Amit Bando - Asia Pacific Dialogue on Clean Energy Governance, Policy, And Regulation-1!6!12

7/31/2019 Amit Bando - Asia Pacific Dialogue on Clean Energy Governance, Policy, And Regulation-1!6!12

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Energy Efficiency: Role in Sustainable

Access in the Asia Pacific RegionAmit Bando, Executive Director


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What is IPEEC?1.

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IPEEC: High-level International Forum

Providesglobal leadership on energy efficiency by identifying andfacilitating government implementation of policies and programs

that yield high energy efficiency gains.

Promotes information exchange on best practices and facilitatesinitiatives to improve energy efficiency.

Reports to G20 Summit, Clean Energy Ministerial and others. Partners with industry to promote rapid deployment of energy

efficient technology.

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IPEEC is an Autonomous Entity

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Established in 2009 at the G8 summit in L'Aquila, Italy.The IPEEC Secretariat is located in Paris, France.

Members account for over 75% of world GDP and energy use

Italy

Russia

Japan

Republic of Korea

China

India

Australia

Germany

United Kingdom

France

Canada

USA

Mexico

Brazil

European Union


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Energy Efficiency:

More Than Just Energy Savings

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Government Action to Promote Energy Efficiency

Climate Change

Mitigation:Reduced GHG

Emissions

Sustainable

Development:Enhanced Energy

Access

Energy

Security:Reducing

Energy Use

Low Carbon EconomyImproved air quality

Jobs createdLower energy cost


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Definitions of Energy Efficiency Potential

National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (2007). Guide to ResourcePlanning with Energy Efficiency. Prepared by Snuller Price et al., Energy

and Environmental Economics, Inc. p. 2-2.

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Context01

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Urbanization Between 2005-2010, urban

population overtook the rural

population

rising from 49% to 51%

By 2030, a majority or 2.7 billionpeople will live in cities and towns

equivalent to adding a new townof 137,000 people every day for

next 21 years!

In the last two decades the Asia-Pacific urban proportion has risen by29%

more than any other region7

Urban population, Asia-Pacific subregions,

1990 and 2010

Source: Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2011, UNESCAP


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Energy Intensity

Today, Asia covers the lions shareof the worlds primary energy

consumption

Between 2007 and 2030, theregion is projected to account

for 45-50% of the increase inworld primary energy demand

Non-OECD Asian nations will leadindustrial energy demand by an

average of 2.3 to 2.6% per year

projected annual growth inOECD nations of 0.5% / year

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Global Primary Energy Intensity (2009)


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Energy Access Worldwide, 1.4 billion do not have access to electricity

Almost 800 million in Asia-Pacific By 2030, 1.2 billion people globally are expected to remain without electricity

most of them in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

Worldwide, 2.7 billion people rely on traditional use of biomass for cooking Almost 2 billion in Asia-Pacific

In Asia-Pacific, the number of people using biomass is likely to decrease fromthe current 1.937 billion to 1.769 billion

Global energy needs are estimated to grow > 50% developing countries contributing to nearly th of this increase

To meet the target of achieving universal access to modern energy services by2030, investments of US$ 756 billion (or US$ 36 billion per year) is needed

(Source: Energy Plus Report, UN, 2012)

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Energy Efficiency Trendsin the Asia Pacific Region02

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Energy Intensity Trends Global energy intensity has decreased by 1.4% p.a. since 1990 Largest reductions found in the regions with the highest energy intensities

(China, CIS and India)

Industry and power generation accounted for almost of that reduction(about 30% and 15%, respectively)

Per capita energy consumption to 2030 is likely to grow at about the same rateas in 1970 - 90 (0.7% p.a.)

Energy per unit of GDP continues to improve globally, and at an acceleratingrate

This acceleration is important as restrains the overall growth of primaryenergy.

Ex: During the 11th Five Year Plan in China, through various EE initiatives, energy

consumption grew at an annual average of 6.6% compared to average annual

growth rate of 11.2% for the national economy


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Energy Efficiency Regulatory Trends Globally

A EU Directive on the energyperformance of buildings (2009)

harmonised standards for new

buildings, making mandatory

buildings certificates for the sale or

rent of dwellings

In most countries, standards exist forboth dwellings and service sector

buildings, except in Africa and in Asia

where most often standards only

apply to non-residential buildings

Source: WEC Survey, 2010


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Energy Efficiency Regulatory Trends Globally - 2

EU has mandatory labellingfor several electrical

appliances

In OECD Asia and America,about 70% of the countries

have implemented labels for

refrigerators

In Africa, the Middle East andnon-OECD Asia, labels are not

widespread: they exist forrefrigerators in less than 20%

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Source: WEC Survey, 2010


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Energy Efficiency Market Penetration

Energy efficiency firms attracted nearly $1.1 billion inventure capital in 2010, almost double that of 2007.*

LIGHTING: LED is the fastest growing market at a CAGR of14.9% from 2011 to 2016

Asia will witness the highest growth (CAGR of 16.6%) BUILDINGS: EE market $87.0bn in 2012 GREEN IT: Cloud computing revenue to continue worldwide

growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.8%

Market increase: US$46 billion (2009) to US$210.3 billion (2015) EE measures could drive total data center energy expenditures down

from $23.3 billion in 2010 to $16.0 billion in 2020 (28% reduction in

GHG emissions from 2010 levels)

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Energy Efficiency Financing Trends

Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy deal value rose 40% year on year in2011

The rise was fuelled by a big increase in US$1bn plus deals - almost allfrom a wave of solar, EE and wind power deals

The total number of 2011 deals dipped 6% year on year but still high at 570 Rebounded in 2010 off the 2009 low of 319

Increased deal value is not just coming from the largest deals Median deal value rose 25% year on year, from US$28.1m to US$35.2m

Asia-Pacific targets accounted for US$4.6bn but Asia Pacific buyerscompleted US$9.4bn of transactions in 2011

Just under half of this bidder total was accounted for by the two bigEuropean purchases by Toshiba and China National Bluestar.


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Energy Efficiency Financing Trends

Asia Pacific deals by sector

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Source: Final Renewables Deals 2012 Outlook 2011 Review, PwC.


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ESCOs

The ESCO industry in Asia Pacific is poised to growFrom $3.0 billion in annual revenue in 2009 to $18.5

billion by 2016

421% increase from 2010 levels

Example: Despite not even being operational until 1998,

annual revenues for Chinas ESCO industry to reach $17

billion by 2015, increasing its share of the APAC regional

market to over 90% (Source: Pike Research).


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Sectoral Performance:Selected Overview03

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Zero Energy Buildings (ZEB)

ZEB market remains a small fraction of the overall buildingconstruction industry

Technologies required to make zero energy buildings possible,add significant upfront cost

Worldwide revenue from ZEBs will grow rapidly over the next twodecades, reaching almost $690 billion by 2020 and nearly $1.3trillion by 2035 (Annual growth rate of 43% - mostly in the EU).

EUs Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) will require

near ZEB construction in public buildings by 2019 and in all newconstruction by 2021.


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Lighting

Sales of LED lighting systems will increase rapidly over the next 10years, accelerating sharply after 2015

Unit shipments (lamps & luminaires) will rise from 66 million in 2011 to542 million in 2021 a 700% increase

Translating into cumulative revenues of $11 billion from 2011through 2021 for LED lighting in Asia Pacific

Japans 21st Century Light Project;

Chinas commitment to LED is enormous ex: Shenzhen plans to install

LEDs in more than 90% of public lighting applications, street lighting,

and commercial spaces in the next decade.


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Motors

Account for 60% of industrial electricity consumption and about 15% of finalenergy use in industry worldwide (IEA 2007)

Endusers now spend USD 565 billion per year on electricity used in motors; by2030, that could rise to almost USD 900 billion*

Electronic motor controls that allow for variable speed drives (VSD) have goodmarket potential

By 2030, if BAU, energy consumption will rise to 13 360 TWh per year and CO2emissions to 8 570 Mt per year

Using the best available motors will typically save about 4% to 5% of all electricmotor energy consumption

Linking these motors with electromechanical solutions that are costoptimisedfor the enduser will typically save another 15% to 25%

The potential exists to costeffectively improve energy efficiency of motor systemsby roughly 20% to 30%

Would reduce total global electricity demand by about 10%


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Smart Meters

In 2008, less than 4% of the global installed base of 1.5billion electricity meters could be considered smart

4 years later this penetration has grown to over 18%, andis expected to exceed 55% by 2020

The North American market has already peakedEuropean market has begun its growth period

The Asia Pacific region will continue to outpace all otherregions driven by major deployments in China, utilizing adifferent breed of smart meter technology


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Green Data Centers

Consume around 1.5% of the worlds energy Annual market opportunity exceeds $45 billion worldwide by 2016

The Asia Pacific region is projected to have the highest revenuegrowth through 2016 Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just under 30% (2011 2016)

Double-digit revenue growth is also projected for Europe andNorthAmerica (CAGRs of almost 27% for both markets)

If BAU continues, GHG emissions will be 1326 million tons of CO2e Best practices could reduce that by 13%


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Energy Efficiency Planning in Asia-Pacific

Increases sustainability Increases energy security Creates of market leader Increases energy access

Cost of investments Lack of skilled personnel Lack of consumer awareness

on need for Energy Efficiency

Weak in-country R & D

Increased value and lifespan Investment relief (tax) Market for new innovations Socio-economic co-benefits Competitive advantage

Rebound effect (effort does notreduce energy consumption as

planned)

Fall in energy prices leading toexpensive conservation


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Moving Forward

Providing an overarching policy framework combining mandatory andvoluntary policies and strengthening enforcement

Promoting greater awareness of EE Playing an essential role as integrator of the value chain Establishing funding mechanisms to jump-start EE financing

Particularly in the short term Institutionalizing standard-selling & enhancing professionalism within

the industry by creating proper accreditation & certification standards

Publicizing accurate information about EE product suppliers and ESCOs Removing/rationalizing other barriers that distort markets

Such as energy subsidies

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Moving Forward - 2

Move towards an integrated value chain approach where suppliersextend their service portfolio to offer complete solutions (auditing,

installation, maintenance and financing solutions)

Develop innovative financing vehicles for EE projects by collaboratingwith financial institutions & develop expertise in EE project financing

Increase awareness of EE and enhance industry professionalism Adopt a more active role in promoting EE and in professionalizing the

industry from within by setting standards and benchmarks energy

suppliers and ESCOs can lead effort

Bring in the best practices from experiences in other countries multinationals can act as catalysts

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Thank You!

Please contact us for further details:

Amit Bando: [email protected]

Tel: + 33 (0) 1 40 57 65 24

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Amit Bando - Asia Pacific Dialogue on Clean Energy Governance, Policy, And Regulation-1!6!12