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WILLIAM H. FREYBrookings Institution and University of Michigan

America’s Diversity Explosion:What it means for Presidential Politics

1980 2010200019901970 2020 2030 2040 20500

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225Millions

WHITES

MINORITIES

U.S. White and Minority Populations, 1970-2050

Source: Brookings analysis of U.S. Census data

3

1

2

3

Diversity by generation: From the bottom up

By generation: From the bottom up By dispersal: From the melting pots out

Cultural Generation Gap: U.S. Population Compositions by Age and Race, 2015

Source: American Community Survey, 2015

85+

65 – 84

50 - 64

35 - 49

18 - 34

5 - 17

Under 5

Age

Whites Blacks Asians Hispanics 2+ races Other races

Hispanic Concentration Areas and New Hispanic Destinations

Hispanic Concentration – modest growthHispanics comprise at least 16% of 2010 population and population increased by less than 43% between 2000 & 2010

Hispanic Concentration – fast growthHispanics comprise at least 16% of 2010 population and population increased by at least 43% between 2000 & 2010

New Hispanic destinationsHispanics comprise at least 16% of 2010 population and population increased by at least 86% between 2000 & 2010

Source: 2010 U.S. Census

America’s Racial Kaleidoscope: Counties where minorities are overrepresented

Source: 2010 U.S. Census

Black

Hispanic

Asian

Other minority

Two or more minority groups

None

Minority percentage of population

50+ %40-49%30-39%

20-29%10-19%0-9%

1980 2016

Reduced neighborhood segregation

Multiracial marriage and identity Extending the political battleground

Melting pot cities and suburbs

Implications for future presidential elections

3

Demographics of the 2016 election

2

Demographics of elections through 2012

1

Source: Current Population Survey, November 2004, 2008,  2012 and 2016  Supplements

BlackWhite Asian Latino Other races

Eligible Voters by Race, 2004‐ 2016

75.2 73.4 71.1 68.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

2004 2008 2012 2016

Percent

75% 73% 71% 69%

12% 12% 12% 12%

3% 4% 4% 5%

8% 10% 11% 12%

67 66 6460

65 66

47 50 48 44 48 47

Voter turnout by race in the 2004, 2008, 2012 presidential elections

Source: Current Population Survey, November 2004, 2008, 2012 Supplements

2004

2008

2012

WHITES BLACKS HISPANICS ASIANS

2004

2008

2012

2004

2008

2012

2004

2008

2012

Turnout rate80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-17 -12 -20

7791 87

18

3644

1227

47

Voting margin by race in the 2004, 2008, 2012 presidential elections

MoreDemocratic

MoreRepublican

Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported by CNN

2004

2008

2012

Margin100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

WHITES BLACKS HISPANICS ASIANS

2004

2008

2012

2004

2008

2012

2004

2008

2012

Voting margin by age group, 2012

WHITES MINORITIES TOTAL

Margin60

45

30

15

0

-15

-30

-7

-21 -23 -22

64 6357 58

23

7

-4-12

Ages 18-29

Ages 30-44

Ages 45-64

Ages 65+

MoreDemocratic

MoreRepublican

Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported by CNN

Presidential election results

Democrat win, due to whites and minoritiesDemocrat win, due to minorities but not whitesRepublican win

2004 2008 2012

Source: “America’s Electoral Future,” Brookings/CAP/AEI, February 2016

Implications for future presidential elections3

Demographics of the 2016 election2

Demographics of elections through 20121

States won by Donald Trumpand Hillary Clinton, 2016 Election

Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported in CNN Election Center (www.cnn.com/election).

Clinton (D) win – due to whites and minoritiesClinton (D) win – due to minorities but not whitesTrump (R) win

Source: Current Population Survey, November 2012 and 2016 Supplements

64% 66%

48% 47%

65%60%

48% 49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Voter Turnout by Race 2012 and 2016

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians2012 2016 2012 2016 2012 2016 2012 2016

-20

87

44 47

-20

81

38 38

Voting margins by race, 2012 and 2016

WHITES BLACKS HISPANICS ASIANS

MoreDemocratic

MoreRepublican

20122016

20082012

2004

2016

-11

-23

-4

-18-14

-26

-3

-37

White vote margins by education,2004-2016

White, college White, non-college

MoreRepublican

Percent of white residents without college degree

< 3030 - 4040 - 5050 - 60> 60

< 30%30% - 40%40% - 50%50% - 60%

> 60%

-11

-16 -15

-3

-21

-29

-16

-11

White vote margins in Midwestern swing states, 2012 and 2016

20122016

Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin

MoreRepublican

Population Profiles of Counties that Voted for Trump and Clinton*

Source: Author’s analysis of David Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections in 2016 and U.S. census population estimates, 2015.*Refers to total population (in millions) residing in counties that voted for Trump or Clinton.

TRUMP COUNTIES CLINTON COUNTIES

Age 85+

Age 75-84

Age 65-74

Age 55-64

Age 45-54

Age 35-44

Age 25-34

Age 15-24

Age <15

Age 85+

Age 75-84

Age 65-74

Age 55-64

Age 45-54

Age 35-44

Age 25-34

Age 15-24

Age <15

0 5 10 15 200 5 10 15 200 25

Whites Minorities

Whites

Minorities

(Millions) (Millions)

Democratic-over-Republican Margin, by Age Group, 2016

Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported in CNN Election Center (www.cnn.com/election). *Margin is defined by percent voting for Democratic candidate minus percent voting for Republican candidate.

Whites Minorities Total

-4

-17 -19

58 5852

46

19

10

-8 -7

-28

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Margin*

-10

-20

-30

Ages 18-29Ages 30-44Ages 45-64Ages 65+

Implications for future presidential elections3

Demographics of the 2016 election2

Demographics of elections through 20121

Projections for eligible voters by race

2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Hispanic

African-American

Asians and others

20

15

10

5

Percent of Eligible Voters

Source: Brookings, “Diversity Explosion”, 2018

45 - 64

2020

18 - 2920

25

30

35

2016

30 - 44

2024 2028 2032

Percent of eligible voters by age (%)

65+

2036

Source: Brookings, “Diversity Explosion”, 2018

Percent of Eligible Voters

Projected Eligible Voters, by Race and Age, 2016 and 2028

Source: Current Population Survey, November 2016 Supplement; author’s calculations based on U.S. Census Bureau projections.

Millions

Whites Blacks Asians Hispanics Other races

Ages 18-29 Ages 30-44 Ages 45-64 Ages 65+

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02016 2028 2016 2028 2016 2028 2016 2028

0

47 4953

62

7875

47

68

Minority Eligible Voters (%)

2016 2036

< 30%30% - 40%40% - 50%50% - 60%

> 60%

Election results assuming 2016 voting patterns

2020

279 - 259

2024

306 - 232

2028

322 - 216Source: “America’s Electoral Future,” Center for American Progress, Brookings, PRRI, and Bipartisan Policy Center

Voting Margins by Race

Black

Latino

White

Asian

‐20‐10

81 81

38 4038

54

2016 Presidential 2018 House

MoreRepublican

MoreDemocrat

White Margins by Age

2016 Presidential 2018 House

Age 30‐44

Age 45‐64

Age 18‐29

Age 65+‐4

13

‐17

0

‐28

‐19‐19‐13More

Republican

MoreDemocrat

White Margins by Education and Gender

Non‐college women

College men

Non‐college men

College women

‐48

‐34‐27

‐14‐14‐4

7

20

2016 Presidential 2018 House

MoreRepublican

MoreDemocrat

Election results assuming Non-college white swing to Republicans (+10 pts)

2020

209 - 329

2024

214 - 324

2028

214 - 324Source: “America’s Electoral Future,” Center for American Progress, Brookings, PRRI, and Bipartisan Policy Center

rr

WILLIAM H. FREYBrookings Institution and University of Michigan

America’s Diversity Explosion:How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America

WILLIAM H. FREYUniversity of Michigan and The Brookings Institution

The Impact of Changing DemographicsOn American Politics

Recent and Future Presidential Elections