Aktuelni Problemi Upravljanja Razvojem

8/2/2019 Aktuelni Problemi Upravljanja Razvojem

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Rellenvant problems of managing development of hihgly educated humanresourse in Serbia

Isidora Djuri and Dragana ivkovi

Technical faculty Bor

Abstract: Serbia belongs to the leading emigration countries in Europe. Just in overseas countries liveabout 2.4 millions of emigrants and their descendants, and nearly one million live in West Europe countries,which means that every seventh Serb lives out of Serbia, with accentuated tendency to further leave ofdemographically most vital and working active part of the population. Special problem are emigrationtendencies of high-educated scientific human resources from Serbia, which started during nineties in lastcentury. The most important causes of this phenomenon, known as brain waste, as well as eventual activitiesin solving of the problem of management of high-educated human resources development in Serbia, are

presented in this paper. The results of the questionnaire done among the students of the Department of Industrial

Management, Technical Faculty at Bor is presented too, as a contribution to the consideration of the mentionedproblematic.

1. Introduction

Rough occurrences during the last decade of last century, mainly in east-European countries,lead to the appearance of many scientific works within new interdisciplinary field calledtransitology. As its name indicates, its main task is analysis of transition legality, political andeconomic, from one (socialist) system into other (democratic). Key position in the sphere of

post social transition is taken by works of Vaclav Klaus, based on transition experiences in east-

European countries.

Generalizing distinctive occurrences that were noticed, Klaus made the transition modelwhichcontains three separate secular phases :

1) The first phase is the liberalization phase. It is characterized by relative budget and monetarystability, followed by internal convertibility with very restrictive fiscal and monetary policy.Term liberalization assumes free pricing and free foreign trade exchange. It is not favorable tohave secular sub-phases within this phase, because due to danger from forming the oppositeinterest groups it is recommended to conduct this phase by application of shock therapy.

2) The second phase could be called the phase of negative reactions on the previous phase. It isextremely hard period, when due to inflation increase, big unemployment rate and drasticdecrease of life standard, intense protests occur. It is all followed by significant fall of grossnational product. Privatization process is accelerated to a maximum, but without urge from thestate to achieve maximum incomes from privatization. Klaus insists to, within this phase and atall cost, continue implementation of adopted strategy, with application of so called planedguiding. There must be no oscillation, partial measures, and going backwards. Recommendationis to lead reasonable social policy, with all due respect to social groups that are short term losers inthe transition process.

3) Third phase is one kind of early post-transition phase. One reaches the third phase only if a

model in the previous phase was successful. Specific for this phase is that the state abandons


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planed guiding and retreats into passive position, engaging explicitly on protection of economicfreedom. Basic power levers are already in the hands of the market itself.

It is more than obvious that transition in Serbia is being conducted by Vaclav Klaus model andthat we are at the moment in specific mid-phase. According to the increased level of expressed

dissatisfaction we are already in the second phase, and at the same time it seems that we did notfinish all tasks envisaged by the previous phase. Obviously it is the right moment for askingquestions with a goal to search for possible elegant by-solutions (which anyway fits intoanticipated chronology of Klauss modes, which announces reassessment during transition,though in negative connotation.

Namely, process of economic transition in this area begins in 1988 and 1989 during the time ofAnte Markovi. At that time there was no Vaclav Klaus model, and the reform gave satisfyingstarting results (as it is known it was stopped due to totally non-economic reasons).

2. Migration of highly professional and scientific human resource in conditions ofglobalization and transition

2.1. Globalization and problem of Brain Drain

Today labor market for most becomes unique global. It functions on demand and supplyprinciple. Students from poor countries go to developed countries on specialized and doctoralstudies and they stay there, while multinational companies from developed countries spreadtheir businesses in countries that these students come from. For their business, these companieslook for new work force in new market to spread and maintain growth and performance of highquality. On the first sight it is all balanced, some go the others are coming and international

cooperation evolves.

Unfortunately, behind these operations is a totally unbalanced relation between these twosystems. Because of that each developed country made its own special analysis to determine state

balance on realization of brain drain and brain gain. Brain Drain, in encyclopedia Britannica isdefined as exodus of educated people or professionals from one country, economic sector in othercountries because of better earnings or better life conditions. Britain Royal Society used this termto explain flux of scientist and technologists in USA and Canady during 1950-1960.

So Canada is a winner in the brain flux compared to the rest of the world, except USA. Its totalbalance is positive. There are countries that do not deal with this problem at all or are doing in

ineffective way. Lets look into different cases and possible defense strategies, because we are oneof these countries.

In research of migration of highly educated scientific human resources we differentiate followingtypical occurrences :

1) brain gain : gain that countries achieve where highly educated human resources are coming(with no expense for education and training they get necessary human resources, usually atthe best life and work age);

2) brain waste : damage when highly educated emigrants do not find employment in industry

where they can show their potentials, and in that case countries they left lose and countriesthey came to lose and emigrants themselves lose;


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3) brain re-gain : situation when potentials of highly educated emigrants are in some way usedin the country they emigrated from, including return and being active in their own country;

4) brain flight : situation of massive departure of highly educated human resource from thecountry.

2.2 Brain waste exodus of highly educated human resource

What is actually assumed under brain waste - exodus of highly educated human resource intellectual migration? Perception of this phenomenon volume, as also the structure of migrantsdepends on determining the term of this phenomenon. However, statistics of some migrationcountries often very differently define this term. Grei concludes that in world literature there isno widely accepted definition of migration of highly education human resource. Uneveninternational terminology complicates comparative analysis of this phenomenon and perceptionof its real dimensions and characteristics. Even small numbers of our authors that work on this

phenomenon do not assume under the basic term the same categories of workers.

This phenomenon in our literature is called brain exodus which lately indicates, migration ofhighly educated and expert labor force, namely, scientist, engineers and doctors, into developedcountries, with intention of migrants to permanently settle into the destination countries. In conducted research Grei however narrows the volume of the basic term and dimension ofthis phenomenon by questioning researchers in science institutions, science-research institutes,and also research-development units in Republic of Serbia with a goal to determine number,

professional structure and level of scientific knowledge of researchers who emigrated. Therefore,object of that research is the cream of highly educated emigrants, those who professedscientific-research work.Previous research in the world confirmed that exodus of highly educated human resource isuniversal phenomenon and that as a problem it influences more or less all countries, but former

socialist countries especially. From 1989 and fall of the Berlin wall, former socialist countriesface the problem of overflow of highly educated human resource abroad (massive intellectualmigration), which is especially characteristic for former SSSR.

As it is shown on graph 1 from 1990.-1993 only in USA 12.434 highly educated humanresources migrated from East Europe. In 1993, 3.423 highly educated professional left formerSSSR and migrated into USA, from Bulgaria 176, from former Check Republic 187, fromHungary 200, from Poland 5.909 and from Romania 487. Poland largely supplied USA withhighly educated human resource. That year, countries before Poland by highly educated

professionals who immigrated into USA were: China (11.056), India (7.973) and Philippines(7.974). From former Yugoslavia into USA 422 highly educated professionals immigrated intoUSA. Out of this and other data it can be seen that intensity of exodus is in direct connectionwith economic situation in the country of origin of highly educated professionals. Phenomenonhas tendency to grow meaning that when talking about voluntary migrations share of highlyeducated professional in total volume of migration is growing.


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05,000

10,000

15,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

Broj VSKN koji su seregularno uselili u SAD u

periodu 1990-1993

SSSR

Bugarska

eka republika

Maarska

Poljska

RumunijaJugoslavija

Kina

Indija

Filipini

Graph No.1. Number of highly educated professionals who regularly immigrated into USAduring1990-1993.

According to data of UN economic commission for Europe, in the period 1991.-1993, (graph

2.), net migration from former socialist countries was 2,285.000-2,735.000 individuals. Most(net migration) left states of former SSSR 1,000.000 to 1,100.000 individuals. Republics offormer Yugoslavia follow 800.000 to 1,000.000, Albania 200.000 to 300.000 individuals andRomania 150.000 to 200.000individuals. Bulgaria (40.000), former Czechoslovakia (25.000),Hungary (20.000) and Poland (50.000) relatively smaller number of individuals left thesecountries to migrate abroad. Largest number of immigrating population from countries ofcentral and east Europe and from territories of former SSSR found refuge in Germany -1,502.000 individuals (net). During this period 2,535.000 individuals emigrated from fiveformer socialist countries of east Europe, former SSSR and former Yugoslavia, and than from it1,033.000 individuals migrated.

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

Broj ljudi koji su emigrirali

u EU u periodu 1991-

1993

SSSR

Bugarska

eka republika

Maarska

Poljska

Jugoslavija

Albanija

Graph No. 2. Number of individuals who emigrated into EU during 1991-1993

During the period from1986.-1990., around 60.000 individuals left Africa with high school andfaculty education, and according to the World Bank data over 23.000 highly educated individualsleave Africa each year. Most usually they go to their former colonial countries. Beside going toGreat Britain, France, Holland and Portugal, also Middle East countries are destination (SaudiArabia, gulf countries), but inter-African migration is also significant usual destination is theSouth African Republic because of significantly higher standard and economic development.

Today in EU and USA live and work over 35 000 doctors who are born in some of Africancountries. They will not go back to Africa, because they would be wasted. Africa would hardly


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progress without them, even that multinational companies are present there for 400 years. Thereare many countries that are similar to those African, and are scattered over other continents. Forexample, case of India where talented individuals come back from USA. Their return is however30 times smaller from the number that is at the same time being pumped into USA. Thisconcept does not give a solution and could be renamed into perpetual mobile of frist kind. So

it could be concluded that brain drain is reality in global dimensions.

In Japan and Korea 'Brain Circulation' is applied. They send gifted individuals to USA, but laterthey return because of better possibilities for further development. If it was only Japan in questionany explanation would be unnecessary. These are the countries of similar gross national productand development but Korea is in that sense completely different, but it is registering the sametrend as Japan. We conclude that beside gross national product and development, cultural model

plays very important role. That means that Korea creates for those who return possibilities tocontinue research, development and shows entrepreneurship spirit at home.

3. Development problems of highly educated human recourse in Serbia

3.1 Yugoslavian-Serbian exodus of scientific and technical human resource

Period before socialist transition: Serbia is knownas traditionally emigrant country.Migration of Yugoslavian nations has long pre-history; it dates from times of Turkish conquestsin 14th century and lasts until today. Cause for migration, especially of Serbian nation, Cvijicdivides into historic, psychological and economic. In historic he primarily includes Turkishinvasion and rebellion after which retaliation followed. Main psychological reasons are ferocity offoreign reign and uncertainty of property and assets. And behind these reasons was difficult moral-economic situation created by foreign reign.

In the last 100-150 years, it is mostly economic migration, migration of our people in search of better life, migration from so called passive areas caused by economic reasons, bigunemployment, agrarian overpopulation and late development of production power and lateindustrialization. Migrations were mostly going in the direction of transatlantic countries (America,Australia, and New Zealand) sparsely inhabited areas that had big free areas for settlement.During the mid-war period intensive Yugoslavian migrations in transatlantic countries continuedand last until big crises during 1929-1933. Crises slowed down and decreases migrations,especially in the USA, and it comes to return movements, especially in the period 1932-1935.

That is the time when inner-European migration are getting stronger, and main migrationcountry was France.

After a certain pause during the first after war years, migrations during sixties again reach bigdimensions and move towards developed countries of West Europe. Most of emigrantcontingents are made of rural mass (near 50%) and semi-qualified and non-qualified work force,

but number of qualified and highly qualified human resources is not negligible. At the end ofsixties near one million of our workers emigrated. One hundred employed Yugoslavians comearound 15 employed abroad, of which half are young workers under 40 years of age.Migrations reach peak at the end of sixties to be rapidly slowed down and decreased at the timeof oil crises (1973.-1975.). Economic recession, caused by oil crises leads to unemployment

increase in all countries of European Union, and that phenomenon continues after the crises andlasts until our days.


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Period from 1980 until 1990. According to 1981 census 17.000 of our citizens with highereducation were working abroad, or 2,3% of total number of citizens older than 15 years of age.Data from American 1980 census show that that year there were 14.000 individuals of ourorigin with finished four year studies, and more than half of that number were individualsunder 44 years of age. According to Australian 1981 census data out of active number of

people of our origin 3.5% were with faculty, i.e. 2900 individuals.Grei estimates that only in the USA there are around 25.000 highly educated individuals born inour country, among which technical intelligence prevails, and in the west European countries heassumes that they count at least 12.000. .

Beginning of nineties: In the context of preparation of government measures a research was realized aboutOur scientist and experts abroad in the Institute for international policy and economy fromBelgrade (author of research Dr. Vladimir Grei) , with a goal to establish databaseabout scientist of Serbian origin who live and work abroad. According to first results,within that project, during the period from 1979-1992 total of 828 scientist and

researchers left Serbia, of which 181 with a title doctor of science and 156 with a titlemaster of science. Data was gained by survey (questionnaire) that was realize at allfaculties, science institutes and research development units (there are 304 science-research units in Serbia) where at the time of survey there were 2403 master ofscience employed and 4052 doctors of science, i.e. 11014 science workers andresearchers.

Brain drain from Serbia during late nineties:Nineties were in the whole world and in Europeespecially, in the sign of new migrations. They are new according to what caused them, bycharacteristics of migrants and especially are new according the character of migrationsthemselves. Todays migrations are more often a way of mobility of work force, and not

emigration- immigration of population. Those new migrations, especially in Europe, meanscrossing state borders, but not necessary to leave but to stay home, to improve life quality ofones family without permanently leaving the environment one lived in and where was unable tofulfill wanted life standard. We are having in mind frequent migrations in frontier areas of east and west European countries (Poland, Check Republic, Slovak R. Germany, Hungary, Austria,Slovenia, Croatia, Italy and similar) which create special migration area which is not bound, butintersected by state borders.

Migrations of citizens from Serbia during nineties are different compared to migration from1960.-1980. They become distinctly massive in a way of enforced emigrations of significant partof citizens of all age because of war activities in former Yugoslavia. But, migrations during

nineties are massive also in a sense of massive emigrations of work capable citizens of youngerage (due to total collapse of new Yugoslavian society in that period) Significant number ofcitizens left for European countries (Germany, Austria, Sweden, France), but also towards someEast countries (Hungary, Check R. and Slovak R.) and south of Europe (Greece, Bulgaria,Turkey). Finally emigrations to transatlantic countries are not negligible (USA, Canada, Australia,

Novi Zealand, South Africa).Table l. "Intended migrations of citizens of Serbia 1994 and 1999.

Are you thinking of leavingthe country (for longer)

to go abroad?


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Year Yes,seriously

Yes, alittle

No Tot al

% No.1994 11 19 70 100 11961999 21 25 54 100 1380

3.2. Survey results on Technical faculty in Bor

In favor of named research, within this work similar survey was conducted at Technical facultyin Bor during school 2006-2007; on 146 examinees, which includes students of all years at theDepartment for industrial management.

Do you think of leaving the country after finishing studies?

Yes, seriously 22;15%

Yes, a little 71;49%

No53; 36%

abc

Would you leave the country?

No answer47; 32%

Permanently42; 29%

Temporary 57;39%

a

b

c

What is the reason for temporary leave ?

No answer47; 32%

Something else(name what)

2; 1%Obtaining work

experiences27; 18%

High earnings54; 38%

Good conditions forscientific

research2; 1%

Expert/scientificspecialization

14; 10%a

b

c

d

e

f


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Based on research conducted on Technical faculty in Bor it could be concluded that there ispassive position of students to leave the country and go abroad. To go abroad often thinks 15%students, only sometimes 49%, and 36% does not think of it at all.Answer to the question what stimulates to go abroad, the most common answers are low lifestandard, uncertainty and impossibility to find employment.The most common destinations are USA, Canada but interest for EU is also noticeable.

3.3. Migrations of highly educated resource towards our country

What urges you to leave the country?

Impossibility to findemployment

in the country35; 24% Impossibility

To realizeideas

17; 12%

Politicalinstability

2; 1%

Bad conditions forscientists

4; 3%Low life standard28; 19%

Uncertainty13; 9%

No answer

47; 32%a

b

c

d

e

f

g

Countries of possible choice:

No answer44; 31%

USA31; 21%

Novi Zealand4; 3%

Australia12; 8%

Canada12; 8%

Other countries43; 29%

a

b

c

d

e

f

Channels for going abroad:

No answer45; 30%

Relatives36; 25%

Friends emigrants

20; 14%

Offers from foreign companies

16; 11%

Agency10; 7%

Without the agent19; 13%

a

b

c

d

e

f


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Migrations of highly educated resource towards our country could be of two kinds:a) return of highly educated resource towards our country from emigration;

b) arrival of highly educated resource towards our country from othercountries into our country

Phenomenon any of listed migrations would be a good sign because:a)

Return of highly educated resource from emigrations would meand that statemeasures are working and are aerating good climate and conditions for scientific research andresearch works, at least for resource that would significantly contribute to development ofcountry. This phenomenon does not necessary mean that significant economic and socialdevelopment is achieved in the country, but country is relaying on those resources from abroadfor further development (examples for such migrations are India, South Korea, Turkey andother that created conditions for return of their highly educated resource, mostly from USA, asdirect measure for their own development).

b)Arrival of highly educated resource from other countries into our country could

be achieved only if high level of social and economic development is achieved. That phenomenon exists even now smaller number of highly educated resource from eastEuropean countries is coming to our country because conditions are slightly better. It is noticed,however, that this arrival is only transitionally state to go further into developed countries ofWest Europe, USA, Canada, and so on.

The fact itself that our country is still attractive for highly educated resource from somecountries of east Europe, means that our country has development chances that must protectand develop. Conclusions of this works author remain that first sign of economic growth

would be return of highly educated resource from emigration, that proper orientation of thecountry in technological development, with relaying on human resource in emigration, would

be their massive return into the country and that entrance into the club of developed oneswould be marked by migration of first highly educated resource from west Europe or othercountries of the developed world.

Economic migrations from our country in earlier decades meant flux mainly of spare, lesseducated resource. Todays emigrations mean flux of necessary, educated resource in which thestate invested significant assets that would not be returned. Then, emigrants from earlier decadeson provisional work abroad sent significant amounts of foreign currency into the county and in thatway increased available foreign currency in the country. Todays emigrants take their foreigncurrency out of the country (including foreign currency gained by selling their apartments and otherassets). Then, emigrants from earlier decades, mostly unqualified gained abroad new skills, whichthen on their return to the country contributed to increase of human resource quality in our country.Also, earlier emigrants mostly were unemployed here so their departure significantly softenedunemployment issues. As it can be seen from data, almost half of todays emigrants from Serbia(47%) were employed while in the country. It is significant to note data from the survey, wherewe can see that these individuals, in 70% of cases, are employed abroad also, even though it is

probably below their qualifications.

4. Managing development of highly educated human resource in Serbia proposal of

measures to solve the existing problem


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Intellectual exodus is the problems that our society would face permanently. Its solution is not inpartial measures or short term measures. Solution is in profound long term policy. Reasons forthis approach are in numerous limitations that are standing on the way, from deep social andeconomic crises, big open and hidden unemployment up to totally chaotic situation in economythat was left without its own sources for more dynamic development. Limiting factor is

especially uncertain future of our country, its survival as political community.

Listed limitation prompt strict selective approach to the problem, socially rational selection ofpriorities and determining optimal social consequences where certain problems would be solved.From that point, global social actions would be pointed out, which in mid term deadlines(deadline 8 to 10 years) should get emphasized social priority. Following social activities areincluded in these global priorities:

First, strong confrontation with social crisis is necessary as is to find the right way to come outof it, ways that would lead to change of social climate which today is creating apathy and no

perspective. Prime significance in that is given to overcoming the economic stagnation of manyyears, creating new fresh sources to accelerate economic development and selection ofdevelopment priorities that would enable more thorough reconstruction of the existing

production structure, its placement on higher and prosperous technological basis.

Second, development strategy should not force only material production, but it should createassumptions for development of non-production branches, especially education, culture, healthand science. Increased development of all activities should improve total economic and socialdevelopment of the country, to influence improvement of social and life standard and created

basis for systematic and permanent science and technological improvement.

Third,dynamic development is necessary but it is not enough to solve the heavy burden of bigunemployment. Unemployment problems should become the starting point of all development

plans and programs. Systematic solutions and measures of development policy which would notconsider priority importance of this problem, would inevitable miss their goal, they would besocially and economically unacceptable.

Fourth, having in mind that scientific-research work, especially those in the area of basic research,one of prime factors to increase general social work productivity and growth of total social wealth,

substantial change of position of science and science workers becomes the first grade task, with thehighest priority, in general and from the point of keeping young science human resources in thecountry. We are talking about insufficient investments in science and equipping the science work,and they are far below the average of developed countries and even below average investments ofcountries of similar development level. Significance of science is verbally respected, but very littlein real social practice.

These global social activities should be enriched with whole complex of specific measuresimmediately directed towards slowing the exodus of highly educated resource. Those specificmeasures include:


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1. Strengthening the existing scholarship funds for young talents, with identification ofsuitable moral and material obligations they have towards the country and institutions thattake care about their expert specialization.

2. Even more importance should be given to creation of new work positions and realisticconditions where young talented human resources could apply their expert knowledge and

improve them even further. Open employment possibilities and more adequate work rating arenecessary and prompt assumptions for their staying in the country.3. It is necessary to elevate level and quality of university lectures, introducing teachingprograms and new education models and above all freeing the creation potential of Universityof all bureaucratic restraints and changing the relations of the government towardsUniversity. Entrance into new civilization era demands computer literacy, many newknowledge and much higher level of education and culture.

4. It is time to think about establishing Centre of excellence that already exists in mostdeveloped countries.

5. Society should create conditions for temporary leave of talented resources for one year or twoyears of specialization abroad, with a goal to have permanent knowledge innovations.

Positive effect on the migration process would come from establishing scientific-researchcenters in our country, which establishing would be organized in cooperation with otherinterested countries. We do not have one such international center, even though that in somescientific areas we have significant tradition and noticeable scientific results.

8. It would be good to initiate an action, with other undeveloped countries, at the United Nationsregarding compensation of one part of expenses due to exodus of highly educated resourcehuman resources. That question was already initiated in some UN studies, and by somescientists who offer concrete forms that should be used for compensation.

9. It is a wailing need to introduce a systematic record and permanent monitoring of themigration process of human resources, to have constant insight into its dimensions andtendencies, and to fill up one huge gap which disables to study this phenomenon in more detail.

10. Application of administrative mandatory measures is least desirable here and would onlyhave counter-productive effects. However, that does not exclude need to act on moral factorsand patriotic consciousness of young generation whose intellectual obolus should primarilyserve to the development of their own country.

It is necessary in the end to adduce limiting range of these suggested measures. Their social andselective performance would enable only to reduce this phenomenon of exodus of highlyeducated resource to some socially tolerable frame, to slow down the process and soften itsnegative effects. Even that limited goal that is set would mean a lot and asks for significantsocial efforts and much better organization of the society.

5. Conclusion

Conclusion is that drain brain in our country, in the future period, would depend primarily on workand development condition in our country. These conditions largely depend on transition that ourcountry is in, i.e. on development of economy, stability and total prosperity of the country, whichare very much doubtful. That means that future migration of highly educated human resource isdoubtful and also effects of suggested measures.It could be estimated that growing effects of attracting factors from immigration countries would be

neutralized with significantly increased offer of highly educated human resource from east


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European countries and that their total effect on emigration from our country in this decadewould not significantly change.Having in mind our current reality, fulfillment of these global social activities deeply depends on theway that social crisis would be untangled and post-social transition, conditioned by the questionswould political consensus be reached and what it would be. .

Literatura:

1. Kosti D.M., Ekonomist magazine, 2003 (www.ekonomist.co.yu/magazin/em165/tri/tri1.htm)2. Komatina S., Odliv strunjaka iz Jugoslavije, Stanovnitvo (1997)3. Grei V., Migracije visokostrunih kadrova i naunika iz SR- Jugoslavije, Beograd, 1996.4. Puonja M.S., Upravljanje ljudskim resursima, odliv mozgova ili neto tree, Politika revija,1 (2005) 267-286.5. obelji. N.: Jugoslovenski egzodus naunika i tehnikih kadrova, SANU (1992).6. Boli, S.: "Izmenjena sfera rada", u S. Boli (Urednik): Drutvene promene i svakodnevniivot: Srbija poetkom devedesetih, ISI FF, Beograd, 1995.

7. Boli, S., "Iseljavanje radne snage i odliv mozgova iz zemlje tokom 90tih", u S. Boli, A.Mili: Srbija krajem milenijuma: razaranje drutva, promene i svakodnevni ivot, ISI FF,Beograd, 2002.8. obelji N., Problemi migracije naunih i tehnikih kadrova, 1999, str.67- 82

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Aktuelni Problemi Upravljanja Razvojem