By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Yemen-2

Previous: -.Saudi Arabia has launched a military operation began at 2523:00 GMT March, According to Al Arabiya, the following countries have pledged fighter jets to the Saudi campaign: Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar, Sudan and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistan and Egypt are offering naval ships, it said

Talks on Iran's nuclear programme have entered a critical phase, with negotiators making last-ditch efforts to reach a preliminary deal before the March 31 deadline.

March 28, ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in a telephone conversation with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud discussed the recent developments on regional and international fronts. According to a report issued by the state-run Saudi Press Agency (SPA), during the telephone conversation on Saturday, Nawaz expressed full support for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the ‘Determination Storm’ operation, asserting that "all potentials of the Pakistani Army are offered to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia".

C: -- Saudi nuclear weapons 'on order' from Pakistan - 1 What did we think the Saudis were giving us all that money for? It wasn't charity Senior Pakistani official; The story of Saudi Arabia's project - including the acquisition of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads over long ranges - goes back decades. -- With another major aid recipient, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is also expected to step up its efforts to develop a nuclear bomb, potentially setting off an arms race in the region. “Taking matters into our own hands is the name of the game today,” said Jamal Khashoggi, a veteran Saudi journalist and former adviser to the government. --- --- C: As far back in 1979 Pakistan assigned two divisions in support of unrest in SA, Even in 2014, Pakistani media reports, it emerges that Riyadh is seeking Pakistani military arsenal for use in Syria. According to Roznama Ummat of February 7, Riyadh asked for two divisions of Pakistan army—about 30,000 soldiers and 16,000 support staff—to train Saudi troops.

Al Qods Brigades chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani, landed in the Yemeni capital Sanaa Friday, March 27 to organize a counter-offensive and open Iran’s third direct Middle East warfront after Syria (in support of Bashar Assad) and Iraq (with the US against ISIS).

Soleimani’s arrival in Sanaa signaled Tehran’s determination not to give up an inch of the ground gained by its proxies, while underscoring its demand for dominance as the leading Middle East power, promised by Washington in return for accepting a framework deal on its nuclear program.

According to our Washington sources, President Obama decided Wednesday to accede to the Iraqi premier Haider al-Abadi’s request for air support to de-stall the Tikrit operation against ISIS. Iran’s Al Qods Brigades chief, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who commanded the operation from the start has departed the scene.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) are now leading war action in four Mid East arenas: Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon,while building Shiite “popular” armies deferring to Tehran in three: Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

Saudi Arabia, its Gulf allies and Egypt underlined their breach with Washington over its Iran policy as two separate air operations went forward early Thursday, March 26, in Iraq and Yemen

1 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24823846

Cees Page 1 of 9 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Egyptian marine naval and marine forces Thursday morning, March 26, seized control of the strategic Bab El-Mandeb Straits to foil Tehran’s plans to grab this important energy shipping gateway between the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal,

DEBKAfile’s military sources add: The Saudis declared Yemeni air space a no-fly zone to achieve to goals:

(1) To deny the Yemeni forces advancing on the key port city of Aden access to air cover which would undoubtedly have been forthcoming from mutinous elements of the Yemeni air force. Without it, the rebel advance would be severely hobbled, and,

(2) to prevent Iranian warplanes from landing at Yemeni air bases with deliveries of military equipment and ammunition  their Houthi proxies.

Meanwhile, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), has benefited from the chaos to embed its fighters with local tribes opposed to Houthi expansion. The Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has also entered the fight, conducting five major suicide attacks on March 20 that killed upward of 140 people.Unless Iran pulls back, “you will see more direct Arab responses and you will see a higher level of geopolitical tension in the whole region,” argued Nabil Fahmy, a veteran Egyptian diplomat and former foreign minister.

Even if the proposed deal constrains Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Saudis and their allies note, the pact would do nothing to stop Iran from projecting its influence through such local proxies and conventional arms. Sanctions relief from the deal could even revive the Iranian economy with a flood of new oil revenues.

“The Americans seem nonchalant about this, like, ‘This is your sectarian problem, you deal with it,’ ” Mr. Khashoggi said. “So the Saudis went ahead with this Yemen operation.”

A premise of the "realist" view that American policy in the region should shift towards Iran was that the Saudi monarchy would collapse and Sunni power along with it. All of us misunderestimated the Saudis. Now the Saudis have emerged at the top of a Sunni coalition against Iran–limited for the moment to the Houthi insurgency in Yemen, to be sure, but nonetheless the most impressive piece of diplomacy in the Sunni world since Nasser, and perhaps in modern times. That attributes a lot of importance to a coalition assembled for a minor matter in a small country, but it may be the start of something important: the self-assertion of the Sunni world in response to the collapse of American regional power, the threat of Sunni jihadist insurgencies, and the Shi'ite bid for regional hegemony. The 10-nation coalition that Riyadh assembled to counter Iranian intervention in Yemen has a broad mandate to contain Iran throughout the region - 2.

Iranian general in Sanaa to organize Yemen rebel counter-offensive for Saudi-led attacksDEBKAfile Special Report March 28 Tehran took less than 48 hours for a decision to hit back at the surprise air and naval attack launched by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf and Egypt Thursday, March 26, to contain the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels’ sweep through Yemeni cities. DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Iran’s top war commander, Al Qods Brigades chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani, landed in the Yemeni capital Sanaa Friday, March 27 to organize a counter-offensive and open Iran’s third direct Middle East warfront after Syria (in support of Bashar Assad) and Iraq (with the US against ISIS).The Saudi-GCC-Egyptian intervention found the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels at the gates of the big port of Aden, which commands the Straits of Bab el-Mandeb, the vital gateway for oil shipping between the Indian Ocean and Gulf through the Suez Canal and Mediterranean.

2 http://www.meforum.org/5147/saudi-metternichs

Cees Page 2 of 9 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Certain Yemeni army units have joined the rebels. They are armed with advanced US weapons that were supplied for the war on al Qaeda and now serve the revolt against a Yemeni regime recognized by Washington. This rebel force had already seized most of Yemen’s cities and stretches of its Red Sea coast. Soleimani’s arrival in Sanaa signaled Tehran’s determination not to give up an inch of the ground gained by its proxies, while underscoring its demand for dominance as the leading Middle East power, promised by Washington in return for accepting a framework deal on its nuclear program. US officials persist in their public pretense that the diplomatic and the military arenas are unconnected. So the deal is presented as close to signing by the March 31 deadline, while the flames of Shiite-Sunni violence are allowed to spread into another corner of the Middle East. In the coming hours, Egyptian and Saudi naval and marine forces are planning landings in Aden, according to their military sources. They will fight to contain the Houthi march across Yemen and prevent the fall of its last major town, after two days of Saudi and Gulf air strikes against rebel positions around Yemen.DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the Saudi and Gulf air forces and Egyptian sea units managed in their first 48 hours to cut off Iran’s air and sea supplies to the Houthi rebels. Gen. Soleimeni will need to find a means of breaking the Saudi-Egyptian blockade and restoring supply routes. Above all, he must determine whether or not to co-opt Iranian air and sea forces to the Yemeni front and so leading them into head-to-head battle against Saudi Arabia and its ten Sunni allies.

Egyptian and Iranian warships maneuvering for control of the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb were reported to have clashed Thursday, the first day of the Sunni intervention in the Yemen conflict.  

From outside the region, Pakistan stands ready to step into the contest, promising Friday “a strong response” to any threat to “Saudi integrity.” This opened the door for the Pakistani army to be drawn into the wars of Arabia against Iran alongside the majority of Arab Sunni nations. Islamabad was responding to a Houthi warning to invade the southern Saudi provinces of Asir, Najran and Jizan, for which they counted on a welcome by the local Saudi populations, most of which belong to the minority Ismaili sect, that is closer to the Iranian Shiite and Houthi Zaydi than to the dominant Sunni faith of the Saudi royal regime.Friday night, President Barack Obama spoke with Saudi King Salman and reaffirmed US support for the military action taken in Yemen by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies, the White House said in a statement. Obama and King Salman agreed that their goal is to achieve lasting stability in Yemen through a negotiated political solution, the statement said. Obama also underscored his commitment to Saudi Arabia's security.

As U.S. and Iran Seek Nuclear Deal, Saudi Arabia Makes Its Own Moves 3. By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICKMARCH 30, 2015 CAIRO — As America talks to Iran, Saudi Arabia is lashing out against it. The kingdom, Iran’s chief regional rival, is leading airstrikes against an Iranian-backed faction in Yemen; backing a blitz in Idlib, Syria, by jihadists fighting the Iranian-backed Assad regime; and warning Washington not to allow the Iranian-backed militia to capture too much of Iraq during the fight to roll back the Islamic State, according to Arab diplomats familiar with the talks. Through Egypt, a major beneficiary of Saudi aid, the kingdom is backing plans for a combined Arab military force to combat Iranian influence around the region. With another major aid recipient, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is also expected to step up its efforts to develop a nuclear bomb, potentially setting off an arms race in the region. “Taking matters into our own hands is the name of the game today,” said Jamal Khashoggi, a veteran Saudi journalist and former adviser to the government. “A deal will open up the Saudi appetite and the Turkish appetite for more nuclear programs. But for the 3 The Nuclear Talks With Iran, Explained http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/03/02/world/middleeast/2015-03-02-iran.html

Cees Page 3 of 9 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

time being Saudi Arabia is moving ahead with its operations to pull the carpet out from underneath the Iranians in our region.” With the approach of a self-imposed Tuesday night deadline for the framework of a nuclear deal between Iran and the Western powers, the talks themselves are already changing the dynamics of regional politics. The proposed deal would trade relief from economic sanctions on Iran for insurance against the risk that Iran might rapidly develop a nuclear bomb. But many Arab analysts and diplomats say that security against the nuclear risk may come at the cost of worsening ongoing conflicts around the Middle East as Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Muslim allies push back against what they see as efforts by Shiite-led Iran to impose its influence — often on sectarian battle lines. Unless Iran pulls back, “you will see more direct Arab responses and you will see a higher level of geopolitical tension in the whole region,” argued Nabil Fahmy, a veteran Egyptian diplomat and former foreign minister. Even if the proposed deal constrains Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Saudis and their allies note, the pact would do nothing to stop Iran from projecting its influence through such local proxies and conventional arms. Sanctions relief from the deal could even revive the Iranian economy with a flood of new oil revenues.“The Americans seem nonchalant about this, like, ‘This is your sectarian problem, you deal with it,’ ” Mr. Khashoggi said. “So the Saudis went ahead with this Yemen operation.” “There is a disbelief in the Arab world that these negotiations are only about the nuclear file, and a frequent complaint here is that we are kept in the dark, we are not consulted,” said Gamal Abdel Gawad Soltan, a political scientist at the American University in Cairo. “The U.S. is much less trusted as an ally, as an insurance policy towards the security threats facing the governments in the region, and so those governments decide to act on their own.”

At least 45 people killed at a camp for internally displaced people in Hajjah province. 30 Mar 2015 At least 45 people have been killed in north Yemen after an airstrike hit a camp for internally displaced people, whilst a Saudi-led coalition continued to strike Houthi targets around the country for a fifth day. The humanitarian agency, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), said on Monday that the Al-Mazraq camp in the northwestern Hajjah province was bombed. "It was an air strike," Pablo Marco, the manager of the MSF programme in the Middle East said, adding that dozens more Yemenis were injured.

US air force bombs Tikrit to aid Iran-led operation against ISIS. Saudi, Egyptian bombers strike Iran-backed Houthi rebels in YemenDEBKAfile Special Report March 26, 2015, 7:16 AM (IDT) Egypt seizes Bab el Mandeb ahead of Iran. Saudis bomb Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis. US launches air strikes over Tikrit DEBKAfile Special Report March 26, 2015

In a surprise step, Egyptian marine naval and marine forces Thursday morning, March 26, seized control of the strategic Bab El-Mandeb Straits to foil Tehran’s plans to grab this important energy shipping gateway between the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal, DEBKAfile’s military sources report from the Gulf. Egypt disguised the raid as a counter-piracy operation. It rounded off the Saudi-led air strikes launched the same morning against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. These operations signaled the start of a major Sunni Arab revolt against Iran’s approaching takeover of Yemen, through its Houthi proxy, and advances in other strategic positions in the Middle East, with Washington’s support.Thursday morning too, the US launched its first air strikes against Islamic State positions in the Iraqi city of Tikrit, rallying to the aid of the Iranian-commanded Iraqi operation, which had failed to dislodge the jihadis in two weeks of fighting.

Cees Page 4 of 9 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

The separate operations in Yemen and Iraq attested to the widening breach between the Sunni Arab camp and the Obama administration and the former’s resolve to thwart US strategy for buying a nuclear deal with Tehran by empowering Iran to attain the rank of leading Middle East power. DEBKAfile reported earlier Thursday morning:Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) are now leading war action in four Mid East arenas: Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon,while building Shiite “popular” armies deferring to Tehran in three: Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

Saudi Arabia, its Gulf allies and Egypt underlined their breach with Washington over its Iran policy as two separate air operations went forward early Thursday, March 26, in Iraq and Yemen. The US launched its first air strikes against Islamic State positions in the Iraqi city of Tikrit to help the Iranian-commanded Iraqi operation which had failed to dislodge the jihadis in two weeks of fighting, while the warplanes of Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies joined by Egypt began bombing Yemeni cities to halt the Iran-backed Houthi rebellion.They were the first Middle East nations to rise up and take military action to thwart the US-Iranian strategy embarked on by President Barack Obama to buy a nuclear deal by empowering Iran to attain hegemonic status in the region. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) are now leading war action in four Mid East arenas: Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon,while building Shiite “popular” armies deferring to Tehran in three: Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

The formal announcements coming from Riyadh and Washington attempted to gloss over the open breach. The Saudis Wednesday indicated that their military buildup on the Yemeni was “purely defensive,” while Washington subsequently declared support for the Saudi-Gulf-Egyptian air strikes after they began. According to our Washington sources, President Obama decided Wednesday to accede to the Iraqi premier Haider al-Abadi’s request for air support to de-stall the Tikrit operation against ISIS. Iran’s Al Qods Brigades chief, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who commanded the operation from the start has departed the scene. Nothing has been said to indicate whether the Iranian forces, including Revolutionary Guards officers, remain in the area. It appears that the Obama administration prefers as little as possible to be mentioned about US-Iranian battlefield coordination in Iraq versus the Islamists, especially since it was not exactly a big success. At the same time, US air strikes launched to support ground forces are bound to be coordinated with their commanders, who in this case happen to be mostly Iranian. In the last two weeks of the Tikrit operation, liaison between the US and Iranian military in Iraq was routed through the office of the Iraqi Prime Minister in Baghdad. Early Thursday, Riyadh reported that the Saudi Royal Air Force had taken out Houthi air defenses, destroyed numerous Houthi fighter planes and were imposing a wide no-fly zone over Yemen.

Egypt is providing political and military support for Saudi-GCC operation against Houthi fighters in Yemen, the Egyptian state news agency said Thursday. Egypt's Foreign

Cees Page 5 of 9 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Ministry was quoted as saying this support could involve Egyptian air, naval and ground forces, if necessary.DEBKAfile’s military sources add: The Saudis declared Yemeni air space a no-fly zone to achieve to goals:

(1) To deny the Yemeni forces advancing on the key port city of Aden access to air cover which would undoubtedly have been forthcoming from mutinous elements of the Yemeni air force. Without it, the rebel advance would be severely hobbled, and,

(2) to prevent Iranian warplanes from landing at Yemeni air bases with deliveries of military equipment and ammunition  their Houthi proxies.Gulf sources disclose that Saudi Arabia has placed 100 warplanes and 150,000 troops with heavy weapons at the disposal of the operation against Iran’s Yemeni proxy, the Zaydi Houthis, as well as pressing into service Pakistani, Moroccan and Jordanian military units. This force is a sign that Riyadh intends of following up its air action with a ground invasion across the border into Yemen to crush the revolt in its backyard.Developing… The Yemen Mess Is Sparking a Full-Fledged Regional WarBy Alexis Knutsen Originally published in National Review OnlineMarch 26, 2015 Southern People's Resistance militants loyal to Yemen's President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi move a tank from the al Anad air base in the country's southern province of Lahij March 24, 2015. (Reuters)Originally published at National Review Online:  Just when Yemen looked like it couldn’t get any worse, this week the Houthis, a Zaydi Shia rebel group from northern Yemen that already controls much of the country’s capital, advanced toward the southern port city of Aden, reportedly forcing the U.S.-recognized Yemeni president Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi to flee and prompting Saudi Arabia to begin military operations. The Houthis’ advance comes a few days after the U.S. withdrew the hundred or so Special Forces stationed at al-Anad airbase, lying 24 miles north of Aden, in Yemen’s southern governorate of Lahij. It’s possible, though in no way confirmed, that our withdrawal of forces emboldened the Houthis to make their moves. Had our forces remained, the Houthis might not have advanced at all or, at least, not as quickly, to avoid encountering U.S. troops. So, not only has our Yemen model — er, “template” — utterly failed, but our rapid exit may actually have contributed to Yemen’s rapid unraveling and the expansion of this conflict into a regional war.Yemen has been marching on a path toward civil war for some time now. The country has fractured into two rival governments: The Iranian-backed Houthis, who control much of north-central Yemen since a late January coup, started sending forces southward earlier this week, while Hadi, who has established a rival government in Aden, the former capital of South Yemen, sent forces north to confront the Houthis. Hadi’s departure leaves only the Houthis in Yemen now. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), has benefited from the chaos to embed its fighters with local tribes opposed to Houthi expansion. The Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has also entered the fight, conducting five major suicide attacks on March 20 that killed upward of 140 people. The attacks, which targeted Zaydi Shia mosques, were likely an effort to inflame sectarian tensions — the same modus operandi ISIS has long used in Iraq.  Yemen’s fracturing is also giving some newly minted ISIS cells room to emerge. ISIS’s presence in Yemen is still murky: Some supporters claimed that ISIS fighters temporarily seized a city south of al-Anad airbase and executed 29 Yemeni soldiers the same day as the mosque attacks. Pro-ISIS Twitter accounts also recently started announcing the establishment of a wilayat (province) in Lahij. Maybe a coincidence? Doubtful.

Cees Page 6 of 9 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

It doesn’t take an expert to realize that the global fight against terrorism is going badly. With ISIS spreading in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and now Yemen, al-Qaeda affiliates still operating throughout the region, and a growing foreign-fighter threat, it’s a matter not of if, but when, something is going to hit closer to U.S. soil. In the meantime, the start of Saudi military operations in Yemen raises the specter of wider regional conflict and is yet another major distraction from efforts against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

Regards Cees: the Obama administration's "Yemen model" as a success in fighting terrorism- failed; but it's no coincidence that the White House has been praising its "Yemen model" right up until the moment of the country's near-total collapse. (And that chaos, by the way, is great news for the al-Qaeda affiliate that is based in southern Yemen.) As Operation Decisive Storm got underway, Iranian outlets, analysts, and elites all prepared to frame the conflict between the Shiite Houthis in Yemen and the 10-member coalition as part of the larger Saudi-Iranian cold war. Such zero-sum statements indicate that any set-back for the coalition will be a win for Iran. With Yemen’s president out of the country and its army fractured, al Qaeda is trying to define itself as the most capable force to protect the Sunni majority and gain support in what it calls a holy war against a Shiite rebel movement backed by Iran.

March 30, 2015 Memo No.1149 The Formation Of A Sunni Arab Military Coalition – An Historic Shift In Facing Iranian Expansionism By: Y. Carmon and Y. Yehoshua* Sunnis Take Their Destiny Into Their Own Hands The Saudi-led joint Sunni Arab coalition that is fighting the Houthi in Yemen constitutes an historic shift in the Sunni pushback against Iran's expansion in the region, as 10 countries – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, and Pakistan, with Turkish support – have formed a military-political coalition and launched Operation Decisive Storm that aims to restore the ousted Sunni regime in Yemen. This operation, that received immediate logistical and intelligence aid from the U.S., was termed by Arab media "an overall change in Arab politics" and a precedent in which "Arabs take their destiny into their own hands" and send a stern message to Iran and to the entire world.[1] Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni countries consider the Houthi a proxy of Iran, which is endeavoring to occupy a fourth Arab country, after Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. The Houthi aspirations to take over all of Yemen, not just the northern region that they currently control, while at the same time threatening to take over Bab El-Mandeb, places Saudi Arabia and other countries such as Egypt and Sudan in grave strategic danger.

Cees Page 7 of 9 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

With its back to the wall, Saudi Arabia wisely formed an alliance of Sunni countries to transcend internal differences and act together against their common enemy – Iran. The building of this alliance, begun during the reign of Saudi King 'Abdallah and continued by King Salman, required inter-Arab diplomatic efforts to reconcile between states hostile to each other, such as Qatar and Egypt, and to effect a rapprochement with pro-Iran Sunni countries, such as Sudan. By forming this alliance, the Arab countries have proven that they remain a force to be reckoned with in the region, even in the wake of the nearly five years of political division and deterioration of security that followed the Arab Spring. As they face down the Houthi, the Sunni countries are sending a message to both Iran and the West that they are tired of Iran's expansionism and will no longer allow it to threaten their interests. Operation Decisive Storm is also an assurance that the Syria scenario – in which Sunnis' failure to intervene produced an arena where its two main enemies, the Islamic State (ISIS) and the Islamic Republic of Iran, are fighting each other for regional hegemony – would not recur. It has repositioned the Sunni states as a Sunni establishment alternative in the struggle against Iran, which so far has been waged almost exclusively by extremist Islamist groups such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Now, as the Saudi daily Al-Riyadh writes in its editorial, "Tehran will think a thousand times before approaching another Arab country." It added that this was because "for decades, there has been no joint Arab military action against a common enemy."[2] In a similar vein, the Bahraini daily Akhbar Al-Khaleej stated: "This military surprise is a declaration by all the Arab countries of their determination, assertiveness, and absolute objection to the foreign plots to interfere in our affairs – particularly Iran's provocative interference."[3]

Implications For The U.S. And The West In response to the formation of the Saudi-led Sunni coalition, the U.S. immediately showed its support, with logistical and intelligence assistance. Even before Operation Decisive Storm kicked off, the U.S. had supported Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi's war against the Houthi, and had considered his presidency legitimate. However, at the same time, and to the displeasure of the Gulf states, it refrained from accusing Iran of supporting Houthi attacks, claiming that there was no proof.[4] Operation Decisive Storm was a wakeup call for the U.S. and the Obama administration, signaling that there was still an active and dominant Sunni force that could mobilize the entire Arab and Muslim world, including Turkey and Pakistan, against Iranian expansionism, and that the Western view of the Arab world as hopelessly disintegrated and divided – and of Iran as the only player capable of acting as sheriff to stabilize the region – is wrong. In assisting Decisive Storm, then, the U.S. has acted realistically, mobilizing to support the Sunnis much more than it ever has before. Prior to the U.S. announcement of support, the media in many Arab Sunni countries had been highly critical of U.S. foreign policy, calling it pro-Iranian.[5] Now, however, following its declaration of support, this criticism appears to have abated.

The Aims Of The Sunni Coalition: Defeat The Houthi, Achieve Limited Political Goals The Saudis' great strategic move has a realistic political goal: In addition to the effort to completely neutralize the Houthi military strength, by destroying their weapons caches, restricting flights, taking over ports, and so on, it also aims to achieve a political solution, to represent all Yemeni groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood and the Houthi.

Efforts To Direct "Decisive Storm" Momentum To Promotion Of Additional Sunni Arab Goals The March 28-29, 2015 session of the Arab League – an organization that has lost much of its clout since the onset of the Arab Spring – retroactively approved the Sunni move against the Houthi, and also offered the organization a chance to bolster its strength to promote other Sunni Arab military measures. The Al-Madina editorial expressed hope that

Cees Page 8 of 9 15/04/2023

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

"the alliance that was in fact first formed to deal with Yemen must inescapably continue also in other places such as Syria and Libya."[6] Egyptian President 'Abd Al-Fattah Al-Sisi, who has repeatedly called the security of the Gulf states a red line, used the momentum of Operation Decisive Storm – originally aimed at defending the Gulf states against Iran – to attempt to realign the Arab world along the lines of Arab nationalism and under Egyptian leadership. He concluded his speech at the Arab League session by repeating "Long live the Arab ummah" three times, as had Egyptian president and pan-Arab leader Gamal 'Abd Al-Nasser. Also expressed in the Gulf press was the hope that this resolute pinpoint Sunni move against Yemen's Houthi could be expanded into joint Arab activity in other fields as well. The Bahraini daily Akhbar Al-Khaleej noted, "This could be the start of a new Arab way in decisively and determinedly dealing with all problems and crises threatening the Arabs and harming their security." Likewise, Al-Riyadh stated that the Arab League "has been resurrected today as a breathing, speaking, acting body. It is as though it awaited someone to awaken it from its slumber – and along came 'Decisive Storm' to awaken Arabs to a different reality." It went on to promise: "The coming days will reveal a new reality, in which the Arabs will impose their agenda on the forces of the West and on the way they are handling the Iranian nuclear dossier, peace in the Middle East, and the Syrian crisis."[7] However, it is doubtful whether this Sunni joining of forces – which has to date been used only to defend against Iran – could be expanded to encompass Al-Sisi's other stated goals, among them amending the Arab League charter, establishing a joint Arab army, and reviving pan-Arab values. This is because aside from the Iranian issue, there has been significant and unresolved disagreement among the Arab countries on a number of issues in recent years, including the Palestinian problem and the fight against ISIS.

 *Y. Carmon is President and Founder of MEMRI; Y. Yehoshua is Director of Research at MEMRI.  Endnotes:

[1] Al-Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), Akhbar Al-Khaleej (Bahrain), March 29, 2015.[2] Al-Riyadh, March 29, 2015.[3] Akhbar Al-Khaleej, March 20, 2015.[4] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 6007, Arab Gulf Media Supports Sunni Military Campaign To Push Back Shi'ite Iranian Expansion: Syria Scenario Will Not Recur, March 26, 2015.[5] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 6003, Arab Press Harshly Criticized Obama Administration For Allying With Iran, Turning Its Back On Arab Friends, Leading Region To Disaster, March 23, 2015.[6] Al-Madina (Saudi Arabia) March 30, 2015. The Qatari daily Al-Sharq also called for the coalition to intervene in Syria; March 30, 2015. [7] Al-Riyadh, March 29, 2015.

Cees Page 9 of 9 15/04/2023