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1 Introduction to Path Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling with AMOS Daniel Stahl Biostatistics and Computing Last week: Family Tree of SEM Bivariate Correlation Multiple Regression Path Analysis Structural Equation Modeling Factor Analysis Exploratory Factor Analysis Confirmatory Factor Analysis Depression Pain Function Model 1 Depression Pain Function Model 2 Last week: Path analysis Pain Item 1 Error 1 1 1 Item 2 Error 2 1 Item 3 Error 3 1 Function Item 1 Error 1 Item 2 Error 2 Item 3 Error 3 1 1 1 1 Depression Item 1 Error 1 Item 2 Error 2 Item 3 Error 3 1 1 1 1 Last week: Path analysis with latent constructs = Structural Equation Modelling Pain Item 1 Error 1 1 1 Item 2 Error 2 1 Item 3 Error 3 1 Function Item 1 Error 1 Item 2 Error 2 Item 3 Error 3 1 1 1 1 Depression Item 1 Error 1 Item 2 Error 2 Item 3 Error 3 1 1 1 1 Measurement model Structural model Last week: 1. Observed variables 2. Unobserved variables 3. Drawing latent variable (draws latent variable and ite 4. Drawing path (causal relationship regression) 5. Draw covariances (correlation, no direction) 6. Unique variable (error variable, add e.g. to each dep 7. List variables (open data file first, then drag and drop 8. Select one object, select all, deselect 9. Move object 10.Delete 11.Select data file 12.Analysis properties (choose statistics) 13.Calculate estimates (starts the analysis) 14.View test (see results) 15.Copy graph in clipboard 16. Save 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 7

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Page 1: amosweek2

1

Introduction to Path Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling

with AMOSDaniel Stahl

Biostatistics and Computing

Last week: Family Tree of SEM

BivariateCorrelation

MultipleRegression

PathAnalysis

StructuralEquationModeling

FactorAnalysis

ExploratoryFactorAnalysis

ConfirmatoryFactorAnalysis

Depression

Pain

Function

Model 1

Depression

Pain

Function

Model 2

Last week: Path analysis

Pain

Item 1

Error 1

1

1

Item 2

Error 2

1

Item 3

Error 3

1

Function

Item 1

Error 1

Item 2

Error 2

Item 3

Error 3

1

111

Depression

Item 1 Error 1

Item 2 Error 2

Item 3 Error 3

11

1

1

Last week: Path analysis with latent constructs = Structural Equation Modelling

Pain

Item 1

Error 1

1

1

Item 2

Error 2

1

Item 3

Error 3

1

Function

Item 1

Error 1

Item 2

Error 2

Item 3

Error 3

1

111

Depression

Item 1 Error 1

Item 2 Error 2

Item 3 Error 3

11

1

1

Measurement model

Structural model

Last week:

1. Observed variables

2. Unobserved variables

3. Drawing latent variable (draws latent variable and items)

4. Drawing path (causal relationship �regression)

5. Draw covariances (correlation, no direction)

6. Unique variable (error variable, add e.g. to each dependent var

7. List variables (open data file first, then drag and drop variabl

8. Select one object, select all, deselect

9. Move object

10.Delete

11.Select data file

12.Analysis properties (choose statistics)

13.Calculate estimates (starts the analysis)

14.View test (see results)

15.Copy graph in clipboard

16.Save

1 2 3

4 5 6

8 8 8

9 10

11 12 13

14 15 16

7

Page 2: amosweek2

2

Last week: SEM diagram symbols

1

1

1 1

Observed variable

Observed variable with measurement error (endogenous variable)

Latent variable with items (observed variables)

1Latent variable with disturbance or error

Unidirectional path (“regression”)

Correlation between variables

Reciprocal relation between variables

depresspain

Simple linear regresion

Error depression

1

depresspain

Correlation

depress

pain

function

error

1

Multiple linear regression

Last week: Correlation and Regression as AMOS path models

Endogenous variables have got error variances variables pointing at them = unexplained variance

Today

• Variance, covariance, correlation and regression coefficients

• SEM/path analysis is based on covariance matrix

• The Logic of Model Testing in SEM• Model fit and model comparisons• Simple latent trait models

Exercise

• Do a similar analysis as last week with data file: PATH-INGRAM.sav.

• The data are from: Ingram, K. L., Cope, J. G., Harju, B. L., & Wuensch, K. L. (2000). Applying to graduate school: A test of the theory of planned behavior. Journal of Social Behavior and Personality, 15, 215-226.

• Ajzen’s theory of planned behavior was used to predict student’s intentions and application behaviour (to graduate school) from their attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control.

Five Variables (derived from questionnaires)

• Perceived Behavioural Control (PBC) • Subjective norm• Attitude• Intention (to apply to college)• Behaviour (applications)

Ajzen’s theoretical model

• PBA, subjective norm and attitude influence intention• PBA, subjective norm and attitude correlate with each

other• Intention influences Behaviour• PBA also influences Behaviour

Page 3: amosweek2

3

Exercise

• Draw the path diagram for the model• (Conduct a path analysis with a series of multiple

regression analyses using SPSS.)• (Calculate the standardised indirect effects using the

standardised estimates from the regression analysis.)• Check your results using AMOS• Use a bootstrap analysis to evaluate the indirect effect.• Remove some indirect effects and compare the results

with the theoretical model.

Path diagram for AMOS

PerceivedBehaviorControl

Attitude

Subjective Norm Intention Behavior

e1

1

e2

1

Results

PerceivedBehaviorControl

Attitude

Subjective Norm

.60

Intention

.34

Behavior

-.13

.09

.81

.35

.51

.47

.67

.34e1 e2

Standardized Indirect Effects

.000-.044.033.282Behavior

IntentPBCSubNormAttitude

Standardized Regression Weights:

.005.555.092.336PBC<---Behavior

.013.548.075.350Intent<---Behavior

.002.985.596.807Attitude<---Intent

.430.314-.118.095SubNorm<---Intent

.293.126-.352-.126PBC<---Intent

PUpperLowerEstimateParameter

95%CI: (0.08-0.5) (-0.04-0.13) (-0.14-0.04)

P: 0.007 0.339 0.277

Main results: AMOS output

• How do we know that this model fits the data well?

• Are there better models? How can we compare two or more models?

• First we need to know a little bit about covariances…

Variances, Covariances and Correlations

SEM and path analysis are based on variances and covariances .

Variance is a measure of the dispersion of data. It indicates how values are spread around the mean.

Covariance is a measure of the covariation between two variables, such as pain and function.

Page 4: amosweek2

4

• Variance is defined as:

1

)(

)( 1

2

−=∑=

N

XX

XVar ii

Example: scores of pain and function

group2.521.510.5

scor

e

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

Centering

• We centre both variables = subtracting the mean from each individual score.

• We get a mean of 0 but same distribution around the mean and same variance

• Removes the constant in a regression and makes life easier for us.

group2.521.510.5

c_sc

ore

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

Variance of pain and function

Descriptive Statistics

50 49.45 4.482 20.08450 74.65 12.530 157.01250 .00 4.482 20.08450 .00 12.530 157.01250

painfunctionc_painc_functionValid N (listwise)

N MeanStd.

Deviation Variance

Scatterplot of pain versus body function (not centred)

Scatterplot of pain versus body function (centred)

c_pain1050-5-10

c_fu

nctio

n

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

R Sq Linear = 0.33

Page 5: amosweek2

5

Covariance

• The covariance is an unstandardised measure of association between two variables.

• measure of the degree to which x and y vary together

1

)()(

),( 1

−−=∑=

N

YYXX

YXCovi

ii

In our example the covariance between pain and function is 32.

This means if pain increases by 1 unit of variance (Variance of pain = 20), function will increase by 32:

c_pain1050-5-10

c_fu

nctio

n

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

R Sq Linear = 0.33

32

Covariance matrix• The covariance of variable X with itself is :

• Covariance matrix of pain and function:

• (= Variance/Covariance matrix)

)(1

)()(

),( 1 XVarN

XXXX

XXCovi

ii

=−

−−=∑=

15732Function

3220Pain

FunctionPain

Corrrelation

• The correlation coefficient r is a standardised measure of the association between two variables with a range from [-1,+1]:

• -1 = perfect negative association • 0 = no association (random)• +1 = perfect positive association

• If we standardise X and Y to new variables Zx and Zy to have a mean of 0 and a variance of 1 , then the Cov(Zx, Zy)=Corr(X,Y).

===)(*)(

),cov(

)var(*)var(

),cov(),(

YsdXsd

YX

YX

YXYXCorr

Correlation

• In our example the correlation between pain and function is 0.455.• The interpretation is:

If pain increases by 1 standard deviation (=sqrt(Var)), then body function increases by 0.455 SD.

• SD of pain = 4.5 and SD of function = 12.5• If pain increases by 4.5 then function will increase by

0.575*12.5=7.2

Regressoin coefficient b

• If we assume that variable X (pain) influences variable Y (function), then we can describe the relationship by a regression equation:

We can estimate the regression coefficient b by (based on the least squared method):

xby

c

xbcy

*

0

*

==

+=

)(

),(ˆXVar

YXCovb =

Page 6: amosweek2

6

)(

),(ˆPainVar

FunctionPainCovb = 605.1

1.20

25.32ˆ ==b

Coefficients a

5.8E-012 1.466 .000 1.0001.605 .330 .574 4.858 .000

(Constant)c_pain

Model1

B Std. Error

UnstandardizedCoefficients

Beta

StandardizedCoefficients

t Sig.

Dependent Variable: c_functiona.

15732Function

3220Pain

FunctionPainV/CV

ExampleWhat’s the regression coefficient b for the regression equation: function=b*pain?

Question• If we assume that function influences pain what will be b?

(pain = b*function)

157Function

3220Pain

FunctionPainV/CV

205.0157

25.32

)(

),(

)(

),(ˆ ====functionVar

functionpainCov

YVar

YXCovb

Coefficients a

-3E-012 .524 .000 1.000.205 .042 .574 4.858 .000

(Constant)c_function

Model1

B Std. Error

UnstandardizedCoefficients

Beta

StandardizedCoefficients

t Sig.

Dependent Variable: c_paina.

Extension to Multiple Regression

• In the case of multiple predictors (X1 and X2), b becomes a partial regression coefficient:

• Y=c+ b1 X1+ b2 X2

• Depression=c+ b1*Function + b2*Pain

• b1 is the average change in Y per unit change in X1 with X2 held constant.

• b1 is the average change in depression score per unit change in body function with pain held constant.

Partial regression coefficient is obtained by removing (partialing out) the correlation with other predictors.

The Point: Partial regression coefficients can be viewed as functions of operations on a correlation or covariance matrix .

ε+−+= functionpaincdepression *523.0*061.0

Optional

• How to calculate the partial correlation (partial covariance) and partial beta for standardised data simply from the correlation matrix (= covariance matrix for standardised data).

Optional: Partial correlation

– Partial correlation can be calculated just from the correlation matrix.

– Similar partial regression coefficients can be obtained from the Variance/Covariance matrix.

22|)1()1(

*

yzxz

yzxzxyzxy

rr

rrrr

−−

−=

2,

2,

,,,|,

)1()1(

*

functdeprfunctpain

functdeprfunctpaindeprpainfunctdeprpain

rr

rrrr

−−

−=

Optional: Example of partial correlation

• Find the correlation between pain and depression while partialling out the effect of function.

18.08.0

145.0

])421.0(1[*])455.0(1[

)421.0(*)455.0(337.022|, =−=

−−−−

−−−=functdeprpainr

Correlationmatrix

1 .337** -.455**.337** 1 -.421**

-.455** -.421** 1

paindepressfunction

pain depress function

**.

)1)(1(

*

,2

,2

,,,|,

functdeprfunctpain

functdeprfunctpaindeprpainfunctdeprpain

rr

rrrr

−−

−=

Correlations

1.000 .180. .028

0 146.180 1.000.028 .146 0

CorrelationSignificance (2-tailed)dfCorrelationSignificance (2-tailed)df

pain

depress

Control Variablesfunction

pain depress

Page 7: amosweek2

7

Optional: Standardised partial beta

221ˆ

:data d)transforme-(z edstandardis withmodel Regression

ZZZ xy ββ +=

22,1

2,12,1,1

1 xx

xxxyxyx

r

rrr

−−

=β 22,1

2,11,2,2 1 xx

xxxyxyx

r

rrr

−−

Partial standardized regression coefficients can be obtained from the correlation coefficients:

Conclusion: Variance/Covariance Matrix

• Knowing the Variance/Covariance matrix of our variables allows us to estimate our regression as well as our path and structural equation models.

• � All information for SEM is in the Variance/Covariance matrix

• We do not need the original data set to do our path analyses or SEMs.

• Raw data will be converted in a covariance matrix (and we can also just import a covariance or a correlation matrix into AMOS).

• (Sample size is needed for statistical tests)• Because the analyses are based on the covariances , SEM

is also called covariance structure analysis.

Correlation matrix

• If we use the correlation matrix instead of the covariance matrix, we would obtain the standardised beta coefficients.

• Knowing the variances of the original data allows to calculate the unstandardised regression coefficients form the correlation matrix.

• In general, correlation matrices may lead to imprecise parameter estimates and standard errors in complex models and variance/covariance matrices are preferred.

Aim of SEM

• The aim of SEM is often to find a model with the smallest necessary number of parameters which still adequately describes the observed covariance structure (‘reconstructed’ or ‘estimated’ covariance matrix based upon our theoretical model should resemble the observed covariance matrix).

• How do we know that a model is a good model and fits the data?

The Logic of Model Testing in SEM1. We start with our observed covariance or correlation matrix

for X1, X2, and X3:X1 X2 X3

X1 1.0 r12 r13X2 1.0 r23X3 1.0

1. We hypothesize a model to test: e.g. : X1 � X2 � X3

2. This model can be represented by the following equations:• ŕ12 = r12 (direct effect of X1 on X2) • ŕ13 = r23r12 (indirect effect via X2)• ŕ23 = r23 (direct effect of X2 on X3)

3. ŕij represent ‘reconstructed’ or ‘estimated’ correlations (covariances) based upon the theoretical model.

4. We compare the reconstructed with the observed correlations (covariances).

Observed correlation matrix (= covariance matrix with standardised variables)

1.000-.421.337depress

1.000-.455function

1.000pain

depressfunctionpainpain

function

depress

0,

error

0,

error2

1

1

Our hypothesized model:

Page 8: amosweek2

8

pain

.21

function

.18

depress

error

-.46 error2

-.42

This model can be represented by the following correlations (equations):

ŕ(PF)= -0.46 (direct effect of Pain on Function)

ŕ(FD) = r(FD)r(PF)= -0.46* -0.42 = 0.192(indirect effect of pain on depression via function)

ŕFD = rFD = -0.42 (direct effect of function on depression)

All variances are 1 (standardized).

‘Reconstructed’ or ‘estimated’ correlations based upon our theoretical model:

1.000-.421.192depress

1.000-.455function

1.000pain

depressfunctionpain

1.000-.421.337depress

1.000-.455function

1.000pain

depressfunctionpain

1.000-.421.192depress

1.000-.455function

1.000pain

depressfunctionpain

• Observed Correlations in Data

• Reconstructed Correlations based upon Path model

• Is the expected correlation matrix very different from the observed matrix (the more similar the better the model)?

• �e.g. χ2 goodness of fit test: χ2 = Σ(rij(o) – ŕij(e))2/ŕij(e))

• Next step: If our model variance/covariance matrix fits the observed data well, we can calculate the path regression coefficients and error variances from the matrix.

• In our simple example (without partial coefficients) correlation coefficients and standardised betas are identical.

• Again, all we need is the covariance matrix!

pain

.21

function

.18

depress

error

-.46 error2

-.42

Conclusion

� Path coefficients can be estimated using multiple regression methods (standardized partial coefficients) based upon a given model and can be used to “reconstruct” the correlation (or covariance) matrix.

� The “estimated” (reconstructed or expected) correlations can be compared with the observed correlations and a chi-square will show whether it fits.

� Important: a non-significant chi-square denotes good fit: The more similar observed and expected correlations, the smaller the Chi-square, the better the model.

model) eddf(saturat model) sizeddf(hypothe n

freedom of degrees n with

)(exp

)](exp)([ 22

=

−= ∑

ectedr

ectedrobservedr

ij

ijijχ

Our model is significant different from the observed covariance matrix. Therefore, it does not adequately describe the observed relationships in our data!

Chi Square (χ2) test for association

• most commonly used model fit statistics

• χ2 calculates the degree of discrepancy between the theoretically expected values vs. the empirical data

• The larger the discrepancy (independence), the sooner χ2 becomes significant

• Because we are dealing with a measure of misfit, the p-value for χ2

should be larger than .05 (at least 0.2) to decide that the theoretical model fits the data!

• However, overall χ2 is a poor measure of fit and with large n, χ2 will generally be significant.

• χ2 test can only be used to compare nested models (i.e.., identical but Model 2 deletes at least one parameter found in Model 1),

• Many other measures of model fit, each with their own assumptions and limitations, are developed.

Page 9: amosweek2

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Factor AnalysisAddresses these questions• Can the covariances or correlations between a set of

observedvariables be explained in terms of their relationshipwith a smaller number of of unobservable latent variables?• i.e does the correlation between each pair of observed

variablesresult from their mutual association with the latentvariables; i.e. is the partial correlation between any pair ofobserved variables, given the values of the latent variables,approximately zero?

Coefficient estimation methods

Estimation methods to minimize the discrepancy between the obtained covariance matrix and the covariance matrix implied by the model:

• Maximum Likelihood (ML)• Unweighted Least square method (ULS)• General Least Squared Method (GLS)• Scale free least square method (SLS)• Asymptotically distribution free (ADF)

(related to weighted least square method)

Parameter estimation methods

NNNNYInformation criteria measures (AIC/BIC)

YNNYYInference (chi2)

Standardise variables

Best precision if assumption met

1.5*p(p+1) (p=observed

variables)

>100>100>100>100Minimum sample size

YYNYYInvariance of scale

NNNYYAssumption of multinormal distribution

ADFSLSULSGLSMLMaximum Likelihood Estimation

• ML most commonly used method• Objective of maximizing the likelyhood of a parameter is to find a value that

maximizes the joint probability density function - = maximizes the likleyhoodof having observed the data (=finding parameters that make the predicted covariance matrix as similar as possibble to the observed onecovariancematrix).

• ML in AMOS assumes multivariate normal distribution and continuous data• = each variable should be normally distributed for each value of each other

variable, specifically ML requires multinormality of endogenous variables • often robust to violations of multinormal distribution and continuous data • Good method for missing data if missing at random (MAR): AMOS uses Full

ML• If ordinal data are used, they should have at least five categories and

skewness and kurtosis should be small (values in the range of -1 to +1 or -1.5 to +1.5).

• AMOS 7 can handle ordinal data “but” needs Bayesian estimation methods.

• Same visual inspection as for multiple regression: look at histogramms, QQ plots, Boxplots

• Test of overall model fit– Chi2 Test– Bollen Stein bootstrap

• Test of individiaul paramter estimates (regression coefficients or covariances):– C.R.: Critical ratio. The critical ratio is the

parameter estimate divided by an estimate of its standard error (z or t value).

– Bootstrap CI and Tests

Page 10: amosweek2

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• Simulation studies (see Kline 1998: 209) suggest that under conditions of severe non-normality of data, SEM parameter estimates (ex., path estimates) are still fairly accurate but corresponding significance coefficients are too high.

• � use bootstrap tests if possible

What is bootstrappingBootstrapping is a way of estimating standard error, confidence

intervals and significance based not on assumptions of normality but on empirical resampling with replacement of the data.

It has minimum assumptions: It is merely based on the assumption that the sample is a good representation of the unknown population

� We assume that the observed data resemble the true distribution.� generates information on the variability of parameter estimates or of

fit indexes based on the empirical samples, not on assumptions about probability theory of normal distributions.

� Bootstrapping in SEM still requires moderately large samples.� If data are multivariate normal, MLE will give less biased estimates.

However, if data lack multivariate normality, bootstrapping gives less biased estimates.

• The general bootstrap algorithm• 1. Generate a sample of size n from your data set with replacement.• 2. Compute your paramter of interest ˆ θ for this bootstrap sample • (e.g. do a SEM analysis and get a regression coefficent b)• � For each random sample we get a different parameter estimate. • 3. Repeat steps 1 and 2, 1000 time.• By this procedure we end up with 1000 bootstrap values ˆ θ∗ = (ˆθ1, ˆθ2, . . . , ˆθ1000 ). • Sort the bootstrap values from smallest to largest.• Using the sorted ˆθ1, ˆθ2, . . . , ˆθ1000 values, find the 2.5% ile value and the 97.5% ile

value. • Or simply the 25th and 975th observations from the sorted 1000 values.• Calculate the standard deviation of the 1000 ˆθ1’s. This is the estimate of the

standard error (se) of your parameter estimate b.• An approximate 2 sided 95% confidence interval is: B ± 1.96(SE). • Test statistic z=B/SE. If z>1.96, then p<0.05

Frequency distribution of the B's calculated using Bootstrap samples

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Value of Bi

Freq

uen

cy

Maximum Likelihood Estimation

• Violations of assumptions will cause an inflation of parameter estimates and chi2 values.

• �Lack of normality will cause a type I error (inflated chi2 values could lead to think that the model does not fit well)!

• Bollen Stein bootstrap or Satorra-Bentler (not in AMOS). adjusted chi2 can be used for inference if normal distribution assumption is violated.(but: see www.statmodel.com/chidiff.shtml)

• Use ADF estimation as a robust alternative.• Use other goodness of fit measures to evaluate models• Violations will tend to underestimate standard errors of

parameter estimates, which causes regression paths or covariances are found to be statistically significant more often than they should be (Type II error).

• � If possible use bootstrap tests and confidence intervals.

Goodness of fit measure based on predicted vs. observed covariance matrix

Not the most robust method, sample size dependent

Compare model with saturated, full model (e.g. all paths) or compare two nested models

P>0.2Chi2 Test

CriteriaGoodness of fit measure

Not in AMOSCorrects for kurtosis and bias

P>0.2Satorra Bentel corrected chi2

CMIN/DF in AMOS

Chi2 /degress of freedom

≤ 2.5Relative chi2

Chi2/df

robust method, does not assume multinormaldistribution, sample size dependent

Compare model with saturated, full model (e.g. all paths) or compare two nested models

P>0.2Bollen Stein bootstrap

Page 11: amosweek2

11

Goodness of fit comparisons between models

Similar interpretation as CFI:0.9= model is 90% away from saturated model

0.9=90% of covariation in data can be reproduced by given model

Similar to NFI but penalizes for model complexity and little affected by sample size,

≥ 0.9-0.95

TLI is the Tucker-Lewis coefficient(=non-normed fit index (NNFI))

Similar to CFI but more robust but underestimates fit if N is small

≥0.9Normed Fit index (NFI)

>0.9Incremental Fit (IFI)

Least affected by sample size

≥0.9Comparative fit index (CFI)

Goodness of fit measure

Goodness of fit measures based on predicted and observed covariance matrix but penalizes for lack of parsimony

(overfitting)

PRATIO * CFI

PRATIO * NNFI

PRATIO * BBI

Df model/df independence

Discrepancy per df (

Smaller is better-Parsimonious CFI

(PCFI)

Smaller is better-Parsimonious NFI

(PNFI)

Not in AMOS (?), >0.9Parsimony Index

Parsimony ratio (PRATIO)

Least affected by sample size, penalizes for lack of parsimony, compare different models (but information criteria better)

≤ 0.5Root mean square error of approximation (RMSE, RMR)

Goodness of fit measure

Goodness of fit measures based on information theory• Measures can be used to compare non-nested and

nested model, penalize for model complexity (overfitting), all need ML estimation

?Penalizes for sample size and lack of parsimony, penalty greater than AIC and BIC

May select too parsimonious models

Consistent AIC(CAIC)

Smallest model is most likely the true model among the set of models

Penalizes for sample size and lack of parsimony

May select too parsimonious models

Bayesian IC,(BIC)

Smallest AIC of a set of model is most likely the best model (not the true model)

Penalizes for lack of parsimony

May select more complex models

Aikaike’s IC (AIC)

Idea/PhilosophySelection criteriaProblemMeasure

Evaluation of fit of model structures

Model fit criteria do not specify which parts of the model may not fit.

Compare observed and model covariance:• Evaluate residuals matrix (residual covariance): should

be <0.1 better<0.05• Standardised residuals Critical Ratio: Estimate divided by its standard error. • If data are a random sample variables and multinormal

distributed, estimates with critical ratios more than 1.96 are significant at the .05 level and suggests important contribution to model. Use bootstrap methods with small sample sizes and/or nonnormal distribution.

Implied Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)

pain function depress pain 4.079

function -.397 .186 depress .259 -.121 .448

Residual Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)

pain function depress pain .000

function .000 .000 depress .197 .000 .000

Standardized Residual Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)

pain function depress pain .000

function .000 .000 depress 1.740 .000 .000

Observed (implied) covariance matrix and residual matrices

Residual matrices suggests that covariance depression and pain is not adequately modelled

4.93, 4.08

pain

3.10

function

3.25

depress-.65

0, .37

error

1

-.10

0, .15

error2

1

x=\agfi

Critical ratios (C.R.)

Regression Weights: (Group number 1 - Default model)

***-5.642.116-.652function<---depress

***-6.223.016-.097pain<---function

PC.R.S.E.Estimate

Page 12: amosweek2

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Exercise

• Check the model fit of Ajzen’s theoretical model• Try to find a better model (remove unnecaissary paths,

include necaissary path based e.g. on chi2 tests for nested models, residual covariance matrix, critical ratio, AIC, RMSE…)

Nested model comparison

• Amos examines every pair of models in which one model of the pair can be obtained by constraining the parameters of the other (e.g. removing one path = setting b to 0).

• For every such pair of "nested" models, a likelihood ratio chi2 test can be performed to see if the constrained model is not significantly better (=fits similar good as the more complex model).

• For non-nested models use AIC (or BIC). The smallest AIC is the best model. (see “Model selection course” or handouts on Biostatistics webpage for details)

Nested model comparison• Right click on path you want to restrict to 0 (=“delete”).• Enter name for path in “regression weight” box.

Nested model comparison

Alternate between output of default and model 2

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Nested model comparison• Double-click on “XX-Default model” box• Click “New” to create a new model and label it.• Constraint the parameter (your path in this example) to 0

(see box): sn_int=0 , you can add more than 1 constraint

Nested model comparison

• Go to “analysis properties”• Then run the model

Output I: Nested model comparison

• There was no significant difference between model 2 (without path sn� int) and model 1 (with the path):

• chi2(1df) =0.935, p=0.334. this suggests that the path from subjective norm to intention is not necaissary.

• Amos also reports the changes in the fit measures, NFI, TLI, RFI and IFI, They all increase which suggests a better fit.

Output II: nested models comparisons

• Select View/Set, Analysis Properties, Output tab and check "Tests for normality and outliers."

Assessment of normality (Group number 1)

5.3054.760Multivariate

6.2852.5227.8681.5794.4001.000depress

5.0792.039-7.484-1.5023.000.938function

-2.013-.808-.334-.0679.0001.000pain

c.r.kurtosisc.r.skewmaxminVariable

Quick introduction: How to define latent variables in AMOS:

Example: simple factor analysis: • Can we reduce the three variables into one factor (latent

variable) without loosing too much information?• = Factor analysis with Maximum likelihood estimation

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Latent variable in AMOS• Use button on top left (#3) to create a latent variable• Move variables into item boxed• Name error variable as e1,e2,e3• Name latent variable as “well-being”• Tick “standard estimates”, “squared correlations” and

“factor scores weight” in analysis property box

Well-being

pain

e1

1

1

depress

e2

1

function

e3

1

Factor analysis SPSS: SEM analysis AMOS:Communalities

.233 .365

.204 .312

.288 .568

pain

depress

function

Initial Extraction

Extraction Method: Maximum Likelihood.

Factor Matrix a

.604

.558

-.754

paindepress

function

1

Factor

Extraction Method: Maximum Likelihood.

1 factors extracted. 4 iterations required.a.

Well-being

.36

pain

e1

.60

.31

depress

e2

.56

.57

function

e3

-.75

• Latent variable models are a broad subclass of latent structure models . They postulate some relationship between the statistical properties of observable variables (or "manifest variables", or "indicators") and latent variables. A special kind of statistical analysis corresponds to each kind of the latent variable models.

Analysis of

Latent class analysis

Latent trait analysis

Categorical/(Ordinal)

Latent profile analysis

Factor analysis models

MetricalManifest

Categorical

Metrical

Latent

Checking assumptions of ML with AMOS

• Skewness and curtosis (peakedness of distribution) for each parameter should be within +/- 2

• Mardia's statistic measures of the degree to which the assumption of multivariate normality has been violated.

• Mardia's measure is based on functions of skewnessand kurtosis and should be less than 3 to assume the assumption of multivariate normality is met.

• Large values of Mardia’s value may suggest some multivariate outliers in dataset

• (Barbara G. Tabachnick and Linda S. Fidell (2001). Using Multivariate Statistics, Fourth Edition. Needham Heights, MA: Allyn & Bacon.)

• Multivariate outlier: an extreme combination, like juvenile with a high income. Observations farthest from the centroid under assumptions of multinormality.

•• Mahalanobis distance is the most common measure

used for multivariate outliers.• the higher Malanobis d-squared distance for a case, the

more likely to be a outlier under assumptions of normality.

• The cases are listed in descending order of Mahalanobisd2. Check if cases with the highest d-squared as possible (but not necaissarily) outliers. Consider cases as outliers if the MD are well seperated from other M. distances (Arbuckle and Wothke1999) .

• ML estimation requires indicator variables with multivariate normal distribution and valid specification of the model;

• Ordinal variables are widely used in practice: If ordinal data are used, they should have at least five categories and not be strongly skewed.

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Assumption of parametric tests

• Check assumptions as in any multivariable or multivariate analysis, see:– http://www2.chass.ncsu.edu/garson/pa765/assumpt.htm– Brian Everitt and Graham Dunn (2001) Applied

multivariate data analysis. Arnold– Barbara G. Tabachnick and Linda S. Fidell (2001).

Using Multivariate Statistics, Fourth Edition. Needham Heights, MA: Allyn & Bacon.)