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Alternative Growth FuturesStudio
Alternative Growth FuturesStudio
University of Colorado at Denver
Sponsors:Custer Heritage Committee
San Isabel Foundation Sonoran Institute
Alternative Growth Futures Studio
Alternative Growth Futures Studio
The following is a presentation of a growthmodeling study on Custer County, Colorado.The study: Explores historical growth trends. Presents methods for analyzing growth pressures. Models growth based on statistical analysis. Presents alternative visions for future growth. Graphically displays specific growth scenarios utilizing GIS
(Geographic Information Systems).
Alternative Growth Futures Studio
Alternative Growth Futures Studio
Project: explore alternative development scenarios for Custer County
Model: create and analyze digital maps of growth options
Custer CountyThe past…Custer CountyThe past…
In 1870, Custer County had almost no year round residents.
By 1893, over 9,000 people called Custer County their home.
It will happen again ...
Custer CountySince 1990…Custer CountySince 1990…
The county’s population has more than doubled.
88% of all privately held land has been sold.
45% of land buyers purchased 35+ acre parcels.
Over 12,000 acres have been developed.
Custer CountyThe future…Custer CountyThe future…
By the year 2025:
– Population is likely to increase to 8,147
– 4,122 new homes are likely to be built
– The county will be more urban than it is today. There will be a stoplight!
Alternative Growth FuturesObjectivesAlternative Growth FuturesObjectives
To present methods for analyzing growth and development pressures.
To define alternative visions for future development within the county.
To make forecasting tools available to the county.
Alternative Growth FuturesAssumptionsAlternative Growth FuturesAssumptions
The year 2025: Population (currently 3,760 residents) will increase to
8,147 residents There will be 4,122 new households 7,047 of all residents (86%) will live in unincorporated
parts of the county
Statistical ModelStatistical Model
Evaluates historical patterns of development Ranks all parcels according to development
probabilities Projects growth into the future based on
scenarios Basis for policy simulation
Alternative Growth FuturesScenariosAlternative Growth FuturesScenarios Four development scenarios describe anticipated growth
to the year 2025:
– Historical Patterns– Open Space and Agricultural Protection– Cluster – Current Market Trends
ALL SCENARIOS ASSUME THE SAME NUMBER OF NEW HOUSEHOLDS.
Alternative Growth FuturesScenariosAlternative Growth FuturesScenarios
Historical Patterns
13 ac/ du None
Open Space and Agricultural Protection
13 ac/ du Yes
Cluster High Yes
Current Market Trends
35 ac/ du None
Scenarios Density Resource Protection
Historical Patterns ScenarioHistorical Patterns Scenario
Averages historical development patterns across the county
Ranks parcels according to probability of development
Open Space and Agricultural Protection Scenario
Open Space and Agricultural Protection Scenario Development locations constrained by resource values Resource values defined by agricultural lands, natural habitat and water availability
Agriculture Habitat WaterHayfields T&E Habitat YieldRangeland Game Habitat DepthLow Slopes Rare Plants
Cluster ScenarioCluster Scenario
Increases density of new development
Constrains location of growth by resource protection
Cluster Development Cluster Development
A well-planned cluster development concentrates development in suitable areas of a subdivision while preserving surrounding lands with highest resource value.
Cluster DevelopmentCluster Development
Effects of Cluster DevelopmentEffects of Cluster Development
Site Acreage
(AC)Roads (AC)
Developed area (AC)
Open space (AC)
Total dwelling
units35 acre 1695 32.89 1695 0 4010 acre 1695 17.17 400 1288 401 acre 1695 6.77 40 1648 400.25 1695 1.81 10 1683 40
Density Options for a 40-Unit Subdivision
Effects of Cluster DevelopmentEffects of Cluster Development
Development Option (ac)
Number of People
Number of Dwelling Units
Developed Site Acreage Roads (ac)
35 acre 4500 2250 78,750 1850 acre1 acre 4500 2250 2250 3810.25 4500 2250 563 102
Density Options Countywide
Cluster DevelopmentCluster Development
Potential to: Accommodate projected future population Decrease infrastructure requirements. Preserve ranchland and open space.
Current Market Trends ScenarioCurrent Market Trends Scenario
Captures current market preference for larger lot development.
Average density of 35 acres / dwelling unit. Assumes zoning change to permit PUDs
Impacts to Local ResourcesImpacts to Local Resources
Acreage lost to development (based on Current Market Trends Scenario):
Resource Acreage LostHayfields 29,873Rangeland 93,632T&E Species Habitat 17,635Game Species Habitat 10,601
Current Development: 3-D Flythrough of Custer County
Current Development: 3-D Flythrough of Custer County
Current Market Trends Scenario: 3-D Flythrough of Custer County
Current Market Trends Scenario: 3-D Flythrough of Custer County
Alternative Growth FuturesSummaryAlternative Growth FuturesSummary Most of the private land in the county will be
developed by 2025 under current market trends
Current land markets favor development outside of towns at very low density (average lot sizes of between 15 and 40 acres)
Alternative Growth FuturesSummaryAlternative Growth FuturesSummary
It may be impossible to sustain a viable ranching economy in the county without strengthening zoning protections.
Higher density development permits the county to absorb the same number of homes while protecting natural resources.
What is important to you?