Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-28

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-28

“Political Guerrilla War.” A recording by Ayman al-Zawahiri released this September and believed to have been made around February reflects the shift in Al-Qaeda’s strategy. Jabhat al-Nusra’s second-in-command Abu Mariah al-Qahtani of the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda voiced his support for the strategy that Abdullah bin Mohammed calls “political guerrilla war.” Political guerrilla war advocates the merging of the Al-Qaeda movement within a coalition of Jihad organizations.

What remains an open question is why Hamza bin Osama bin Laden was placed center stage at this time. Al-Qaeda has spoken about attacks against vital Western symbols, such as Big Ben in London or the Eiffel Tower in Paris, or the Vatican in Rome. There are many other potential targets; and we should not be surprised if Al-Qaeda presents the son as the second coming of the father.

Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), al-Qaeda's official affiliate in Syria, has faced many challenges to its legitimacy in recent months as a result of pressure to disavow its ties with al-Qaeda from fellow rebel factions and sympathetic Gulf countries. The Russian air strikes in Syria could boost JN following a long period of tension between the powerful jihadist faction and other anti-Assad forces.

The U.S. must “stop pursuing policies bound to enrage and embitter Yemenis who might otherwise be neutral,” an expert on the country argues. Al-Qaeda working on uprising in India by 2018: Bangladeshi expert, India and the US, 24 Sep agreed that all terror networks, including al-Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad and D Company must be defeated.

Tunisia: Al Qaeda Announces Jihadist’s DeathBy CARLOTTA GALLOCT. 5, 2015 An Algerian news channel reported that Al Qaeda had announced the death of the Algerian jihadist Mokhtar Belmokhtar, one of the most wanted extremists in North Africa. A Qaeda spokesman, Hassan Abderraouf, made the announcement in a recorded audio message released over the weekend, the Ennahar TV channel reported. Qaeda groups had earlier denied that Mr. Belmokhtar — responsible for an attack on an Algerian gas plant in 2013 that killed 38 foreign hostages — had died in an American airstrike in Libya in June. Mr. Belmokhtar’s death has been reported several times over the years. In 2013, the government of Chad announced he had been killed in an antiterrorism operation in Mali.

A New Image for an Old Al-QaedaOctober 6, 2015 Felix Imonti

Over the course of three decades, Al-Qaeda has undergone a number of changes. Faced by an alliance of powerful governments and the Islamic State, a new change is required. What it will be, we do not know with certainty, but we will find out soon.In a 55-minute video released in September 2014, the leader of Al-Qaeda announced that the

1The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 8

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movement was expanding into India. Emir Ayman al-Zawahiri assured Moslems in Burma, Bangladesh, in the Indian states of Assam and Gujarat, and in Kashmir, “that your brothers” in the militant organization “did not forget you and that they are doing what they can to rescue you.”Zawahiri explained that creating the Qaeda al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent had taken more than two years to complete. It is Al-Qaeda’s first Asian branch.The declaration came two months after Baghdadi, in his black cloak of Caliph Ibrahim, proclaimed his hegemony over Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the one hundred and seventy-five million Moslems of India. During the fifty-five minute video, Ayman al-Zawahiri said nothing about the rival Islamic State. Instead, Ayman al-Zawahiri repeated his allegiance to Mullah Omar, the leader of the Afghan Taliban. At the time, he appears not to have known that Mullah Omar had died nearly a year and a half earlier.After Ayman al-Zawahiri released the September 2014 video and disappeared for the next eleven months, the rumor mill produced stories that he had died, or had been removed in a coup, or was planning some spectacular event. The failure of the emir to praise the Yemeni branch of Al-Qaeda for the successful attack in January upon the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo was unusual. Failing to eulogize the death by an American drone in June of Nasir al-Wuhayshi, the leader of the Yemeni branch and his chosen successor left many members worried because the movement was under attack by the Islamic State in Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and Syria.The return in August of the emir in a ten minute video did not explain the reason for his absence. In it, he pledges his allegiance to the new leader of the Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor and eulogizes the late Mullah Omar. The surprise that might explain the reason for the disappearance was the disclosure that Al-Qaeda was following the Taliban back to Helmand Province in Afghanistan from where it had fled fourteen years ago.One other surprise was the introduction of Hamza bin Osama bin Laden in a ten minute video that was recorded in May and released on August 19. The twenty-four year old son of Osama Bin Laden praised the martyrs to the cause, urged more attacks upon the United States, and pledged his allegiance to Mullah Omar. His introduction comes at the time when Al-Qaeda is undergoing a transformation.A recording by Ayman al-Zawahiri released this September and believed to have been made around February reflects the shift in Al-Qaeda’s strategy. “Despite the big mistakes [of IS], if I were in Iraq or Syria I would co-operate with them in killing the crusaders and secularists and Shi’ites even though I don’t recognize the legitimacy of their state, because the matter is bigger than that.” Abdullah bin Mohammed, who is an Al-Qaeda theorist, is proposing that the strategy of recent years has been a failure and that change is necessary.Jabhat al-Nusra’s second-in-command Abu Mariah al-Qahtani of the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda voiced his support for the strategy that Abdullah bin Mohammed calls “political guerrilla war.” He opposes confronting the far more powerful states that can overwhelm the movement or the creation of caliphates that are easy targets for superior military forces.Political guerrilla war advocates the merging of the Al-Qaeda movement within a coalition of Jihad organizations. Abdullah bin Mohammed’s methods appear to have been put into operation in Syria.Jabhat al-Nusra, which is strongest in Idlib province, had joined with a number of other Jihadist groups to form the Army of Conquest. The united force captured Abu al-Duhur airbase after a two-year long battle for the last remaining government military base in Idlib province.The formation of the Army of Conquest has received approval from the Turkish, Saudi Arabian, and Qatari sponsors who are providing financing and fresh supplies of weapons. There, however, are reservations by other Jihadist groups about including Al-Nusra in an alliance.Responding to the doubts, Ayman al-Zawahiri earlier this year outlined in a secret communication the strategy for the Syrian branch. A strategic shift that is causing a schism within the organization is


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focusing upon Syria and abandoning the traditional objective of targeting the far off enemy, meaning the U.S.Ayman al-Zawahiri instructed the leadership of Jabhat al-Nusra’s to adapt to the local cultural and political environment by coordinating more closely with other Islamic groups. The movement is to promote a Sharia legal system and to strengthen its base within Syria.Directing Jabhat al-Nusra to abandon plans to attack the far off enemy will have little effect upon the Syrian-based branch, because it has been the Yemen franchise of Al-Qaeda that was responsible for the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris and attempts to send bombs to the United States. There is no evidence that the shift in policy to localize operations has been extended to AQAP in Yemen. Going by the first public statement of Qassim al-Raymi released in early July, the new military leader of AQAP is calling for more attacks upon the United States.The real change for AQAP has come as a result of the Saudi Arabian invasion of Yemen in March. So far, the Saudis are ignoring AQAP and the Al-Qaeda branch is avoiding contact with the Saudis.This is a time of consolidation for AQAP.The movement has taken control of the southeastern province of Hadramawt, which is the ancestral territory of Al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden. Al-Qaeda militants are enforcing Islamic sharia law throughout the province.About the time that Saudi Arabia launched its invasion of Yemen, Iran released in a prisoner exchange with AQAP five of the organization’s key leaders. The loss of so many of the Yemen branch of Al-Qaeda’s key personnel to drone attacks makes the return of these five a needed infusion of vital management; and their return makes AQAP more dangerous.Saif Al-Adl is viewed to be the most dangerous of the five. The former colonel in the Egyptian army has a five million dollar bounty on his head. He is believed to have been involved in the 1998 bombings of US embassies in East Africa.Abu Mohamed al-Misri was involved in much of the Al-Qaeda operational planning before the attack upon the World Trade Center in 2001. Abul Qassam was a colleague of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was involved in the founding of the organization that became Islamic State. There are also Sari Shibab and Abdul Khayr al-Misri.So long as the Saudi Arabian military coalition is occupied with fighting the Houthis, Al-Qaeda in Yemen has a license to continue consolidating its position. Eventually, it is more likely that it will be the Saudis and their allies who will be forced to abandon the battlefield. That will leave the Houthis, Al-Qaeda, and the growing Islamic State to battle each other.What remains an open question is why Hamza bin Osama bin Laden was placed center stage at this time. The simple answer may be that he can provide the organization the psychological link to the man who many consider to be the founder of the Jihadist movements, the man called the Lion of Jihad; but is the son the Lion’s cub?Osama Bin Laden made his reputation by performing a number of spectacular terrorist feats. If Hamza bin Osama bin Laden is to be accepted as a leader capable of rivaling the caliph of the Islamic State, he too must make is mark by some grand blow against the enemy. Al-Qaeda has spoken about attacks against vital Western symbols, such as Big Ben in London or the Eiffel Tower in Paris, or the Vatican in Rome. There are many other potential targets; and we should not be surprised if Al-Qaeda presents the son as the second coming of the father.

Here's how the Russian airstrikes will benefit Al Qaeda's powerful Syrian affiliate Waleed Rikab Oct. 5, 2015,

Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), al-Qaeda's official affiliate in Syria, has faced many challenges to its legitimacy in recent months as a result of pressure to disavow its ties with al-Qaeda from fellow rebel factions and sympathetic Gulf countries. The Russian air strikes in Syria could boost JN following a long


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period of tension between the powerful jihadist faction and other anti-Assad forces.Disputes have recently erupted with Ahrar al-Sham, the main Islamist rebel faction operating in Northern Syria, when the group began to cooperate with a Turkish-US plan to create an ISIS-free zone along the Syrian-Turkish border. Jabhat al-Nusra announced in response that it would withdraw from areas near the border, in order to avoid being perceived as collaborating with the US — despite the fact that the border zone is meant to disrupt the operations of JN's arch-enemy, the Islamic State (also known as IS or ISIS).Tensions between Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra began to rise even earlier, against a backdrop of reports that Ahrar al-Sham was receiving aid from secular countries, and amid Ahrar al-Sham's various attempts to reach out to a western audience while distancing itself from al-Qaeda. The tension with Ahrar al-Sham may have been reflected in operations on the ground, through an apparent loosening of the military cooperation within the Jaish al-Fatah (Army of Conquest) coalition. Throughout September 2015, JN focused on the capture of al-Dhuhur military airbase outside the northern city of Idlib. In contrast, Jaysh al-Fateh focused its attacks on the Shiite villages of al-Fuah and Kafaraya, a gateway to the Alawite heartlands of the coast, and then agreed to a controversial ceasefire brokered through regional power players in late September 2015.One danger of the Russian air campaign in Syria is that it may extricate Jabhat al-Nusra from its delicate situation vis-a-vis the other rebel factions and facilitate a repair of the ruptured ties.


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The Institute for the Study of War

Since the Russian airstrikes began, calls for unity and the resolution of disputes among the Islamist Syrian rebel factions are mounting. These appeals are voiced both by field operatives and top religious figures. Most notably, a group of 52 top Saudi clerics has urged all the rebel factions in Syria to unite, stating:"The Western-Russian alliance with the Safavids (the Iranians) and Nusairis (the Syrian regime) is a war against the Sunnis. The Mujahideen in Syria today are defending the entire Ummah. Trust them and lend them moral, financial and military support with no exception. If they are defeated, God forbid, the rest of the Sunni states are next."These kinds of statements, which are clearly playing on sectarian sentiment, could result in an outpouring of funds and recruits from the Gulf region as attacks against Islamist rebels will trigger an attempt to prevent the fall of Syria into "Shiite hands."The Russian campaign's indiscriminate targeting of anti-regime rebels is compounded by the apparent Russian-Iranian alliance to save Assad. Russia's actions are producing a sense of urgency both among the factions fighting on the ground and in the wider Sunni world. These feelings were reinforced by statements from the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, which were perceived as a call for a "Christian crusade" in Syria. This heightened rhetoric and emerging danger to the anti-Assad cause could spur the rebel factions in overcoming their internal differences. Just a week into the Russian bombing campaign, there is already evidence of growing support for Jabhat al-Nusra. The jihadists have received pledges of allegiance from traditionally anti-Russian jihadist factions. In recent days the largely Chechen jihadist contingent in Syria, Jaish al-Muhajiroun wal Ansar, has pledged fealty to JN, in addition to the Tauhid wal Jihad Brigade, which is comprised mostly of Uzbek jihadists. There are even reports that a military unit has splintered from Ahrar al Sham and Joined JN. JN has gained experience in operating under the threat of airstrikes after the expansion of the US air campaign to Syria, although to a lesser extent than ISIS. It is likely to adapt to the Russian aerial activity, which may halt the group's advance toward the Assad regime's strongholds. But the Russian campaign is not likely to root JN out of Syria. Such an end-result will require a substantial ground operations and the entry of troops deep into rebel-held territories in northern, eastern and southern Syria.The last year saw JN expanding its territorial control in Syria, enabling it to secure a base of operations for al-Qaeda unrivaled since its Afghanistan safe-haven before the September 11th attacks. The group has been instructed by global Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri to focus on the consolidation of its position in Syria and refrain from attacking the West. If that decision changes, JN will be able to quickly utilize its acquired military knowledge and personnel, and the close proximity of its territories to Turkey and Europe, for future AQ-aligned attacks. Either way, one of the most extreme Sunni factions in Syria stands to gain from Russia's entry into the conflict.The repercussions of the Russian intervention for Syria are dire. The Russian involvement will not hasten the end of the Syrian civil war. Instead, it will also inject a renewed energy into the fight and color it in even darker sectarian shades.Waleed Rikab is a former Israel Defense Forces intelligence officer and heads the Strategic Research Department at Terrogence, a privately-owned counter-Terrorism company.

(CNN 6 Oct )The "perversion of Islam is the source of a lot of the problems in the Middle East," and more than force is needed to tackle extremism, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said Tuesday.Blair spoke to CNN after Tuesday's release of the report "Inside the Jihadi Mind."


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The Centre on Religion and Geopolitics -- an initiative of Blair's Tony Blair Faith Foundation -- analyzed propaganda from ISIS, al Qaeda and al-Nusra Front over two years for the report.It found the Salafi-jihadist groups shared nearly identical ideologies and said challenging their interpretation of Islam was critical to defeating them."There's no point in just tackling the violence unless you tackle the ideology of extremism behind the violence," Blair said.

"You've got these broad ideological strands that lie behind a lot of this extremism. If you take, for example, some of the organizations in the Middle East, some of those clerics that are putting out the most extreme stuff -- they'll have Twitter followings that go into millions of people.

"These people are saying things about Jewish people -- about even those in their own religion who are different that we would regard as completely unacceptable -- and it's those waters of extremism in which the violent extremists can swim," he said."The majority of people within Islam do not support either the violence or the ideology. What we are talking about, however, is a radical Islamist way of thinking that results in extremism by small numbers of people, but that thinking is shared by larger numbers of people, and you've got to attack both -- the violence and the extremism, the thinking behind it," Blair said.He said countries where extremism had taken hold needed to overhaul their education systems."We've got to use our negotiating power and might with these countries to say, 'You're going to have to reform the education systems that are educating millions of young people day in and day out to a view of the world that's narrow-minded, bigoted and hostile to those who are different.' "Blair, who was Prime Minister from 1997 until 2007, led Britain when it went to war in Iraq. He later was the Mideast envoy for an international quartet of the United States, Russia, United Nations and the European Union to try to achieve a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He stepped down from that position in June.

'Distorted religious principles'

The "Inside the Jihadi Mind" report authors said the propaganda of ISIS, al Qaeda and al-Nusra Front was built on shared "distorted religious principles" and produced "single-minded focus on violent jihad.""When they attack one another, it is not ideological differences that drives the conflict, but differing narratives: the ways in which they apply their ideology to reality," the report said."The Salafi-jihadi movement will not be defeated by focusing on these narratives: it will only be defeated if we understand and engage the ideology."Ed Husain, the foundation's senior adviser, said the groups "call for a caliphate of slavery, death and destruction.""They justify their evil by abusively citing Scripture and creating religious certainty in the minds of angry, eager and obedient recruits," he said.The center said the group's ideological foundations needed to be challenged by other interpretations of Islamic principles from mainstream Islamic theology."Jihadi groups thrive on simplicity: the more that they are forced to defend their interpretation of Islamic values, the harder it will be to maintain that simplicity," the report said.

Appealing to a younger generation


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With 62% of Muslims under age 30, alternative ideologies must be provided in a way that "today's generation understand," the center said.Celebrities, sports personalities and musicians need to be used in helping prevent the spread of extremism, it said.

"Counter-narratives must embrace the power of popular culture as well as the authority of religious voices to succeed. Meanwhile, many disenfranchised returning fighters have an important role to play in debunking the legitimacy of this ideology."

The center also recommended giving support to grass-roots Muslim responses and helping technology companies such as Twitter and YouTube promote "credible religious sharable material that rebuts the jihadi message.""Search engines, social media, and video sharing websites could use algorithms and positive flagging systems to ensure this content is as visible as possible, as well as providing warnings that certain search terms might lead to extremist material."Researchers gathered 114 online sources of propaganda for the report -- 48 from al Qaeda, 40 from ISIS and 26 from al-Nusra Front. They said only official sources for the groups were used.

Pentagon: U.S.-Backed Syrian Rebels Surrender American Arms to Al QaedaPentagon: ‘We can’t control every situation that these fighters encounter’BY: Adam Kredo September 28, 2015 U.S. defense officials have confirmed that military equipment issued by the United States to Syrian rebel fighters has been funneled to an al Qaeda offshoot, raising new questions about the ways in which the Obama administration is safeguarding U.S. arms in the war-torn Middle Eastern country.A commander in the New Syrian Forces (NSF), a group being trained and equipped by the United States, was found to have distributed at least 25 percent of the force’s U.S.-provided hardware to the Nusra Front, a terrorist organization affiliated with al Qaeda.The equipment, which included U.S.-issued ammunition and pick-up trucks, was “surrendered” to a Nusra Front affiliate in order to ensure that the rebel fighters could pass freely through territories controlled by the terrorist group, the Pentagon said. A Syrian opposition commander who was leading a group of NSF recruits “self-reported to coalition forces that under threat from al Nusra, they surrendered six trucks and ammunition to a suspected al Nusra Front intermediary to secure safe passage after being told that unless he surrendered some of his NSF equipment, his unit would be ambushed en route to their new location,” according to Col. Patrick Ryder, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command, who provided the Washington Free Beacon on Monday with a timeline of what took place.

“We will look at what we can do to prevent such a situation in the future, but given the complexity of the battlefield it is not possible to eliminate all risk,” Ryder added. “We are using all means at our disposal to look into what exactly happened and determine the appropriate response.”The arms exchange occurred after a group of around 70 NSF graduates crossed into Syria on the morning of Sept. 20, according to the Pentagon.The following day, the Syrian commander relocated the NSF fighters to a new location inside Syria.“The [Syrian] commander began to relocate his NSF fighters to a different town,” the Pentagon said. “According to information provided by the [Syrian] commander to the Coalition, he had been contacted by a suspected al Nusra Front intermediary and told that unless he surrendered some of his NSF equipment, his unit would be ambushed en route to the new location.”At that point, six vehicles were transferred to a Nusra Front intermediary. This commander later


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“provided a portion of the ammunition that had been issued to his NSF fighters to the suspected [Nusra Front] intermediary,” the Pentagon said. Ryder said that while U.S. and other collation forces do all they can to prevent this type of incident, they cannot “control every situation.”“The coalition’s train and equip program does everything possible to carefully screen participants in the program and to monitor their equipment,” he said. “These standards are one of the reasons that we have only trained a small number of fighters to date.”

However, “even with this screening and other precautions, we can’t control every situation that these fighters encounter once they return to Syria,” he added. “Syria is a very complicated battlefield with [the Islamic State], al Nusra, and the moderate and vetted opposition’s area of control frequently and sometimes quickly shifting. This is a battlefield situation in which the moderate and vetted opposition continues to face threats on multiple fronts, including from various extremist groups.”

The United States remains “committed to strengthening and growing” opposition forces who can fight the Islamic State and other terror groups, Ryder said. Rumors that U.S. equipment had fallen into the arms of the Nusra Front first emerged last week when the terrorist group tweeted what appeared to be a picture of U.S.-issued rifles that had previously been given to the NSF.At the time, the Pentagon called the reports false. However, upon further investigation, officials determined that the NSF has in fact traded U.S. military hardware to the Nusra Front. “In light of this new information, we wanted to ensure the public was informed as quickly as possible about the facts as we know them at this time,” Ryder said in a separate statement issued over the weekend. ”We are using all means at our disposal to look into what exactly happened and determine the appropriate response.”


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Documents

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-28