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America in the Post Meltdown, Upside Down World:
Globalizing, Rebalancing and Innovating
Professor Peter BrewsKenan-Flagler Business School,
University of North Carolina at Chapel
Hill
World View Partners Program 10 August 2012
Outline
• Globalization
• America in the post meltdown, upside down world
• What must we all do?
• Questions
2
Globalization
3
← Pre 1800 and for all of human history 1800 and until 2012 →
Global Output Growth
|
The Human Struggle for Productivity
4
Global Output Growth
|1800
|1950
2012
2012
Pre Industrial Era: Pre 180070% of world populationSubsistence agriculture
No growthFailures
Industrial Era: 1800 - 195020% of world population
ManufacturingInput-led growth
Followers
Post Industrial Era: 1950 onwards10% of world population
ServicesInnovation-led growth
Leaders
The Human Struggle for Productivity: Eras, Population, Economics, Bases of Growth, and Status
Time
5
The Human Struggle for Productivity: Regional/National Positions
1800 1950 20121970
United States
Japan
USSR/Russia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Pre to Post Industrial Eras
Pre Industrial Era
Industrial Era
Post Industrial Era
1990
6
The Future of the Human Struggle for Productivity: the Life Cycle Model
Early Birth
High Growth
Maturity
Death/Decline
Time
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The Future of the Human Struggle for Productivity: the S Curve Model
←Time →
|2100
|1950
Global Output Growth
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Three scenarios over 21st Century:
Balanced Global Growth
Unbalanced Global Growth
Global Meltdown
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America in the Post Meltdown, Upside Down World
10
Why Upside Down?
CountryPublic Debt*
(% GDP)World
Rank**National Taxes/Govt.
Revenues (% GDP)***Budget
(% GDP)***Japan 208.20 2 33.6 (72) -8.90 (191)Greece 165.40 4 42.7 38) -9.60 (194)Italy 120.10 8 46.6 (28) -3.90 (125)Singapore 118.20 9 15.6 (192) 1.30 (32)Ireland 107.00 10 34.9 (67) -9.90 (199)Portugal 103.30 12 46.4 (29) -4.00 (131)Belgium 99.70 14 48.6 (23) -4.20(136)France 85.50 16 49.9 (21) -5.40(165)Canada 83.50 18 38.0 (56) -5.00(161)Germany 81.50 20 43.4 (33) -1.00(61)Great Britain 79.50 21 40.8 (46) -8.30 (187)Austria 72.10 27 48.3 (24) -3.30 (104)United States 69.40 29 15.3 (193) -8.60 (190)Spain 68.20 30 36.5 (61) -8.50 (189)Brazil 54.40 44 39.2 (49) 3.10 (22)India 51.60 48 11.7 (206) -6.70 (180)China 43.50 66 22.6 (140) -1.10 (62)South Africa 35.60 88 25.2 (126) -3.80 (120)World average 64.20 35 29.0 (96) -4.10 (134)
*Only public debt denominated in home currencies is reported. Private sector debt (regardless of currency of denomination) and government debt denominated in foreign currency are not included.
**Drawn from ranking based on 135 countries.***Figures in parentheses indicate ranking based on 210 countries.
Source: The World Factbook 2009, Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2009. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html, accessed 30 July 2012. Most estimates based on 2011 data.
11
The U.S. is in the worst shape it has been in for generations:
• 25 years living beyond means have finally caught up
• Out of balance economically, publically and privately
• Politically divided, facing legislative gridlock with little convergence at center
• Some core industries in recent trouble (banking, automobiles, construction, retail) and important support industries face serious funding issues (healthcare,
education, military…)
and
• Americans have also executed a series of hospital passes: healthcare, retirement, environment
12
Not really a credit crisis but over-consumption/living beyond means crisis: credit symptom, not cause
Two propositions:
• Americans could cut consumption by 20% and probably wouldn’t notice: 20% smaller houses, 20% smaller cars; 20% less food; 20% less clothing
etc.
• In face of global imbalances and global competition/scramble for resources, 2006/7 American consumption levels unsustainable
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U.S. Political Economy: Public Sector Imbalances
.
U.S. Federal Gross Debt as % of GDP: 1940-2009
Source: zFacts.com
15
US Gross Federal Debt is now around 100% of US GDP
Source: http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/downchart_gs.php?year=1792_2010&view=1&expand=
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U.S. Political Economy: Private Sector Imbalances
Source: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller
U.S. Macroeconomic data: Home prices, building costs, interest rates, population: until mid 2007
Source: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller
U.S. Macroeconomic data: Home prices, building costs, interest rates, population until mid 2011
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200
50
100
150
200
250
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Year
Inde
x or
Int
eres
t Rat
e
Pop
ulat
ion
in M
illi
ons
Home Prices
Building CostsPopulation
Interest Rates
Graph constructed by Professor Christian Lundblad, Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Consumption and GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Mortgage equity withdrawals are measured as the year-over-year change in mortgage debt (from the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds) minus 70 percent of residential
investment spending (from the BEA). (Source: L. Josh Bivens, Economic Policy Institute)
U.S. Macroeconomic data: Consumption and Mortgage Equity Withdrawals
20
Private sector imbalances:
• Private consumption expenditure sustained by freely available low cost capital, tax cuts, real estate asset bubble/boom, credit card debt
• World’s largest ponzi scheme ever operating between U.S. consumers and PRC
• U.S. private savings rate also very low/even negative over past decade
• 1990s dot.com boom was investment bubble; in 2000s cheap finance sustained consumption bubble; prosperity borrowed
U.S. Personal Savings Rates: 1959 – 2012 (as at 1 June 2012)
Source: Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, see http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=PSAVERT, accessed 31 July 2012.
22
Gross U.S. Government Savings: 1947 – 2012 (as at 1 January 2012)
Source: Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, see http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=GGSAVE, accessed 31 July 2012.
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Rebalancing adjustments needed:
• < 5 % in U.S. Consumption as % of GDP
• > 5 % in federal taxes as % of GDP (medium term)
• < 5% in entitlements as % of GDP
and
• < 20% in average U.S. body weight
This is my 5 5 5 plan for the United States
Would you vote for me?
24
Key Contingencies
• Where/when will U.S. housing market bottom be reached?
• At what level will more careful, de-leveraged Americans spend? (Consumption as % of U.S. GDP: 1953 – 1983, 61- 64%; 1995 67.5%; 2003 beyond >70%)
• How will U.S. Administration/Congress act
• To what degree/how quickly will others step in to replace lost American consumers (i.e. what is the Growth story?)
25
The U.S. cannot borrow, grow, vote, cut its way out of the current mess; painful adjustment will be required
More than likely both future entitlement expenditure as well as living standards of the average American will have to be curtailed
Cuts in govt. expenditure as well as tax increases will probably be required
26
For the sake of our children/grand children we must deal with our current economic imbalances (short term), as well as with Global
Warming/Climate Change (long term)
We are currently mortgaging their futures, economically and environmentally…
BIG TIME
27
But don’t go from irrational exuberance to irrational depression
It is only a question of balance...
28
What must we all do?
29
Why is Economic Globalization important to the State/Citizens of North Carolina?
• 20th Century economic globalization was supply seeking enterprise for Americans
• 21st Century economic globalization will be more a market seeking enterprise for Americans
• Can producers in America offer products/services/solutions others in the world want?
• But most important short term issue is getting America back to work: possibly by Americans, of Americans, for Americans
30
Political, community, and education leaders must ensure North Carolinians are ready to compete in the Post Industrial, globalizing, fast moving
world…
And that NC is an attractive location to live in, work in, invest in, holiday in, and retire in…
31
What must educators do?
• Prepare American human capital for knowledge intensive, creative work, so they can innovate at rates faster than others replicate; high level math and science skills are table stakes
• Instill discipline and deferred gratification into students so they make the educational investment and learn how to THINK, problem solve, research, imagine, create, connect dots etc.
• Develop curricula that prepare workers for 21st Century, high value creative work, or for working with smart machines and systems delivering smart goods, services, or solutions
• NC K-12 schools must give world class grounding in basic subjects across the spectrum, instill strong work ethic, sensitize students to global issues and cross cultural differences
• My contract with my children…
32
Potential jobs in the future ?
• New goods, services, or solutions (Post Industrial creative work);
• Building, maintaining, operating, improving machines that perform physical work (Post Industrial mechanical work);
• Helping industrial organizations negotiate the transition to Post Industrial status by finding more efficient ways to organize and produce existing products,
services, or solutions (Post Industrial transformational work); and
• Performing manual tasks machines do not do, or manually assisting machines in work they do (Post Industrial manual work)
33
• All must aspire to join Creative Cores of organizations they work for, and becoming Post Industrial entrepreneurial capitalists
• Know how to join Creative Core: technical/scientific vs. industry/ business knowledge route
• Big question for valuable 21st Post Industrial workers: do they have any ideas worth funding?
34
What should we all do individually?
• Live within our means, and demand our leaders do too
• Be realistic about situation, realize those who have may need to contribute a little more; those who want expect a little less
• Keep perspective - though America is out of balance the adjustment needed is not that significant compared to others
• Show some character, be part of the solution...
35
