Alternative Energy - ( by Ph.D. Atta - Ur _ Rahman )

8/14/2019 Alternative Energy - ( by Ph.D. Atta - Ur _ Rahman )

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Science & Technology ----Science & Technology ----

Imperatives for Socio-Imperatives for Socio-

Economic DevelopmentEconomic Development

Atta-ur-RahmanAtta-ur-RahmanPh.D. (Cambridge), Sc.D.Ph.D. (Cambridge), Sc.D.

(Cambridge)(Cambridge)

Federal MinisterFederal Minister

&&Chairman, Higher Education Commission ,Chairman, Higher Education Commission ,Government of PakistanGovernment of Pakistan

President, Pakistan Academy of SciencesPresident, Pakistan Academy of SciencesCoordinator General, COMSTECHCoordinator General, COMSTECH


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VISIONVISION

Economic development is no longerdependent on natural resources(eg.Japan,European countries)

KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGEhas now become the mainhas now become the maindriving force of world economies anddriving force of world economies andhence the basis of socio-economichence the basis of socio-economicdevelopmentdevelopment

INDUSTRIALIZATIONINDUSTRIALIZATIONis the key to highis the key to highGDP growth (through production & exportGDP growth (through production & exportof high value-added goods (engineeringof high value-added goods (engineering

goods,pharmaceuticals,IT,Biotechnology,goods,pharmaceuticals,IT,Biotechnology,etc.)etc.)


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The World Today

` Over 6 billion people inhabit the earth, an increase of 140

per cent over the past fifty years

` One Fifth of humanity survive on less than one dollar a

day

` About 1.1 billion people lack access to safe drinking water

` 7.7 million children die before their first birthday

` 25% of 4,630 mammal species and 11% of 9,675 bird

species are on the verge of complete extinction

` 20-30% population of Sub-Saharan Africa is HIV positive.


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The World in Next 50Years` Population 9.5 Billion by 2050

` Fossil Fuel Resources 80% Reduction by 2050

` Rain Forests 45% Reduction by 2050

` Life Expectancy Closer to 100 years

` Urban Population More than 60% globally


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Living in a Changing

World-----the only constant is change

New biology is decoding the blue print of life,

learning to manage the placement and

expression of genes and mobilizing

microorganisms to do our work for the

production of new products

New innovations are altering and expanding

the notions of development.


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Living in a ChangingWorld

Technology is the great divider---the rich are getting richer and the

poor, poorer

World is inflicted with poverty,

hunger, disease, conflicts, violence,

& economic uncertainty


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Exciting HorizonsExciting Horizons

Genomics---plant and animal structureGenomics---plant and animal structure

The living cellcancer, ageingThe living cellcancer, ageing

Neuroscience, The human brain---the final frontier?Neuroscience, The human brain---the final frontier?

Apoptosis ,structure-function relationships---new species!!Apoptosis ,structure-function relationships---new species!!

Material Sciences (nano-science)Material Sciences (nano-science)

Alternative energy (Hydrogen fuel cells, biomass-AmsterdamAlternative energy (Hydrogen fuel cells, biomass-Amsterdam,wind, water, solar),wind, water, solar)

Robotics, machine intelligenceRobotics, machine intelligence

Dark matter---Higgs boson---birth of universe---black holesDark matter---Higgs boson---birth of universe---black holes


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NANOTECHNOLOGY


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MATERIAL SCIENCES


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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY


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SPACE

SCIENCES


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GDP OF ISLAMIC WORLDGDP OF ISLAMIC WORLD

THE TOTAL GDP OF ALL OIC MEMBERTHE TOTAL GDP OF ALL OIC MEMBERCOUNTRIES IS ONLY USD 1200bln---LESSCOUNTRIES IS ONLY USD 1200bln---LESSTHAN HALF OF GERMANY(USD 2500bln)THAN HALF OF GERMANY(USD 2500bln)AND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF JAPANAND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF JAPAN

(USD 5000bln)!!!----INSPITE OF OUR(USD 5000bln)!!!----INSPITE OF OURHAVING OVER 70% OF THE WORLDSHAVING OVER 70% OF THE WORLDSENERGY RESOURCES AND A QUARTERENERGY RESOURCES AND A QUARTEROF THE WORLDS POPULATIONOF THE WORLDS POPULATION

JAPAN HAS VIRTUALLY NO NATURALJAPAN HAS VIRTUALLY NO NATURALRESOURCES BUT OVER 1000 UNIVERSITIESRESOURCES BUT OVER 1000 UNIVERSITIES(OVER 120 IN TOKYO ALONE)----IN CONTRAST(OVER 120 IN TOKYO ALONE)----IN CONTRASTONLY ABOUT 500 UNIVERSITIES IN ISLAMICONLY ABOUT 500 UNIVERSITIES IN ISLAMIC

WORLD!!WORLD!!


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Expenditure on Defense,Health and R & D (African OIC Countries)

3

2

0.1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Defense Health R & D

% of GDP

Source: Strategy for the Development of Science & Technology in Islamic Countries


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Expenditure on Defense,Health and R & D (Arab OIC Countries)

7.1

1.250.2

0

24

6

8

Defens

e

Healt

h

R&D

% of GDP

Source: Strategy for the Development of Science & Technology in Islamic Countries


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Strategy forStrategy forEconomic Development HE,S&TEconomic Development HE,S&T

11069.2Iran

13919.6Saudi Arabia

1524.4Norway

OIC Countries

95150Pakistan

18565.7Turkey

1745.3Denmark

2088.1Austria

24810.2Belgium

Knowledge Based Economies

GDP(Billion US$)Population(Million)Country

Source: Human Development Report 2001


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Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan -Transition from Agriculture to

Knowledge-Based Economies

1960 : Over 50% of GDP contributed by

Agriculture.

2000 : Only 5-10% of GDP contributed byAgriculture, Over 50% of GDPcontributed by Engineering Goods,Electronics, etc.

12


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It is possible for countries to catch up (eg. East AsianTigers, China etc.)

Chinas Strategy---the Five Pillars

c) Massive Human Resource Development

d) Highest priority to Science & Technology

e) Promotion of Hi-Tech Industries

f) Emphasis on Value-added Agricultureg) Self-reliance in Defense Manufacturing

Last two hundred years: One key lesson:

3


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In the new century, innovations in science andIn the new century, innovations in science andtechnology will be key not only to health of thetechnology will be key not only to health of the

environment but to miraculous improvements in theenvironment but to miraculous improvements in thequality of our lives and advances in the economy.quality of our lives and advances in the economy.

PRESIDENT OF USAPRESIDENT OF USA

State of the Union Address, Jan 27, 2000State of the Union Address, Jan 27, 2000

..The three top priorities of my government areThe three top priorities of my government areEDUCATION, EDUCATION & EDUCATION..EDUCATION, EDUCATION & EDUCATION..

Tony BlairTony Blair

Policy Announcement 2000Policy Announcement 2000


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Impact of just one institution----MITImpact of just one institution----MIT

MIT graduates and faculty have foundedMIT graduates and faculty have founded4000 companies4000 companies

Employ: 1.1 million peopleEmploy: 1.1 million people

Annual Sales: $232 billionAnnual Sales: $232 billion

GDP contribution: $116 billionGDP contribution: $116 billion

Collectively these companies are the 24thCollectively these companies are the 24thlargest economy in the World!largest economy in the World!


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Imperatives for Socio-EconomicImperatives for Socio-Economic

DevelopmentDevelopment

Socio-EconomicDevelopment

Central Role of HigherEducation/

Technology Development

In National Plans--VISION!!!!

Linkages Between Applied Researc& Industrial DevelopmentGovt.Facilitating Policies

Quality /RelevanceOf Education/Research

STANDARDS!!

Budgetary Allocations(Min.2% of GNP)-

The-catch-up game!

Gl b l l ti f bi t h


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Source: International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications

Global plantings of biotech cropsincreased by 12 percent in 2002

58.7

52.6

1.711

27.8

44.2

39.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Global Area of GM Crops

M

illionHecta

res

Products on the market 25


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2.6Fan Industry

600Automotive Industry

30Surgical /Electro Medical Instruments

83Ceramics

186Contract Manufacturing / Outsourcing

630Pharmaceutical / chemicals

1,500Electronics / Home Appliances / Components

WorldMarkets, 2004

US$ (B)

Engineering Goods

World Engineering Sector

63% of world trade is in manufactured goods, and electronics hasmajor share of it.

39

WORLD ELECTRONICS


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Major Opportunities:

Contract Manufacturing: US$ 186 b (2004), US$ 500 b (2010).

ICTs: ~US$ 130B worldwide

Electronics / Chip Design : US$ 90 b in 2004

Software development :US$ 1300 by 2006

Electronics Services ( call centres, digital archiving)

WORLD ELECTRONICS:

Shift in Markets / Production by Region & Sector

World Markets: 2004: US$ 1500 b; (~90% in N. Amer, EU, Japan)

2006-07: US$ 1900 b: Their share will fall to ~70%

Major Share: Consumer Electronics, Computers, Telecoms.

SHIFT TO CHINA ~22% of world production in 2004

41


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Biologicals in DevelopmentBiologicals in Development

In development

Approved

80

12

132

16

143

22

234

31

284

40

1989 91 93 95 96

350

65

98

Source: PhRMA,

369

75

00 02

371

85

Source: European Commission


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Biotech

20%

Conventi

onal

80%

Medicines Market 2004-5

p


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Med. BT IndustryMed. BT Industry

260 mn helped worldwide 125 drugs / vac approved

by FDA

350 drugs in clinical trials


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Pakistan---A Promising ProgramPakistan---A Promising Program

S&T Budget increased 6000%!!!S&T Budget increased 6000%!!!

Higher Education budget increased 1,200%!!!Higher Education budget increased 1,200%!!!

Full support fromFull support from PresidentPresident of Pakistanof Pakistan

A real beginning after 50 years of lip serviceA real beginning after 50 years of lip service

Strategy


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AgricultureAgriculture Diversification::(spices,nuts,medicinal/aromatic plants,oil-Diversification::(spices,nuts,medicinal/aromatic plants,oil-

producing plants,tea,fruits)producing plants,tea,fruits)

Value Addition(agro-food industry,silk production,healthValue Addition(agro-food industry,silk production,healthfoods,preserved fruits etc.)foods,preserved fruits etc.)

IndustryIndustry Diversification Diversification Shipping, Automobile Manufacture, EngineeringShipping, Automobile Manufacture, Engineering

Goods, Chemicals/ Pharmaceuticals, Household Appliances,Goods, Chemicals/ Pharmaceuticals, Household Appliances,Transportation Equipment, Telecommunication Equipment etc.Transportation Equipment, Telecommunication Equipment etc.

ServicesServices

Banking, Transportation, Communication, TourismBanking, Transportation, Communication, Tourism

Enhancing GDP:Enhancing GDP: S&T Integrated into NationalS&T Integrated into NationalDevelopment StrategyDevelopment Strategy

Strategy


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HEC Plan of ActionHEC Plan of Action

ACCESS / QUALITY / RELEVANCEACCESS / QUALITY / RELEVANCE

Faculty DevelopmentFaculty Development

InfrastructureInfrastructure (Free Access to Literature(Free Access to LiteratureFree Access to Sophisticated Instruments,Free Access to Sophisticated Instruments,Technology Assisted Learning)Technology Assisted Learning)

Focused Support in Key AreasFocused Support in Key Areas

Linkages to the EconomyLinkages to the Economy

Quality AssuranceQuality Assurance


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Action Plan (Continued)Action Plan (Continued)

Focused Support in Key AreasFocused Support in Key Areas Industrial RelevanceIndustrial Relevance

Agriculture, Engineering, IT, Bio-tech, BasicAgriculture, Engineering, IT, Bio-tech, Basic

Sciences, Social Sciences / Economics /Sciences, Social Sciences / Economics /Humanities, NursingHumanities, Nursing

Strengthening of Centers of ExcellenceStrengthening of Centers of Excellence

Linkages to the EconomyLinkages to the Economy Developing the Culture of InnovationDeveloping the Culture of Innovation

Steering Committee for Univ-IndustrySteering Committee for Univ-IndustryLinkagesLinkages


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August 14, 2000

29 Cities

S S S


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FASTEST INTERNETSPREAD!!

97% of thepopulation

UNCTAD

report 2003

>35%

ahead of

regional

countries!!

Oct 2003:1600 locations

97% Population Access to

the Internet

UNCTAD Report 2003UNCTAD Report 2003


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UNCTAD Report 2003UNCTAD Report 2003Information & Communications Technology developmentInformation & Communications Technology development

IndexIndex

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

America United Kingdom Japan Korea

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Malaysia Pakistan India Bangladesh

Connectivity Access Policy ICT Diffusion


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Pl ti tPl ti t


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Plummeting costs.Plummeting costs.

Cost /E1

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Mar-0

0

May-0

0Jul-0

0

Sep-00

Nov-0

0

Jan-01

Mar-0

1

May-0

1

US

$Cost /E1

Startpoint

Today

June 2000:US$ 87,000/E1 August 2001:US$ 6,000

October 2004 : US$ 3,800

Aiming for US$ 2,500/2 Mb/s IP!


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Internet user growthInternet user growth

Internet users

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,0001,000,000

Jan-95

Jan-96

Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Internet users

StartpointToday

June 2000:130,000 Oct 2004: 6,800,000

Actual users

more than 6

Million!

Dial up

C ll l l iC ll l l i


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Cellular explosionCellular explosion

Cellular Users

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

J

an-95

J

an-96

J

an-97

J

an-98

J

an-99

J

an-00

J

an-01

J

an-02

Ce

llularUsers

Cellular Users

Start point

Today

CPP

Jan 2001:225,000 Oct 2004:3, 550,000

Multiplied 500% in the

last 18 months ascompared to the whole of

the last 11 years


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Paksat 1Paksat 1

Ku BandKu Band

C-BandC-Band


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INCENTIVES TOINCENTIVES TO


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INCENTIVES TOINCENTIVES TO

SCIENTISTS/ACADEMICSSCIENTISTS/ACADEMICS

RESEARCH PRODUCTIVITY ALLOWANCERESEARCH PRODUCTIVITY ALLOWANCE((National Ranking System IntroducedNational Ranking System Introduced))

TENURE TRACK SYSTEMTENURE TRACK SYSTEM (salaries 4 times that(salaries 4 times that

of government ministers !)of government ministers !)

MASSIVE RESEARCH FUNDING (upto UsdMASSIVE RESEARCH FUNDING (upto Usd100,000 per project, USD 600,000 per100,000 per project, USD 600,000 per

international linkage program)international linkage program)

50%REDUCTION OF INCOME TAX50%REDUCTION OF INCOME TAX

F lt D l tFaculty Development


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Faculty DevelopmentFaculty Development

MechanismMechanismResearch Grant ProgramResearch Grant Program

Technological Infrastructure EnhancementTechnological Infrastructure Enhancement

Laboratories ImprovementLaboratories Improvement

Access to InformationAccess to Information

Support for Research ActivitiesSupport for Research Activities

Post-Doctoral FellowshipsPost-Doctoral Fellowships

Qualification Improvement OpportunitiesQualification Improvement Opportunities

Targeted support of Disadvantaged Universitys facultyTargeted support of Disadvantaged Universitys faculty

Ph.D. Student SupportPh.D. Student Support

Teacher TrainingTeacher Training

Linkages to IndustryLinkages to Industry


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Faculty DevelopmentFaculty DevelopmentDevelop a strong base of Ph.D. levelDevelop a strong base of Ph.D. level

highly qualified facultyhighly qualified faculty

Indigenous Scholarship ProgramIndigenous Scholarship Program (200 to(200 to1500/yr.)1500/yr.)

Foreign Faculty Hiring-Foreign Faculty Hiring---reversing the brain--reversing the braindrain! (249 have returned---others coming!)drain! (249 have returned---others coming!)

Foreign Ph.D. Scholarship ProgramForeign Ph.D. Scholarship Program (sending(sending15,000 students for Ph.D. level training15,000 students for Ph.D. level trainingContractual tenure track system-Contractual tenure track system---international--internationalassessmentassessment


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Creating the Environment!Creating the Environment!

Free access to 17,000 full textinternational journals

Free access to sophisticated

instrumentation

Centralized instrumentation facilities

Availability of trained technicians

Scholarships to students---admissions onmerit and merit alone!


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PERN ---ApplicationsPERN ---Applications

Digital Library Access to InformationDigital Library Access to Information

Virtual UniversityVirtual University

Satellite Internet DeliverySatellite Internet DeliveryRemote Lecture ProgramRemote Lecture Program

University Information ManagementUniversity Information Management

SystemSystem


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ResultsResults

44% Increase in ISI abstracted44% Increase in ISI abstractedpublications----rate of increase highest inpublications----rate of increase highest inIslamic worldIslamic world

Young men and women have startedYoung men and women have startedopting to adopt careers in S&T subjects asopting to adopt careers in S&T subjects asfirst choicefirst choice

Landscape of Universities has begun toLandscape of Universities has begun tochangechange


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KeyKeyss to Successto Success

Courage to dream great dreamsCourage to dream great dreams and hard and hardwork/tenacity to transform them in to realitywork/tenacity to transform them in to reality

Identifying andIdentifying and groominggrooming thethe bbrightestrightest

mmanpoweranpower---merit based system---merit based systemFocusing onFocusing oncutting edgecutting edge ttechnologiesechnologies ininmarket oriented disciplinesmarket oriented disciplinesMMoving fast!oving fast! but--- sense of urgency must bebut--- sense of urgency must be

combined with striving for perfectioncombined with striving for perfectionOptimismOptimism ---Taking failures as challenges---Taking failures as challenges

Focus----Focus-----Focus !!Focus----Focus-----Focus !!

ImmediateImmediate ActionsActions by Internationalby International


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CommunityCommunity

1) Promote1) Promote Centers of ExcellenceCenters of Excellence ininDeveloping CountriesDeveloping Countries

2) Promote an2) Promote an International LinkageInternational Linkage

Program ---linking institutions inProgram ---linking institutions indeveloping countries with those in thedeveloping countries with those in theWest----80:20 contributions!!West----80:20 contributions!!

3) Set aside significant portion of3) Set aside significant portion ofDevelopment Assistance for aDevelopment Assistance for a massivemassivescholarship programscholarship program



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Community (contd)Community (contd)

ProvideProvide Access to International Journals/DataAccess to International Journals/DataBasesBases as part of Developmental assistance (oras part of Developmental assistance (oras policy eg.HINARI)as policy eg.HINARI)

PromotePromote Distance LearningDistance LearningPromotePromote free access to internationalfree access to international

lectures/lecture materialslectures/lecture materials ( MIT Open( MIT OpenCourseware ) to be replicatedCourseware ) to be replicated

Subsidize publishersSubsidize publishers for selling cheap text booksfor selling cheap text books

in developing countriesin developing countries

International CommentsInternational Comments


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International CommentsInternational Comments

Editorial inEditorial in NatureNature ----29----29thth

January 2004:January 2004:

Rahman has convinced Musharraf and a deluge ofRahman has convinced Musharraf and a deluge of

money and new initiatives has poured out. Ministry of Sciencemoney and new initiatives has poured out. Ministry of Science

and Technologys annual budget has increased 60 foldand Technologys annual budget has increased 60 fold

compared with 1999; researchers have an opportunity to morecompared with 1999; researchers have an opportunity to morethan double their earnings if they publish more in peer-than double their earnings if they publish more in peer-

reviewed journals; funds have been released for many morereviewed journals; funds have been released for many more

Ph.Ds. to be trained at home and abroad; plans are well underPh.Ds. to be trained at home and abroad; plans are well under

way for a free digital library for all educational institutions;way for a free digital library for all educational institutions;

there is a new scheme to attract researchers from overseas to work inthere is a new scheme to attract researchers from overseas to work inPakistan---------------------------------------------------------------------------Pakistan---------------------------------------------------------------------------


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Alternative Energy - ( by Ph.D. Atta - Ur _ Rahman )