AMPLIFYING WEAK SIGNALS - Global Food Forums · Weak Signals Evidence of a new behavior,technology, or environmental condition that is small and emerging,but could lead to powerful

AMPLIFYING WEAK SIGNALSA FRAMEWORK FOR FORESIGHT

M I K E L E EC E O & F O U N D E R

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Products

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Existing

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Innovation

Strategies

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-We help food companies to -

THE

FUTUREMARKETI

II

..........

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Amplifying Weak Signals

Small Ideas Today

Year 2015


Small Ideas Today

Year 2015

Big Ideas TomorrowYear 2065

Better innovation in food

today starts with more

ambitious thinking

about tomorrow.

Scenario Planning“Scenarios are a tool for helping managers plan for the future – or rather

for different possible futures.They help us focus on critical uncertainties.

On the things we don't know about which might transform our business.”

- Royal Dutch Shell

BlockbusterVideo’sWeak Signals


RedboxAutomated

Distribution


NetflixDirect to

Consumer

RedboxAutomated

Distribution


NetflixDirect to

Consumer

RedboxAutomated

Distribution

BroadbandEnabling

On Demand

The connection between short term

actions and long term consequences

is not always clear.

AmplifyingWeak Signals

Connects the Clear Present

With the Blurry Future

TheValue ofWeak SignalsEmpowering your company to…

The Value of Weak SignalsEmpowering your company to…

MoveWith the ChangingTides



ShapeWhere the Industry Goes



ShapeWhere the Industry Goes

BuildNew CompetitiveAdvantages

Weak Signals Amplification


Gather


Gather

Amplify


Gather

Amplify

Prioritize

Gather

Gathering Signals

Human Sensor Networks

CreateYour Innovators Circle

Gathering Signals

Ethnographic Expeditions

Gain High-Fidelity Insights

Gathering Signals

Social Media Monitoring

Quick & Easy Investigation

POST MESSAGE TO #PROTEIN14 0

-ENABLE CHAT MODE HIDE NEW RETWEETS Feed Speed: Fast

Live Feed "!I - - - - -a Lunch was a pumpkin salad with feta and olives #protein #food #fuel

4m@hormonarse Musculman

#yummy #salad #roast #kaylaitsines #bbg #challe... pic.twitter.com/OOzlmjXCNN

a @hormonarse Musculman

#weightloss #macros #protein #motivation #diet #transformation #instagood#instadaily #ootd #photooftheday #follow ... pic.twitter.com/unsFHFwScl

4m

. , ..

Log in with Twitter Increase your feed refresh rate and join the conversation!

10m

Diet Whey by INC International Nutrition Co. is a great meal replacement....

#protein buff.ly/1QPKjSL pic.twitter.com/nf4VRnPYrV

@naf_sid nth

RT @DaniellaMonet: Quick & easy #vegan #chocolate #protein shake

recipe on my snap 'flt daniemo pic.twitter.com/qBJivdJcqU

@RssProtein Protein

#Protein Bribery for services rampant in Mideast, North Africa, research finds

bit.ly/1Z5RL1W

@MyGood_ Health1 Dr. Brandon

#protein #proteins PrimaSolutions :

@PrimaSolut ions_ PrimaSolutions

#Alcohol Ingestion Impairs Maximal Post-Exercise Rates of Myofibrillar #Protein Synthesis

dx.doi.org/10.1371 fjourna .. .

•@QNTINDIA QNT INDIA

Everything is Better After Workout D #Protein #Workout #Wheyprotein #Metapure

qntsport .in/gb/56-protein fb.me/7WIRmPavQ

@FitnessDie t food Emma l i lder

Info: The #nutritional benefits of #chia include #fiber , #omega3 fatty acids, #calcium ,

#antioxidants n #protein : twtly.com/ev5

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Amplify


Small Ideas Today

Year 2015

Big Ideas TomorrowYear 2065

Weak Signals

Evidence of a new behavior,technology,

or environmental condition that is small

and emerging,but could lead to

powerful outcomes.

Behavior

Technology

Environment

ThreeTypes of Signals

These three

categories are

connected.

Categorize one

signal and figure

out how it affects

the other two

AmplifyingWeak Signals

• A Springboard for CreativityThe value of the process is taking your current thinking far beyond the limitsof

today's reality and using that experience to inspire what you do today.

• Understand How Brands Can EvolveHelpful for imagining how a brand thrives in a new technological,behavioral,

or environmental context

• Understand Ideas in 3 DimensionsThe Behavior /Technology / Environment framework can be used on any idea or

insight in today's world,not just into the future

36

Signals Grid

Today0-5 Years

Tomorrow6-10 Years

Later11-15 Years

BehaviorSignals

TechnologySignals

Environmen

tSignals

37

Signals Grid

Today Tomorrow Later0-5 Years 6-10 Years 11-15 Years

BehaviorSignals

Professional chefs

using 3D printing

for pure wow-

factor

Ex: MIT Food Printing

TechnologySignals

Startups Making 3D

Food Printers that

can print a few

ingredients

Ex: 3D Systems

Environmen

tSignals

Partnerships

forming between

3D printing and

food companies

Ex: Hershey & 3D Systems

Signal Amplification Questions

Technology Behavior Environment

• What does it look like when

this technology performs

twice as good at half the

price?

• What does it look like when

this technology becomes

ubiquitous?

• What would be a major

breakthrough for this

technology?What happens

when it is achieved?

• What happens if this

behavior is adopted by

additional people,by a factor

of 10?

• What is not accepted or

understood today but

becomes common

knowledge?

• What happens when you see

this behavior in mainstream

media?

• What are the qualities that

we compete on today?What

if these qualities become

table stakes for everyone?

• What happens when barriers

to entry are broken down?

• What kinds of firms will

dominate this marketplace?

Use these questions to explore how technology,behavior,

and environmental conditions can change.

39

Signals Grid

Today Tomorrow Later0-5 Years 6-10 Years 11-15 Years

BehaviorSignals

Professional chefs

using 3D printing

for pure wow-

factor


TechnologySignals

Startups Making 3D

Food Printers that

can print a few

ingredients

Ex: 3D Systems

Environmen

tSignals

Partnerships

forming between

3D printing and

food companies


40

Signals Grid

Today0-5 Years

Tomorrow6-10 Years

Later11-15 Years

BehaviorSignals

Professional chefs

using 3D printing

for pure wow-

factor


Home enthusiasts

and professionals

push the limits of 3D

food

printing,

acceptance gaining

TechnologySignals

Startups Making 3D

Food Printers that

can print a few

ingredients

Ex: 3D Systems

More ingredients can

be 3D printed:

dough, extruding

blended

foods, chocolate

Environmen

tSignals

Partnerships

forming between

3D printing and

food companies


Custom printed food

kiosks begin to

appear in

supermarkets

41

Signals Grid

Today0-5 Years

Tomorrow6-10 Years

Later11-15 Years

BehaviorSignals

Professional chefs

using 3D printing

for pure wow-

factor


Home enthusiasts

and professionals


food

printing,

acceptance gaining

Expectations and

desire rise for

3D printed food

TechnologySignals

Startups Making 3D

Food Printers that

can print a few

ingredients

Ex: 3D Systems


be 3D printed:

dough, extruding

blended

foods, chocolate

Cheap 3D Food

Printers can

print vir tually

any food

Environmen

tSignals

Partnerships

forming between

3D printing and

food companies


Custom printed food

kiosks begin to

appear in

supermarkets

Big Food sells food

in 3D Printer

Cartridges

Scenario GenerationThe goal is to generate many possibilities in a structured manner

Technology Behavior Marketplace

Prioritiz

e

Divergent / ConvergentThinking

45

Signals Grid

Today0-5 Years

Tomorrow6-10 Years

Later11-15 Years

BehaviorSignals

Professional chefs

using 3D printing

for pure wow-

factor


Home enthusiasts

and professionals


food

printing,

acceptance gaining

Expectations and

desire rise for

3D printed food

TechnologySignals

Startups Making 3D

Food Printers that

can print a few

ingredients

Ex: 3D Systems


be 3D printed:

dough, extruding

blended

foods, chocolate

Cheap 3D Food

Printers can

print vir tually

any food

Environmen

tSignals

Partnerships

forming between

3D printing and

food companies


Custom printed food

kiosks begin to

appear in

supermarkets

Big Food sells food

in 3D Printer

Cartridges

Converging / Prioritizing Ideas

High

Impact

Low

Impact

High

Probability

Low

Probability

I N V E S T I G AT E A C T

B A C K B U R N E R I N V E S T I G AT E

Converging / Prioritizing Ideas

High

Impact

Low

Impact

High

Probability

Low

Probability

I N V E S T I G AT E A C T

B A C K B U R N E R I N V E S T I G AT E

Startups Making 3D Food

Printers that can print a

few ingredients

Professional chefs using

3D printing for pure

wow-factor

Home enthusiasts and

professionals push the limits

of 3D food printing,

acceptance gaining

Expectations and

desire rise for 3D

printed food


be 3D printed:dough,

extruding blended

foods,chocolate

Cheap 3D Food

Printers can print

virtually any food

Partnerships forming

between 3D printing

and food companies

Custom printed

food kiosks begin

to appear in

supermarkets

Big Food sells

food in 3D

Printer

Cartridges

Prioritizing Signals

High

Impact

Act

Hig

Probab

Low

Impact

h

ility

Backburner

Low

Probability

Backburner

Investigate

Scenario Building


Gather

Amplify

Prioritize

Strategic Planning

51

ThankYou!

AmplifyingWeak SignalsWorksheets

http://bit.ly/ampweaksignals

Contact Email

[email protected]

http://bit.ly/ampweaksignals

We are all traveling through time.Let us make the future a place

we’d want to visit.

Stephen Hawking

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AMPLIFYING WEAK SIGNALS - Global Food Forums · Weak Signals Evidence of a new behavior,technology, or environmental condition that is small and emerging,but could lead to powerful