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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-118-Caliphate-vs-Regular Armies-13

Spreading rapidly and getting close to our economical vital corridors and to home ground The Battle reliability of standing and moderate forces opposing irregulars

Retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn said Yet to defeat an enemy, you first must admit they exist, and this we have not done”.

Here is a situation, where fighter jets of a Saudi-led coalition are pounding the capital of another country, Sana'a, without seeking any international mandate, and there is absolute silence from those who should object.

• Leaders in Washington, London, Paris and Berlin have not appealed to the United Nations nor have they asked for an end to the bombing of civilians in an effort to stop the advance of rebels

• For those who say this is a justified attack to support a legitimate ruler, stop, think and rewind to 2012-2013, when the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, faced the most difficult pressure from armed Free Syrian Army fighters and Jabhat Al-Nasrah rebels (IS took control later).

• The rank duality in dealing with the situation in Yemen is not just the subject of some hand-wringing; it is the single largest reason why the war against IS and even its successor organisations will be unwinnable for these countries

If the coalition, which represents nearly a third of the world, which has the resolve, the firepower, and the experience of fighting terror groups in every part of the world, is unable to counter such a group; IS, deep and searching questions must be asked about why that is.

• Without the ground forces, all victories over IS territory are, essentially, pyrrhic.• The West’s preoccupation with the removal of Mr. Assad and the funding and arming

of the groups that opposed him since 2011 led to complete surprise at the rapidity with which IS fighters have taken over Syrian and Iraqi towns.

• In October last year, U.S. President Barack Obama finally conceded that underestimating IS’s rise had been a major “intelligence failure.”

The other flaw with the West’s strategy is the pursuance of regime change, focussed on one leader as the single purpose of its wars in West Asia.

• Recent history should have taught the U.S., the U.K. and others that the removal of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qadhafi haven’t been the end of the conflict; they have merely marked the beginning of a more diabolical and deadly version of the conflict.

Another blunder has been the misreading of the “Arab Spring” by the West.• Interestingly, the countries in the West that rejoiced at the thought of democracy in the

countries of the so-called Spring missed the most significant point: all the countries that saw their leadership change — Egypt, Syria, Libya, Yemen — were republics, whereas none of the eight monarchies — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, the Emirates, Jordan and Morocco — were destabilised

The West has turned a blind eye, and even assisted these countries in the funding, training and arming of Sunni extremist groups to carry out attacks in Syria.

The West and its flawed anti-IS strategy 1; Suhasini Haidar The Hindu ; If the West genuinely wants to fight terror and promote a peaceful future in the troubled West Asia region, it will have to confront its selective silence and dual standard on the serious challenges

1 http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-west-and-its-flawed-antiis-strategy/article7054506.ece

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that threaten the region today. If there are any doubts about a global double standard when it comes to West Asia, then the reaction to the bombing of Yemen by Saudi Arabia and its partners will put them to rest.

Here is a situation, where fighter jets of a Saudi-led coalition are pounding the capital of another country, Sana'a, without seeking any international mandate, and there is absolute silence from those who should object. Leaders in Washington, London, Paris and Berlin have not appealed to the United Nations nor have they asked for an end to the bombing of civilians in an effort to stop the advance of rebels. Despite the question of sovereignty — of more than 100 air raids in which dozens of civilians have died in the capital, human rights violations and even the basic worry of these raids helping al-Qaeda and the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) in Yemen — there has been not one word of censure from them. In fact, Washington is backing the strikes, France and the United Kingdom are giving them “all possible” technical help, and Egypt, Turkey and even Pakistan plan to help with the “ground offensive” to back the Yemeni President, Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, against Houthi rebels.

For Western introspection; For those who say this is a justified attack to support a legitimate ruler, stop, think and rewind to 2012-2013, when the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, faced the most difficult pressure from armed Free Syrian Army fighters and Jabhat Al-Nasrah rebels (IS took control later).

What would have been the Western reaction had Iran sent jets into Aleppo, Homs and Hama to back its ally, Mr. Assad? Wouldn’t these countries have set up a counter-attack within 24 hours, or at least convened the UN Security Council for a Right to Protect (R2P) mandate to do so? The rank duality in dealing with the situation in Yemen is not just the subject of some hand-wringing; it is the single largest reason why the war against IS and even its successor organisations will be unwinnable for these countries. Despite 3,000 air strikes by a United States-led coalition of 62 countries that began operations last August to counter IS, IS continues to control more than an estimated 55,000 square kilometres of area in Iraq and Syria. That IS is an evil terror group displaying unprecedented brutality is undoubtable. That it is a threat to every country in the world should be obvious from the way the group has targeted every nationality: beheading American, British, Japanese and Egyptian citizens alike, burning alive a Jordanian national, and broadcasting its terror worldwide in the most bestial way. It poses the biggest threat to the next generation as well, recruiting a record number of child soldiers, and training children as young as five to kill. If the coalition, which represents nearly a third of the world, which has the resolve, the firepower, and the experience of fighting terror groups in every part of the world, is unable to counter such a group, deep and searching questions must be asked about why that is.

Down to logistics ; To begin with, there is a basic problem of logistics. Despite the most sophisticated drones and surveillance of the region, an air strike on an IS target is ineffective without an accompanying ground force in place. Even if the U.S. and its coalition are able to strengthen Iraqi armed forces to conduct ground operations, it is meaningless until they are also able to enlist Syrian armed forces to launch a pincer-like action on the group that straddles both countries. Without the ground forces, all victories over IS territory are, essentially, pyrrhic. This was evident in the Syrian town of Kobane along the Turkish border where the U.S. Alliance drove IS out in September 2014 after two weeks of sustained bombing and 600 strikes. As journalists were allowed into the city, their cameras bore out the tragic truth: all that was left of IS-controlled areas was a vast wasteland.

The reason that the U.S. coalition has been unable to engage the Syrian regime for help on the ground is of course the reason why it ignored the rise of IS in the first place. The West’s preoccupation with the removal of Mr. Assad and the funding and arming of the groups that opposed him since 2011 led to complete surprise at the rapidity with which IS fighters have taken over Syrian and Iraqi towns. In October last year, U.S. President Barack

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Obama finally conceded that underestimating IS’s rise had been a major “intelligence failure.” But it was more than that. It was the determined effort to ensure that “Assad must go” that led the Western and West Asian countries ranged against Mr. Assad to ignore his warnings about the nature of the fighters his army was battling. As a result, and in another example of the double standard, the 62-member coalition now routinely bombs areas that it wanted to stop Mr. Assad’s forces from bombing.

Misreading the Arab Spring; The other flaw with the West’s strategy is the pursuance of regime change, focussed on one leader as the single purpose of its wars in West Asia. Recent history should have taught the U.S., the U.K. and others that the removal of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qadhafi haven’t been the end of the conflict; they have merely marked the beginning of a more diabolical and deadly version of the conflict. Hanging Saddam and lynching Qadhafi hasn’t led to peace in Iraq and Libya, nor would the possible ouster of Mr. Assad do that. Instead, it has led to an erosion of what were once “secular” regimes, where minorities and women enjoyed a higher position than they do in other countries of the Arab world.

Another blunder has been the misreading of the “Arab Spring” by the West. While many of the crowds that poured into Arab capitals, from Tunis to Damascus and Sana'a, demanded democracy and positive change, many just wanted regime change. Democracy is better effected through the ballot box than it is through the crowding of main squares, which is a powerful image, but a misleading representation of the “people’s will”.

“We no longer refer to it as the Arab Spring,” admitted a senior NATO military official at the “Brussels Forum” conference last week, where trans-Atlantic discussions on IS were held. “It is now seen as the Arab uprising instead,” he concluded. Interestingly, the countries in the West that rejoiced at the thought of democracy in the countries of the so-called Spring missed the most significant point: all the countries that saw their leadership change — Egypt, Syria, Libya, Yemen — were republics, whereas none of the eight monarchies — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, the Emirates, Jordan and Morocco — were destabilised. This skew, particularly towards the Sunni monarchies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan, who are more focussed on fighting the “Shi’a crescent” of Iranian influence in the region, has led to another problem.

The West has turned a blind eye, and even assisted these countries in the funding, training and arming of Sunni extremist groups to carry out attacks in Syria. They have been doing this by trying to draw a fine line between the groups they support — including the Free Syrian Army and Jabhat Al-Nasrah — and with IS. Anyone who sees the distinctions between the groups has to only read the account of the American journalist, Theo Padnos (now Peter Theo Curtis), who was taken hostage in Syria in 2012 and finally released by al-Qaeda in August 2014 in a deal brokered by Qatar. Padnos was handed over from one group to another in Syria, and found few differences between them. When he asked why his well-armed captors trained in Jordan by U.S. marines were holding an American hostage despite promises they would only target Assad’s regime, they answered: “Yes, we lied.”

If it is naivety that allows the U.S., France, and the U.K. to continue to enlist their Arab allies in the war on terror and hope they will cut off finances and oil revenues to al-Qaeda and IS, despite evidence that they play both sides of the war, it is a very costly innocence that the world has paid for.

Joining IS ; Finally, there is a need for introspection inside Europe, the U.S., and even Australia, which have seen growing numbers of their citizens get through Turkey to join IS. While the brutality of the Assad regime and economic distress in the region have been blamed for the thousands of Arab youth taking up arms for IS, what explains the hundreds of citizens joining it from the U.K., France and the U.S.? According to the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, 3,400 of the 20,000 IS foreign fighters are from Western countries.

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Why are British and French girls becoming jihadi brides, schoolboys and young doctors learning to kill, and teenage Americans travelling all the way just to join IS ranks? Could it be that in the early years of a push for regime change and sanctions against Syria, Western governments themselves promoted the propaganda against Mr. Assad’s government, allowing many of their Muslim citizens to think they had not just religious but national sanction to join the war? Significantly, some of the West’s actions are now being rethought. While concluding another round of P5+1 talks with Iran in the Swiss town of Lausanne last week, the U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, suggested that the U.S. is now open to talks with Mr. Assad if need be. “If he is ready to have a serious negotiation about the implementation of Geneva I (2012 agreement), of course,” he said. “What we’re pushing for is to get him to come and do that,” he added, in an interview to CBS. But talks will only solve part of the problem in West Asia. If the West genuinely wants to fight terror and promote a peaceful future for the region, it will also have to confront its selective silence and dual standard on the serious challenges that threaten the region today. suhasini.h@thehindu.co.in

DAMASAK, Marcxh 24 Nigeria: Residents in the northern Nigerian town of Damasak said Tuesday that Boko Haram militants kidnapped more than 400 women and children as they left the town, which was freed by troops from Niger and Chad this month. "They took 506 young women and children. They killed about 50 of them before leaving," a trader called Souleymane Ali told Reuters in the town. "We don't know if they killed others after leaving, but they took the rest with them." Lieutenant Colonel Toumba Mohamed, the Nigerien commander of the Niger-Chad forces in Damasak, said residents had reported between 400 and 500 women and children kidnapped.

Lebanon army struggles to protect border from ISIL; Al Jazeera given rare access to a military frontline on Syrian border where troops are battling advancing ISIL fighters - 2. 22 Mar 2015, The Lebanese military is struggling to protect its border from advancing fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant - who are based in neighbouring Syria. Late Sep, A senior Iranian official has said that Tehran will supply the Lebanese army with military equipment to be used in fighting armed groups. But back in Feb 2015, Lebanon ISIS Threat: Islamic State 'Emirate' To Be Declared In Lebanon, Says Report; Parts of Lebanon may soon become part of the Islamic State group, as the brigade also known as ISIS prepares to declare an Islamic "emirate" in the country, security sources told Lebanon’s Daily Star. ISIS fighters are demanding support from the northern Syrian faction in order to extend the group’s geographical influence into Lebanon, according to the report published Monday. ISIS commanders have already begun the process of setting up a military committee to coordinate the group’s Lebanese affairs. The militant group has yet to choose a commander for the Lebanese mission, however, and rumors that radical Lebanese Sunni cleric Ahmad al-Assir would be appointed “emir” were not true, the security sources said. While prominent ISIS figures, including the Syrian commander known as Abu Musaab Halous, who played a key role in capturing Syria’s Raqqa province for the group in 2013, are involved in some of these efforts, the push to declare an emirate in Lebanon reportedly has yet to receive approval from ISIS’ backers. The news comes amid reports that ISIS has been amassing fighters in Syria’s strategic Qalamoun province, just across the border from Lebanon.

2 http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2015/03/lebanon-army-struggles-protect-border-isil-150322164440320.html

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March 11, Lebanese ISIS recruits receiving training in Syria; A group of young men from Akkar were recruited to an ISIS cell recently and traveled to Turkey with the intention of undergoing training in a militant camp in Syria, sources told The Daily Star Tuesday. The sources said Lebanon’s security services were informed that Syrian national Fayez Kh. A., better known as Hajj Ammar, arrived to Lebanon days ago and met a number of ISIS members in the northern district of Akkar. Fayez has recruited a number of young men who left for Turkey and plan to cross to Syria to fight alongside ISIS, the sources said. The cell is set to receive training on how to rig vehicles with explosives and how to wear an explosive belt in one of ISIS’ training camps in the Syrian governorate of Raqqa. Later, the group is expected to carry out operations in Syria and Iraq. The report said that in Turkey, the cell had joined a group of jihadis headed by Ziad Kh., N. Lebanese security agencies fear an escalation in terrorist acts this month in light of information indicating that the Abdullah Azzam Brigades is planning on resuming suicide operations.Meanwhile, the sources said that dispersed groups from the Syrian opposition group Jaysh al-Islam were living in Arsal. These fighters snuck into the northeastern border town from the Syrian region of Qalamoun and the suburbs of Damascus in an attempt to gain a foothold. Similar efforts by ISIS and the Nusra Front to do the same were rejected by Arsal residents, and the presence of Jaysh al-Islam in the town is still weak, sources said. Separately, security sources said that the Lebanese Army is expected to receive advanced weapons in the coming two months, including F5 jets from the U.S. The Army Command is now preparing to send a number of soldiers and officers to Europe to take training sessions on how to use the first batch of French weapons which Lebanon will receive in April as part of a $ 3 billion Saudi grant announced in late 2013. Coordination between the Lebanese and Jordanian armies has increased recently and should culminate in a visit by Army commander Gen. Jean Kahwagi to Amman soon, according to information obtained by The Daily Star. The kingdom has recently provided the military with a number of vehicles to improve its ability to combat terrorism, an indicator of the brotherly relations between the two states. The sources explained that the cooperation between the Lebanese and Jordanian armies was taking place in coordination with the U.S., to complement efforts made by a number of states which are members of the international anti-ISIS coalition. Among the vehicles that the Army will receive soon are 4x4 all-terrain Pamhard VBLs. The vehicle was designed to combine agility with adequate protection against small arms fire, artillery fragments, mines and NBC weapons. The VBL is amphibious and can run in waters at 5.4 km/h; it is also air transportable. Developed during the 1980s, it entered operational service in France in 1990. It has a fuel consumption of 16 liters per 100 km. The exact number of VBLs Lebanon will receive remains unclear. The VBL has been used in peacekeeping operations in Bosnia, Lebanon, Somalia and Kosovo. A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on March 11, 2015, on page 3.

Jordan. March 22, As the debate over America's involvement in the war against ISIS drags on, one country with a direct interest in the outcome of this struggle is stepping up -- and arming up -- to fight ISIS: Jordan. Last month, as you may have heard, the Kingdom of Jordan responded to ISIS's capture and execution of a Jordanian fighter pilot with a series of 56 airstrikes against the terrorist "caliphate." Jordan didn't stop there, though. In February, the Jordanian military also deployed "thousands" of ground troops to the Iraqi border to help contain the ISIS threat, according to ABC News. According to the Jordanians, their anti-ISIS troops only took up defensive positions, not moving into Iraq proper. But now, it appears the Jordanians may be preparing to take the fight to ISIS -- offensively. Earlier this month, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of a planned weapons sale of some six dozen M31 Unitary Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, or GMLRS, Rocket Pods to Jordan. Each pod contains six rockets. The sale, if approved, will supply Jordan with 432 powerful rockets for its military, each carrying 200 pounds of high explosive.

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March 11, Lebanese ISIS recruits receiving training in Syria; A group of young men from Akkar were recruited to an ISIS cell recently and traveled to Turkey with the intention of undergoing training in a militant camp in Syria, sources told The Daily Star Tuesday. The sources said Lebanon’s security services were informed that Syrian national Fayez Kh. A., better known as Hajj Ammar, arrived to Lebanon days ago and met a number of ISIS members in the northern district of Akkar. Fayez has recruited a number of young men who left for Turkey and plan to cross to Syria to fight alongside ISIS, the sources said. The cell is set to receive training on how to rig vehicles with explosives and how to wear an explosive belt in one of ISIS’ training camps in the Syrian governorate of Raqqa. Later, the group is expected to carry out operations in Syria and Iraq. The report said that in Turkey, the cell had joined a group of jihadis headed by Ziad Kh., N. Lebanese security agencies fear an escalation in terrorist acts this month in light of information indicating that the Abdullah Azzam Brigades is planning on resuming suicide operations.Meanwhile, the sources said that dispersed groups from the Syrian opposition group Jaysh al-Islam were living in Arsal. These fighters snuck into the northeastern border town from the Syrian region of Qalamoun and the suburbs of Damascus in an attempt to gain a foothold. Similar efforts by ISIS and the Nusra Front to do the same were rejected by Arsal residents, and the presence of Jaysh al-Islam in the town is still weak, sources said. Separately, security sources said that the Lebanese Army is expected to receive advanced weapons in the coming two months, including F5 jets from the U.S. The Army Command is now preparing to send a number of soldiers and officers to Europe to take training sessions on how to use the first batch of French weapons which Lebanon will receive in April as part of a $ 3 billion Saudi grant announced in late 2013. Coordination between the Lebanese and Jordanian armies has increased recently and should culminate in a visit by Army commander Gen. Jean Kahwagi to Amman soon, according to information obtained by The Daily Star. The kingdom has recently provided the military with a number of vehicles to improve its ability to combat terrorism, an indicator of the brotherly relations between the two states. The sources explained that the cooperation between the Lebanese and Jordanian armies was taking place in coordination with the U.S., to complement efforts made by a number of states which are members of the international anti-ISIS coalition. Among the vehicles that the Army will receive soon are 4x4 all-terrain Pamhard VBLs. The vehicle was designed to combine agility with adequate protection against small arms fire, artillery fragments, mines and NBC weapons. The VBL is amphibious and can run in waters at 5.4 km/h; it is also air transportable. Developed during the 1980s, it entered operational service in France in 1990. It has a fuel consumption of 16 liters per 100 km. The exact number of VBLs Lebanon will receive remains unclear. The VBL has been used in peacekeeping operations in Bosnia, Lebanon, Somalia and Kosovo. A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on March 11, 2015, on page 3.

Jordan. March 22, As the debate over America's involvement in the war against ISIS drags on, one country with a direct interest in the outcome of this struggle is stepping up -- and arming up -- to fight ISIS: Jordan. Last month, as you may have heard, the Kingdom of Jordan responded to ISIS's capture and execution of a Jordanian fighter pilot with a series of 56 airstrikes against the terrorist "caliphate." Jordan didn't stop there, though. In February, the Jordanian military also deployed "thousands" of ground troops to the Iraqi border to help contain the ISIS threat, according to ABC News. According to the Jordanians, their anti-ISIS troops only took up defensive positions, not moving into Iraq proper. But now, it appears the Jordanians may be preparing to take the fight to ISIS -- offensively. Earlier this month, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of a planned weapons sale of some six dozen M31 Unitary Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, or GMLRS, Rocket Pods to Jordan. Each pod contains six rockets. The sale, if approved, will supply Jordan with 432 powerful rockets for its military, each carrying 200 pounds of high explosive.

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