An introduction to the IMCORE climate change

projectDr Rhoda Ballinger

Topics to be considered:

• Introduction to IMCORE• The Severn Estuary IMCORE work programme• Progress update

1. Introduction to IMCORE

IMCORE: Innovative

Management of Europe’s Changing Coastal Resource

AIMS: • To promote a transnational,

innovative & sustainable approach to reducing the impacts of climate change on coastal resources

• To develop adaptation strategies for coastal sites across North West Europe

• To demonstrate the effectiveness of various approaches to climate change adaptation including:

– High tech visualisation techniques– Futures scenario building

IMCORE partners

• Interreg IVb North West Europe project

• Partners:– Universities; local

authorities; coastal networks

– Builds on the COREPOINT Expert Couplets & work

IMCORE outputs

• Multimedia Distance Learning Tool – Visualisation tool kit – Related training material – Coastal management

data base

• Adaptive Management Strategies for each case study

2. Severn Estuary IMCORE work programme

Severn IMCORE activities

• SECCRAG: Science base• Stocktake of corporate

responses to climate change

• ‘Futures’ scenario building

• Education materials

SECCRAG: Science base

• Severn Citation Database development

• SECCRAG May workshop– Preliminary review of the

state of the science– Way forward proposed

• UKCP09 Review

Stocktake: Estuary Planning Review

• Phase I – Corporate Responses– How are planning bodies embedding climate change into

planning practices? • Phase II – Climate Change science base

– What climate change science do planning authorities use/want/need?

• Planners Workshop (Spring 2010)– Estuary-wide cohesion– Coordinated approaches to C.C. adaptation

‘Futures’ – Scenario building

• Structure how we can plan uncertainties

• Portray several different possible/desirable ‘futures’

• Enable multisectoral thinking ‘outside the box’

• Glamorgan University input

3. Preliminary findings

Science base: UKCP09 review

• Provides– Climatic trends to date– Climatic predictions to

2100– UK National scale

• possible to interrogate at local/regional levels

– Low, medium and high emissions scenarios

• http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/ Changes in seasonal means (C)

1960-90 to 2070 - 2100

UKCP09 Sea level rise

• Sea level around UK rose by 1mm/yr during 20th Century• Rate increased during 1990s and 2000s• Phillips (2009) prediction: 2.4mm/yr for Bristol Channel

Sea Level Rise Plot for ChepstowSea Level Data12km Grid

UKCP09 Storm surge data

• Small increase in storm surge ht (0.8mm/yr) – LESS than predictions in UKCP02• Does not include changes in sea level• Note wave height changes:

– small increase in winter significant wave height – winter max wave height is more uncertain

Storm Surge Data20km Grid

50 yr trend in Surge Return Level

mm/yr

Planning Review:Stocktake of Severn-side plans & policies

Main Categories Sub Categories

Climate Change Mitigation considerations (other than C02)Adaptation considerationsCarbon management Supplementary Planning Guidance/ DocumentsOther policies

Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk

Management

Development in flood risk areasDevelopment exacerbating floodingDevelopment and coastal erosionRef. to Shoreline Management PlansSupplementary Planning Guidance/ DocumentsOther policies

Estuary Management Ref. to Severn Estuary PartnershipRef. to Severn Estuary Strategy &/or other estuary wide initiativesSupplementary Planning Guidance/ DocumentsOther policies

Welsh Planning Bodies / Groups English Planning Bodies

Bridgend County Borough Council Forest of Dean District Council

Vale of Glamorgan Council Stroud District Council

Cardiff City Council Tewkesbury Borough Council

Newport City Council Gloucester City Council

Monmouthshire County Council Gloucestershire County Council

South East Wales Strategic Planning Group Bristol City Council

North Somerset District Council

Sedgemoor District Council

West Somerset District Council

Somerset County Council

South West Regional Development Agency

Tewkesbury

Borough Council

Tewkesbury

Borough Council

Initial findings

• Local Authorities play a key role in preparing for climate change

(Service Providers, Corporate Managers, Community Leaders)

• All signed up to Nottingham / Welsh Declaration on Climate Change & Energy Efficiency

• 6 authorities adopted climate change strategies (+ 2 underway)

• No real sense of Severn Estuary or estuary cohesion

Policy Trends

• Climate change – explicit policies being developed in emerging plans

• Flood risk – many policies in adopted and emerging plans (15 of 17)

• Coastal zone – dropping off of policies within emerging plans

• Shoreline Management Plans – few references in adopted plans (5 of 17); none in emerging plans

• Severn Estuary Strategy – few references in adopted plans (4 of 17); none in emerging plans

4. Final comments

IMCORE: future development

• Work in progress

• Exciting opportunities for partnership working through IMCORE

e.g. Climate Change Adaptation – The Gloucestershire Approach

(National Indicator (NI) 188 – Planning to adapt to climate change)

• 2010 events– SECRRAG– Planners’ meeting– Futures workshop– Beacons Schools events

Dr Rhoda BallingerBallingerRC@Cf.ac.uk

IMCORE:http://imcore.eu/