AIT Ram M. Shrestha Asian Institute of Technology Thailand 25 th March 2004 25 th March 2004 Energy Use and Clean Development Mechanism Opportunities in

AIT

Ram M. ShresthaRam M. ShresthaAsian Institute of TechnologyAsian Institute of Technology

ThailandThailand

2525thth March 2004 March 2004

Energy Use and Clean Development Mechanism Energy Use and Clean Development Mechanism Opportunities in AsiaOpportunities in Asia

IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004AIT

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

Economic Growth, Energy requirement and CO2 emissions

Sectoral Energy Related CO2 Emission in AsiaTypes of Energy Related CDM Projects Potential CDM projects by sector Marginal Abatement Costs of Some Cleaner

Power ProjectsFinal Remarks

AIT

Economic Growth, Energy requirement and CO2 emissionsEconomic Growth, Energy requirement and CO2 emissions


COCO2 2 Emissions, Total Primary Energy Supply and GDP in OECD and Emissions, Total Primary Energy Supply and GDP in OECD and

Developing Asia during1990 -1999Developing Asia during1990 -1999

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

1990

val

ue =

1

CO2

TPES

GDP

Source: IEA 2001

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

1990

val

ue =

1.0

CO2

GDP

TPES

OECDDeveloping Asia


CO2 Emissions: Share of Developing CO2 Emissions: Share of Developing Asia, OECD and other RegionsAsia, OECD and other Regions

OECD Developing Asia Other regions

58%

12%

30%

53%

22%

25%

Total Co2 emissiions in 1981 = 17815 milliom tonnes

Total Co2 emissiions in 1999 = 22818 milliom tonnes

Source: IEA 2001

1981 1999

Asia Asia

OECD OECD


Average Annual Growth Rates of GDP, Energy Supply and CO2 Average Annual Growth Rates of GDP, Energy Supply and CO2 Emission during 1990-2000Emission during 1990-2000

GDP (1995$)

TPES CO2

OECD 2.25 1.65 1.12

Japan 1.29 1.82 1.15

Developing Asia 6.68 4.30 3.23

China 9.84 3.60 2.80

India 5.45 4.69 4.57

Thailand 4.36 8.09 7.22

Malaysia 6.56 8.13 6.87

South Korea 6.45 8.02 6.65

Source IEA 2001

•TPES = Total Primary Energy Supply

•Growth of energy requirement and CO2 in Asia is way above that of OECD countries


COCO2 2 and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel dependence (South Asia)and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel dependence (South Asia)

Energy Intensity

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

'000

Qua

d TP

ER/1

995

USD

Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal

Srilanka Pakistan OECD

CO2 Intensity

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

kg C

O2/

1995

US

D

Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal

Srilanka Pakistan OECD

Fossil fuel dependence

35.00

45.00

55.00

65.00

75.00

85.00

95.00

105.00

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

% F

ossi

l fue

l in

TPE

R

Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Srilanka Pakistan OECD

• Energy and CO2 intensity in major countries much higher than OECD average

Data source: EIA website, March 2004


COCO2 2 and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel dependence (South and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel dependence (South

East Asia)East Asia)Energy Intensity

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

'000

Qu

ad T

PE

R/1

995

US

D

Indonesia Laos Malaysia Philippines

Thailand Vietnam OECD

CO2 Intensity

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

kg

CO

2/1

995 U

SD


Thailand Vietnam OECD


40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

% F

oss

il fu

el in

TP

ER


Vietnam Thailand OECD

Energy Intensity and CO2 intensity are not only higher but also increasing in most countries



COCO2 2 and Energy intensity and Fossil fuel dependence (Other Asia)and Energy intensity and Fossil fuel dependence (Other Asia)

Energy Intensity

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

'000 Q

uad

TP

ER

/1995 U

SD

South Korea China Mongolia OECD

CO2 Intensity

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

kg

CO

2/1

995 U

SD



70.00

75.00

80.00

85.00

90.00

95.00

100.00

105.00

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999


Energy and CO2 intensity of China and Mongolia are very high compared to OECD average, though show a declining trend



Projected COProjected CO2 2 emissions 2000-2025emissions 2000-2025

CO2 emission projections

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1990 2000 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

mill

ion

tonn

e CO

2

Developing countries Developed Countries EE/FSU

•Without significant efforts in mitigation, Developing country contribution to total world emissions will be higher than Developed countries by 2020.



Climate change and SustainabilityClimate change and Sustainability

• Climate Change could adversely affect many developing countries in the long run

• GHG Mitigation would enhance sustainable development


Cereal Production Impact of Climate ChangeCGCM1, 2080s

Source: http://www.gfse.at/publ/Powerpoint/18%20Februar/18February_P2_01_IIASA_Shah.ppt


Fossil fuel consumption increase has both Fossil fuel consumption increase has both long and short term implications long and short term implications

On Environment – e.g., increased air pollution

On economy – e.g., dependency on imports of energy

AIT

0

40

80

120

160

200

Delhi

Cairo

Calcult

ta

Tianjin

Chong

quing

Kanpu

r

Luckn

ow

Sheny

ang

Zheng

zhou

Jinan

Lanzh

ou

Bejing

Taiyua

n

Ahmed

abad

Jaka

rta

Cheng

du

PM

10, m

icro

gram

s p

er c

ub

ic m

eter

PM10 concentration (1999) in selected cities in the world

Out of 16 cities in the world with PM10 concentration > 100 micrograms/m3, 15

cities are in Asia and 14 of them are in China and India.

Source: World Development Indicators 2003


SOSO22 concentration (1990-98) in the selected cities in the world concentration (1990-98) in the selected cities in the world

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Guiyan

g

Chong

quing

Taiyua

n

Tehran Zib

o

Quingd

aoJin

an

Rio de

Jane

rio

Istan

bul

Ansha

n

Mos

cow

Lanzh

ou

Liupa

nshu

i

Yokoh

ama

Sheny

ang

Beijing

SO

2, m

icro

gram

s p

er c

ub

ic m

eter

WHO guideline = 50 micrograms per cubic meter

Out of 30 cities exceeding WHO guideline in the world, 23 cities are in Asia and 20 cities are only in China.

Source: World Development Indicators 2003


Energy and Urban Air pollution


Implications of growth on DevelopmentEnergy import dependency, %

Country/Region 1990 2000

China -3.4 5.9

India 16.1 27.1

Other South Asia 40.2 45.5

South East Asia -37.7 -4.0

Developing Asia 1.1 11.6

OECD 28.0 29.8

Data source: IEA (2002b)

Import dependency is increasing

Higher important dependency can make economies vulnerable to fluctuations in energy prices

This introduces long term growth uncertainties


Fuel Import Dependency of ThailandFuel Import Dependency of Thailandunder COunder CO22 reduction targets reduction targets

45

55

65

75

85

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

En

erg

y Im

po

rt D

ep

en

de

ncy

(%

)

Base case ER5

ER10 ER15


Primary Energy Mix under COPrimary Energy Mix under CO22 Emission Reduction Targets (1) Emission Reduction Targets (1)

Significant Biomass

use at all ER target

Coal use under

ER15

Noticeable in Oil

use under ER15.

Natural gas share

Oil

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mto

e

Base ER5ER10 ER15

Natural Gas

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mto

e

Base ER5ER10 ER15

Biomass

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mto

e

Base ER5

ER10 ER15

Coal

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mto

e

Base ER5ER10 ER15

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


What does Renewable Energy imply for What does Renewable Energy imply for Sustainable Development?Sustainable Development?

Biomass – example of sustainable energy resource Biomass resource development helps mitigate

GHG emissions and provides sustainable development benefits through rural employment generation

RETs like wind, solar, hydro also improve the local environment

CDM+Sustainable Development?


Total cumulative NO2 emission in ER15 8.6% less than in Base case during 2000-2030

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Thousand tons

Base case

ER5ER10

ER15

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tho

usan

d to

ns

Base case

ER5

ER10

ER15

Total NOx Emission Total SO2 Emission

Total cumulative SO2 emission in ER15 35.4% less than in Base case during 2000-2030

SO2 reduction higher than NO2

NONO22, SO, SO22 Emissions in Thailand under CO Emissions in Thailand under CO22 Reduction Targets Reduction Targets


The Factors for high COThe Factors for high CO22 growth in growth in

developing countriesdeveloping countries

High growth in GDPHigh dependence on fossil fuelInefficient use of energy resourcesWhat prospects for CDM?

AIT

Sectoral Energy Related COSectoral Energy Related CO2 2

Emission in Asian CountriesEmission in Asian Countries


Sectoral contribution to National COSectoral contribution to National CO2 2 eq. emissionseq. emissions

What are the sources of GHG emissions? And how big?What are the sources of GHG emissions? And how big?

AZERBAIJANBANGLA-

DESH BHUTANCAMBO-

DIAINDO-NESIA

PAK-ISTAN

Total Emissions and Removals (Gg) 59886 76419 632 59445 883198 155287

Energy (%) 87.91 25.93 15.00 2.99 20.10 53.50

Fugitive emissions (% of energy emissions) 17.68 0.74 0.00 0.00 10.77 7.01

Industrial Process (%) 2.41 1.95 21.16 0.08 0.00 7.26

Manure Management (%) 1.05 2.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.59

Forest and Grassland conversion (Gg) -5.86 2.32 0.00 76.06 34.33 0.00

Solid Waste (%) 2.24 1.21 0.00 0.01 0.00 1.24

Wastewater treatment 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13

GHG emissions from National Communications ( year 1994)


Contribution to country COContribution to country CO2 2 eq emissionseq emissions

MALAY-SIA

PHILI-PPINES SRI LANKA

SOUTH KOREA THAILAND VIETNAM

Total Emissions and Removals (Gg) 144193 154812 56696 285115 307621 29185

Energy (%) 58.54 31.86 43.97 85.77 42.13 85.96

Fugitive emissions (% of energy)

14.76 0.46 0.01 2.11 3.14 3.91

Industrial Process (%) 3.45 6.84 0.53 6.18 5.19 13.04

Manure Management (%) 1.09 0.00 1.74 0.03 0.95 0.01

Forest and Grassland conversion (Gg) 5.30 42.34 6.61 0.00 19.72 0.19

Solid Waste (%) 15.19 2.75 17.41 0.00 0.13 4.77

Wastewater treatment 3.20 1.22 0.02 2.17 0.11 0.13


Sectoral Share in COSectoral Share in CO22 emissions in Selected countries in emissions in Selected countries in 2000 2000

Source: World energy Council

• Electricity, Manufacturing & Industry and Transport are the main source of energy related emissions • In Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, China and Thailand electricity sector contributes 30-50% of energy related CO2 emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Bangla

desh

In

dia

Nepal

Pakist

an

Sri La

nka

China

OECDW

orld

Sec

tora

l sha

re o

f CO 2

, %Elec. & Heat Unalocated. autoproducers Other Energy industries

Manu. & Ind. Transport Other


Sectoral Share in COSectoral Share in CO22 emissions in Selected countries in emissions in Selected countries in 20002000

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Secto

ral sh

are

of

CO

2 (

%)

Elec. And Heat Unallocated Autoproducers Other Energy Industries

Manuf. & Ind Transport Other Sectors

Transport sector contributes around 30% in Srilanka, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam

Manufacturing accounts for over 30% in China, Bangladesh, Nepal, Vietnam


Types of Energy Related CDM projectsTypes of Energy Related CDM projects

– Energy efficiency improvement projects– Fuel switching to cleaner fossil fuels – Renewables projects – Cogeneration– Other projects


What are the prospects for energy What are the prospects for energy efficiency related CDM projects?efficiency related CDM projects?

Gaps in energy efficiency can provide the answer


Efficiency gaps in PEfficiency gaps in Power sector (1) ower sector (1)

Supply Side – Generation efficiency gap– T & D efficiency gap

Demand side – End use energy efficiency gap


Potential CDM projects in Power sector (2)Potential CDM projects in Power sector (2)Efficiency Gaps in Power SectorEfficiency Gaps in Power Sector

Large gap in generation efficiency of coal fired plants between most Asian countries and the best practice country (BPC) in the world. Coal fired power generation in Asia are approximately 9% less efficient as compared to that in OECD.

The efficiency gaps are obviously much larger when they are measured with reference to the efficiency of the best available technology (BAT).

There exists a large potential for the reduction of coal consumption and CO2 emission if the electricity generation is based on BAT or best practiced technology (BPT) instead of the existing inefficient technologies.

Generation Efficiency Gaps


Electricity Generation Efficiency Gaps – Coal Electricity Generation Efficiency Gaps – Coal

Electricity generation efficiency for Coal in 1999

0.005.00

10.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.00

%

Efficiency gain by 1% in China and India would reduce CO2 by 24 and 11.6 million tonne respectively in 2000

Best Practice efficiency

Eff. gap

Data source: IEA, 2002


Electricity Generation Efficiency Gaps - GasElectricity Generation Efficiency Gaps - Gas

Electricity generation efficiency gap for Gas in 1999

0.005.00

10.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.00

%

Data source: IEA, 2002

Best Practice efficiency

Eff. gap


Electricity Transmission and Distribution LossesElectricity Transmission and Distribution Losses

Large transmission and distribution efficiency gaps

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

OECDChina

Thailand

MalaysiaWorld

IndonesiaAsia

VietnamPhillipines

Sri Lanka

PakistanIndia

Cambodia

Myanmar

Percent (%)


Potential CDM projects in Power sector (5)Potential CDM projects in Power sector (5)Electricity Transmission and Distribution Losses (contd..)Electricity Transmission and Distribution Losses (contd..)

T&D losses as a percentage of total generation in some Asian countries range from 14 % in Vietnam to as high as 32 % in Myanmar.

T&D losses in a well designed system can normally be within 10%, reducing technical losses appears to be a promising option for reducing the generation requirements as well as reductions CO2 emissions.

1% of T&D loss reduction in Pakistan from 1995 to 2018 would result in cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 24 to 26 million tons.

Gross savings per kW of power demand avoided due to T&D loss reduction could be in the range of $ 1372 to 1770, which are significantly higher than the new T&D capacity cost per kW. (Shrestha and Azhar, 1998)


End-use Device Efficiency GapsEnd-use Device Efficiency Gaps

– Lamps: Lighting accounts for a large share in residential sectoral electricity consumption (e.g., 28% in India, 32.8% in Pakistan, 32% in Sri Lanka). Incandescent lamps, which use 3 to 4 times more electrical energy than compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) are most widely used in many Asian developing countries, e. g. India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.

– Air conditioners (ACs): Air conditioning accounts for a major share of electricity consumption in the commercial sector. Its share varies from 20% in Pakistan to 70% in Thailand. However, the widely used ACs in Thailand till few years ago used about 45% more electrical power than the efficient ones.

– Electric motors: Mostly, standard motors are used as industrial drives in India, Thailand, Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia and Sri Lanka. They are also used for agricultural water pumping in India. The efficiency of these motors is, however 3 to 7% less than that of energy efficient motors.


What environmental Benefits from improved energy efficiency in the power sector?

Country Planning Period

CO2 (106 tons)

Emission reduction

SO2 (103 tons)

Emission reduction

NOx (103 tons)

Emission reduction

NREB, India 2003-17 538 1,744 965

Pakistan 2000-14 92 206. 313

Sri Lanka 2000-17 22 48 32

Thailand 2003-17 62 651 134

Vietnam 2003-17 115 123 391

Source: Shrestha and Bhattacharya (1998) and Shrestha and Bhattacharya (2002)


Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) of Selected Cleaner Thermal CDM Projects Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) of Selected Cleaner Thermal CDM Projects in Selected Asian Countriesin Selected Asian Countries

Wide variations in MAC for CTTs: IGCC: 12 $/tonne (Thailand) to 83 $/tonne of CO2(Sri Lanka) PFBC: 100 $/tonne (Thailand) to 115 $/tonne CO2 (Sri Lanka) CC-LNG: 31 $/tonne CO2 (Sri Lanka)

Candidate CDM Project

Country Capacity (MW) Marginal abatement cost ($/tonne CO2)

CO2 emission reductions (106

tonnes) Sri Lanka 300 83 2.0 Thailand 500 12 10.0

IGCC

Yunnan-China 300 16 9.2 Sri Lanka 300 115 0.8 PFBC Thailand 500 100 4.0

CFBC Yunnan-China 300 16 9.2 CC-LNG Sri Lanka 500 31 15.3

Source: ARRPEEC (2003)


Incremental cost of CO2 Abatement ($/ton CO2) in Thailand during

2000 – 2030

• The average incremental cost of

CO2 abatement (IAC) would

increase from $28 per ton of CO2

in ER5 case to $111 per ton of

CO2 in ER15 case.

• At IAC of 28 $/tCO2, about 142

million tons of CO2 could be

mitigated (cumulative) during

2010-2030.

• At IAC of $46/ tCO2 and

$111/tCO2, 468 and 978 million

tons of CO2 (cumulative) could be

reduced respectively.

20

40

60

80

100

120

100 300 500 700 900 1,100

Total CO2 emission reduction (Million tons)

Incr

emen

tal c

ost (

$/to

ns)


Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) of Selected Renewable CDM Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) of Selected Renewable CDM Projects in Selected Asian CountriesProjects in Selected Asian Countries

In a study of selected RETs based CDM projects in Yunnan- China, NREB-India, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Viet nam by ARRPEEC (2003) wide variations in MAC are observed:

Solar PV: 12 $/tonne to 364 $/tonne of CO2 Wind:11 $/tonne to 36 $/tonne of CO2 Geothermal: 5 $/tonne to 73 $/tonne of CO2 BIGCC: 3 $/tonne to 94 $/tonne of CO2 Mini-Hydro: 2.2 $/tonne of CO2 (Thailand)

Limited prospect under presently relatively low CER price.


Energy efficiency gap in steel makingEnergy efficiency gap in steel making

Bars for each country / region refers to years 1980, 1990, and 2000 in that orderSource: www.worldenergy.org/ date 20th March 2004

Efficiency gap between Asian developing countries and Japan 0.4 toe/ton


Energy efficiency gap in cement productionEnergy efficiency gap in cement production

Source: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ies/iespubs/45292.pdfSource: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ies/iespubs/45292.pdf

•Emissions reduction of 29.7 Million tonne of CO2 in India and 260 million tonne of CO2 in China if both countries can achieve best practice efficiency


Potential for Cogeneration in ASEANPotential for Cogeneration in ASEAN

Source: www.cogen2.netDate: 16th March 2004


Sugar industries: Fuel availability and cogeneration potential

Sugar industries: Fuel availability and cogeneration potential

Country Sugar cane production (1,000 tonnes)

Bagasseproduction (1,000 tonnes)

Max. Power Generation Potential (GWh/year)

Indonesia 31,000 8,990 2,997

Philippines 21,000 6,090 2,030

Thailand 54,000 15,660 5,220

Vietnam 12,000 3,480 1,160

Total 118,000 34,220 11,407

Bagasse = Sugar cane * 0.29; 1 kWh = 3 kg of bagasse (including steam for process)

Source: www.cogen3.net (Date: 16th March 2004)


Palm oil industries: Palm oil industries: Fuel availability and cogeneration potentialFuel availability and cogeneration potential

Palm oil industries: Palm oil industries: Fuel availability and cogeneration potentialFuel availability and cogeneration potentialCountry FFB

production (1,000 tonnes)

Residue production(1,000 tonnes)

Max.Power Generation Potential (GWh/year)

Indonesia 25,000 10,500 4,200

Malaysia 42,000 17,640 7,056

Philippines 300 126 50

Thailand 2,300 966 386

Total 69,600 29,232 11,693

Residue = Fresh Fruit Bunch * 0.42; 1 kWh = 2.5 kg of residues (including steam for process)Source: www.cogen3.net Date: 16th March 2004


Rice industries:Fuel availability and cogeneration potential

Rice industries:Fuel availability and cogeneration potential

Country Paddy production (1,000 tonnes)

Rice husk production(1,000 tonnes)

Max. Power Generation Potential (GWh/year)

Indonesia 51,000 11,220 7,480

Malaysia 2,000 440 293

Philippines 11,000 2,420 1,613

Thailand 22,000 4,840 3,227

Vietnam 28,000 6,160 4,107

Total 114,000 25,080 16,720

Rice husk = Paddy * 0.22; 1 kWh = 1.5 kg of rice husk (including steam for process)

Source: www.cogen3.net Date: 16th March 2004


Final RemarksFinal Remarks

Energy efficiency gaps and high dependence on fossil fuel present challenges as well as opportunity: CDM as vehicle for Sustainable Development

Not all energy efficient and renewable technologies necessarily meet the economic criterion for CDM projects.

Economic viability also depends upon the market for Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). Presently, demand for CER is low hence the low price for CER (2 to 3 $/t CO2).

Several energy efficient technologies (EET) and RET projects may appear economically unattractive as CDM projects at present due to low market demand and price for CER.

However if countries like U.S. and Russia are to ratify the Kyoto protocol, market for CDM will grow significantly, resulting in higher CER prices and more CDM projects would than be economically attractive.



Incremental CO2 abatement cost for a CDM project can vary across countries. Regional level energy development may offer larger potential for CDM projects in South Asia. Careful cost benefit analysis of potential projects necessary Capacity building is essential for CDM project preparation and implementation in the South Asian countries.

Final Remarks (2)Final Remarks (2)


Specific energy consumption of various types of brick Kilns (tonnes of coal equivalent per

100, 000 bricks)

Clamp Kiln: 30-48

Bull’s Trench Kiln: 20-24

Fixed Chimney: 16-20

Vertical Shaft Brick Kiln: 10-13


Potential and installedPotential and installed capacitycapacity of selected RETs in selected of selected RETs in selected Asian CountriesAsian Countries

Potential Installed Capacity (MW) Country

Solar Wind

(MW)

Biomass

(MW)

Mini

Hydro

(MW)

Solar

(PV)

Wind Biomass Mini

Hydro

India 7 kWh/

m 2/day

20,000 17,000 10,000 57 1702 98 217

Sri Lanka 5.4

kWh/m2/day

200 10,000 88 0.360 3 - 12.5

Nepal 3-4

kWh/m2/day

200 200 0.130 - - 4.87

Source: www. teriin.org; RETs Asia, 2003; Wind Energy Monthly


Marginal Abatement Costs in the Power sector Marginal Abatement Costs in the Power sector $/tonne of CO$/tonne of CO22 at 1998 prices at 1998 prices

MAC Ranges from: 1.0 to 2.5 $/tonne of CO2 at 5% reduction target 2.8 to 12.5 $/tonne of CO2 at 10% reduction target 3.1 to 7.3 $/tonne of CO2 at 15% reduction target

Country/Regions

5% 10% 15% 20% 30%

Yunnan-China 1.0 4.3 7.3 7.9 10.6

NREB-India 1.8 3.4 5.4 - -

Sri Lanka - 12.5 - 15.5 18.3

Thailand 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.3

Vietnam 2.4 2.8 3.2 4.1 5.5

CO2 emission reduction targets

Source: ARRPEEC (2003)


Average unit consumation of energy for cement Average unit consumation of energy for cement productionproduction



Potential COPotential CO22 emission from Cement emission from Cement

–Project by Cement plant in India – increasing flyash content in cement from 10% to 13% - results in emission reduction from 0.813 tCO2/t cement (process emission + thermal energy emission + electricity energy emission) – for a annual production of 1.83 million ton production emission reduction is 22467 tCO2



Energy related CO2 emission by region

Developing countries CO2 emission to exceed that of industrialized countries by 2025. Presents challenges and opportunities for mitigation.


Implications of growth on Development

•Increased urban pollution – developing country cities are the most polluted cities today


Major sources of emissionMajor sources of emission

Energy consumption is the major source of GHG emissions

In some countries Fugitive emissions (Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan) fugitive emissions from gas production are significant

Industrial process emissions for almost all some countries are significant – cement sector primarily

Solid waste and industrial waste related emissions for Malaysia, Sri lanka, Kyrgyzstan are significant

Forest and Grassland conversions represent deforestation related emissions – countries like Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia have very high emissions from this category


Sustainable development Sustainable development

Issues in growth in energy requirement– Huge investment outlay to meet the growth

Energy production infrastructure ( USD 1000 billion in next 10 years for India to meet just the electricity generation infrastructure)

Energy distribution infrastructure– Import dependency can seriously affect economic

stability – Environmental implications

Urban air pollution due to increased fuel use in transportation Waste generation and disposal (e.g., coal ash) Indoor health issues in rural areas Acid rains – SO2 emissions in South Asia and South East Asia

are expected to grow 150% and 200% over 2002 by 2030 under certain growth scenarios


Sustainable developmentSustainable development

Waste management– MSW in South Asia and South East Asia 150% and 100% (200

million ton and 100 million ton respectively) by 2030– Air and water pollution from disposal of solid waste in urban areas– Water pollution from industrial waste– Opportunity cost of Land for disposal of waste is high – a serious

problem– Agriculture residue and animal waste in rural area - air pollution

as well as loss of resource Forests

– Ecological impacts of forest degradation and deforestation– Loss of livelihoods for population dependent on forest in

developing countries– Climatic impacts on forest will be enhanced


Types of CDM projects & SDTypes of CDM projects & SD

Energy sector – key to sustainable economic development– Reducing costs of energy infrastructure

Efficiency in supply (better technologies; cogeneration) Efficiency in use (steel, cement, waste heat recovery,

residential, etc. )

– Environmental benefits Fuel options (coal to oil/gas; oil to gas; fossil fuel to renewable

energy) Use of agri waste and renewable to meet rural energy demand


Types of CDM projects & SDTypes of CDM projects & SD

Waste management– Urban solid waste – methane capture and use

Reduce air pollution Reduce water pollution Reduce requirement for land Provides alternative energy resources lower dependence on

fossil fuel

– Agriculture residue and animal waste Indoor health using biogas Rural electricity – residential and for economic growth

Forests – ecological protection


Submitted W-t-E projectsSubmitted W-t-E projectsProject Title

Waste handled per day (tonne)

Annual Electricity produced (MWh)

Emission reduction (methane capture) (T CO2 eq)

Emission reduction (fossil fuel displaced) (T CO2 eq

Other benefits

Salvador Landfill capture

3150 315000 904942 157500

Biomethanation, Lucknow

300 40000 101848 30000 75 tpd of organic manure

Landfill gas capture, Brazil

2000 288 51000

Durban landfill

67800 384512 56960


CDM – SD in developing countriesCDM – SD in developing countries

Climate

Development

Environment

CDM and SD spaceEnergy (supply and

demand)Waste

management (urban and agriculture)

Forestry


Share of Energy Sector GHG EmissionsShare of Energy Sector GHG Emissions

IEA estimates that at the global level, carbon emissions from energy related activities represent about 70% of all GHG emissions. Non-carbon energy-related emissions represent another 10-15%.

Source: World Energy Council (http://www.worldenergy.org/ accessed on 3 March 2004 )

The U.S. energy sector CO2 emission in 1997 accounted for 86% of total GHG emissions of the country (Toman, 2001).


Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in South Asian Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in South Asian

Countries, 2000Countries, 2000

Commercial Energy Consumption 1

Total (Quadrillion

Btu) Petroleum Natural

Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectric Other

Carbon Dioxide

Emissions 3 (Million

metric tons of carbon)

Bangladesh 0.50 30% 68% 1% 0% 1% 0% 7.7

Bhutan 0.01 24% 0% 21% 0% 55% 0% 0.1

India 12.67 32% 7% 53% 1% 6% 0.2% 253.3

Maldives 0.004 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.1

Nepal 0.06 57% 0% 14% 0% 24% 5% 0.8

Pakistan 1.91 41% 42% 5% 0% 12% 0% 29.5

Sri Lanka 0.18 78% 0% 0% 0% 22% 0% 2.6

Total 15.28 34% 13% 44% 1% 7% 0.2% 294.1

Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Database, May 2002

Share of fossil fuels ranges from 45% (Bhutan) to 99% (Bangladesh). Coal share highest in India (53%).


Energy Consumption and COEnergy Consumption and CO22 Emissions in South-east Emissions in South-east Asian Countries, 2000Asian Countries, 2000

Total (Quad BTU)

Petroleum

Natural Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear

Geothermal etc. CO2

Cambodia 0.01 94.63 0.00 0.00 5.37 0.00 0.00 0.15

China 39.67 25.77 3.13 63.95 6.91 0.43 0.03 831.74

Indonesia 4.63 46.94 27.84 19.59 2.26 0.00 1.11 87.13

Korea, North 2.84 6.16 0.00 86.04 7.80 0.00 0.00 67.19

Korea, South 8.06 55.06 10.24 21.04 0.30 13.28 0.06 120.80

Laos 0.01 36.73 0.00 0.18 91.15 0.00 0.00 0.10

Malaysia 2.27 42.06 42.12 3.62 3.27 0.00 0.00 36.15

Mongolia 0.07 26.53 0.00 71.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.59

Philippines 1.25 56.74 0.55 16.32 6.55 0.00 20.36 18.62

Thailand 2.90 55.78 28.17 12.68 2.22 0.00 0.83 48.49

Vietnam 0.76 50.54 6.26 20.26 22.94 0.00 0.00 12.56

CO2emission are in million metric ton of CO2 equivalent;

Energy consumption by fuel source is in %age


Technical Potential for Primary Energy Savings in Steel making in Technical Potential for Primary Energy Savings in Steel making in 19951995

If India reduces energy intensity of steel production by 10% (3.7 GJ/tonne) – total energy saved will be 88 million GJ (4.6 million tonnes of Coal equivalent) per year in 1995


Potential CDM projects in industrial sectorPotential CDM projects in industrial sector

Iron and Steel industry Cement industry

Co-generation: Co - generation efficiency = upto 90% Conventional power efficiency = about 35%

– Sugar Industry – Pulp and Paper Industry

Efficient brick kilns

Electricity DSM programs in industry


COCO2 2 and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel

dependencedependenceCO2 intensity

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

kg C

O2/

199

5 U

SD OECD

Non-OECD

Energy Intensity

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

'000

Qua

d TP

ER/1

995

USD

OECD

Non-OECD

Fossil Fuel Dependence

78.00

80.00

82.00

84.00

86.00

88.00

90.00

92.00

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

% F

ossi

l fue

l in

TPER

OECD

Non-OECD

Higher growth rates of non-OECD energy and CO2 emissions due to :

•Significantly higher energy and CO2 emission intensities

•Higher dependence on fossil fuels

•Higher GDP growth ratesData source: EIA website, March 2004


Natural Gas Reserves in Selected Asian CountriesNatural Gas Reserves in Selected Asian Countries

0

200

400

600

800

Myanmar Bangladesh India Pakistan

billi

on c

u m

Source:http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/bm.html


CDM projects through regional energy trade/development in CDM projects through regional energy trade/development in South AsiaSouth Asia

Hydropower development (e.g. in Nepal and Bhutan)– Displacement of thermal in India and other countries

Natural gas based electricity generation- Exploration and regional development of gas pipeline in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh

Fuel switching: oil to gas in transport sector coal/oil to gas in industrial boilers coal/oil to gas for cooking


Potential CDM projects in Transport sector

Electric vehicles (with Non thermal power supply)

Electric rope - ways (with Non thermal power supply)

Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) (with Non thermal power supply)

Use of Bio-diesel/ethanol/methanol etc.


Potential CDM projects in Residential sector

Cooking – Use of biogas as a cooking fuel– Improved cook stoves– Biomass plantation for fuelwood

Lighting – CFL, Slim tubes, electronic ballast

Water heating– Solar Water heater


Potential CDM projects in Commercial sector

DSM programs – Efficient A/Cs, Refrigerators, Lamps


Types of steel projectsTypes of steel projects

pulverized coal injection up to 40% in the blast furnace (primary steel)

Heat recovery from sinter plants and coke ovens (primary steel)

Recovery of process gas from coke ovens, blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces– Steel plant in India, producing 1.6 million ton steel has

submitted CDM project for recovery of BOF gas (80 NM3 per ton of steel with calorific value 2000 kcal/NM3) – will result in 94.84 GWh of electricity and resultant emission reduction of 87895 tCO2.(15 MWh coal power plant)

Power recovery from blast furnace offgases (primary steel)


Types of steel projectsTypes of steel projects

Replacement of open-hearth furnaces by basic oxygen furnaces (primary steel);

Application of continuous casting and thin slab casting;

Scrap preheating in electric arc furnaces (secondary steel); Oxygen and fuel injection in electric arc furnaces

(secondary steel); Efficient ladle preheating;

Documents

AIT Ram M. Shrestha Asian Institute of Technology Thailand 25 th March 2004 25 th March 2004 Energy Use and Clean Development Mechanism Opportunities in