An Annual Review of Long-Term Capital Planning ......Circular, Maps, School Locator BOE Process Assessment Yes Monitor for future ... November April July HCPSS - 2017 Feasibility Study

An Annual Review of Long-Term Capital Planning & Attendance Area Options

June 22, 2017 1

Bruce Gist Executive Director

Capital Planning & [email protected]

410-313-6798

Anissa Brown DennisActing Chief Operating Officer

[email protected]

Renee M. Kamen, AICPManager

School [email protected]

410-313-7184

Jennifer BubenkoPlanning Specialist

Tim RogersPlanning Analyst

2HCPSS - 2017 Feasibility Study

The Feasibility Study has four (4) goals:Informs the long-term planning process;Facilitate discussion of future decisions;Provide strategic information to the school system; andPrepare for scheduled boundary adjustments


Enrollment Projection

Feasibility Study

Redistricting?

Staff Develops Capital Budget

Capital Budget

Board of Education Review

County Council Review

Open/Closed Chart

Yes

No

Boundary Adjustment Goals

Attendance Area Review

BOE Review

Boundary Adjustments

Circular, Maps, School Locator

BOE Process Assessment

Yes

Monitor for future projections

NoApproved

Boundary Changes

Year One Year One ar January

Year TwoYea Twoar TJanuary

June

July

Year T oar TNovember

April

July 4HCPSS - 2017 Feasibility Study

Projection methodology is based on historic cohort survival ratios in addition to:

Live birthsApartment turnoverNew constructionRegional Program EnrollmentResale of existing housing

These variables are combined to project enrollment for each school for September 30 of each future year.5HCPSS - 2017 Feasibility Study

6

2016 projection Report to BOE on February 23, 2017Countywide 99.4% accurate 81% of schools were 95% accurate or betterApproximately 32% of the schools were within 10 students of actual enrollment

HCPSS - 2017 Feasibility Study


Over er 110% capacity





10

Year Projected Growth from 2016 Enrollment (K-12)

Sept 30, 2016 (Actual) - 54,348

Sept 30, 2017 903 55,251

Sept 30, 2023 7,108 61,456

Sept 30, 2027 10,888 65,236

Development in the county drives enrollment growth. Enrollment growth drives the CIP and Long-Range Master Plan.HCPSS - 2017 Feasibility Study

11

Consider increasing the educational specifications for the elementary school model to 788 seatsConsider additional ES seats in the Northern region at the elementary school level when a renovation project comes available.Consider capital investment at WFES to help defer the need of a new school.Consider planning for additional seats at EMMS and DMS for 2021.Continue planning for a new ES (2023)Continue planning for a new HS (2024)

Wilde Lake MS Replacement School 760 seats(293 new)

Swansfield ES100 seats

New ES #42788 seats

Waverly ES144 seats

New ES #45788 seats (2029)

New ES #43788 seats

New HS #131,615 seats

New ES #44788 seats (2027)

Dunloggin MS97 seats

Ellicott Mills MS156 seats

20182017

202520242023

2022202120202019

2026 2027 2028

Bold text- new projects or number of seats changed Opening date changed

Key: Changes from 2016 Feasibility Study

Estimated FY19Long-Range Plan HCPSS - 2017 Feasibility Study

12

Goals of Boundary AdjustmentsProvide a comprehensive boundary adjustments that considers balanced utilization at all school levels, strengthens school feeds; contiguous communitiesOpen ES #42 for SY 2018-2019;

Utilize western capacity to balance utilization in the Northern and West Columbia regions; andUtilize new capacities at Waverly ES and Swansfield ES to balance utilization in Northern and West Columbia areas.

Adjust school boundaries at the middle school level to balance capacity utilization as well as align middle school feeds (from elementary school).Adjust school boundaries at the high school levels to utilize western school capacity and align high school feeds (from middle school).Incorporate feedback from community meetings.


13

What do you u value about the he currentboundary process?

Transparency of the process Public participation throughout processThe “rules” regarding frequency of redistricting

What are your ur concerns with school boundary adjustments?

Program differences between schools at elementary school levelSmall feeds; splitting communitiesSupport for the transition of studentsBefore and after care arrangements


14

What at innovative ideas do you have for either the boundary process or the planning phase?

Start from scratch; multi-level examination of all school levelsProximity to schoolCommunication enhancements

Use “nextdoor apps” to inform the neighborhoods about meetings and progress.Hold meetings at each school affected, coordinate with PTAs/PTSAsCanvas


15

What are the 3 most important factors with school boundary adjustments?

Feeds that encourage keeping students together from one school to the next. (17.7%)Areas that are made up of contiguous communities or neighborhoods. (13.8%)Frequency with which any one student is reassigned. (10.9%)The number of students that walk or receive bus serve… (10.6%)Long-range enrollment, capital plans and capacity needs… (10.2%)


16

What are the he 3 least important factors with school boundary adjustments?

The racial/ethnic composition of the student population. (12.2%)The level of English learners as measured by enrollment in the ESOL program (10.8%)The socioeconomic composition of the school population… (10.1%)


17

<85%

85%% -- 90%

90%% -% -110%

> 110%

<85%2018 Utilization

Without attendance area adjustments



Appendix B, (page 79) Appendix B, (page 80)






Appendix B, (page 85)

22HCPSS - 2017 Feasibility StudyAppendix B, (page 86) Appendix B, (page 87)



24

<85%

85%% -- 90%

90%% -% -110%

> 110%

2018 Utilization

With school boundary adjustments


25

<85%

85%% -- 90%

90%% -% -110%

> 110%

<85%

2022 Utilization



26

<85%

85%% -- 90%

90%% -% -110%

> 110%

85%

2018 Utilization

Without school boundary adjustment










31

<85%

85%% -- 90%

90%% -% -110%

> 110%

<85%

2018 Utilization



32

<85%

85%% -- 90%

90%% -% -110%

> 110%

<85%

2022 Utilization




<85%

85%% -- 90%

90%% -% -110%

> 110%

<85%

2018 Utilization

Without school boundary adjustments

Updated 06.22.2017








Appendix B, (page 104)




<85%

85%% -- 90%

90%% -% -110%

> 110%

<85%

2018 Utilization



<85%

85%% -- 90%

90%% -% -110%

> 110%

<85%

2022 Utilization



Plan’s Strengths and WeaknessesPlan evaluation is based upon Policy 6010 Standards (VI.B.)Increases the number of schools that are projected to have improved capacity utilization in 2018.Reduces the number of schools with capacity utilization below 90%Mileage is assumed to change distance traveled and students’ seat time

School bell time changes will alter the transportation impacts of any proposed attendance area adjustmentMay create some bus riders out of walkers (potential new walk areas have not been assessed)

Decreases the number of small feeds Eliminates one double small feedDecreases the non-contiguous attendance areas

42

Policy 6010 requires the Board of Education (Section IV.C.2.) to o notify Policy 6010 rethe public of its decision for the Superintendent

ction IV.C.2.) too nt to proceed or not f of

to proceed with the formation of the AAC and attendance area adjustment recommendations.

Staff recommends appointment of of Attendance Area Committeeand initiation of the attendance area adjustment process for or or 2017.



Summer 2017

•• Attendance Area Committee Meetings (Jun – Aug) schedule is posted on-line at www.hcpss.org/school-planning - Meetings are open to the public.

Fall 2017

• Boundary Adjustment Community Meetings (9/12 & 9/13)• Final Staff Plan Recommendation Presented to BOE (10/3)• BOE Public Hearings (10/26, 11/7)• BOE Work Sessions (11/1, 11/2, 11/9 & 11/14)• Action (11/16)


Contact:

School Planning Office:10910 Clarksville PikeEllicott City, MD [email protected]

410.313.7184

Website (updated frequently): www.hcpss.org/school-planning

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Documents

An Annual Review of Long-Term Capital Planning ......Circular, Maps, School Locator BOE Process Assessment Yes Monitor for future ... November April July HCPSS - 2017 Feasibility Study