*Alarm BellThe gravity of situation can only be understood by
comparing the projected demand figures with the total current firm
supply figures of our countrySource: PEPCO
Current Installed (MW)Projected DemandGap
(MW)(MW)Year17897201024,4746,577201536,21718,320202054,35936,462202580,56662,66920301,13,69595,798
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*Pakistan Current Power Generation MixSource: Pakistan Energy
Outlook 2007 2008 to 2021 2022 Petroleum Institute of PakistanUsage
of Coal is negligible
Chart2
29.9
3.4
34.3
0.1
32.1
Electricity Generation 2007-08Total 95,860 GWh
Sheet1
CODEOBJECT CLASSIFICATIONTOTAL FUNDS ALLOCATED FOR THE YEAR I
&YEAR 2 PHASE- I AND PHASE -IIFUNDS ALREADY RELEASEDFUNDS
DEMANDED FOR THE FIRST YEAR/PHASE-IUNRELEASED AMOUNT
A0140.91026.7513.37513.375
A091-PURCHASE OF PHYSICAL ASSETS29.98025.6712.83512.835
A09203-PURCHASE OF.I.T EQUIPMENT.6.2806.283.143.14
A09501-PURCHASE OF TRANSPORT18.7014.397.1957.195
A09701-FURNITURE & FIXTURE5052.52.5
A13-REPAIR/MAINT: OF DURABLE GOODS5.5205.252.6252.625
A13001-TRANSPORT0.5200.250.1250.125
A13301-REPAIR/MAINT:/REFURBISHMENT OF OFFICE
BUILDING.5052.52.5
A03-OPERATING EXPENSES57.65038.4319.21519.215
A038-TRAVEL & TRANSPORTATION.3.7801.80.90.9
A03805-TRAVELING ALLOWANCE1.8900.90.450.45
A03807-09-P.O.L. / CNG CHARGES1.8900.90.450.45
A032-COMMUNICATION1.6900.810.4050.405
A03202-TELEPHONE AND TRUNK CALLS0.8800.420.210.21
A03204-ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION/WEB/INTERNET
CHARGES.0.4400.210.1050.105
A03205-COURIER CHARGES0.3700.180.090.09
Sheet2
Hydel29.9
Nuclear & Imported3.4
Gas34.3
Coal0.1
Oil32.1
Sheet2
Electricity Generation 2007-08Total 95,860 GWh
Sheet3
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*National Costs of Load SheddingCost to the Industrial SectorRs
157 billion
Cost to the other sectors of industrialloss of Value AddedRs 53
billion
Total cost of industrial load sheddingto the economyRs 219
billion
Cost as percentage of GDP2 %
Loss of employment in the economy400,000
Loss of exportsRs 75 billion(equivalent to US $ 1
billion)Source: IPP estimates listed in Beacon House National
University publication: State of the Economy Emerging from Crisis
2008
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*ECONOMIC IMPACT DUE TO ENERGY DEFICITFor firms with self
generationAdditional cost of Power self GenerationRs 32
billionValue Added LossRs 42 billionTotal CostRs 74 billion
For firms without self generationAdditional cost of Power self
GenerationRs 6 billionValue Added LossRs 77 billionTotal CostRs 83
billionOverall Cost to the Industrial Sector Rs 157 billionCost as
% of Industrial value added9%Percentage loss of Production7%Loss of
industrial Employment300,000 workers
Source: IPP estimates listed in Beacon House National University
publication: State of the Economy Emerging from Crisis 2008
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*OptionsContinue Importing Furnace Oil leading to increasing
import bill.
Improve and identify Alternate/Renewable Energy
Develop Hydel Projects
Minimize T&D Losses and take efficiency improvement
measures.
Exploit indigenous resources, such as Thar Coal which has a
generation potential of 100,000 MW consuming 536 million
tonnes/year (Enough resources for more than three centuries).Total
reserve is equivalent to 50 billion tone of oil (more than Iran and
Saudi Arabia combined oil reserves) or over 2000 TCF of Gas (42
times greater than total gas reserves discovered in Pakistan so
far)
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*Pakistans Coal ReservesSindh185,457 million tonnes
Punjab235 million tonnes
Balochistan217 million tonnes
NWFP90 million tonnes
Azad Kashmir9 million tonnes
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**Neyvelli lignite 7:1Heating value = 5200 Btu/lbTotal
generation = 2,740 MWLignite 6:1Heating Value: 6200 ~ 11,000
Btu/lbTotal generation = 0 MWCOMPARISON OF STRIPPING RATIO, HEATING
VALUE & GENERATION OF LIGNITE IN OTHER COUNTRIESIndiaRhineland
lignite 4.9:1 (m3:t)Heating value = 4,514 to 11054 Btu / lbTotal
generation = 10,289 MWGermanyHungary lignite 9:1 (m3:t)Heating
value = 3,035 Btu / lbTotal generation = 1,852 MWHungaryTHAR
COAL
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*Comparison Of Coal Quality
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**CREDIBILITY OF RESERVESStudies Conducted By:
USGSJohn T. BoydRWEShenhuaGSPSCA
All studies confirm presence of huge coal reserves
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**CHEMICAL ANALYSIS
BlocksWeighted Average chemical Analyses of Thar CoalAs Received
Values (%)Heating Values (Btu/lb)MoistureAshVol. MatterFixed
CarbonSulphurAs
RcvdDryI43.136.5330.1120.110.926,39810,461II48.895.2126.5519.371.055,78011,353III45.416.1428.5119.561.125,87510,880III-B47.729.3025.4916.791.154,808-IV43.246.5629.0421.131.205,97110,723V36.828.9238.2428.221.204,748VI38.327.6236.2230.131.5210,514VII48.278.0325.3019.561.165,441-VIII49.577.7824.3218.101.445,302-
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**UNDERGROUND WATER RESOURCESThree water aquifers at an average
depth of 50m, 120m and more than 200 meters:
First aquifer above the coal zone
Second aquifer within the coal zone at 120 meters depth: Varying
thickness upto 68.74 meters
Third aquifer below the coal zone at 200 meters depth: Varying
thickness upto 47 meters
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*Why Thar Coal?Current dependable power supply hovers around
14000 MW in summer whereas it drops down in winter.On the other
hand power demand in year 2030 would reach more than 100,000 MW
In view of the power generation and energy demand, Thars rich
coal reserves not only promise energy independence for Pakistan but
also offer lots of opportunities for prospective investors
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*Annual Savings in Foreign Exchange from Thar Block II
Cumulative savings of over USD 87 Billion from Block II alone due
to PKR devaluation and oil price increase. (fuel replacement
savings)
4000 MW600 MWNPV of USD 31 billion Discounted @ US CPI 3%
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*Benefit to Economy Reduction in Power Generation Cost Net
Present Value of Savings is Rs. 3.2 Trillion from Block II
aloneSource: CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) for oil
prices ; RFO and Coal Prices calculated from crude oil prices
through historical regression analysis
Year2016202520352045205520652071Price of Oil (USD/bbl)
*8195115138165198221Differential B/w RFO & Coal Tariff
(Usc/kWh)4578131415Cumulative Savings (Rs
B)141,0264,05510,40323,34149,73277,372
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*KEY REQUIREMENTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THAR COALTo make available
robust infrastructure.
Developing the coal sector policy and regulatory framework.
Setting up operational environmental and social management
framework for coal to power sector
Updating/developing key technical, financial, market and local
impact analysis and other information relevant to the investor
Preparation of Policy documents for conducting ICB for Thar
blocks.
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*Challenges for all BlocksChallengesInfrastructure must be
completedWater supply Short Term Roads Short Term Railways Mid
termTransmission lines Mid term
Power line for waste mining and pumping required
Human Resource development
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**THANK YOU
**************
