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7/28/2019 An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts
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Humanitys Choice (via M.I.T.): Inaction (No Policy) eliminates most of the uncertainty about
whether future warming will be catastrophic. Aggressive emissions reductions greatly improves
humanitys chances.
In this post, I will summarize what the recent scientific literature says are the key impacts we face in the coming
decades if we stay anywhere near our current emissions path. These include:
Staggeringly hi gh temperature ri se, especiall y over land some 10F over much of the United States
Permanent Dust Bowl condi tions over the U.S. Southwest and many other regions around the globe that
are heavily populated and/or heavil y farmed.
Sea level ri se of some 1 foot by 2050, then 4 to 6 feet (or more) by 2100, risi ng some 6 to 12 inches (or
more) each decade thereafter
Mass ive species loss on land and sea perhaps 50% or more of all biodiversi ty.
Unexpected i mpacts the fearsome unknown unknowns
An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts:
How We Know Inaction Is the Gravest Threat Humanity Faces
By Joe Romm on Oct 14, 2012 at 12:30 pm
CLIMATE PROGRESS
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Much more extreme weather
Food insecurity the increasing di fficulty of feeding 7 bill ion, then 8 bi ll ion, and then 9 bi ll ion people
in a world with an ever-worsening climate.
Myriad di rect heal th impacts
Remember, these will all be happening simultaneously and getting worse decade after decade . Equall y tragic, a
2009 NOAA-led study found the worst impacts would be largely irreversible for 1000 years.
The single biggest failure of messaging by climate scientists (until very recently) has been the failure to explain
to the public, opinion makers, and the media that business-as -usual warming resul ts in si multaneous, ever-
worsening impacts that, indivi duall y, are each beyond catastrophic, but combined are unimaginabll y horrifi c.
For these impacts, terms like global warming and climate change are essentially euphemisms. That is why I
have preferred the term Hell and High Water.
By virtue of their success in promoting doubt and inaction, the climate science deniers and disinformers have,
tragically and ironically, turned the worst-case scenario into business as usual.
Business as usual typical ly means continuing at recent growth rates of ca rbon dioxide emis si ons, which we
now know would likely take us to atmospheric concentrations of CO2 greater than 850 ppm if not above 1000
ppm (see U.S. media largely ignores latest warning from climate scientists: Recent observations confirm the
worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories a re being realis ed). Annual emis si ons now exceed 10 bi ll ion metric tons
of carbon (~37 billions metric tons of CO2). Emissions have been rising about 3% per year for the past decade.
What is less well understood is that even a very strong mitigation effort that kept carbon emissions this century
to 11 bill ion tons a year on average would still probably take us to 1000 ppm (A1FI scenario) a l ittle noted
conclusion of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (see Nature publishes my
climate analysi s a nd solution).
Until recently, the scientific community has spent little time modeling the impacts of a tripling (~830 ppm) orquadrupli ng (~1100 ppm) carbon dioxide concentrations from preindustria l levels . In part, I think, thats
because they never believed humanity would be so self-destructive as to ignore their science-based warnings
and s imply continue on its unsustainable path. In part, they lowbal led the difficul t-to-model amplifying
feedbacks in the carbon cycle.
So I pieced together those impacts from avail able studies and from discuss ions with leading cli mate scientists
for my 2006 book, Hell and High Water. But now the scientific literature on what we face is much richer as
cli mate scientists have sobered up to their painful role as modern-day Cassandras (see Lonnie Thompson on
why climatologists are speaking out: Virtually all of us are now convinced that global warming poses a clear and
present danger to civilization).
In a 2010 AAAS presentation, the late William R. Freudenburg of UC Santa Barbara discussed his research on
the Asymmetry of Scientifi c Chall enge: New scientific findings since the 2007 IPCC report are found to be more
than twenty times as likely to indicate that global climate disruption is worse than previously expected, rather
than not as bad as previously expected.
This post will review the latest findi ngs. It will serve as a foundation for a multi-part series that attempts to
clear up some of the confusion over the supposed high degree of uncertainty surrounding climate impacts.
That series wil l make clear that we have an unusually high degree of certainty around future climate impacts if
we stay anywhere near our current emissions path.2
http://climateprogress.org/2009/01/26/noaa-climate-change-irreversible-1000-years-drought-dust-bowls/http://climateprogress.org/2009/01/26/noaa-climate-change-irreversible-1000-years-drought-dust-bowls/http://climateprogress.org/2009/01/26/noaa-climate-change-irreversible-1000-years-drought-dust-bowls/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/03/17/203822/media-copenhagen-global-warming-impacts-worst-case-ipcc/http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/19/nature-publishes-my-climate-analysis-and-solution/http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/19/nature-publishes-my-climate-analysis-and-solution/http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/19/nature-publishes-my-climate-analysis-and-solution/http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/19/nature-publishes-my-climate-analysis-and-solution/http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/19/nature-publishes-my-climate-analysis-and-solution/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/12/13/207169/lonnie-thompson-climatologists-global-warming-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-civilization/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/12/13/207169/lonnie-thompson-climatologists-global-warming-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-civilization/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/12/13/207169/lonnie-thompson-climatologists-global-warming-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-civilization/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/12/13/207169/lonnie-thompson-climatologists-global-warming-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-civilization/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/12/13/207169/lonnie-thompson-climatologists-global-warming-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-civilization/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/12/13/207169/lonnie-thompson-climatologists-global-warming-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-civilization/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/12/13/207169/lonnie-thompson-climatologists-global-warming-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-civilization/http://aaas.confex.com/aaas/2010/webprogram/Paper1639.htmlhttp://aaas.confex.com/aaas/2010/webprogram/Paper1639.htmlhttp://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/12/13/207169/lonnie-thompson-climatologists-global-warming-a-clear-and-present-danger-to-civilization/http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/19/nature-publishes-my-climate-analysis-and-solution/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/03/17/203822/media-copenhagen-global-warming-impacts-worst-case-ipcc/http://climateprogress.org/2009/01/26/noaa-climate-change-irreversible-1000-years-drought-dust-bowls/7/28/2019 An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts
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This post an update covers more than 60 recent scientific studies along with numerous review pieces that
themselves each cover a large segment of the recent li terature. Please add l inks to more studies in the
comments.
We will see why inaction on climate change is incompatible with organized global community, is likely to be
beyond adaptation, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems & has a high probability of not being stable
(i.e. 4C [7F] would be an interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level), according
to Professor Kevin Anderson, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change in Britain (see here).
TEMPERATURE
Three of the best recent anal yses of what we are headed towards can be found here:
M.I.T. doubles its 2095 warming projection to 10F with 866 ppm and Arctic warming of 20F
Hadley Center: Catastrophic 5-7C warming by 2100 on current emissions path
Our hellish future: Definitive NOAA-led report on U.S. climate impacts warns of scorching 9 to 11F
warming over most of inland U.S. by 2090 with Kansas above 90F some 120 days a year and that
is nt the worst case, its business as us ual!
As Dr. Vicky Pope, Head of Cli mate Change Advice for the Met Offices Hadley Centre has explained:
where no action is taken to check the rise in Greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures
would most likely rise by more than 5C by the end of the century. This would lead to
si gnificant ris ks of severe and irreversi ble impacts.
That likely ris e corresponds to roughly 9F global ly and typica ll y 40% higher than that over inland mid-
latitudes (i.e. much of this country) or well over 10F.
[Note: The MIT rise is compared to 1980-1999 levels -- see studyhere). So you can add at least 0.5 C and 1.0F for
comparison with pre-industrial temperatures.]
Many other highly credible bodies share this conclusi on, including the once-staid and conservative
International Energy Agency (see IEAs Bombshell Warning: Were Headed Toward 11F Global Warming and
Delaying Action Is a False Economy).
Based on two studies in the last few years:
By centurys end, extreme temperatures of up to 122F would threaten most of the central,
southern, and western U.S. Even worse, Houston and Washington, DC could experience
temperatures exceeding 98F for some 60 days a year.Much of Arizona would be subjected to
temperatures of 105F or more for 98 days out of the year14 full weeks.
Yet that conclusi on is based on studies ofonly 700 ppm and 850 ppm, so it coul d get much hotter than that.
And the Hadley Center adds, By the 2090s close to one-fifth of the worlds popula tion wil l be exposed to ozone
levels well above the World Health Organization recommended safe-health level.
The MIT press release cal led for rapid a nd mass ive action to avoid this. Study co-author Ronald Pri nn, the co-
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director of the Joint Program and director of MITs Center for Global Change Science, said, it is important to
base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science. Theres no way the world can or should take
these risks. Duh!
MIT put together a good figure that compares the temperatures we risk on our current do-nothing path wi th
those we might expect if we took serious action [see top figure above]. Note that in the no poli cy case there is
an extremely high probabil ity of more than 4C (7F) global warming, and about a 25% chance of more than 6C
(11F) global warming.
In a 2010 presentation, Climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe has a figure of what 1000 ppm would mean (derived
from the 2010 NOAA-led report):
For more of the literature on U.S. warming, see Mother Nature is Just Getting Warmed Up.
The Hadley Center has a huge but useful figure which I will reproduce here:
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Note again that this is not the worst-case scenario. Its jus t business as usual out to 2100.
In the worst case, we get both continuing high levels of emissions and high carbon-cycle feedbacks. That
possibility was discussed here:
Royal Society Specia l I ss ue on Global Wa rming Details Helli sh Vis ion of 7F (4C) World Which We
5
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May Face in the 2060s! In such a 4C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded
in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural s ystems would la rgely be
exceeded throughout the world.
This would be the worst-case for the 2060s, but is in any case, close to business as usual for 2090s:
This is a staggering 13-18F over most of U.S. and 27F in the Arctic.
And there is every reason to believe that the earth would just keep getting hotter and hotter:
Science stunner On our current emiss ions path, CO2 levels i n 2100 wil l hi t levels last seen when the
Earth was 29F (16C) hotter: Paleocl imate data suggests CO2 may have at leas t twice the effect on
global temperatures than currently projected by computer models
Steve Easterbrooks post A first glimpse at model results for the next IPCC assessment shows that for the
scenario where there is 9F warming by 2100, you get another 7F warming by 2300 . Of course, folks that
arent motivated to avoid the civil ization-destroying 9F by 2100 wont be moved by whatever happens after
that.
DUST-BOWL-IFICATION
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Prolonged drought and Dust-bowli fication and i ts impact
on food securi ty may well be the impact that harms the
most number of people over the next few decades.
The journal Nature asked me to write a Comment piece on
this s ubject, The next dust bowl (subs. reqd), which is
basically a review of recent drought literature (full text
here).
As far back as 1990, sci entists a t NASAs Goddard Institute
of Space Studies projected that severe to extreme drought in
the United States, then happening every 20 years , could
become an every-other-year phenomenon by mid-century
[Rind et al., 1990].
A number of major recent studies have confirmed those
early findings . They warn that the Southwest, parts of the
Midwest, and many other highly populated parts of the
globe are likely headed toward sustained if not nearpermanent drought and Dust Bowl-like conditions if we stay anywhere near our current emissions path (see
USGS on Dust-Bowlification).
Back in October 2010, the National Center for Atmospheric Research published a complete literature
review, Drought under global warming: a review, (See NCAR analysis warns we ris k multiple,
devastating global droughts even on moderate emissions path).That study (now updated) makes clear
that Dust-Bowlification may be the most devastating impact of human-caused climate change. The
updated figure below makes clear just how self-destructive inaction would be:
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The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in the 2060s and 2090s in a moderate emissions path. A reading of -4
or below i s considered extreme drought.
The PDSI in the Great Plains during the Dust Bowl apparently spiked very briefly to -6, but otherwise rarely
exceeded -3 for the decade (see here). The study finds:
The large-scale pattern shown in Figure 11 [of which the figure above is part] appears to be a
robust response to increased GHGs. This is very al arming because if the drying is anything
resembli ng Figure 11, a very large population will be severely affected in the coming decades
over the whole United States, southern Europe, Southeast Asia, Brazil, Chile, Australia, and
most of Africa.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research notes By the end of the century, many populated areas, including
parts of the United States and much of he Mediterranean and Africa, could face readings in the range of -4 to
-10. Such decadal averages would be almost unprecedented.
For the record, the NCAR study merely models the IPCCs moderate A1B scenari o a tmospheric
concentrations of CO2 around 520 ppm in 2050 and 700 in 2100. Were currently headed much higher by
centurys end, but Im sure with an aggress ive program of energy R&D we could keep that to, say 800 ppm.
The UK Met Office came to a s imil ar view si x years ago in their anal ysis , projecting severe drought over8
http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~alfredo/bguan_final.pdfhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/full#fig11http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/full#fig11http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/full#fig11http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/full#fig11http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~alfredo/bguan_final.pdfhttp://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/DaiDrought.jpg7/28/2019 An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts
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40% of the Earths habited landmass by centurys end (see The Century of Drought).
A 2012 Nature Climate Change article, Increas ing drought under global warming i n observations and
models (subs. reqd, news release here) confirms these findings, concluding, the observed global
aridity changes up to 2010 are consistent with model predictions, which suggest severe and widespread
droughts in the next 3090 years over many land areas resulting from either decreased precipitation
and/or increased evaporation. In particul ar, the author has a s tunning warning for this country: The
U.S. may never again return to the relatively wet conditions experienced from 1977 to 1999.
The projection of extended if not endless drought for the US Southwest (and parts of the Great Plai ns) ha s been
studied a great deal:
In 2007, Science(subs. reqd)publis hed research that predicted a permanent drought by 2050
throughout the Southwest levels of aridity comparable to the 1930s Dust Bowl would stretch from
Kansa s to Cali fornia. And they were als o only looking at a 720 ppm case.
The unexpectedly rapid expansion of the tropical belt constitutes yet another signal that climate
change is occurring sooner than expected, noted one cli mate researcher in December 2007. A 2008
study led by NOAA noted, A poleward expansion of the tropics is likely to bring even drier conditions
to the U.S. Southwest, Mexico, Austra li a and parts of Africa and South America .
In December 2008, the Bush Administration quietly released a US Geologica l Survey stunner: SW faces
permanent drying by 2050, which found:
The serious hydrological changes and impacts known to have occurred in both historic and
prehistoric times over North America reflect large-scale changes in the climate system that
can develop i n a matter of years and, in the case of the more severe pas t megadroughts,
persis t for decades. Such hydrologica l changes fit the definition of abrupt change becausethey occur faster than the time scales needed for human and natural systems to adapt,
leading to substantial disruptions in those systems. In the Southwest, for example, the
models project a permanent drying by the mid-21st century that reaches the level of aridity
seen in historical droughts, and a quarter of the projections may reach this level of aridity
much earlier.
U.S. southwest could s ee a 60-year drought li ke that of 12th century only hotter this century:
An unprecedented combination of heat plus decades of drought could be in store for the
Southwest sometime this century, suggests new research from a University of Arizona-led
team.
The bottom li ne is , we could have a Medieval -style drought with even warmer
temperatures, [lead author Connie] Woodhouse said.
The literature makes clear future droughts will be fundamentally different from all previous droughts that
humanity has experienced because they will be very hot weather droughts (see Must-have PPT: The global -
change-type drought and the future of extreme weather).
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http://climateprogress.org/2006/10/04/the-century-of-drought/http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1633.htmlhttps://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/7434/dry-and-drierhttp://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/expanding-tropics-a-threat-to-millions-761326.htmlhttp://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/expanding-tropics-a-threat-to-millions-761326.htmlhttp://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/expanding-tropics-a-threat-to-millions-761326.htmlhttp://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/expanding-tropics-a-threat-to-millions-761326.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n1/full/ngeo.2007.38.htmlhttp://climateprogress.org/2008/12/16/us-geological-survey-stunner-sea-level-rise-in-2100-will-likely-substantially-exceed-ipcc-projections-sw-faces-permanent-drying-by-2050/http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/16/us-geological-survey-stunner-sea-level-rise-in-2100-will-likely-substantially-exceed-ipcc-projections-sw-faces-permanent-drying-by-2050/http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/16/us-geological-survey-stunner-sea-level-rise-in-2100-will-likely-substantially-exceed-ipcc-projections-sw-faces-permanent-drying-by-2050/http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/16/us-geological-survey-stunner-sea-level-rise-in-2100-will-likely-substantially-exceed-ipcc-projections-sw-faces-permanent-drying-by-2050/http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/14/southwest-drought-global-warmin/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/14/southwest-drought-global-warmin/http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/16/us-geological-survey-stunner-sea-level-rise-in-2100-will-likely-substantially-exceed-ipcc-projections-sw-faces-permanent-drying-by-2050/http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n1/full/ngeo.2007.38.htmlhttp://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/expanding-tropics-a-threat-to-millions-761326.htmlhttp://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/316/5828/1181https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/7434/dry-and-drierhttp://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1633.htmlhttp://climateprogress.org/2006/10/04/the-century-of-drought/7/28/2019 An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts
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A 2011 Environmental Research Letters article, Characterizing changes in drought risk for the United
States from climate change, comes to a similar conclusion as the NCAR study, Drought frequencies and
uncertainties in their projection tend to increase considerably over time and show a strong worsening
trend al ong higher greenhouse gas emis si ons s cenarios, s uggesting substantial benefits for greenhouse
gas emiss ions reductions. See especia ll y Figure 4C.
Another 2011 study, The Las t Drop: Cli mate Change and the Southwest Water Cri si s, that actuall y looks in
some detail at the scientific literature for just one region, finds that drought and reduced precipitation in the
U.S. SW alone could cost up to $1 trillion by centurys end.
Fina ll y, while the Dust Bowl la sted under a decade, the NOAA-led study found permanent Dust Bowls in
Southwest and a round the globe on our current emissions trajectory would be irreversible for many, many
centuries:
NOAA: Cli mate change la rgely ir reversibl e for 1000 years , with permanent Dust Bowls in Southwest
and around the globe. This January 2009 PNAS paper finds that if we merely peak at 450-600 ppm ofCO2
over the coming century, among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected are
irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable t is ao those of the dust bowl
era and inexorable sea level ri se. will I do
Again, this i s al l jus t business as usual .
From a worst-case perspective, Princeton has done an anal ysis on Century-scale change in water ava il abil ity:
CO2-quadrupling experiment, which is to say 1100 ppm. The grim result: Most of the South and Southwest
ultimately sees a 20% to 50% (!) decline in soil moisture .
Finally, the heat and drought drives wildfires. Heres a National Academies figure from a presentation made by
the Presidents science adviser Dr. John Holdren in Oslo in 2010, about conditions projected for mid-century:
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SEA LEVEL RISE
The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) report ignored dynamic i ce-sheet dis integration, which was
al ready happening (see Nature: Dynamic thinning of Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet ocean margins is more
sensi tive, pervasive, enduring a nd i mportant than previousl y reali zed). The IPCC therefore low-ball ed sea l evel
rise estimates, suggesting seas might rise only a foot or two this century, greatly delighting the anti-science
crowd (see here)
Within a year, even a major report signed off on by the Bush administration itself was forced to concede that
the IPCC numbers were simply too out of date to be quoted anymore (see US Geological Survey stunner: Sea-level
ris e in 2100 will li kely substantial ly exceed IPCC projections).
A dozen major studies since the IPCC report have concluded that we face much higher sea level rise this century:
PNAS Study (12/09): Sea levels may rise 3 times faster than IPCC estimated, could hit 6 feet by 2100 [see
figure above]. Note: We are currently close to the A1F1 emissions trajectoryand thus appear to be on
track for 1.4 meters (56 inches) of sea level rise.
JPL bombshell (3/11): Polar ice sheet mass loss is speeding up, on pace for 1 foot sea level rise by 2050
Startling new sea level rise research: Most likely 0.8 to 2.0 meters by 2100
High Water: Greenland ice sheet melting faster than expected and could raise East Coast sea levels an
extra 20 i nches by 2100 to more than 6 feet.
West Antarctic ice sheet collapse even more catastrophic for U.S. coasts
Nature sea level rise shocker: Coral fossils suggest catastrophic increase of more than 5 centimetres
per year over a 50-year stretch is possible. Lead author warns, This could happen again.
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NatureGeoscience: Sea levels may rise 5 feet by 2100
Four studies in 2012 provide yet more cause for concern
Three new Studies on Sea Level Rise Make Clear We Must Act Now. Staying near our current greenhouse
emis si ons emis si ons path not the worst-case scenario s till leads to over 40 inches of sea level ri se
by 2100 and then seas continue to rise 7 inches or more a decade!
Sea Level Ris e: It Could Be Wors e Than We Think: Seas could rise dramatically higher over the next few
centuries than sci entis ts previous ly thought somewhere between 18-to-29 feet above current levels ,
rather than the 13-to-20 feet they were tal king a bout jus t a few years ago.
Needless to say, a sea level rise of one meter by 2100 (nearly 40 inches) would be an unmitigated catastrophe
for the planet, even if sea levels didnt keep rising several inches a decade for centuries, which they inevitably
would. The firs t meter of SLR would flood 17% of Bangladesh, displ acing tens of mil li ons of people, and
reducing its rice-farming land by 50 percent. Globally, it would create more than 100 million environmental
refugees and inundate over 13,000 s quare miles of this country. Southern Louisi ana and South Florida would
inevitably be abandoned.
SPECIES LOSS ON LAND AND SEA
In 2007, the IPCC warned that as global average temperature increase exceeds about 3.5C [relative to 1980 to
1999], model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% of species assessed) around the globe. That is a
temperature rise over pre-industrial levels of a bit more than 4.0C. So a 5.5C rise would likely put extinctions
beyond the high end of that range.
Many more studies have rais ed similar concerns:
Study finds mass biodiversity collapse at 900 ppm, and poss ibl y a threshold response to relativelyminor increases in CO2 concentration and/or global temperature.
Last fall , the Royal Society ran a special is sue on Biological diversity in a changing world, concluding
There are very strong indications that the current rate of species extinctions far exceeds anything in the
fossil record.
Nature Climate Change (9/11): The proportion of actual biodiversity loss should quite clearly be revised
upwards: by 2080, more than 80% of genetic diversity within species may disappear in certain groups of
organisms
And, of course, When CO2 levels in the atmosphere reach about 500 parts per million, you put calcification outof business in the oceans. There arent many studies of what happens to the oceans a s we get toward 800 to
1000 ppm, but it appears likely that much of the worlds oceans, especially in the southern hemisphere, become
inhospitable to many forms of marine life. A 2005 Nature study concluded these detrimental conditions
could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.
A 2009 study in Nature Geoscience warned that global warming may create expanding dead zones in
the ocean that would be devoid of fish and seafood and remain for thousands of years.
A 2010 Nature Geoscience study found that Oceans are aci difying 10 times fas ter today than 55 mil li on
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years ago when a mass extinction of marine species occurred.
Geological Society (8/10): Acidifying oceans spell marine biological meltdown by end of century.
A 2011 Nature Geoscience study found humans are spewing carbon into the atmosphere 10 times faster
now than 56 million years ago, the PETM, a time of 10F warming and mass extinction.
As for the worst-cas e scenari o, we have:
Nature Stunner Global warming blamed for 40% decline in the oceans phytoplankton:Microscopic
life crucial to the marine food chain is dying out. The consequences could be catastrophic.
Yes, some scientists disputed the analysis, but I have seen no refutation in the scientific literature.
UNEXPECTED IMPACTS
If we go to 800 ppm let alone 1000 ppm or higher we are far outside the bounds of simple linear
projection. Some of the worst impacts may not be obvious and there may be unexpected negative synergies.
The best evidence that will happen is the fact that it is already happened with even a small amount of warming
we have seen to date.
The pine beetle infestation is the first major climate change crisis in Canada notes Doug McArthur, a
professor at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver. The pests are projected to kill 80 per cent of merchantable
and susceptible lodgepole pine in parts of Britis h Columbia within 10 years and thats why the harvest
levels in the region have been increased significantly.
As quantified in the journal Nature, Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change,
(subs. reqd), which just looks at the current and future impact from the beetles warming-driven devastation in
British Columbia:
the cumulative impact of the beet le outbreak in the affected region during 20002020 willbe 270 megatonnes (Mt) carbon (or 36 g carbon m-2 yr-1 on average over 374,000 km2 of
forest). This impact converted the forest from a small net carbon sink to a large net carbon
source.
No wonder the carbon sinks are saturating faster than we thought (see here) unmodeled impacts of climate
change are destroying them:
Insect outbreaks such as this represent an important mechanism by which climate change may
undermine the ability of northern forests to take up and store atmospheric carbon , and such
impacts should be accounted for in l arge-sca le modell ing anal yses.
And the bark beetle is sl amming the Western U.S. and Ala ska , too (see Oldest Utah newspa per: Bark-beetle
driven wildfires are a vicious climate cycle).
An April 2012 s tudy explained, Global Warming is Doubling Bark Beetle Mating, Boosting Tree Attacks Up To
60-Fold, Study Finds.
The key point is this catastrophic climate change impact and its carbon-cycle feedback were not foreseen even a
dozen years ago which suggests future climate impacts will bring other equally unpleasant surprises,
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http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/18/ocean-acidification-study-mass-extinction-of-marine-life-nature-geoscience/http://climateprogress.org/2010/08/31/geological-society-acid-ocean-marine-lif/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/06/06/238131/carbon-release-to-atmosphere-petm-warming-mass-extinction/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/06/06/238131/carbon-release-to-atmosphere-petm-warming-mass-extinction/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/06/06/238131/carbon-release-to-atmosphere-petm-warming-mass-extinction/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2010/07/29/206497/nature-decline-ocean-phytoplankton-global-warming-boris-worm/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2010/07/29/206497/nature-decline-ocean-phytoplankton-global-warming-boris-worm/http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v452/n7190/full/nature06777.htmlhttp://climateprogress.org/2007/10/26/soaring-carbon-dioxide-concentrations-sinks-saturating/http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/16/oldest-utah-newspaper-bark-beetle-driven-wildfires-are-a-vicious-climate-cycle/http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/16/oldest-utah-newspaper-bark-beetle-driven-wildfires-are-a-vicious-climate-cycle/http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/16/oldest-utah-newspaper-bark-beetle-driven-wildfires-are-a-vicious-climate-cycle/http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/16/oldest-utah-newspaper-bark-beetle-driven-wildfires-are-a-vicious-climate-cycle/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/30/446908/global-warming-is-doubling-bark-beetle-mating-boosting-tree-attacks-up-to-60-fold-study-finds/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/30/446908/global-warming-is-doubling-bark-beetle-mating-boosting-tree-attacks-up-to-60-fold-study-finds/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/30/446908/global-warming-is-doubling-bark-beetle-mating-boosting-tree-attacks-up-to-60-fold-study-finds/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/30/446908/global-warming-is-doubling-bark-beetle-mating-boosting-tree-attacks-up-to-60-fold-study-finds/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/30/446908/global-warming-is-doubling-bark-beetle-mating-boosting-tree-attacks-up-to-60-fold-study-finds/http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/16/oldest-utah-newspaper-bark-beetle-driven-wildfires-are-a-vicious-climate-cycle/http://climateprogress.org/2007/10/26/soaring-carbon-dioxide-concentrations-sinks-saturating/http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v452/n7190/full/nature06777.htmlhttp://thinkprogress.org/romm/2010/07/29/206497/nature-decline-ocean-phytoplankton-global-warming-boris-worm/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/06/06/238131/carbon-release-to-atmosphere-petm-warming-mass-extinction/http://climateprogress.org/2010/08/31/geological-society-acid-ocean-marine-lif/http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/18/ocean-acidification-study-mass-extinction-of-marine-life-nature-geoscience/7/28/2019 An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts
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especially as we continue on our path of no resistance .
EXTREME WEATHER
One of the basic predictions of climate science is that extreme weather will make the hydrological cycle more
extreme. Ive already dis cussed the extensive (and growing) li terature on how dry areas wil l get drier. But wet
areas will also get wetter:
Two seminal Nature papers joi n growing body of evidence that human emissi ons fuel extreme weather,
flooding that harm humans and the environment:
1) Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the
observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of
data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a
comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over
the la tter hal f of the twentieth century anal ysed with an optimal fi ngerprinting technique.
Changes i n extreme precipi tation projected by models, and thus the impacts of futurechanges in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to
underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming.
2) Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766
these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services
severely, and caused ins ured losses estimated at 1.3 bil li on.
it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased
the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000.
That post ended with i ts own review of the li terature on the connection between global warming a nd extreme
weather. Here are several more recent studies on how warming i s al ready making our weather more extreme:
Study: Global warming i s dr ivi ng increased frequency of extreme wet or dry summer weather in
southeast, so droughts and deluges are likely to get worse
A new study by a Duke University-led team of climate scientists suggests that global warming
is the main cause of a significant intensification in the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH)
that in recent decades has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry
summer weather in the southeastern United States.
The models known as Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models
predict the NASH will continue to intensify and expand as concentrations of carbon dioxide
and other greenhouse gases increase in Earths atmosphere in coming decades .This
intensification will further increase the likelihood of extreme summer precipitation variability
periods of drought or deluge in southeastern states in coming decades, Li says.
Nature: Hurricanes ARE getting fi ercer and i ts going to get much worse
14
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/16/207545/two-nature-paper-join-growing-body-of-evidence-that-human-emissions-fuel-extreme-weather-flooding-that-harm-humans-and-the-environment/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/16/207545/two-nature-paper-join-growing-body-of-evidence-that-human-emissions-fuel-extreme-weather-flooding-that-harm-humans-and-the-environment/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/16/207545/two-nature-paper-join-growing-body-of-evidence-that-human-emissions-fuel-extreme-weather-flooding-that-harm-humans-and-the-environment/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/16/207545/two-nature-paper-join-growing-body-of-evidence-that-human-emissions-fuel-extreme-weather-flooding-that-harm-humans-and-the-environment/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/16/207545/two-nature-paper-join-growing-body-of-evidence-that-human-emissions-fuel-extreme-weather-flooding-that-harm-humans-and-the-environment/http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/28/global-warming-extreme-wet-dry-summer-weather-in-southeast-droughts-and-deluges/http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/28/global-warming-extreme-wet-dry-summer-weather-in-southeast-droughts-and-deluges/http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/03/nature-hurricanes-are-getting-fiercer-and-its-going-to-get-much-worse/http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/03/nature-hurricanes-are-getting-fiercer-and-its-going-to-get-much-worse/http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/28/global-warming-extreme-wet-dry-summer-weather-in-southeast-droughts-and-deluges/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/16/207545/two-nature-paper-join-growing-body-of-evidence-that-human-emissions-fuel-extreme-weather-flooding-that-harm-humans-and-the-environment/7/28/2019 An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts
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The team calculates that a 1 C increase in sea-surface temperatures would result in a 31%
increase in the global frequency of category 4 and 5 storms per year: from 13 of those storms
to 17. Since 1970, the tropical oceans have warmed on average by around 0.5 C. Computer
models suggest they may warm by a further 2 C by 2100.
Nature: Strong Evidence Manmade Unprecedented Heat And Rainfa ll Extremes Are Here Causi ng
Intense Human Suffering
Hansen et al: Extreme Heat Waves in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 Were
Caused by Global Warming
Study Finds 80% Chance Russias 2010 July Heat Record Would Not Have Occurred Without Climate
Warming
NOAA: Human-Caused Climate ChangeAlreadya Major Factor in More Frequent Mediterranean Droughts
The very latest science suggests we may actually be in the midst of a quantum leap or step-function change in
extreme weather because of warming-driven Arctic i ce loss:
Arctic Warming Favors Extreme, Prolonged Weather Events Such As Drought, Flooding, Cold Spells And
Heat Waves
Is Cli mate Change Bringing the Arctic to Europe?
NOAA Bombshell : Warming-Driven Arctic Ice Loss Is Boosting Chance of Extreme U.S. Weather
FOOD INSECURITY
In over two decades of tracking world food prices, the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization index has never
stayed so high for so l ong.
This represents true suffering for hundreds of millions of people who live on the edge, for whom food is a large
fraction of their income like, say, North Africa (see Expert consensus grows on contribution of record high food
prices to Middle East unrest).
Population growth, dietary s hifts, growing use of crops for biofuels, peaking conventional oil production a nd15
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/26/451605/nature-strong-evidence-manmade-unprecedented-heat-rainfall-extremes-causing-intense-human-suffering/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/26/451605/nature-strong-evidence-manmade-unprecedented-heat-rainfall-extremes-causing-intense-human-suffering/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/01/06/399350/hansen-extreme-heat-waves-texas-oklahoma-moscow-were-caused-by-global-warming/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/10/24/351770/study-russia-2010-july-heat-record-climate-warming/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/10/27/355639/noaa-climate-change-mediterranean-droughts/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/04/457823/arctic-warming-extreme-weather-events-drought-flooding-cold-spells-and-heat-waves/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/04/457823/arctic-warming-extreme-weather-events-drought-flooding-cold-spells-and-heat-waves/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/02/06/419154/climate-change-arctic-europe/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/11/989231/noaa-bombshell-warming-driven-arctic-ice-loss-is-boosting-chance-of-extreme-us-weather/http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/04/207460/contribution-of-high-food-prices-to-mideast-unrest/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/04/207460/contribution-of-high-food-prices-to-mideast-unrest/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/04/207460/contribution-of-high-food-prices-to-mideast-unrest/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/04/207460/contribution-of-high-food-prices-to-mideast-unrest/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/04/207460/contribution-of-high-food-prices-to-mideast-unrest/http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/11/989231/noaa-bombshell-warming-driven-arctic-ice-loss-is-boosting-chance-of-extreme-us-weather/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/02/06/419154/climate-change-arctic-europe/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/04/457823/arctic-warming-extreme-weather-events-drought-flooding-cold-spells-and-heat-waves/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/10/27/355639/noaa-climate-change-mediterranean-droughts/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/10/24/351770/study-russia-2010-july-heat-record-climate-warming/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/01/06/399350/hansen-extreme-heat-waves-texas-oklahoma-moscow-were-caused-by-global-warming/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/26/451605/nature-strong-evidence-manmade-unprecedented-heat-rainfall-extremes-causing-intense-human-suffering/7/28/2019 An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts
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increases in extreme weather have all played a part. As the literature above makes clear, on our current
emissions path, we face:
Dust-Bowli fications devastating i mpact on farming;
Sea level rise and the accompanying salt water infiltration, threatening some of the richest agricultural
deltas in the world, such as the Nile and Ganges (see Rising sea salinates Indias Ganges).
Ocean aci dification, warming and overfishing severely depleting the avail abil ity of seafood.
Extreme weather harming crops see NOAA: Monster crop-destroying Rus si an heat wave to be once-in-
a-decade event by 2060s (or sooner)
One analysis just of the impact of temperature rise on food finds Half of worlds population could face climate-
driven food crisis by 2100. And this is just a 700 ppm anal ysi s with no dis cuss ion of the impact of soi l drying
up or other well-understood climate impacts.
Two major Oxfam studies in the past 12 months show the impact global warming poses to food prices. First we
had Extreme Weather Has Helped Push Tens of Mil li ons i nto Hunger and Povertyin Grim Foretaste of
Warmed World, with this chart:
Further modeling the impact of warming-dri ven extreme weather shocks l ead Oxfam to concludecorn prices
could increase a staggering 500% by 2030:
16
http://climateprogress.org/2009/02/05/salt-water-infiltration-wedge-global-warming-india-ganges/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/03/14/207683/noaa-russian-heat-wave-trenberth-attribution/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/03/14/207683/noaa-russian-heat-wave-trenberth-attribution/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/03/14/207683/noaa-russian-heat-wave-trenberth-attribution/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/01/11/203548/half-of-worlds-population-could-face-climate-driven-food-crisis-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/01/11/203548/half-of-worlds-population-could-face-climate-driven-food-crisis-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/01/11/203548/half-of-worlds-population-could-face-climate-driven-food-crisis-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/01/11/203548/half-of-worlds-population-could-face-climate-driven-food-crisis-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/29/377015/oxfam-extreme-weather-hunger-and-poverty/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/29/377015/oxfam-extreme-weather-hunger-and-poverty/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/29/377015/oxfam-extreme-weather-hunger-and-poverty/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/29/377015/oxfam-extreme-weather-hunger-and-poverty/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/09/27/795811/oxfam-warns-climate-change-and-extreme-weather-will-cause-food-prices-to-soar/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/09/27/795811/oxfam-warns-climate-change-and-extreme-weather-will-cause-food-prices-to-soar/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/29/377015/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/OxfamGraph11.pnghttp://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/29/377015/oxfam-extreme-weather-hunger-and-poverty/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/01/11/203548/half-of-worlds-population-could-face-climate-driven-food-crisis-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/03/14/207683/noaa-russian-heat-wave-trenberth-attribution/http://climateprogress.org/2009/02/05/salt-water-infiltration-wedge-global-warming-india-ganges/7/28/2019 An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts
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The additional price increase percentage (olive green bars) is calculated off the original price increase.
For the foreseeable future, the Cli mate Story of the Year is that Warming-Driven Drought and Extreme Weather
Emerge as Key Threat to Global Food Security.
DIRECT HEALTH IMPACTS
In 2011 the British Medical Journal warned that climate
change poses an immediate and grave threat, driving ill-
health and increasi ng the risk of confli ct, such that each
feeds upon the other. The UKs Hadley Center notes that on
our current one rela ted impact, By the 2090s close to one-
fifth of the worlds population will be exposed to ozone
levels well above the World Health Organization
recommended safe-health level.
A June 2011 peer-reviewed report released by the Union of
Concerned Scientists (UCS) Climate Change and Your
Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution
shows that the harm to Americans, especially children, from human-caused warming is upon us now.
A just-releas ed September 2011 report by the European Lung Foundation finds:
Cli mate change set to increase ozone-related deaths over next 60 years
Scientis ts are warning that death rates li nked to cli mate change wil l increase in several
European countries over the next 60 yrs .
Earlier this year, Climate Progress reported on what the top medical and health groups warn are the health
risks Americans face from climate change:
More than doubled asthma rates and lengthened asthma season (already 20 days longer)17
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/21/393127/climate-story-of-the-year-warming-driven-drought-extreme-weather-emerge-as-threat-to-global-food-security/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/21/393127/climate-story-of-the-year-warming-driven-drought-extreme-weather-emerge-as-threat-to-global-food-security/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/21/393127/climate-story-of-the-year-warming-driven-drought-extreme-weather-emerge-as-threat-to-global-food-security/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/21/393127/climate-story-of-the-year-warming-driven-drought-extreme-weather-emerge-as-threat-to-global-food-security/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/04/08/207834/british-medical-journal-climate-change-threat-health/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/08/26/204550/global-warming-health-impacts-heat-waves-ps/http://www.ucsusa.org/climateandozonepollutionhttp://www.ucsusa.org/climateandozonepollutionhttp://www.ucsusa.org/climateandozonepollutionhttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110927073159.htmhttp://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/25/207590/top-medical-groups-warn-americans-of-health-risks-posed-by-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/25/207590/top-medical-groups-warn-americans-of-health-risks-posed-by-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/25/207590/top-medical-groups-warn-americans-of-health-risks-posed-by-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/25/207590/top-medical-groups-warn-americans-of-health-risks-posed-by-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/25/207590/top-medical-groups-warn-americans-of-health-risks-posed-by-climate-change/http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110927073159.htmhttp://www.ucsusa.org/climateandozonepollutionhttp://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/08/26/204550/global-warming-health-impacts-heat-waves-ps/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/04/08/207834/british-medical-journal-climate-change-threat-health/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/21/393127/climate-story-of-the-year-warming-driven-drought-extreme-weather-emerge-as-threat-to-global-food-security/http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Oxfam.gif7/28/2019 An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts
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Threatened access to clean drinking water
Increases in ai rborne and ins ect borne ill ness es (e.g. mosquitos, ticks, tapeworm)
Increases i n diarrheal , respi ratory, and heart disease
Increased ris k of sal monella s pread as average temperatures ris e
Increase in hospital use results in rising health care costs
Particular risk among low-income communities, children, the elderly, and the obese
See also The Lancets landmark Health Commission: Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the
21st century
CONCLUSION
The possibility that unrestricted emissions of greenhouse gases would not do unimaginable harm to humanity
has become vanis hingly s mall. Thats because:
We remain near the worst-case emissions pathways
There is li ttle prospect of major national or global action any times soon (thank you, deniers)
Many impacts are coming faster than the models projected, and
The overwhelming majority of the scientific literature in the past 5 years has been more dire than the
2007 IPCC report, which i tself was more than enough motivation for the overwhelming majority of
cli mate scientists a nd countries to call for urgent action to reduce emiss ions.
And I havent even discussed the many, many studies that suggest in fact carbon-cycle feedbacks (like the
defrosting tundra) a re almost al l positive (amplifying) and yet largely ignored in most climate models :
NSIDC: Thawing permafrost feedback will turn Arctic from carbon sink to source in the 2020s, releasing
100 bil li on tons of carbon by 2100 and links therein.
Nature: Climate Experts Warn Thawing Permafrost Could Cause 2.5 Times the Warming of Deforestation!
Forest Feedback: Rising CO2 In Atmosphere Also Speeds Carbon Loss From Forest Soils, Research Finds
For Peats Sake: Record Temperatures And Wi ldfi res In Eastern Russ ia Drive Ampli fying Carbon-Cycle
Feedback
Stunning Peatlands Amplifying Feedback: Drying Wetlands and Intensi fying Wil dfires Boost Carbon
Release Ninefold
Carbon Feedback From Thawing Permafrost Will Likely Add 0.4F 1.5F To Total Global Warming By
2100
So its no surpris e that many climate impacts are coming much faster than the models had predicted:
18
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/05/14/204103/lancet-global-health-impacts-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/05/14/204103/lancet-global-health-impacts-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/05/14/204103/lancet-global-health-impacts-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/17/207552/nsidc-thawing-permafrost-will-turn-from-carbon-sink-to-source-in-mid-2020s-releasing-100-billion-tons-of-carbon-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/01/379675/nature-climate-experts-thawing-permafrost-warming-of-deforestation/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/01/379675/nature-climate-experts-thawing-permafrost-warming-of-deforestation/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/07/15/513685/forest-feedback-rising-co2-in-atmosphere-also-speeds-carbon-loss-from-forest-soils-research-finds/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/31/784801/for-peats-sake-record-temperatures-and-wildfires-in-eastern-russia-drive-amplifying-carbon-cycle-feedback/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/03/360902/peatlands-feedback-drying-wetlands-wildfires-boosts-carbon-release/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/06/970721/carbon-feedback-from-thawing-permafrost-will-add-04f-15f-to-total-global-warming-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/06/970721/carbon-feedback-from-thawing-permafrost-will-add-04f-15f-to-total-global-warming-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/03/360902/peatlands-feedback-drying-wetlands-wildfires-boosts-carbon-release/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/31/784801/for-peats-sake-record-temperatures-and-wildfires-in-eastern-russia-drive-amplifying-carbon-cycle-feedback/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/07/15/513685/forest-feedback-rising-co2-in-atmosphere-also-speeds-carbon-loss-from-forest-soils-research-finds/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/01/379675/nature-climate-experts-thawing-permafrost-warming-of-deforestation/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/17/207552/nsidc-thawing-permafrost-will-turn-from-carbon-sink-to-source-in-mid-2020s-releasing-100-billion-tons-of-carbon-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/05/14/204103/lancet-global-health-impacts-climate-change/7/28/2019 An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts
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Close
Arctic Sea Ice is melting much, much faster than even the best climate models had projected. The
reason is most likely unmodeled amplifying feedbacks. Image via Arctic Sea Ice Blog.
Inaction means humanitys self-destruction. We must pay any price or bear any burden to stop catastrophic
climate change.
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