ANALYSIS OF COMMON AND INDEPENDENT SUIT DESIGNSRichard Rhodes

Background Vision for Space Exploration

Lower Earth Orbit (LEO) for 2014 Man on the moon by 2020

Space Suit Needs Suit for Launch, Entry, and Abort (LEA)

Light suit that is mobile and comfortable Suit for microgravity and surface

extravehicular activities (EVA) Life support, thermal regulation, control, and

surface mobility

20212020

LEA Development

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

EVA Development2018 2019

LEA production and operationsEVA production and operations

2022 2023 2024 ….. 2030

Opportunity to Reduce Lifecycle Costs

Opportunity Common Components - Any components

that are reused or shared between the two suits. Provides benefits to development, production, and operations

Affects of Commonality on Development Penalty of common development on LEA

suit Penalty of component integration on EVA

suit50%

Common

Unique A

Unique B

Penalty of Common Development (25%)

Penalty of Common Integration (10%)

Independent Cost

Opportunity to Reduce Lifecycle Costs

Affects of Commonality on Production Penalty of excess capability (10%) Economies of scale Learning curve

Operations Cost Reduced 30%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 200

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.1

Unit Cost vs Time

Unit Cost AUnit Cost BInd Cost AInd Cost B

Time (years)

Uni

t Co

st (

$)

Political Uncertainty Resources could be pulled away from exploration

Space Shuttle Extension (0, 2, 4 year extensions) 109th Congress voted on NASA programs 83 times, of

those 47 failed (56%) same percentage is used for possibility of shuttle not being extended

Exponential curve for extension of 2 and 4 years International Space Station Extension/Exploration

Cancellation (0, 2, 14 year extension) Vision for space exploration passed by 81%, last ISS

funding bill passed by 61%. Possibility of ISS extension/Exploration cancellation is in between

Exponential curve for extension of 2 and 14 years

Decision Tree Lifecycle Cost

400 500 600 700 800 900 10000

0.20.40.60.8

11.2

Independent vs Common Designs

In-de-pen-dentCommonInd Aver-age

Net Present Value (Cost, $millions)

Prob

abili

ty($, million) Independent Common Better?ENPV $832 $788 CommonMinimum NPV $492 $522 IndependentMaximum NPV $1,025 $950 CommonInitial CAPEX $300 $323 IndependentNPV/CAPEX $2.77 $2.44 Common

Decision Tree Cost/Suit

560 580 600 620 640 660 6800

0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

Independent vs. Common Design VARG

IndependentCommonInd. Ave.Comm. Ave.

Cost per Suit ($thou/suit)

Prob

abili

ty

Lattice Development Uncertainty

Demand of EVA suits Assumptions

Demand would start at 32 per year with no expected growth EVA suits have a benefit of $2.5 million, LEA of $640,000 Development of EVA suits will begin at the end of year 5 Common LEA suits are more expensive to produce, but EVA

suits have cheaper fixed costs and production costs

0.00 200.00 400.00 600.000.0000.0500.1000.1500.2000.2500.300

PDF for Demand of EVA Space Suit

PDF

Demand (suits/year)

Prob

abili

ty

Lattice Development Options

Contractor Options Opt out of EVA suit production To begin production of EVA suit early

Independent NPV=-$82million

Common NPV=-$26million

Option to Start EVA Production Early

Independent NPV = -$24

million Value = $58

million Common

NPV = -$12 million

Value =$15 million

Option to Opt out of EVA Production

The VARG for the option to opt out is biased against the Common option because the VARG only covers the first 6 years and you do not begin getting benefits of commonality until year 6

25,00020,00015,00010,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,00015,00020,00025,0000

0.20.40.60.8

11.2

Independent Suit and the Option to Quit Early VARG

InflexFlex

NPV

Cum

ulat

ive

Prob

abili

ty

Option to Start EVA Production Early

Independent NPV = -$82

million Benefit = $0

Common NPV = -$17

million Benefit =

$10 million