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An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm
characteristicscharacteristicscharacteristicscharacteristicscharacteristicscharacteristicscharacteristicscharacteristics
-------- Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?
R.E. Benestad, CES, June 01 2010
Number of cyclones:
RCM
analysisCCI
(Benestad & Chen, 2006) �
No change in storm frequency?No change in storm frequency?
RCM:
N corresponds
|v| too high
...or simulated wind speeds?...or simulated wind speeds?
•CCI
•triangulation
Method: storm characteristicsMethod: storm characteristics
RCM: storms too small
too strong.
Gradient wind
Obs=ERAINT (reanalysis) �
Storm statisticsStorm statistics
Domain:
12°W-38°E/48-66°N
(Same as RCM)
Historical reanalysis
ERAINT
Little trend!
Historical analysis: NHistorical analysis: N
CCI on small domain:
restricted
RCM domainRCM domain
Domain:
80°W-40°E/20-
75°N
Different story!
Geographical
distribution?
Storm statistics: Whole North AtlanticStorm statistics: Whole North Atlantic
Homogeneous?
Historical analysis: |v|Historical analysis: |v|
Southern Norway
SLP 'triangulation'
historical
ERAINT
RCM
Geostrophic windGeostrophic wind
Meteorologisk institutt met.no
A change in storminess?
• Storms: baroclinic instability, available energy• Ambient conditions:
– dT/dy, moisture, flow.
• Energy flow:
– evaporation, motion, condensation, radiation, advection.
• Aspects:
– Clouds, winds, pressure & precipitation.
• Data difficult.
• High uncertainty!