Alan Brent & Tinus Pretorius - Department of Energy ENERGY... · Solar heating systems (non-tracking and simple parabolic trough) for process heat of less than 150ºC. Solar heating

Solar Energy Technology Roadmap (SETRM):Solar Energy Technology Roadmap (SETRM):

Workshop Workshop –– 18 June 201218 June 2012

Alan Brent & Tinus Pretorius

� Tel: +27 21 808 4087 / +27 12 420 4605� Fax: +27 21 883 8513 / +27 12 362 5307

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� Fax: +27 21 883 8513 / +27 12 362 5307� Cell: +27 82 468 5110 / +27 82 950 2726� E-mail: [email protected] / [email protected]

Aims of the SETRMAims of the SETRM

� Formed part of a broader project: Baseline - SETRM – Feasibility -Business Plan.

� Used the National System of Innovation (NSI) framew ork for analysis. Highlighted key strategic R&D focus areas . Focus on active systems.

� Identify the required interventions by various role players to enable such R&D.

� Not to provide insight in terms of where the solar energy sector of South Africa should be heading, but

� where the NSI should place its emphasis to support and expand the emerging industry..

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Intended outcomes of the SETRMIntended outcomes of the SETRM

� South African strengths in solar energy technologie s:• Linking the strengths to government objectives:

– Climate change, energy security, economic growth an d employment.

• Linking the strengths to industry objectives:– Expanding the manufacturing base and capitalising o n export opportunities.

� Direction of R&D capabilities in the country:• SWOT analysis of the NSI.• SWOT analysis of the NSI.• To improve the competitiveness of the country.• Analyse and prioritise technology systems/platforms .

– Over the short term – next 5 years– Over the medium term – next 10 years

• Measurable objectives for the different technology systems/platforms

� Develop the roadmap accordingly.

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Methodology followedMethodology followed

� Data gathering on constraints and opportunities for the technologies:

• Interviews• Material from workshops and other projects• ISES Solar World Congress 2009

� Collect and review publications:• Journal articles• Reports

� Analyse the data to assess the market, industry dev elopment and R&D potential for South Africa.

� Draft the SETRM (Cambridge TRM model):• Sent out for review and critique to a wider stakeho lder audience• A final workshop

� Finalise the SETRM.

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Classification of the active systems of the SETRMClassification of the active systems of the SETRM(power services)(power services)

System service

System market / application

System output

Generic technology platforms

Power

Singular householdsSmall:

< 5 kWConventional without tracking photovoltaic.

Mini off-grid for small communities

Medium:

< 500 kWConventional or thin film, with / without tracking, or concentrated photovoltaic.

Commercial buildings / Agriculture sector

Medium:

< 1 MWConventional or thin film, with / without tracking, or concentrated photovoltaic.

Power< 1 MW

Industry sectorLarge:

> 1 MW

Concentrated or thin film, with tracking photovolta ic.

Concentrated (thermal) power.

Municipalities / commercial clusters

Large:

> 1 MW

Concentrated or thin film, with tracking photovoltai c / parks.

Concentrated (thermal) power.

National gridLarge:

> 10 MW

Concentrated or thin film, with tracking photovoltai c / parks.

Concentrated (thermal) power / parks.

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Classification of the active systems of the SETRMClassification of the active systems of the SETRM(thermal services)(thermal services)

System service


System output


Singular households/ communities for water and space heating

Low:

< 80ºCNon-tracking collectors.

Singular households/ communities for cooking

Low:

< 100ºCNon-tracking or manual tracking collectors.

Commercial buildings / agriculture sector for cooling (adsorption chillers)

Low:

60 – 90ºCNon-tracking collectors.

Thermalchillers)Commercial buildings / agriculture sector for cooling (single and double action chillers)

Low:


Municipalities / commercial clusters / industry sector

Low:

< 70ºCNon-tracking collectors.

Municipalities / commercial clusters / industry sector for desalination by membrane distillation

Low:


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Classification of the active systems of the SETRMClassification of the active systems of the SETRM(thermal services)(thermal services)

System service


System output


Commercial buildings / agriculture sector / industry sector for cooling (adsorption chillers, single and double action)

Medium:

130 – 180ºCConcentrated thermal with tracking, specifically wi th a simple parabolic trough.

Municipalities / commercial clusters /

Thermal

commercial clusters / industry sector for desalination by multi-stage flash (MSF) distillation

Medium:

90 – 120ºCNon-tracking collectors, or concentrated thermal wi th tracking, specifically with simple parabolic trough .

Industry sector for process heat

Medium:

< 250ºCConcentrated thermal with tracking, specifically wi th parabolic trough and linear Fresnel.

Industry sector for process heat

High:

< 400ºCConcentrated thermal with tracking, specifically wi th advanced parabolic trough and linear Fresnel

Industry sector for thermochemistry and fuels

High:

> 750ºC

Concentrated thermal with tracking, specifically wi th a

central receiver.

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Structure of the SETRM documentStructure of the SETRM document

Technology push / advances

Market trends / drivers

Market potential / barriers

8888


Strategic analysis

SETRM





Power applications• Photovoltaic (PV)

systems• PV manufacturing

research• Concentrated Solar

Power (CSP) systems• CSP manufacturing

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Strategic analysis

SETRM

• CSP manufacturing research

• Solar chimney, other

Thermal applications• Non-tracking applications• Concentrated tracking

applications





International focus• Renewable Energy (RE)

in general• Power applications

10101010


Strategic analysis

SETRM

• Power applications• Thermal applications• Policy landscape

changes





South African focus• RE in general• Role of active solar

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Strategic analysis

SETRM

• Role of active solar systems

• Power applications• Thermal applications





South African R&D focus with the role of government, R&D institutions and industry:• SWOT of the NSI in

12121212


Strategic analysis

SETRM

• SWOT of the NSI in general

• SWOT of power applications

• SWOT of thermal applications





SETRM• R&D vision• R&D strategies in terms

of funding and priorities based on the market-readiness of technologies

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Strategic analysis

SETRM

readiness of technologies• R&D implementation in

terms of the short term (next five years) and short to medium term (next ten years)

SWOT analyses of the National System of Innovation (NSI)SWOT analyses of the National System of Innovation (NSI)

� Conducted for the different applications and techno logical systems in the South African NSI.

� Market-readiness analysis of the different technolo gical systems based on current international advances in the tech nological systems.

� The international market trends and drivers.� The South African market opportunities.� The South African market opportunities.

� Potential and barriers that may be addressed throug h R&D.

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Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses

� R&D requirements of the different technologies.

� Requirements of those technologies that have been d emonstrated, which need to be commercialised in South Africa.

� Requirements of those that are already commercialis ed and can therefore be acquired directly.

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Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses(photovoltaic power (PV))(photovoltaic power (PV))

Technological system

R&D(primarily DST)

Demonstrated (primarily DoE)

Commercialised(private sector)

Conventional

• R&D focuses on characterisation of semiconductors.

• Development of appropriate education and training

• Optimise optical system technologies for product and manufacturing.

• Expansion of existing system design, simulation and

√√√√

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and training programmes.

• Establish R&D facilities for improved and new generation storage technologies.

simulation and optimisation capabilities, including panel, structure and tracking systems.

Concentrated √√√√

√√√√ Denotes the life cycle phase that characterises the technological system internationally

Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses(photovoltaic power)(photovoltaic power)Technological

systemR&D

(primarily DST)Demonstrated (primarily DoE)


Thin film

• Expansion of facilities for R&D on low-cost and high-efficiency thin film products.

• Expansion of existing characterisation and √√√√

17171717

characterisation and testing capabilities.

• R&D to optimise manufacturing technologies.


Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses(concentrated solar power (CSP))(concentrated solar power (CSP))Technological

systemR&D



Parabolic

• Expansion of existing system design, simulation and optimisation capabilities, including structure and tracking systems, and dry cooling for the power block.

• Optimise receiver system technologies for √√√√

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Parabolic trough • Development of

appropriate education and training programmes.

• Establish R&D facilities for improved and new generation absorber and storage technologies.

system technologies for products and manufacturing.

√√√√

Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses(concentrated solar power)(concentrated solar power)Technological

systemR&D



• Optimise receiver system technologies for products and manufacturing.

• Expansion of existing system design, simulation and optimisation capabilities,

19191919

Central receivers

optimisation capabilities, including structure and heliostat systems, and dry cooling for the power block.

• Development of appropriate education and training programmes.

• Establish R&D facilities for improved and new generation absorber and storage technologies.

√√√√

Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses(concentrated solar power)(concentrated solar power)Technological

systemR&D



Linear Fresnel √√√√

20202020

Dish Sterling


Outcomes of the SWOT analysesOutcomes of the SWOT analyses(thermal)(thermal)Technological

systemR&D



Non-tracking collectors

• None envisaged.• System optimisation

research projects.√√√√

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Concentrated with tracking

• System optimisation research projects. √√√√

Further analyses of technological platforms that ar e in the Further analyses of technological platforms that ar e in the demonstrated and commercialised lifedemonstrated and commercialised life--cycle phasecycle phase� Government intensity

• Requirement for those technological platforms that would stimulate economic growth, coupled with industry development and employment creation: those that would improve energy security and access, and those that would address climate change.

� Industry intensity• Those technological platforms that could expand a l ocal supply chain • Those technological platforms that could expand a l ocal supply chain

and lead to a greater export potential of products, technologies and knowledge.

� R&D intensity• Available capacity and associate resources needed t o support the

further development of the technological platforms.

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Outcomes of the analysis frameworkOutcomes of the analysis frameworkG

over

nmen

t int

ensi

ty

A

B

C

D

E

F

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Gov

ernm

ent i

nten

sity

Industry intensity

GH


over

nmen

t int

ensi

ty

A

B

D

E

F

Conventional photovoltaic• Government intensity

• Market roll-out• Creates jobs• Addresses energy

security and climate change

• Industry intensity• Fully commercialised• Perceived over -

C

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Gov

ernm

ent i

nten

sity

Industry intensity

GH

• Perceived over -saturation

• Little further expansion envisaged

• R&D intensity• Niche capacity• International entrance

barrier


over

nmen

t int

ensi

ty

A

B

D

E

F

Concentrated photovoltaic• Government intensity

• No market roll-out• Potential to address

government objectives in the short term

• Industry intensity• Not commercialised• Potential to expand the

industry in the short

C

25252525

Gov

ernm

ent i

nten

sity

Industry intensity

GH

industry in the short term

• R&D intensity• Resource allocation can

develop existing capacity

• Potential to position in international research community


over

nmen

t int

ensi

ty

A

B

C

D

E

F

Thin film photovoltaic• Government intensity

• No market roll-out• Potential to address

government objectives in the longer term

• Industry intensity• Not commercialised• Potential to expand the

industry in the longer

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Gov

ernm

ent i

nten

sity

Industry intensity

GH

industry in the longer term





over

nmen

t int

ensi

ty

A

B

C

D

E

F

Parabolic trough (P & T)• Government intensity

• Market roll-out• Potential to address

government objectives in the short term

• Industry intensity• Commercialised• Potential to expand the

industry in the short

27272727

Gov

ernm

ent i

nten

sity

Industry intensity

GH

industry in the short term





over

nmen

t int

ensi

ty

A

B

C

D

E

F

Central receiver (P & T)• Government intensity

• Market penetration• Potential to address

government objectives in the longer term

• Industry intensity• Demonstrated• Potential to expand the

industry in the medium

28282828

Gov

ernm

ent i

nten

sity

Industry intensity

GH

industry in the medium term


develop new capacity• Potential to position in

international research community


over

nmen

t int

ensi

ty

A

B

C

D

E

F

Non-tracking collectors (T)• Government intensity

• Market penetration• Potential to address

government objectives in the medium term

• Industry intensity• Commercialised• Potential to expand the

industry in the medium

29292929

Gov

ernm

ent i

nten

sity

Industry intensity

GH

industry in the medium term



• Potential to contribute in international research community

Short term:Short term:Over the next five yearsOver the next five years� PV systems (concentrated and thin film) with stora ge for less than

500 kW power supply, typically for off-grid and com mercial building applications.

� PV systems (concentrated and thin film) without sto rage for more than 1 MW grid-connected power supply.

� CSP systems (parabolic trough and central receiver) without storage for less than 10 MW grid-connected power supply.CSP systems (parabolic trough and central receiver) with storage for � CSP systems (parabolic trough and central receiver) with storage for more than 50 MW grid-connected power supply.

30303030

Short term:Short term:Over the next five yearsOver the next five years� Solar heating systems (non-tracking and simple para bolic trough)

for process heat of less than 150ºC.� Solar heating systems (parabolic trough) for proces s heat of less

than 250ºC.� Solar heating systems (advanced parabolic trough) f or process heat

off less than 400ºC.� Solar heating systems (central receiver) for thermo chemistry heat of

more than 750ºC.more than 750ºC.

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Short to medium term:Short to medium term:over the next ten yearsover the next ten years� Conventional and concentrated PV systems for power applications:

• R&D focus on the characterisation of semiconductors• Development of appropriate education and training p rogrammes• Establishing R&D facilities for improved and new ge neration storage

technologies

� Thin film PV systems for power applications:• Expansion of facilities for R&D on low-cost and hig h-efficiency thin film

productsproducts• Expansion of existing characterisation and testing capabilities• R&D to optimise manufacturing technologies

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Short to medium term:Short to medium term:over the next ten yearsover the next ten years� CSP systems for power and thermal applications:

• Optimise receiver system technologies for products and manufacturing (central receivers); expansion of existing system d esign, simulation and optimisation capabilities, including heliostat stru cture and tracking systems, and dry and hybrid cooling in the power bl ock

• Development of appropriate education and training p rogrammes• Establishing R&D facilities for improved and new ge neration absorber

and storage technologiesand storage technologies

� Thermal applications• System optimisation research projects for specific applications

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Short to medium term:Short to medium term:over the next ten yearsover the next ten years� Linear Fresnel systems, being an international tech nology market

entrant opportunity for South Africa, should also b e prioritised for this period, as a dedicated R&D effort.

• Linear Fresnel systems that supply process heat of less than 400ºC and power of less than 10 MW (without storage) need att ention in the near term.

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Solar Energy Technology Roadmap (SETRM):Solar Energy Technology Roadmap (SETRM):Workshop Workshop –– 18 June 201218 June 2012

Thank YouThank You

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Documents

Alan Brent & Tinus Pretorius - Department of Energy ENERGY... · Solar heating systems (non-tracking and simple parabolic trough) for process heat of less than 150ºC. Solar heating