AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System)

AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France

AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System) AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System)

AIRES from occitan language « Aire » [ajré] n.m. : airAIRES from occitan language « Aire » [ajré] n.m. : air

Air Quality Forecasts and Simulations in PACA regionAir Quality Forecasts and Simulations in PACA region

I.I. Historical background Historical background

II. II. ObjectivesObjectives

III. III. AIRES in few wordsAIRES in few words

IV. IV. Assessment : 2001 ESCOMPTE, 2003, 2004Assessment : 2001 ESCOMPTE, 2003, 2004

VV. Conclusion and questions. Conclusion and questions

A. ArmengaudA. Armengaud44, S. Fayet, S. Fayet44, D. Robin, D. Robin44, G. Causera, G. Causera44, O. Sanchez, O. Sanchez33,A. Mangin,A. Mangin33, , F. RouffiF. Rouffi33, B. Théodore, B. Théodore33, O. Hembise, O. Hembise33, R. Vautard, R. Vautard11, F. Lasry, F. Lasry22, I. Coll, I. Coll22

• 1 – LMD : Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau• 2 – LISA, Creteil• 3 – ACRI-ST, Sophia-Antipolis• 4 – AIRMARAIX, Marseille


HISTORICAL backgroundHISTORICAL background

2001 : SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM ESCOMPTE2001 : SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM ESCOMPTE

EMISSIONS INVENTORYEMISSIONS INVENTORYCADASTRECADASTRE

MODELLING EXERCICEMODELLING EXERCICE ESCOMPTE ESCOMPTE

2005 : OPERATIONAL REGIONAL SYSTEM2005 : OPERATIONAL REGIONAL SYSTEM

DAILY FORECAST AND SIMULATION OFDAILY FORECAST AND SIMULATION OFAIR QUALITY IN PACA REGIONAIR QUALITY IN PACA REGION

ESCOMPTESpin-off


YesterdayYesterday

OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES

ObservationsObservationsNetwork PACANetwork PACA

DailyDaily

Monitoring surveyMonitoring survey

Analyse and valuationAnalyse and valuationAir QualityAir Quality

TodayToday TomorrowTomorrow TendancyTendancy

Forecasts 24h, 48hForecasts 24h, 48h

• Improvement of monitoring surveyImprovement of monitoring survey• Improvement of understandingImprovement of understanding• MapsMaps


AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System) : AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System) : Air quality forecast and simulation system in PACA region (Provence Alpes Air quality forecast and simulation system in PACA region (Provence Alpes Côte d’Azur). Daily 3D forecasts of Côte d’Azur). Daily 3D forecasts of ozoneozone, , nitrogen oxidesnitrogen oxides, , aerosolsaerosols and others and others pollutants.pollutants.

• based on CHIMERE and MM5 models (based on CHIMERE and MM5 models (www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/).).• Chemical boundary conditions : from PREV’AIR (Chemical boundary conditions : from PREV’AIR (www.prevair.org).).

AIRES provides fine resolution forecasts at 12h, 24h and 48h over 3 different AIRES provides fine resolution forecasts at 12h, 24h and 48h over 3 different areas (ESCOMPTE, NICE and whole PACA). areas (ESCOMPTE, NICE and whole PACA). Partners : ACRI-ST (Partners : ACRI-ST (www.acri-st.fr), IPSL and LISA, CHIMERE research team (), IPSL and LISA, CHIMERE research team (http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere/index.html).).

AIRES in few wordsAIRES in few words


AIRES in few wordsAIRES in few words

MM5 CHIMERE

www.prevair.org

Outside of PACA3 modes : Monitoring

SurveyModel + obs.

Geostatistical process(from INERIS)

ScenarioForecast

1km-3km


www.enviport.org/AAM


AIRES is taking part in the AIRES is taking part in the ESCOMPTE modelling exercise with ESCOMPTE modelling exercise with ACRI-ST participation. ACRI-ST participation.

ObservationsObservations

CHIMERE-ACRI

MESO-NHC

12h T.U. 21st of June 2001, IOP2a.12h T.U. 21st of June 2001, IOP2a.

Example of comparison between MESO-NHC, Example of comparison between MESO-NHC, CHIMERE-ACRI and observationsCHIMERE-ACRI and observations

AssessmentAssessment


Comparison between ozone temporal profile from AIX PLATANES Comparison between ozone temporal profile from AIX PLATANES ground station (black dots) and CHIMERE-ACRI (model, bold violet ground station (black dots) and CHIMERE-ACRI (model, bold violet line). Others color lines represent all models involved in the line). Others color lines represent all models involved in the ESCOMPTE modelling exercise.ESCOMPTE modelling exercise.



Comparison between ozone vertical profile from ALTO LIDAR Comparison between ozone vertical profile from ALTO LIDAR (observations, left) and CHIMERE-ACRI (model, right) during IOP2b.(observations, left) and CHIMERE-ACRI (model, right) during IOP2b.



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

O3ARLS

O3BETG

O3FSCB

O3ISTR

O3M NDM

O3M RGV

O3M RM S

O3PDBL

O3RBRT

O3SLPV

O3SM DC

O3SM M R

O3SRM Y

O3SSLP

O3VTRL

REC 180

ALE 240

O3AIXA

O3AIXO

O3AIXP

O3BBAI

O3CADA

O3ROUS

O3AUBE

O3CINQ

O3CIOT

O3CUQU

O3M ARG

O3M IRA

O3PENH

SUMMER 2003 : first try by Dr. Robert Vautard MM5+CHIMERE over ESCOMPTE

From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/200316 consecutives days

Begining of the episode

30thof July for 1st of August

180 µg/m180 µg/m33

240 µg/m240 µg/m33



Still no OStill no O3 3

3131st st of julyof july

D+1OBS

D+2


D+1OBS

D+2Begining of the episodeBegining of the episode

11st st of Augustof August


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

O3ARLS

O3BETG

O3FSCB

O3ISTR

O3M NDM

O3M RGV

O3M RM S

O3PDBL

O3RBRT

O3SLPV

O3SM DC

O3SM M R

O3SRM Y

O3SSLP

O3VTRL

REC 180

ALE 240

O3AIXA

O3AIXO

O3AIXP

O3BBAI

O3CADA

O3ROUS

O3AUBE

O3CINQ

O3CIOT

O3CUQU

O3M ARG

O3M IRA

O3PENH

SUMMER 2003

From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/200317 consecutives days 03 peak

During the episode

180 µg/m180 µg/m33

240 µg/m240 µg/m33


D+1OBS

D+2


Etc …Etc …

D+1OBS

D+2


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

O3ARLS

O3BETG

O3FSCB

O3ISTR

O3M NDM

O3M RGV

O3M RM S

O3PDBL

O3RBRT

O3SLPV

O3SM DC

O3SM M R

O3SRM Y

O3SSLP

O3VTRL

REC 180

ALE 240

O3AIXA

O3AIXO

O3AIXP

O3BBAI

O3CADA

O3ROUS

O3AUBE

O3CINQ

O3CIOT

O3CUQU

O3M ARG

O3M IRA

O3PENH

SUMMER 2003


Finally : 15th for 17th

180 µg/m180 µg/m33

240 µg/m240 µg/m33


D+1OBS

D+2


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

O3ARLS

O3BETG

O3FSCB

O3ISTR

O3M NDM

O3M RGV

O3M RM S

O3PDBL

O3RBRT

O3SLPV

O3SM DC

O3SM M R

O3SRM Y

O3SSLP

O3VTRL

REC 180

ALE 240

O3AIXA

O3AIXO

O3AIXP

O3BBAI

O3CADA

O3ROUS

O3AUBE

O3CINQ

O3CIOT

O3CUQU

O3M ARG

O3M IRA

O3PENH

SUMMER 2003


180 µg/m180 µg/m33

240 µg/m240 µg/m33

START

PERSISTENCE

END


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

01/0

5/2

004

08/0

5/2

004

15/0

5/2

004

22/0

5/2

004

29/0

5/2

004

05/0

6/2

004

12/0

6/2

004

19/0

6/2

004

26/0

6/2

004

03/0

7/2

004

10/0

7/2

004

17/0

7/2

004

24/0

7/2

004

31/0

7/2

004

07/0

8/2

004

14/0

8/2

004

21/0

8/2

004

28/0

8/2

004

04/0

9/2

004

11/0

9/2

004

18/0

9/2

004

25/0

9/2

004

O3AIXA

O3AIXO

O3AIXP

O3BBAI

O3CADA

O3ROUS

O3AUBE

O3CINQ

O3CIOT

O3CUQU

O3MARG

O3MIRA

O3PENH

O3ARLS

O3BETG

O3FSCB

O3ISTR

O3MNDM

O3MRGV

O3MRMS

O3PDBL

O3RBRT

O3SLPV

O3SMDC

O3SMMR

O3SRMY

O3SSLP

O3VTRL

REC 180

REC 240

SUMMER 2004

Example : 23rd of July

180 µg/m180 µg/m33

240 µg/m240 µg/m33


23 July 2004

D-1OBS This system was operational in summer 2004

South West Breaze


23 July 2004

D+0

D+1OBS

D+2


06

J : 100 %J+1 : 50 %

STATISTICS SUMMER 2004

Forecasted / Observed % validated by a expert

83

J : 60 %J+1 : 50 %

40 days [O3] > 180 µg/m3

DEP. Nb. days

> 180 µg/m3

13 34

83 5

84 7

04 10

06 6

13

J : 78 %J+1 : 68 %

84

J : 100 %J+1 : 85 %

04

J : 90 %J+1 : 80 %

28 dys : 200066 dys : 2003

Composed Breaze :Weak Mistral + South Breaze

OVER-ESTIMATIONIn VAR

Link with Boundary Conditions. NCEP download. Met files are not always available at the right moment.


AIRES isAIRES is• Operationnal : Operationnal : Forecast, survey, scenarioForecast, survey, scenario

• ValidatedValidated : : (still in progress)(still in progress)summers 2001 (ESCOMPTE), 2003 and 2004summers 2001 (ESCOMPTE), 2003 and 2004 •Provide daily datasets to expertsProvide daily datasets to experts who analyze air who analyze air quality over the PACA region.quality over the PACA region.This information is taken into account for This information is taken into account for regional regulation information.regional regulation information.

• Upgreadeable et modularUpgreadeable et modular (links with IPSL, LISA, (links with IPSL, LISA, ACRI-ST)ACRI-ST)

In the near future:In the near future:AIRES will be involved in the PRIMEQUAL AIRES will be involved in the PRIMEQUAL SCENARIOS PROGRAM. SCENARIOS PROGRAM. It will be able to evaluate the different impacts of It will be able to evaluate the different impacts of reductions emissions scenarios. reductions emissions scenarios. (I. COLL and F. LASRY – LISA) 16h20 today !(I. COLL and F. LASRY – LISA) 16h20 today !

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION


We are looking for tracks : forecast improvements in PACA regionWe are looking for tracks : forecast improvements in PACA region

Does-it possible to start earlier D-1 computation ? Spin-up pb. For the Does-it possible to start earlier D-1 computation ? Spin-up pb. For the first hours ? first hours ? • •CHIMERE DUST version ?CHIMERE DUST version ?

- Users returns ?- Users returns ? - specials needs (inventory) ?- specials needs (inventory) ?

- computer time versus « CHIMERE GAS version »- computer time versus « CHIMERE GAS version »- parallel version ?- parallel version ?

• Exchange with others CHIMERE’s users Exchange with others CHIMERE’s users

Specially with people who are faced with Breazes PhenomenaSpecially with people who are faced with Breazes Phenomena- Pond BreazePond Breaze- Sea BreazeSea Breaze- Valley Breaze Valley Breaze

QUESTIONSQUESTIONS

Documents

AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System)