Amazonas Center Manaus, Brazil Toward More Prosperous Cities:
Putting People First Wendell Cox 28 October 2013
Slide 2
Shanghai Large labor markets are the only raison dtre of large
cities. Alain Bertaud, World Bank WHY CITIES EXIST
Slide 3
Principal Priority of Government Improving Economic Well-Being
(Better standard of living, less poverty) Misplaced priorities
Slide 4
Athens LABELS: Smart Growth Growth Management Compact Cities
Urban Containment: Economic Threat IMPERATIVE TO STOP THE
SPREAD
Slide 5
Worlds Largest Cities (Urban Areas) 650 BC TO PRESENT Huge
Swings : 1000 to1500 High 1.1M Low 0.25M Example BELOW Hangzhou,
China (Largest Pre-19 th Century Urban Area (1300)
Slide 6
Manila Slum CITIES, ECONOMICS & POVERTY
Slide 7
Walking Mass Transit Highest National GDPs: 1500-2000 650 BC TO
PRESENT Auto PRINCIPAL MODE Figure 7 From Maddison (OECD)
Slide 8
Manila Prosperity is not Guaranteed ECONOMIC POLICIES
MATTER
Slide 9
9 Dhaka Dhaka Shantytown Up to 2M/Square Mile Economics: A
History of Poverty CANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTED
JAKARTA (CORE) SUBURBS & EXURBS Jakarta: Growth by Sector
1971-2010
Slide 13
Population by District: 1901-2011 MUMBAI METROPOLITAN REGION
OUTER MUMBAI INNER MUMBAI THANE RAIGAHR
Slide 14
Growing Megacities Becoming Less Dense
Slide 15
No Move from Suburbs to Core US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS:
2000-2010 Data from Census Bureau
Slide 16
Mumbai CITIES & URBAN CONTAINMENT
Slide 17
OUTSIDE UGB $16,000 Per Acre INSIDE UGB $180,000 Per Acre Urban
Growth Boundaries DESTROYING THE COMPETITIVE LAND SUPPLY Portland
Similar Results In London & and Auckland
Slide 18
Suburban Toronto (Newmarket) Statistics Canada: High Density 6+
Miles From Downtown Relies on Cars Density & Transit TRAVEL
PATTERNS NO DIFFERENT THAN LOW DENSITY
Slide 19
Preserving Agricultural Land AGRICULTURAL LAND TAKEN OUT OF
PRODUCTION 1950-2000 c Net new open space equal to Agricultural
productivity has doubled
Slide 20
CITIES & HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Kansas City Housing: Largest
Household Expenditure
Slide 21
Urban Containment Raises House Prices URBAN CONTAINMENT LAND
RATIONING Nick Boles UK Planning Minister Kate Barker Bank of
England Specious Planning Claim: No Consensus (Sun rises in the
west economics)
Slide 22
Land Rationing is the Issue DESTROYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Donald Brash, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand 1988-2002
Introduction to 4 th Annual Demographia International Housing
Affordability Survey... the affordability of housing is
overwhelmingly a function of just one thing, the extent to which
governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of
residential land.
Slide 23
Abandoning Urban Containment NEW ZEALAND, FLORIDA, SYDNEY Bill
English, Deputy Prime Minister New Zealand Introduction to 9 th
Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey Land
has been made artificially scarce by regulation that locks up land
for development. This regulation has made land supply unresponsive
to demand.
Slide 24
Measuring Housing Affordability: Median Multiple Median House
Price/Median Household Income (Used by UN, OECD and others)
Slide 25
Historic Median Multiple: 3.0 or Less Median House Price/
Median Household Income
Slide 26
Housing Affordability 1950-2012 MAJOR US METROPOLITAN AREAS:
MEDIAN MULTIPLE Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by
Median Household Income Figure 26 Greater Price Volatility
Slide 27
Portland: Cost of Housing HIGH POVERTY AREAS (1.5+ POVERTY
RATE): 1999-2009 Zip Code data from American Community Survey
2007-11 & 2000 Census Figure 27
Slide 28
Urban containment: incompatible with housing affordability
(Cheshire, London School of Economics )
_______________________________________________________________
Indeed, it is difficult to imagine another plausible cause of the
20082009 financial crisis.. In the absence of excessive controls,
housing construction would quickly deflate a speculative housing
price bubble. (Jansen & Mills, Northwestern University )
Consequences of Urban Containment ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Slide 29
London Reduced employment in Amsterdam/Rotterdam -Vermuelen
& Ommeren Netherlands Bureau of Econ. Rsch. Strong Land
Regulation: Less Growth INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH Higher unemployment
in the UK - Mayo & Angel World Bank 20% less job growth than
expected in metropolitan areas with strongest land use regulation
-Raven Saks US Federal Reserve Board Higher commercial Development
costs -Cheshire & Hilbur London School of Economics
Slide 30
CITIES & TRANSPORTATION Buenos Aires 16-Lane Freeway
Slide 31
Don Valley Parkway & GO Transit Train Why are All These
People on the Parkway? TRANSIT IS ABOUT DOWNTOWN
Slide 32
Transit: 45 Minute Job Access METROPOLITAN AREAS OVER
2,000,000: 2008 Average Transit Job Access: 5.6% (NYC: 9.8%)
Slide 33
Work Trip Market Share by Income US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS:
2006-2010 (ACS)
Slide 34
Democratization of Prosperity ASSOCIATION BETWEEN MOBILITY
& AFFLUENCE Chicago Reduced Minority Unemployment With Cars U.
of California PRUDHOMME Mobility Improves Productivity U. Of Paris
HARTGEN-FIELDS Mobility Improves Productivity Time is Money
Slide 35
One Way Work Trip Travel Time HIGH INCOME METROPOLITAN AREAS
> 1,000,000
Slide 36
Southern Greenland CITIES & SUSTAINABILITY
Slide 37
Perth, Australia Urban Containment: Ineffective & Expensive
COSTS PER TON MANY TIMES THE IPCC STANDARD
Slide 38
Driving Up GHGs Down: 2010-2040 US LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES (NEW
FUEL STANDARDS) Source: US Department Of Energy GHG Emissions
Driving (VMT)
Slide 39
From: EPA, DOE, TRB Urban Containment: Ineffective GROSS
EMISSIONS: REDUCTION FROM 2030 BASE
Slide 40
Dubaii TOWARD MORE PROSPEROUS CITIES
Slide 41
Standard of Living at Stake IN AN ALREADY CHALLENGING
ENVIRONMENT Demographics Pensions Public Debt
Slide 42
The issue is not. Urban sprawl Urban design Transit versus cars
The issue is PEOPLE Standard of living Reducing poverty Putting
People First THE NEED FOR RATIONAL PRIORITIES Chicago
