An International Survey of Gun Laws and Violent Crime: The Republic of Ireland, Jamaica, Great Britain, Australia, and Canada

An International Survey of Gun Laws and Violent Crime:

The Republic of Ireland,

Jamaica, Great Britain,

Australia, and Canada

American Society of Criminology

Dr. Gary A Mauser

Professor

Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies

Faculty of Business Administration

Simon Fraser University

Burnaby, BC, Canada

Presented to the Annual Meeting of the American Society of Criminology

Renaissance Hotel, Nashville, Tennessee

Saturday, 20 November 2004


Do British-style firearm regulations create a safer society?

• Gun laws are explicitly focused on controlling firearms, but

• The promise is that more restrictive gun laws will make society safer

• What is the international evidence?


An experiment in Brazil

• “[The gun law] is … to cut the spiral of violence.. ”– President Luiz da Silva, Brazil

• “The amnesty is the latest step in the [Brazil] government’s efforts to reduce violent crime.”– BBC report November 11, 2003


Promises in South Africa

• “South Africa hopes to make a dent in its frighteningly high crime rate with a new gun-control law that went into effect …”– Agence France Presse, National Post, July 3, 2004, A10

• “We believe that in the long term these laws will ultimately create a safer South Africa.”– Police spokesman Andrew Lesch, July 3, 2004


How can we measure improvements in public safety?

• Violent crime rates should drop

• Homicide rates should fall

• Not just criminal violence involving guns, but all criminal violence should fall

• Not just gun homicide, but total homicide


Which measures are the most appropriate?

• Gun deaths

• Gun violence

• Total violent crime– Robbery, armed robbery

• Total homicide (or murder)


Gun Death is a Red Herring

• Gun deaths are largely suicides• Suicide is not central to public safety

• Substitution effect is supported empirically• The removal of firearms or sharps must balance

liberty with personal safety


Gun death is mostly suicide

• 57% of gun deaths in the US are due to suicides

• 77% of gun deaths in Canada are due to suicides


Gun Violence

• It is relevant to ask whether gun laws cause gun violence to decrease (or increase),

• But …is this the best measure of public safety?

• A policy could reduce gun violence, but overall violent crime could still increase

• Gun crime is a small fraction of violent crime


Gun violence is a small fraction of violent crime

• Violent crime involving firearms:

• Canada (2003) 2%• England and Wales (2001) 1%• United States (1999) 7%


The most appropriate measures of public safety

• Homicide rate (or murder)

• Violent crime rate

• Robbery, armed robbery


International trends compared with trends in the US

• Countries that have introduced harsh general firearms laws in the 1990s:– Australia, Great Britain, and Canada

• Countries that completely banned firearms in the 1970s: – Republic of Ireland and Jamaica


A natural quasi-experiment

• The justice system in the United States has increasingly diverged from that in Britain or in the Commonwealth:– Arrest/conviction rates higher in the US,– Sentencing/punishment more severe, and– Citizens can carry concealed handguns.


Please Note

• To assess the effect of laws, we must compare trends across countries

• Direct comparison of international averages is inappropriate

• Police statistics, despite limitations, are the best international measure

Republic of Ireland

Gun prohibition and terrorism


Irish Gun Law

• Firearms prohibited and confiscated in 1972

• Concern with terrorism motivated this action as well as other police activities


Murders continue to increase

Murder Trend in the Republic of Ireland

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19451948195119541957196019631966196919721975197819811984198719901993199619992002Source: Garda Stochana Annual Reports

Number of Murder Incidents

Jamaica

The Gun Court and Drug Violence


Jamaican Gun Laws

• Gun court (1974 - 1982)– Firearms and ammunition prohibited– Mandatory life sentences– No bail, no jury trials for charges of possession

of firearm or ammunition crimes,

• Firearm ownership still prohibited


Murders continue to increase

Murder Trend in Jamaica

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000

Source: Allen, de Albuquerque, Diener & Crandall, Interpol, UN Survey

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

FrequencyRate per 100,000


Jamaican crime trends

Shootings and Murder in Jamaica

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000

Source: Professor A. Francis (2001)

rate per 100,000 population

Murder rate

Shooting rate


Violent crime continues to increase

Violent Crime Index for Jamaica (1970-2000)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000Years

Crime Index

Great Britain


Firearm laws have targeted legal owners

• The Firearms Amendment of 1988 was brought in following the Hungerford incident– Brought in shotgun licences

• The Firearms Amendment of 1997 was brought in after the Dunblane shooting– Prohibited and confiscated all handguns


Homicide increasing

Homicide Trends in United States and England & Wales

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003Source: FBI and Home Office

Homicide in E&W (per

100,000)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Homicide in US (per

100,000)

EnglandUS


Murders increasing in Scotland

Murder Trend in Scotland

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002

Source: Scottish Executive

Number of Incidents Recorded


Violent crime rates increasing

Violent Crime Rates in England and the United States

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001

Sources: Home Office and FBI, 2001

Offences per 100,000

population

E & W

US


Robbery is increasing but gun ownership

(legal) is decreasing Shotgun Certificates and Robberies,

England & Wales

0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000900000

1000000

19801982198419861988199019921994199619982000

Source: Greenwood, 2001

Shotgun Certificates

0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000100000

Total Robberies

Shotgun CertificatesTotal Robbery


Very few firearms used in homicide are legally held

Fig. 6. Legal Status of Firearm in Firearm Homicide, England and Wales, 1992-1998

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Organised crime Domestic Robbery Arguments Other Total

Source: Criminal Statistics, E&W, 2000,T 3D

Total Firearms

Legally held

Australia


Australian firearms legislation

• In 1997, government brought in sweeping firearms legislation following shootings in Tasmania

• Prohibited and confiscated semi-automatic long arms,

• Introduced strict new licencing and registration regulations


Homicide rates stable in Australia since 1997 gun law

Homicide Trends in Australia and United States

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

198919901991 199219931994 199519961997 199819992000 200120022003

Source: FBI and AIC

Homicide rate in Australia

(per 100,000)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Homicide rate in US (per

100,000)

AustraliaUS


Violent crime growing in Australia, but falling in the United States

Violent Crime Trends in the United States and Australia

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: AIC and FBI

(Australia) crimes recorded by

police

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

(United States) violent crime

per 100,000

AustraliaUnited States


Robbery rates are climbing in Australia but falling in the US

Robbery Trends in Australia and United States

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: AIC and FBI

Robbery rate in Australia (per

100,000)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Robbery rate in US (per

100,000)

Australia

US

Canada


Canadian firearms legislation

• 1977, introduced police screening for firearm purchasers

• 1991, stiffer rules for ownership, prohibited a variety of firearms, magazines

• 1995, owner licensing and universal firearm registration; banned many handguns


Homicide rates decreasing faster in the US than in Canada

Trends in US and Canadian Homicide Rates

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: FBI and Juristat

Canadian per 100,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

United States per 100,000

CDNUS


Violent crime rates are basically flat in Canada, but falling in the US

Violent Crime Trends in the United States and Canada

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003

Source: FBI and Juristat

per 100,000 population

CDN

US


Decline in firearm suicide rate does not reduce total suicide rate

Canadian Suicide Rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Source: Statistics Canada

Rates per 100,000 population

Total Suicide RateHanging Suicide RateFirearm Suicide Rate


1995 Canadian firearms regulations

• Total costs expected to reach $2 billion in 2004

• Originally estimated to cost $2 million• Corruption investigation ongoing• No visible effect on violent crime rates or

suicide rates


Summary

• No evidence that restrictive firearm regulations have reduced violent crime or homicide rates in Canada, Australia, Great Britain, Jamaica, or the Republic of Ireland

• Only the United States has witnessed a dramatic drop in criminal violence


Tentative conclusions

• British-style firearm laws and gun bans are ineffective and expensive

• Prediction: new gun laws will fail in both Brazil and South Africa to curb violent crime or homicide

Documents

An International Survey of Gun Laws and Violent Crime: The Republic of Ireland, Jamaica, Great Britain, Australia, and Canada