Alfredton West| Retail Assessment - City of Ballarat

MacroPlan Australia Setting New Standards

Alfredton West| Retail Assessment

PREPARED FOR Roadcon Group MACROPLAN AUSTRALIA PTY LTD SYDNEY |MELBOURNE | BRISBANE |PERTH

Setting New Standards

FINAL REPORT April 2008

MacroPlan Australia


Disclaimer

© MacroPlan Australia Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system, or translated into any language in any form by any means without the written permission of MacroPlan Australia Pty Ltd. Intellectual Property Rights All Rights Reserved. All methods, processes, commercial proposals and other contents described in this document are the confidential intellectual property of MacroPlan Australia Pty Ltd and may not be used or disclosed to any party without the written permission of MacroPlan Australia Pty Ltd.

PROJECT MANAGER Brian Haratsis Managing Director MELBOURNE

Contact Information

MELBOURNE Level 4, 356 Collins Street, Melbourne, Vic. 3000 t. 03 9600 0500 f. 03 9600 14776 e. [email protected] w. www.macroplan.com.au

Signed+

…………………………………….……. 28 April 2008

+ SYDNEY Fairfax House Level 5, 19-31 Pitt Street, Sydney, NSW. 2000 t. 02 9252 1199 f. 02 9241 6002

Roadcon Group


Contents

Executive Summary ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1

1 Context -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3 1.1 Background-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3 1.2 Site context--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3 1.3 Policy framework and literature review ---------------------------------------------------------4

2 Trade area and expenditure --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.1 Main Trade Area identification ----------------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.2 Population: existing and forecast-------------------------------------------------------------- 12

2.2.1 Socio-economic review---------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 2.2.2 Population forecasts-------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13

2.3 Expenditure pool ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 2.3.1 Real growth in retail expenditure----------------------------------------------------------- 15

3 Retail floorspace need ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18

4 Key considerations--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22

5 Conclusions ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 5.1 Total expenditure pool across Ballarat West ----------------------------------------------- 23 5.2 Development potential & staging ------------------------------------------------------------- 23 5.3 Recommendation --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24

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Roadcon Group


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‘The Sturt Street site is in an excellent location to provide for

Alfredton’s immediate and emerging

retail needs’


Roadcon Group Page 1


Executive Summary

1. Roadcon have engaged MacroPlan Australia to undertake an assessment of the need for a town centre and retail floorspace in Alfredton. Alfredton has undergone significant residential development over the last few years and is set to grow considerably, being a major facilitator of growth in Ballarat’s west.

Context and site

2. There is currently no retail servicing the specific needs of Alfredton residents. Household formation has recently been stronger than original projections by the State Government in the major growth areas of Ballarat, suggesting that there is considerable ongoing demand for retail floorspace in Ballarat’s west.

3. The subject site for the assessment is located on the south-western intersection of Sturt Street and Dyson Drive and will be in an excellent position, with access to key infrastructure such as water and electricity allowing for immediate development.

Literature Review

4. Upon a literature review, it can be concluded that the development of a supermarket-based neighbourhood shopping centre on the subject site is consistent with the sound planning and economic principles detailed in:

• City of Ballarat Retail Development Strategy, 2003 (BRDS)

• Ballarat West Local Structure Plan, 2007 (BWLSP)

• Ballarat Transport Strategy (BTS)

5. In addition to a policy review, MacroPlan has considered the Ballarat West Local Structure Plan – Alfredton Review by Essential Economics on behalf of Tract Pty Ltd, as an input to this retail assessment.

6. The BWLSP (page 50) identifies the subject site location as a preferred development location. Furthermore, the Essential Economics review indicates that approximately 35,000m2 of total retail floorspace could be generated by a resident catchment of 15,000 persons. Of this floorspace, there is potential for 10,500m2 to be serviced locally. This is broadly consistent with the findings of this review, although the Essential Economics Report uses a different catchment area (Alfredton North).

Retail Demand Drivers

7. Recent statistics released by the ABS confirm the strength of population growth in Ballarat West and in Alfredton, specifically:

• Population is expected to increase in Alfredton from 5,795 persons in 2006 to 8,871 in 2016. This equates to a growth rate of 4.35% per annum.

• The total retail expenditure pool is expected to grow from $67 million in 2006 to $130 million in 2021 for all categories in the Main Trade Area (MTA) which is defined in the report. Further, the expenditure pool for supermarket and groceries is expected to grow from $31 million in 2006 to $59 million in 2021.



Floorspace Estimates and Staging

8. Taking into account likely market shares that have been assumed for the trade area, the growth in the expenditure pool within the MTA will generate potential for nearly 10,000m2 of Convenience and Speciality floorspace across Alfredton This floorspace could be accommodated at one location or across the subject site and the Cuthbert’s Road site by 2021.

9. Depending on how this floorspace is allocated across the suburb, this retail could be provided in the form of: one full line supermarket of 4,000m2, one limited line supermarket of 1,800m2, 1-2 mini majors, 25-30 specialities and around 500m2 of professional services.

10. Given the location of the site, there is already enough demand for one full line supermarket of 3,500m2-4,000m2 in the area as well as 15-20 specialty stores.

Key Considerations

11. The subject site has been identified in the Ballarat West Local Structure Plan as the preferred site for development to meet Alfredton’s retail needs.

12. The subject site is in an excellent position to service Alfredton’s immediate and emerging retail needs.

13. The site has the infrastructure, such as access to gas, water and electricity, in place to be developed immediately, subject to rezoning.

14. There is a substantial amount of vacant land surrounding the site, which would allow for the expansion of services and functions to meet the future needs of a growing community.

15. The importance of developing a retail hub with critical mass is highlighted by the benefits that will be derived for the environment, and will act as a catalyst for creating a sense of community.

16. It is important to consider the implications of development adjacent to the Ballarat West Growth Corridor, which has the potential to limit and jeopardise the long term growth prospect with in the region.

Recommendation

17. MacroPlan have identified the requirement for around 10,000m2 of Convenience, Specialty and Supermarket retail floorspace in Alfredton. If this floorspace was all located at the Dyson Drive site there would be a need to rezone at least 40,000m2 (4 hectares) to Business Use 1 land to meet this need.

18. If the 10,000m2 of retail floorspace is delivered across the Dyson Drive / Sturt Street and Cuthbert’s Road sites, the balance of the 4 hectare site could accommodate other business uses including office. An appropriate timing for this centre at capacity would be 2016.

19. The advice on retail floorspace requirements at Alfredton is based on the continued strength of population growth in the area and a requirement to provide an adequate volume of retail floorspace to service the needs of residents.



1 Context

Roadcon have engaged MacroPlan Australia to undertake an assessment specifically of the need for retail in Alfredton now and into the future. Alfredton has undergone significant residential development over the last few years and is set to grow considerably, being a major facilitator of growth in Ballarat’s West. It is important to note that there is currently no retail servicing the specific needs of Alfredton residents. The subject site, on the south-western intersection of Sturt Street and Dyson Drive, is in an excellent position, with access to key infrastructure such as water and electricity. This ensures that the site is ready for immediate development.

1.1 Background

Household formation almost doubled what was projected by the State Government in the major growth areas of Ballarat, suggesting that there is considerable ongoing demand for retail floorspace in Ballarat’s west. The Ballarat West Growth Corridor represents a significant growth area within Ballarat, accounting for around 20% of total municipal population growth.

The justification for the development of a neighbourhood centre has resulted from this population growth, which in turn will stimulate growth in retail expenditure. Present centres identified in Ballarat form a network around the City Centre, with subregional and neighbourhood centres being dispersed through the suburbs. Currently, the total retail provision in the City of Ballarat is 207,870m2. Ballarat’s central business area has an estimated 500 stores totalling 115,740m2 of retail floorspace as well as government, community, health and education services.

There is one sub-regional centre located in Ballarat. A sub-regional shopping centre typically ranges between 10,000m2 and 30,000m2, has at least one discount department store, one major supermarket and around 40 specialty stores. Stockland Wendouree has a retail floorspace of approximately 22,100m2. Major tenants include Kmart, Coles and Safeway as well as specialty stores.

A neighbourhood (town) centre has been proposed at Delacombe, and is highlighted in the BWLSP to service the neighbourhoods of Delacombe North and Delacombe South (p49). It is expected to provide a main retail centre of up to 15,000m2 as well as a higher order community centre and signature park.

There are also a number of neighbourhood centres located throughout Ballarat. These are: Sebastopol North, Sebastopol, Midvale Shopping Centre, Ballarat Marketplace, Northway Shopping Centre, Howitt Street Shopping Centre and Delacombe Neighbourhood Centre. Typically a neighbourhood centre has around 10,000m2 of retail floorspace and contains a supermarket and approximately 35 specialty stores.

The Ballarat CBA and the proposed Delacombe Town Centre will meet the higher order needs of Alfredton residents, while the proposed centre at the subject site will meet the daily and weekly needs of residents in the trade area.

1.2 Site context

MacroPlan Australia has undertaken an independent review of the subject site to be considered for development of neighbourhood retail facilities at Alfredton. The site is located on the south-western intersection of Sturt Street and Dyson Drive to the west of Alfredton.



The subject site is an excellent location for the provision of neighbourhood shopping facilities to serve the current and future needs of the Alfredton community.

The site is located on a major arterial road (Sturt Street) within the Ballarat Road network. This location offers prime exposure and the opportunity for excellent local traffic management. These are essential attributes to modern retail operators and reflect community expectations and preferences for access to retail facilities.

The site has the land area and configuration to meet both the current and future needs of a neighbourhood shopping facility in the community. This will allow for proper managed planning of a superior Neighbourhood shopping centre that has flexibility to grow and adapt over time.

A residential catchment for the site exists immediately to the east of Dyson Drive. However, development to the west of Alfredton is also considered to be a fundamental part of the Ballarat West LSP, with provision of an extensive amount of low and medium density in the area.

The site has also the advantage of being located close to community facilities including Ballarat High School, Ballarat Golf Course, Lake Wendouree and Ballarat Aquatic Centre.

Figure 1. Alfredton Neighbourhood Centre Site

Source: MacroPlan Australia (2008)

1.3 Policy framework and literature review

The development of a supermarket based neighbourhood shopping centre on the subject site is consistent with the sound planning and economic principles detailed in:

City of Ballarat Retail Development Strategy, 2003 (BRDS)

Ballarat West Local Structure Plan, 2007 (BWLSP)

Ballarat Transport Strategy (BTS).



As part of this study, MacroPlan have also reviewed the following document:

Ballarat West Local Structure Plan – Alfredton Review by Essential Economics Pty Ltd, 2007.

The consistency of the proposal with these four documents is discussed below.

City of Ballarat Retail Development Strategy (BDRS), 2003

The BRDS states the following (on pages 94 and 95):

“The analysis undertaken in this report indicates that one new supermarket-based shopping centre will be required to serve the future retail shopping needs of residents in the growing community at Alfredton.

However we provide the following list of considerations that should be the basis for planning for the centre:

The centre should be located to serve the catchment upon which it is based, and should therefore have consideration to the typical travel patterns of residents

A site that is centrally located within the Alfredton area may, in theory, be easily accessible by people in the area, but may have disadvantages in terms of requiring residents to travel outbound away from the urban area

A main road site is preferable to ensure that the centre has an opportunity to capture trade from passing traffic, and to ensure good exposure and access, and provides a potential for public transport access

Planning for the site should recognise the long term future expansion patterns of the urban area at Alfredton

Co-location with other community facilities such as schools, etc is an advantage as it provides an opportunity for shoppers to undertake multi purpose trip; however, the planning process should recognise that trips to supermarkets are often undertaken as weekly single-purpose trips, augmented by more regular “top up” convenience shopping

Given these planning principles, potential sites could include a location on:

Sturt Street / Burumbeet Road (although there would be significant constraints here associated with the Avenue of Honour);

a site on Cuthberts Road located close to the school; a site in the vicinity of Carngham Road and Dyson Drive (which could also service the expanding Delacombe area); or

a site closer to the intersection of Cuthberts Drive and Dyson Drive.

Other locations may also be considered in local planning for the new centre, including potential for a site on Gillies Street or Learmonth Street, although these locations would have to be assessed for the extent to which they appropriately serve the Alfredton catchment.

As a result of this assessment, we make the following comments regarding potential actions to be undertaken by Council:

Support the provision of a new supermarket based shopping centre as part of detailed planning for the future development of Alfredton

Encourage a site location that balances the access requirements of the Alfredton catchment and the market requirements of a shopping centre developer



Undertake appropriate planning for a shopping centre site as part of detailed local planning for the future development of Alfredton

The BRDS identifies the need to develop a supermarket anchored neighbourhood shopping facility in the range of 5,000m2 to 7,000m2 in Alfredton/Delacombe (page 68). However, it also highlights that further planning work should be undertaken to ascertain the most appropriate location for the shopping centre in Alfredton. The BWLSP has accordingly been prepared and adopted by the City of Ballarat following the BRDS.

Furthermore, it is evident that a key criterion for siting of the facility is its ability to cater for the long term planning of Alfredton, as nominated locations are centralised between the existing and future catchment. The subject site has good exposure, is located on a main road and can be serviced by public transport. In relation to the Ballarat West region, the subject site is conveniently located in proximity to the Wendouree commuter train station. In addition, the subject site can be co-located with other facilities as recommended in the Plan, including schools and community facilities.

Ballarat West Local Structure Plan (BWLSP), 2007

Section 11.2.3 (p50) of the BWLSP states the following in relation to the provision of retail facilities in Alfredton.

Alfredton Neighbourhood Centre

One higher order neighbourhood centre has been provided for Alfredton with an area of approximately 6,500m2 of floorspace.

The desirable location in Alfredton is on the northern portion of Dyson Drive near the intersection of Sturt Street.

The “main” town centre should be developed on “traditional neighbourhood design” principles providing a range of services, including retail and community services.

Alfredton is significantly advanced in development and by promoting development to the west of Dyson Drive provides the distinct advantage of being able to centralise the neighbourhood centre.

Regardless of the pace of growth, a supermarket based centre is needed in the short term for the existing Alfredton community (Essential Economics 2006)

In addition to the retail component, the centre should incorporate;

• Council community site of 0.7 ha

• Local “feature park” for the town centre

• Protection and enhancement of the Avenue of Honour”

As highlighted above, the BWLSP provides strong support for the provision of a town centre at the corner of Sturt Street and Dyson Drive. As with the BRDS, the benefit of centrally locating the facility between existing and future residential areas is specifically noted in the BWLSP.

The BWLSP also confirms the need for a facility in the short term, for existing residents in the locality.

Furthermore, the BWLSP makes the following comment regarding Cuthberts Road in Alfredton (page 50):



The size of the retail component of this centre will be the subject of further investigation but should range between 2,300m2 and 3,700m2.

In addition to the retail component, the centre includes:

• Community centre site of 0.7ha – community centre able to be built in stages.

• Local “feature park” for the town centre.

The BWLSP identifies likely hierarchy of retail floorspace components for nominated centres within the plan area (page 51) as follows:

Location Retail floorspace (m2)

Alfredton 6,500

Alfredton – Cuthberts Road Up to 3,700

Delacombe North x2 1,000-1,5000

Delacombe Town Centre 15,000

Sebastapol West up to 1,000



Figure 2 portrays the location of the subject site (Alfredton), Cuthbert’s Road and Delacombe sites. As highlighted in the table above, the BWLSP proposes a total of up to 10,200m² at Alfredton including:

6,500m2 at Alfredton (the subject site)

Up to 3,700m2 at Cuthbert’s Road

A larger neighbourhood centre of around 15,000m2 has also been proposed at the Delacombe site.

The plan does not specify timing and staging for the retail assessment. MacroPlan assumes this report was undertaken as a capacity analysis for the Alfredton area.

Figure 2. Structure Plan map of site

Subject Site (Alfredton)

Cuthberts Road Site

Delacombe Site

Source: Ballarat West Local Structure Plan, April 2007 (BWLSP)

Ballarat Transport Study

The Ballarat Transport Study supports land use development that utilises logical, efficient and convenient road hierarchies to link residents with retail facilities. The subject site is a superior location for neighbourhood shopping facilities given its access to existing and future planned road networks.



BWLSP – Alfredton Review by Essential Economics, 2007

MacroPlan Australia has examined a review by Essential Economics on behalf of Tract Pty Ltd. The paper is a review of the Ballarat West Local Structure Plan, focusing on Alfredton specifically and was undertaken in March 2007.

The review estimates that Alfredton North and Alfredton West will have a combined longer-term population of approximately 15,000 people when fully developed. The report estimates that the catchment will generate demand for approximately 35,000m2 of retail floor space, of which 30%, or approximately 10,500m2, would be satisfied locally.

A Town Centre on Sturt Street has been identified as “Option 1” in the review, in the same location as the subject site. The Town Centre has been specified to provide for some 6,500m2 of retail floorspace to be complemented with a small neighbourhood centre on the corner of Cuthberts Road and Dyson Drive comprising (up to) a further 3,700m2 of retail floorspace.

It should be noted that any differences between our report and the Essential Economics Report are based on a difference in the development location. While the Essential Economics report has assumed development to be largely in Alfredton North, MacroPlan have assumed development to be focused primarily in the West where there is a much greater land mass.

Literature review – conclusion

In summary, this review has found that the Ballarat West Local Structure Plan (2007) supports the subject site at the south-western intersection of Sturt Street and Dyson Drive as the preferred location for the proposed centre (page 50).

The plans have each identified a likely retail floorspace requirement for the locality of Alfredton. These have been summarised in the following table:

Document Location identified Floorspace requirement identified

City of Ballarat Retail Development Strategy, 2003

Alfredton/Delacombe Neighbourhood shopping centre of around 5-7,000m2

Ballarat West Local Structure Plan, 2007

Alfredton A higher order neighbourhood centre, with total area of approximately 6,500m2 and a retail component of between 2,300 and 3,700m2 for the Cuthberts Road site (subject to further investigation)

Ballarat West Local Structure Plan – Alfredton Review by Essential Economics, March 2007

Alfredton North/Alfredton West Approximately 10,500m2

In addition, the review by Essential Economics highlights some of the key locational advantages of the subject site, and as highlighted in the table above, the BRDS highlights the need for a neighbourhood centre of around 5-7,000m2 to serve future urban growth at Alfredton.



2 Trade area and expenditure

This section reviews the key drivers of demand for retail spending and growth in the Ballarat West area. Accurate representation of the demand framework for a particular development is critical in ensuring the future sustainability of both that centre and its competitors.

2.1 Main Trade Area identification

The trade area for a neighbourhood centre development is a geographic region from which a centre draws the vast majority (i.e. up to 95%) of its trade. The size of the trade area is dependent on a wide range of variables. Given the range of factors considered, particularly the variable factors of potential centre and tenant types, the total main trade area identified for the purpose of modelling future retail demand is made up of a Primary Trade Area (PTA) and a Secondary Trade Area (STA) to form the Main Trade Area (MTA).

The PTA is predominantly derived from the residents of Alfredton and Alfredton West. The STA extends approximately 14kms west and 13kms from north to south, providing for the shopping requirements of residents in peripheral regional areas adjoining the Old Western Highway (including Cardigan Village). The extent of the trade area in this circumstance is considered to be conservative, particularly given the regional designation for the proposed development.

Upon updating the population from 2001 figures to 2006 it became evident that variations between 2001 CCDs and 2006 CCDs had occurred. The trade area defined in this study reflects 2006 CCDs. As a result, the Secondary Trade Area (STA) has extended further south, below the Primary Trade Area, and further north to include relevant CCDs. The extension of the trade area causes a slight increase in the population catchment, which will be reflected in the current and forecast populations.

The main trade area discussed above is illustrated in Figure 3.



Figure 3. Alfredton Main Trade Area

Source: MacroPlan Australia, 2008



2.2 Population: existing and forecast

2.2.1 Socio-economic review

Based on the ABS 2006 Census, MacroPlan have undertaken an analysis of the socio-demographic data characterising the suburb of Alfredton:

Median annual individual income per capita in Alfredton ($24,440) was higher than both the average for Ballarat ($21,008) and Victoria ($23,712);

On average, there were a greater number of persons per household sizes in Alfredton (2.97) compared to both Ballarat (2.56) and Victoria (2.64);

There were a higher proportion of couple families with children in Alfredton (52.7%) compared to both Ballarat (42.2%) and Victoria (46.9%);

Compared to the Victorian average, there was a higher proportion of separate housing, and a correspondingly lower proportion of semi-detached, townhouse, flats, units and apartments compared to both Ballarat and Victoria.



Table 1. Socio-demographic table, Alfredton

Alfredton (Suburb)

Ballarat (LGA)

Victoria

Population and Households

Persons (usual residents) 5,796 85,196 4,932,422

Number of households 1,952 33,163 1,968,384

Average Household Size 2.97 2.56 2.64

Income and Wealth

Median annual individual income 24,440 21,008 23,712

Variation from VIC average +3% -11%

Median annual household income 58,396 43,628 53,144

Variation from VIC average +10% -18%

Age Distribution

0-4 years 6.1% 6.3% 6.2%

5-14 years 16.9% 13.5% 13.1%

15-24 years 15.5% 15.7% 13.7%

25-54 years 39.9% 39.2% 42.5%

55-64 years 9.1% 10.5% 10.8%

65 years and over 12.4% 14.8% 13.7%

Median age of persons 36 36 37

Family Type

Couple families with children 52.7% 42.2% 46.9%

Couple families without children 32.6% 37.5% 35.9%

One parent families 13.7% 18.6% 15.4%

Other families 1.1% 1.7% 1.9%

Dwelling Type

Separate house 88.3% 85.6% 76.4%

Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse etc 3.4% 3.7% 9.2%

Flat, unit or apartment 8.2% 10.1% 13.4%

Other dwellings 0.2% 0.6% 0.9%

Source: MacroPlan (2008)

2.2.2 Population forecasts

I.d. Consulting forecasts have been used to forecast population growth beyond 2006 and they cover the twenty year period from 2006 to 2021. Applied to Alfredton specifically, the i.d. Consulting forecasts estimate the current population to be 5,795 persons, with growth of approximately 3.9% per annum between 2006 and 2021. i.d. Consulting estimate Alfredton’s population will reach 8,871 by 2016, with need for an average of 126 new households per annum, a growth of 4.95% per annum. This is significantly higher than the City of Ballarat’s average population and household growth rates, which i.d. Consulting forecast at 1.15% per annum and 1.58% per annum respectively over the period 2006-2016.



I.d. Consulting growth rates and population estimates are provided in Table 2. The forecasts are based on a “bottom up” methodology, taking into account local land release information to estimate future population growth.

Table 2. Population in Alfredton

Existing Forecast2006 2011 2016 2021

Primary Trade Area 5,795 7,482 8,871 10,313Secondary Trade Area - West 1,599 1,672 1,756 1,845Main Trade Area 7,394 9,154 10,627 12,158

Source: i.d. Consulting (2006), MacroPlan (2008)

2.3 Expenditure pool

Aside from cyclical macro economic conditions, affecting the wealth and spending abilities of the community, dramatic changes in retail demand occur, in the main, as a result of growth or decline in a population. While compositional changes of a population and changing consumer preferences influence the format and offer of retail available, it is population growth that primarily drives additional demand.

Due to the regional location of the development, the sources of future retail demand will be derived from two distinct groups:

Existing residents residing in established residential areas

New and potential residents attracted to new residential subdivisions and estates.

As such, the assessment of trade area growth, spending, retail sustainability and the implications for the future retailing network for the proposed Alfredton Neighbourhood Centre has been undertaken in this manner.

The expenditure pool from which the proposed centre will draw trade can be expected to increase in future years as a result of the following factors:

Catchment growth i.e. forecast changes in the identified demand segments, and

Real growth in retail expenditure, which indicates increased propensity of retail consumption above inflation.

Retail expenditure per capita today (2007), according to 11 retail spending categories and based on the latest release MarketInfo data for the MTA, is detailed in Table 3. This illustrates that the current annual spending level in the MTA is $11,423 per person. Household incomes in the trade area are similar to metropolitan Melbourne.



Table 3. Expenditure Profile 2006 – Resident Retail Expenditure Per Annum

Convenience, Grocery and Specialty (CGS)Grocery $ 4,150 Catering (Restaurant and Café') $ 1,537 Clothing and Accessories $ 1,215 Sports and Hobbies $ 368 Services $ 416 Newsagent and Chemist $ 779 Bottle-shop $ 589 Total CGS 9,054$ Bulky Goods Retailing (BGR)Furniture and Whitegoods $ 885 Electrical $ 663 Houseware and Softgoods $ 383 Hardware $ 438 Total BGR 2,369$

ALL CATEGORIESTotal Retail Expenditure $ 11,423 % Variation from Metro Average 1.3%% Variation from Regional Average 13.9%

Source: MDS Market Data Systems - Marketinfo (2005), MacroPlan Australia (2008).

2.3.1 Real growth in retail expenditure

In terms of real growth in retail expenditure, 1.1% pa growth has been forecast for all categories, except lifestyle and homewares for which a growth rate of 2.4% per annum has been applied. These figures are based on ABS Retail Trade estimates on regional performance levels, coupled with historical growth rates at a national level as illustrated in Figure 4 below.

Figure 4. Real Growth in Retail Sales

Food Retailing Clothing and

Apparel Homewares Bulky Goods (inc Hardware) TOTAL RETAIL

1984-2002 0.7% -0.4% 2.4% 4.6% 1.1%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Retail Trade Australia, 8501.2.

It is important to note that price inflation has been excluded from the analysis of available retail expenditure in order to present future market forecasts in constant 2001/02 dollar terms.

Total retail expenditure levels for the catchment in 2006 and future years are assessed by combining the population forecasts with detailed expenditure profiles. The estimated rate of real growth in retail expenditure is then forecasted and applied to the known proportions of turnover sources.

Convenience, Supermarket and Specialty (CSS): There is significant growth forecast in the level of available convenience retail expenditure within the Main Trade Area (i.e. the sum of the PTA and STA), growing from $67 million in 2006 to $130 million in 2021, and an increase of approximately $63 million.



Bulky Goods Retailing (BGR): Bulky goods retail expenditure within the Main Trade Area (i.e. the sum of the PTA and STA), is expected to grow from $18 million in 2006 to $41 million in 2021, an increase of approximately $24 million.

The forecast growth in the expenditure pool is illustrated in Tables 4 and 5.

Table 4. CONVENIENCE, SPECIALTY AND SUPERMARKET – Expenditure Pool ($000)


Primary Trade AreaGrocery 24,049 32,795 41,070 50,430Catering (Restaurant and Café') 8,906 12,145 15,209 18,675Clothing and Accessories 7,039 9,599 12,021 14,761Sports and Hobbies 2,130 2,905 3,638 4,467Services 2,412 3,289 4,118 5,057Newsagent and Chemist 4,517 6,160 7,714 9,472Bottle-shop 3,415 4,658 5,833 7,162Total PTA 52,468 71,550 89,603 110,025Secondary Trade Area - WestGrocery 6,636 7,329 8,130 9,022Catering (Restaurant and Café') 2,457 2,714 3,011 3,341Clothing and Accessories 1,942 2,145 2,380 2,641Sports and Hobbies 588 649 720 799Services 665 735 815 905Newsagent and Chemist 1,246 1,377 1,527 1,695Bottle-shop 942 1,041 1,155 1,281Total STA 14,477 15,989 17,737 19,683

MAIN TRADE AREAGrocery 30,684 40,124 49,199 59,452Catering (Restaurant and Café') 11,363 14,859 18,220 22,016Clothing and Accessories 8,981 11,744 14,400 17,401Sports and Hobbies 2,718 3,554 4,358 5,266Services 3,077 4,024 4,934 5,962Newsagent and Chemist 5,764 7,537 9,241 11,167Bottle-shop 4,358 5,698 6,987 8,443Total MTA 66,945 87,540 107,340 129,708




Table 5. BULKY GOODS RETAIL – Expenditure Pool ($000)


Primary Trade AreaFurniture and Whitegoods 5,128 7,455 9,952 13,026Electrical 3,843 5,586 7,457 9,761Houseware and Softgoods 2,218 3,225 4,305 5,635Hardware 2,538 3,689 4,925 6,447Total PTA 13,728 19,956 26,639 34,868Secondary Trade Area - WestFurniture and Whitegoods 1,415 1,666 1,970 2,330Electrical 1,060 1,248 1,476 1,746Houseware and Softgoods 612 721 852 1,008Hardware 700 824 975 1,153Total STA 3,788 4,459 5,273 6,238

MAIN TRADE AREAFurniture and Whitegoods 6,543 9,121 11,922 15,356Electrical 4,903 6,835 8,934 11,507Houseware and Softgoods 2,830 3,945 5,157 6,643Hardware 3,238 4,514 5,900 7,600Total MTA 17,516 24,415 31,912 41,106




3 Retail floorspace need

Based on increases in both population and expenditure in the Alfredton/ Alfredton West area the need for more retail floorspace to meet demand is evident. The amount of floorspace that can be sustained by the identified expenditure sources is directly determined by the estimated turnover per square metre of floorspace required to support retailers.

This measure is difficult to estimate in retail analysis for a given location. The reason for this is the limited information available in relation to retail performance. The most compressive survey on turnover by the ABS was undertaken in 1991/92 Retail Census that surveyed all retailers. Given the data is now 14 years out of date, it is very unreliable in determining current day performance. The ABS followed this retail census with a sample survey of a selection of tenants throughout Australia in 1998/99. This survey is more reliable in determining retail performance of current retail tenancies; however it is a national average and not necessarily representative of local circumstances. It is however the best available and is used as a benchmark for all retailers.

Based upon the 1998/99 Retail Industry Survey and inflated to 2005/06 dollars the retail turnover densities used for the purpose of this study are outlined in Table 6.

Table 6. Retail Turnover Densities (RTD)

2005/06Supermarket and Fresh Food $7,262Catering (Restaurant and Café') $3,925 Café and Restaurant $2,800 Takeaway Food $5,049Clothing & Acces. $3,967Furniture and Whitegoods $2,442Electrical $5,859Houseware $2,500Hardware $1,494Sports and Entertainment $3,023Services $2,900Personal Goods $5,781Bottleshop $10,096

Source: ABS Retail Industry Survey (1998/99), MacroPlan Australia (2008).

Applied to each of the respective retail categories, the resulting floorspace demand sustained by the MTA is summarised in Tables 7 and 8.

According to this analysis, the total supportable convenience, speciality and supermarket floorspace generated by the expenditure pool in the Main Trade Area is 24,749m2 by 2021. However, there will be leakage of expenditure to centres outside the trade area. Table 10 outlines the development potential at the centre, taking likely market shares of this subject site into consideration.



Table 7. Convenience, Speciality and Supermarket - Sustainable Floorspace Estimate


Primary Trade AreaGrocery 3,312 4,516 5,655 6,944Catering (Restaurant and Café') 2,269 3,094 3,875 4,758Clothing and Accessories 1,775 2,420 3,030 3,721Sports and Hobbies 705 961 1,203 1,478Services 832 1,134 1,420 1,744Newsagent and Chemist 781 1,066 1,334 1,639Bottle-shop 338 461 578 709Total PTA 10,011 13,652 17,097 20,993Secondary Trade Area - WestGrocery 914 1,009 1,119 1,242Catering (Restaurant and Café') 626 692 767 851Clothing and Accessories 490 541 600 666Sports and Hobbies 194 215 238 264Services 229 253 281 312Newsagent and Chemist 216 238 264 293Bottle-shop 93 103 114 127Total STA 2,762 3,051 3,384 3,756

MAIN TRADE AREAGrocery 4,225 5,525 6,775 8,187Catering (Restaurant and Café') 2,895 3,786 4,642 5,610Clothing and Accessories 2,264 2,961 3,630 4,387Sports and Hobbies 899 1,176 1,442 1,742Services 1,061 1,387 1,701 2,056Newsagent and Chemist 997 1,304 1,599 1,932Bottle-shop 432 564 692 836Total MTA 12,773 16,703 20,481 24,749

Source: MacroPlan Australia (2008).

This assessment of overall development potential for the proposed retail centre is based on an examination of likely market shares, that is, the proportion of sales attributable to either the PTA or STA. The estimated market share profile for the proposed development is provided in the table below.



Table 8. Market Shares (%)

Convenience, Grocery and Specialty (CGS)GroceryCatering (Restaurant and Café')Clothing and Accessories Sports and HobbiesServicesNewsagent and ChemistBottle-shopBulky Goods Retailing (BGR)Furniture and WhitegoodsElectricalHouseware and SoftgoodsHardware

Primary Trade AreaSecondary Trade Area

- West

30.0% 10.0%15.0% 10.0%

75.0% 35.0%20.0% 10.0%

25.0% 10.0%

10.0% 5.0%

20.0% 10.0%25.0% 5.0%

10.0% 5.0%

10.0% 5.0%10.0% 5.0%


Applied to the sustainable floorspace estimates, a schedule of development potential is derived (refer Table 10). Table 10 indicates that, based on the above market share allocation, there is potential to develop a total of around 9,560m2 of convenience, grocery and speciality floorspace at the Main Trade Area by 2021. This also assumes that the Centre would catch an additional 5% of total retail spend from beyond the trade area.



Table 9. Convenience, Speciality and Supermarket - Development Potential


Primary Trade AreaGrocery 2,484 3,387 4,242 5,208Catering (Restaurant and Café') 454 619 775 952Clothing and Accessories 532 726 909 1,116Sports and Hobbies 106 144 181 222Services 166 227 284 349Newsagent and Chemist 195 266 334 410Bottle-shop 85 115 144 177Total PTA 4,022 5,485 6,868 8,434Secondary Trade Area - WestGrocery 320 353 392 435Catering (Restaurant and Café') 63 69 77 85Clothing and Accessories 49 54 60 67Sports and Hobbies 19 21 24 26Services 23 25 28 31Newsagent and Chemist 11 12 13 15Bottle-shop 9 10 11 13Total STA 494 545 605 672

MAIN TRADE AREAGrocery 2,803 3,740 4,633 5,643Catering (Restaurant and Café') 516 688 852 1,037Clothing and Accessories 581 780 969 1,183Sports and Hobbies 125 166 204 248Services 189 252 312 380Newsagent and Chemist 206 278 347 424Bottle-shop 94 126 156 190Total MTA 4,516 6,030 7,473 9,105

PLUS - DRAW FROM BEYOND THE TRADE AREABeyond the Trade Area @ 5% 226 301 374 455

EQUALS - TOTAL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALGrocery 2,944 3,927 4,865 5,925Catering (Restaurant and Café') 542 722 894 1,089Clothing and Accessories 610 819 1,018 1,242Sports and Hobbies 131 174 215 260Services 199 265 328 399Newsagent and Chemist 216 292 364 446Bottle-shop 99 132 164 200TOTAL POTENTIAL 4,741 6,331 7,847 9,560




4 Key considerations

It is evident from analysis conducted in this report that there is an immediate need for greater provision of retail floorspace within the Alfredton area. The decisions made now will have significant impacts on the future of Alfredton’s development. The Sturt Street site has been specifically identified in the Ballarat West Local Structure Plan as the desirable site for a retail development to service the Alfredton area.

In addition, the Ballarat West Local Structure Plan – Alfredton Review by Essential Economics Pty Ltd highlights the locational advantages of the subject site, and the City of Ballarat Retail Development Strategy, 2003 (BRDS) highlights the need for a neighbourhood centre of around 5-7,000m2 to serve future urban growth at Alfredton.

The subject site is in an excellent position to service the immediate and emerging retail needs of the Alfredton community. Located on broadhectare land, the site already has established access to water, gas and electricity. This means that development can begin without delay, given rezoning occurs. The site location also has excellent access, being located on Sturt St which is a major artery from Ballarat’s centre to Alfredton and the planned Alfredton West area.

Analysis in previous sections of the report identifies the potential for significant amounts of retail floorspace within Alfredton. The development site is able to cater for development in stages due to amount of vacant land in the surrounds. This allows the site to develop in line with the community which it would service.

Fundamental planning principles indicate that mixed used developments provide the most effective outcomes for the environment, economy and society on the whole. The development of critical mass means a greater range of needs are serviced and a sense of community can be developed. There is also significant danger in incremental development. If decisions are made without taking into account long term objectives, the development of Alfredton could be considerably impeded.

There is substantial long-term benefit in developing a retail hub now in anticipation of future growth in the suburb of Alfredton. The development of a full line supermarket, complemented by specialty offerings will ensure that the needs of existing and future residents within Alfredton are catered for.



5 Conclusions

Based on the results of the previous assessment of development potential, MacroPlan has undertaken an updated opportunity assessment for neighbourhood retail centres in Alfredton including estimates of the sustainable amount of retail floor space.

MacroPlan’s updated estimates of retail floorspace and timing vary compared to previous estimations due to:

New population estimates

Higher income estimates

A revised catchment area due to updated population distributions

These factors will result in a differing expenditure pool in comparison to previous estimates.

5.1 Total expenditure pool across Ballarat West

According to the BWLSP, there is a wide expenditure pool available in the Ballarat West area. The expenditure pool generated by residents ensures a sustainable floorspace allocation large enough to accommodate the required floorspace at both the Alfredton and Delacombe sites, as well as other centres in the area.

Taking into account likely market shares that have been assumed for the trade area, the growth in the expenditure pool within the MTA will generate potential for nearly 10,000m2 (or 9,560m2) of Convenience and Speciality floorspace across Alfredton (i.e. both the subject site and the Cuthbert’s Road site) by 2021.

In addition to the 10,000m2 potential floorspace identified, there is the option to consider an additional 500m2 for professional services that could support the retail identified for the suburb. This results in an estimated requirement of around 10,500m2 across Alfredton.

5.2 Development potential & staging

MacroPlan note from the outset that all assumptions used in the data model in arriving at a development outcome are conservative.

Noting this, the results of the sustainable floorspace assessment, combined with potential levels of retention indicate that by 2021, residents from the main trade area will generate demand for further retail.

As population growth and changes in socio-economic characteristics drive changes in demand over time, the size and diversity of retail floorspace also changes. Taking this into account MacroPlan has devised the following retail configuration (see Figure 5 for more details):

10,500m2 of total retail floorspace, comprising one full line supermarket of 4,000m2, one limited line supermarket of 1,800m2, 1-2 mini majors, 25-30 specialities and around 500m2 of professional services.

Given the location of the site, there is currently enough demand for one full line supermarket of 3,500m2-4,000m2 in the area as well as 15-20 specialty stores.



This level of floorspace is justified both from an economic and turnover performance perspective (i.e. economic impacts on existing traders are within competitive ranges and turnover performances would be in-line with industry benchmarks). An appropriate timing for this centre at capacity would be 2016. A more detailed summary of an appropriate timing and staging program is provided in Figure 5.

The key to successfully staging the timing of a new development relies on balancing the provision of retail critical mass and demand for goods and services with population density and household development rates. Having regard to the above considerations, the recommended staging program is outlined in Figure 5 on page 25.

These staging recommendations are also in line with what is highlighted in the BWLSP. The Plan reveals the following:

Supplying around 10,000m2 of retail floorspace at Alfredton will allow for growth and retail floorspace elsewhere in the trade area, including the proposed centre at Delacombe.

At least 6,500m2 of retail floorspace should be located at the Dyson’s Drive Sturt Street site, with a further 2,300-3,700m2 at the Cuthbert’s Road site.

The reality is that the market will determine the distribution of retail floorspace across development sites in the Alfredton area with the subject site highlighted in this study likely to supply a full line supermarket that will meet the weekly shopping needs of residents. The Cuthbert’s Road site may in turn supply a smaller local centre that will serve a smaller catchment and compliment larger centres in the area.

5.3 Recommendation

Given the development requirement of over 10,000m2 of Convenience, Specialty and Supermarket retail floorspace in Alfredton, MacroPlan Australia would expect approximately 40,000m2 (4 ha) would need to be rezoned to Business Use 1 land to meet this need. This advice is based on benchmarking to other similar sized centres in regional Victoria and in Melbourne, and considers the car-parking requirements to service the supply of retail floorspace.

Typically, a 10,000m2 neighbourhood activity centre will require a site of around 2 to 2.5 hectares to support retail activities and car parking. However, if other community uses are to be considered for the site in the future, up to 4 hectares would be appropriate.



Figure 5. Proposed Staging Program, Alfredton

Convenience, Grocery and Specialty (CGS)

1 Supermarket (including Liquor) 2 Supermarkets (including Liquor) - 1 Full Line @ 3,500 - 4,000sqm - 1 Full Line @ 4,000sqm

- 1 Limited Line @ 1,800sqm (i.e. IGA or Foodworks)

1-2 Mini Majors - Approx 700 - 1,500sqm

15-20 Specialties 25 - 30 Specialties - Approx 1,800sqm - Approx 2,500 - 3,000sqm

Other

5-10 Professional Services - Approx 500 - 1,000sqm

CURRENT: 2006

approx. 5,800qm

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POTENTIAL: 2021

approx. 10,000sqm

approx. 500sqm -1,000sqm

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Documents

Alfredton West| Retail Assessment - City of Ballarat