VIPOLL All-in-One

monoblock filler

New VIPOLL All-in-One mono-

block filler can be adapted to

various container types. It offers

customers the added value of

multifunctional beverage lines

that rapidly switch between bottle,

can and PET filling.

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ConsiGma for continuous

processing

Innovation – portfolio enrichment through leading technologies (2/2)

16 GEA Conference Call Presentation January 24, 2018

ConsiGma, a multipurpose

platform designed to transfer

powder into coated tablets in

development, pilot, clinical or other

volumes in a single compact unit,

dosing and mixing, all in one

line.

Super High Yield

Extraction (SHYE)

SHYE is maximizing instant

coffee yield by up to 70 %. The

extraction process offers higher

flavor quality resulting in

enhanced taste of instant coffee

and better utilization.

Monobox

GEA Monobox provides the

greatest advantages in automated

milking, accommodating up to 70

cows per box. It allows for an

individualized approach to

maximizing a farm’s operational

efficiency.

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Capital Markets Day March 12, 2018

17 GEA Conference Call Presentation January 24, 2018

OneGEA Transformation

Further strategic initiatives

Mid-term financial outlook

Status of OneGEA transformation program and update on level of

implementation of steering systems and IT excellence projects

Outline of ongoing projects such as Global Manufacturing Footprint

and Procurement but also review of further strategic initiatives

concerning topline growth, service, portfolio and further efficiencies

in particular SG&A

New mid-term financial outlook

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gea.com