Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 1 Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid La economía de agua de riego 24 Septiembre 2008 [email protected]

Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 1

Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

La economía de agua de riego

24 Septiembre 2008

[email protected]


PESETA (JRC)

Adaptation (DG Agri)

PICCMAT (6th FP)

CIRCE (6th FP)

SWAP (6th FP)

ClimateCost (7th FP)

MEDROPLAN (EuropeAid, MEDA Water)


• For the last 10,000 years we have been living in a remarkable stable climate that allowed the whole of the human development to take place

• In all that time, though the medieval warming and the Little Ice Age, there was only a variation of 1ºC

• Now we see the potential for sudden change of between 2 and 6ºC – We just don’t know what the world is like at those temperatures, we have no idea if we can live in it

Adapted from: Robert Corell, The Guardian, Oct 2007


Production in a changing climate

• Objective: discussion

1. Critical thinking: What does climate change mean for production?

– Complex outlook, multiple dimensions – Challenges and opportunities

2. Solutions: What is the best future we can hope for?

– Focus on policy integration


Climate impacts

Climate dynamics

Societaldynamics

f

Rethinking climate impacts

Source: CIRCE


Climate dynamics Observed and projected warming in the EU

Source: Stott et al. 2004, Hadley Centre


More extreme eventsProjected changes in drought risk (%)

under the A1B MPI 2070-2100 scenario


Annual Streamflow in Bolarque and SPI

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

19

11

/12

19

19

/20

19

27

/28

19

35

/36

19

43

/44

19

51

/52

19

59

/60

19

67

/68

19

75

/76

19

83

/84

19

91

/92

19

99

/00

Hm

3

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

SP

I (2

4 m

on

ths

)

Ann Inflow SPI (24) Lineal (Ann Inflow)

Source: Iglesias et al., 2007


Changes in water supply and demand with climate change

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

% c

han

ge

fro

m b

asel

ine

Irrigation demand Rservoir water inflow Available water resources

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

# 1. Scenarios:

Water supply and demand

#

#

#

#

#

Mediterra

nean Sea

France

Po

rtu

gal

Atlantic

Ocean

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

910

11

12

#

#

#

#

#

Mediterra

nean Sea

France

Po

rtu

gal

Atlantic

Ocean

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

910

11

12

Iglesias et al. 2008


Climate impacts

Climate dynamics

Societaldynamics

f


Source: CIRCE


Agricultural exports and imports (2006)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

EU USA China RoW

Mill

ion

t

Exports Imports

Global scale


# 2. Local realities (vulnerabilities)


Local realities (vulnerabilities)


Climate impacts

Climate dynamics

Societaldynamics

f


Source: CIRCE

Challenges and opportunities


Challenges and opportunitiesRegional disparities

Crop yield changes under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and for the ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 scenario for the 2020s compared to baseline

(Iglesias et al. 2007)


Boreal

• Expansion of areas and growing season• Expansion of weeds, pests, diseases• Risk of soil structure loss


Atlantic NAtlantic C

• Sea level rise • Floods, water-

logging• Summer drought• Environmental

policy determines the opportunities


# 3. Useful knowledgeThe role of the human capital, Gary Becker (Nobel Price, 1992)

Fuente: OECDhttp://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/0/9/1916629.pdf

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/0/9/1916629.pdf







Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 19Bordeaux red: Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet franc, Merlot, Petit Verdot, Carménère, Malbec

Atlantic S

• Decline of high quality crops

• Regulations may limit opportunities


Balance Carbono en ChampagneBalance Carbono en Champagne


Continental NContinental S

• Heat stress and drought in summer (e.g., 2007)

• Floods, water-logging• Environmental degradation• New crops, energy crops


# 4. Flexible risk management

• The past is not a reliable indicator of the future


Alpine

• Glacier melt• Modification of the hydrological

regime with large implications for soil erosion, water availability, etc

• Further stress to highly vulnerable areas


Med NMed S

• Water scarcity and drought• Conflicts among water

users• Vulnerability of the complex

interactions of agriculture-ecosystems

• Limitations of rural development


The Stern Review of the Economics of

Climate Change (Stern et al, 2006)• Argues that “the overall costs and risks of

climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP1 each year”

• Challenged by many economists with large working experience in climate change (Tol, 2007). Ignores and contradicts numerous unquestionable results (Nicholls and Tol, 2005; Nordhaus, 2006; Sachs, 2001; Fankhauser and Tol, 2005)


Change value of GDP 2080s (agriculture shock)

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

Rest of EU Med North Med South ROW% c

hang

e

HadCM3 A2 HadCM3 B2 ECHAM A2 ECHAM B2

Source: Iglesias et al., 2007


Production in a changing climate

• Objective: discussion

1. Critical thinking: What does climate change mean for production?

– Complex outlook, multiple dimensions – Challenges and opportunities

2. Solutions: What is the best future we can hope for?

– Focus on policy integration


Climate impacts

Climate dynamics

Societaldynamics

f


Source: CIRCE


• Kyoto protocol

• Lisbon strategy

• SD strategy

• EU White Paper on Adaptation

• CAP – WFD – Nitrates D – Energy D

• Local initiatives (early stages, dissemination, awareness building)

Existing set of policies


Building adaptive capacity

Awareness raising

Research (spatial and time dimension)

Knowledge transfer

Risk management

Policy support in order to deliver adaptation actions


Building adaptive capacity

Delivering adaptation actions

Supported by policy

Strategic combination of the CC commitments of various policies

Technology, infrastructure

Changes in land use

Flexible resource management and efficiency


Role of RD (CAP)

A flexible framework

Axis 1Farm modernizationRestoring & preventionFarm advisory servicesTrainingAxis 2Agri-env measuresPayments linked to WFDAxis 3Diversification into non-agricultural activities

Leader


Natural resources dimension

Socialdimension

Technologicaldimension

Economicdimension

Climate policy index

Vulnerability

Climate change

Impacts

# 5. Understanding how may policy modify climate risks

Define strategic combination of the climate change commitments in the various policies

Source: CIRCE


• Values range from 0 to 1

• High values indicate that current policies decrease potential impacts (the system has increased adaptive capacity, is less vulnerable)

Source: CIRCE

Climate policy index

Algeria 0.31

Egypt 0.43

France 0.62

Israel 0.48

Italy 0.61

Libya 0.30

Morocco 0.40

Spain 0.55

Syria 0.49


Climate impacts on agriculture with different policies

HadCM3/HIRHAM B2 scenario for the period 2071-2100 (% yield change respect to baseline)

Agric output

Adaptation Policy Env (1)

Adaptation Farm (2)

Adaptation Policy Econ /Rural Dev (3)

Mediterranean Europe -50 to -25 1 0 to 20

(1) Adaptation with emphasis on water resources protection and urban development(2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private)(3) Adaptation with emphasis with protection of agricultural production and rural development Soure: Iglesias et al 2007


What is the best future

we can hope for?


Thinking more about …

1. Climate scenarios are not enough

2. Understanding of local vulnerabilities

3. Useful knowledge (involving practitioners, industry)

4. Moving towards a flexible, risk management

5. Understanding how policy modifies climate risks and opportunities

• Learning how to respond in the long term

• Learning how to avoid political crisis


Thanks for your attention!

[email protected]

Documents

Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 1 Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid La economía de agua de riego 24 Septiembre 2008 [email protected]