Aircraft Values Book 19A - IBA Aero · increased. Such a type requires new engine technology, expected to be the Rolls-Royce Ultrafan, which is due around 2025. The A350-2000 would

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Aircraft Values BookIssue: 19A March 2019

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ IBA Group Limited, IBA House, 7 The Crescent, Leatherhead, Surrey KT22 8DY, UK T: +44 (0) 1372 22 44 88 |F:+44 (0) 1372 22 44 89 | www.iba.aero

Member of ISTAT. UK CAA Approval No. UK.MG.0622 VAT No: 123 37 13 47 Registered in England Reg.No:2246507

2019A Edition Copyright © 2019 IBA Group Limited

All Rights Reserved

Editorial

Among the biggest news since the previous edition of this publication must be the announcement by Airbus that it is to terminate the A380-800 in 2021, following completion of

the current backlog. It would not be wrong to say that it has been likely such an announcement would occur, with ANA and Emirates being the only customers remaining on

backlog, following Amedeo’s cancellation which occurred on the same day as the termination announcement. Despite being an engineering marvel and raising the bar in terms

of passenger comfort, the A380-800 has struggled to have wide spread appeal even with operators at hub airports and some operators have announced either reduction in fleet

size, such as Air France which will return five examples to lessors in 2019, or complete withdrawal, such as Qatar Airways which will retire their examples from 2024 on. With the

end of the A380-800 program the transition to an all twin-engine widebody offering will be complete.

When one door closes another one opens, Airbus have stated that with the termination of the A380-800 program, that the possibility of the A350-2000 becoming a reality has

increased. Such a type requires new engine technology, expected to be the Rolls-Royce Ultrafan, which is due around 2025. The A350-2000 would compete directly with the

Boeing 777-9, given that 2025 is the timeframe at which many operators will be looking for a replacement type for the 777-300ER, there is likely to be strong competition between

Airbus and Boeing for market share at the top end of the market towards the middle of the next decade.

Unsurprisingly, perhaps the most contentious piece of news is the recent Boeing 737 MAX grounding. The nature of the grounding is of course tragic; but for the benefit of all,

we hope Boeing has as smooth a remedy as possible and that the aircraft can be back in service some time during the forthcoming northern hemisphere high summer season.

As the values in the MAX pages clearly show, we have not over- reacted and started slashing values of the MAX 8 and MAX 9, the important thing here is to monitor proceedings.

On a more positive note, we are seeing new types continuing to enter the market, the A330-900 entering revenue service with TAP Air Portugal, whilst the likes of the 787-10,

A320neo and A321neo continue to increase their operator base.

As has been mentioned in recent editions of this publication, new generation types, both narrowbody and widebody, is the suppression of lease rates. It is widely expected that

these rates will start to recover this year, they may not immediately recover to what would normally be expected however longer term, a full recovery is possible. As always, IBA

welcomes any feedback you may have on the format and content of this publication and would love to hear on the market and trading.

Many thanks from IBA’s Valuation Team.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ IBA Group Limited, IBA House, 7 The Crescent, Leatherhead, Surrey KT22 8DY, UK T: +44 (0) 1372 22 44 88 |F:+44 (0) 1372 22 44 89 | www.iba.aero


Contents

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ IBA Group Limited, IBA House, 7 The Crescent, Leatherhead, Surrey KT22 8DY, UK T: +44 (0) 1372 22 44 88 |F:+44 (0) 1372 22 44 89 | www.iba.aero


i 2019A Edition

Copyright © 2019 IBA Group Limited All Rights Reserved

Section i: Worldwide Distribution & Market Share

30 – 69 Seat Regional Jets i.2



100 – 119 Seat Commercial Jets i.5





230+ Seat Commercial Jets i.10


300+ Seat Commercial Jets i.12

http://www.iba.aero/



ii 2019A Edition


Section 1: Airbus

Summary Information 1.3

A220-100 1.8

A220-300 1.10

A300B4-600R 1.12

A310-300 1.14

A318-100 1.16

A319ceo 1.18

A320ceo 1.20

A320neo 1.22

A321-100 1.24

A321-200 1.26

A321neo 1.28

A330-200 1.30

A330-300 1.32

A330-900 1.34




iii 2019A Edition


Section 1: Airbus (continued)

A340-300 1.36

A340-500 1.38

A340-600 1.40

A350-900XWB 1.42

A350-1000XWB 1.44

A380-800 1.46

Section 2: AvCraft


Dornier 328JET 2.3




iv 2019A Edition


Section 3: BAE SYSTEMS


Avro RJ100 3.3

Avro RJ85 3.5

BAe 146-100 3.7

BAe 146-200 3.9

BAe 146-300 3.11

Section 4: Boeing


717-200 4.9

737-300 (CFM56-3B/CFM56-3C) 4.11

737-400 (CFM56-3C) 4.13

737-500 4.15

737-600 4.17

737-700 4.19




v 2019A Edition


Section 4: Boeing (continued) 737-800 4.21

737-900 4.23

737-900ER 4.25

737 MAX 8 4.27

737 MAX 9 4.29

747-400 4.31

747-8I 4.33

757-200 4.35

757-300 4.37

767-200ER (CF6-80C/PW4000) 4.39

767-300 (CF6-80C/PW4000) 4.41

767-300ER 4.43

777-200 4.45

777-200ER 4.47

777-200LR 4.49

777-300 4.51




vi 2019A Edition


Section 4: Boeing (continued) 777-300ER 4.53

787-8 4.55

787-9 4.57

787-10 4.59

Section 5: Bombardier


CRJ100 5.3

CRJ200 5.5

CRJ700 5.7

CRJ900 5.9

CRJ1000 5.11




vii 2019A Edition


Section 6: Embraer


ERJ 135 6.5

ERJ 140 6.7

ERJ 145 6.9

Embraer 170 6.11

Embraer 175 6.13

Embraer 190 6.15

Embraer 190-E2 6.17

Embraer 195 6.19

Section 7: Fokker


Fokker 70 7.3

Fokker 100 (Tay 620-15) 7.5

Fokker 100 (Tay 650-15) 7.7




viii 2019A Edition


Section 8: McDonnell Douglas Summary Information 8.2

MD-82 (JT8D-217C/-219) 8.4

MD-83 8.6

MD-88 8.8

MD-90-30 8.10

Section 9: Sukhoi


Sukhoi Superjet SSJ 100-95B 9.3




ix 2019A Edition


ISTAT Definitions

All the data contained in this publication is in accordance with ISTAT definitions, which are included below.

Base Value is the Appraiser's opinion of the underlying economic value of an aircraft in an open, unrestricted, stable market environment with a reasonable

balance of supply and demand, and assumes full consideration of its "highest and best use". An aircraft's Base Value is founded in the historical trend of values

and in the projection of value trends and presumes an arm's-length, cash transaction between willing, able and knowledgeable parties, acting prudently, with

an absence of duress and with a reasonable period of time available for marketing.

In most cases, the Base Value of an aircraft assumes its physical condition is average for an aircraft of its type and age, and its maintenance time status is at

mid-life, mid-time (or benefiting from an above-average maintenance status if it is new or nearly new, as the case may be).

Market Value or Current Market Value (if the value pertains to the time of the analysis) is the Appraiser's opinion of the most likely trading price that may be

generated for an aircraft under the market circumstances that are perceived to exist at the time in question. Market Value assumes that the aircraft is valued

for its highest, best use, that the parties to the hypothetical sale transaction are willing, able, prudent and knowledgeable, and under no unusual pressure for a

prompt sale, and that the transaction would be negotiated in an open and unrestricted market on an arm's-length basis, for cash or equivalent consideration,

and given an adequate amount of time for effective exposure to prospective buyers.

Fair Market Value is synonymous with Market Value, and likewise Current Fair Market Value is synonymous with Current Market Value, because the criteria

typically used in those documents that employ the term "Fair", reflect the same criteria set forth in the above definition of Market Value.

The Aircraft Values Book contains Current Fair Market Values and Base Values for various aircraft based on the current “standard specification” as discussed in

the Methodology section below.

Rating Score

The IBA ratings are a result of several factors, both qualitative and quantitative in nature. The qualitative and quantitative factors are primarily based on an

assessment of the aircraft types' attributes. The main issues affecting an aircraft type’s rating include: future residual values, impact of a weak market on

values and re-marketability. There are several market factors that influence the aforementioned issues and these include; technology of the aircraft, operator




x 2019A Edition


base, fleet size, order backlog, remaining useful life, freight conversion potential, market share, maintenance cost, specific fuel consumption, greenhouse gas

emissions and general market acceptance. All of these factors have been taken into account by IBA to determine the rating for each aircraft type. The rating

scale ranges from A++ for a low risk asset to E-- for a high risk asset as follows:

A+ A A- A-- B++ B+ B B- B-- C++ C+ C C- C-- D++ D+ D D- D-- E++ E+ E E- E--

Moderate Risk High/Moderate RiskLow Risk High Risk

Aircraft Values Book Methodology

The Aircraft Values Book has been constructed around the following criteria:

Scope: Modern technology passenger jet aircraft with an entry into service date of post-1980 or within six months of publication of the Aircraft Values Book.

Method: Determination of values includes account of replacement price, age, market condition, depreciation based on resale history and useful economic life.

Aircraft are considered within the market segment to which they belong and compared with the competitor aircraft in the segment.

Assumptions:

average annual new price escalation (inflation) for forecasting of 1.5%

current / balanced market condition with balance achieved at levels perceived appropriate for today’s market

each aircraft type depreciates over a fixed economic lifetime

standard / mid-time maintenance condition

good /average physical condition

typical utilisation

configured for typical passenger service

standard / average specification unless otherwise indicated

NB: Depreciation matrices are validated semi-annually against the latest available data.




xi 2019A Edition


Standard / Average Specification

When an aircraft is new to the market the values are based on the initial (“basic”) specification as published by the manufacturer. This specification will include

items such as aircraft weights, engine manufacturer and model, seating configuration and avionics fit, to name a few. However, as production and orders

develop, airlines and lessors will select various options. It is usual, as the aircraft program matures, for the level of specification typically ordered to become

more advanced. IBA considers the most typical (“standard”) level of specification recently ordered to be that which is most relevant for determining the aircraft

values in this book.

For aircraft that are no longer in production, the level of specification most prevalent in the market, across the whole of the type's fleet, is considered to

represent the “standard” level of specification and IBA's values are based upon this standard. Aircraft with inferior or superior levels of specification when

compared to the “standard specification” aircraft, will attract negative or positive value adjustments to the values shown, as appropriate.

Market Reference Data Definitions

Information regarding general characteristics of the aircraft is given for comparison purposes at the beginning of each section. Every effort has been made to

convey correct technical information.

Six market reference charts have been included which have been used as the partial basis for IBA’s opinion on aircraft value. These charts detail current and

historical demand based on airframe and engine type, as well as geographical placement of the airlines and aircraft. The effective date for all data in this issue

(Issue 19A of the Aircraft Values Book) is 7th February 2019 and has been sourced from IBA.iQ.




xii 2019A Edition


Orderbook History

Net orders and cancellations are shown from the year of program launch to the most recent year of production except where noted. Net orders represents the

total number of firm orders placed with the manufacturer in a given year minus the cancellations in that same year. Cancellations show the number of aircraft

orders cancelled by airlines and lessors in the year in which they were cancelled and can include orders which have been switched to another type (i.e. 5x ERJ

135s which have been switched to 5x ERJ 145s will be displayed as five cancellations on the ERJ 135 chart and five new orders on the ERJ 145 chart).

Delivery Stream Based on Current Orders & Manufacture Rates

Scheduled and delivered aircraft are shown from the year of first delivery through confirmed deliveries, based on aircraft on orders and options, and also

include an element of planned manufacture rates, when known. If an aircraft is currently out of production, the delivery month and year of the last aircraft has

been noted on the summary page at the beginning of the section.

Fleet Ownership for Aircraft Type

This chart provides a snapshot of the ownership status on a geographical basis of the active passenger fleet. Where the operator and owner are the same,

“Owner” is recorded. Where the operator differs from the owner, “Lessor” is recorded.

Geographic Distribution

Similar to the Fleet Ownership chart, this graph shows the geographic spread of the passenger configured aircraft currently operating and parked throughout

the world regions. Also included is the quantity currently in storage and on order, broken down by geographic location. From this chart, a greater geographic

spread indicates greater opportunity for secondary market trading, and a high proportion of stored aircraft usually indicates a depressed market or a change of

aircraft role.

Engine Demand

Based on the current passenger fleet, demand for each engine variant for a given airframe is detailed as well as the number of airlines operating a given engine.

These two charts combine to develop a profile of proliferation and acceptance of a given engine type. It may indicate a situation whereby a large population of




xiii 2019A Edition


a given engine is spread over a low number of operators and therefore may generate few re-marketing possibilities. If that were the case, a discount to the

values may be appropriate and therefore reflected in the aircraft value page.

Average Availability

Aircraft that have been listed for sale and/or lease are summarised in this chart to give an indication of movement in the second-hand market for each type.

Values for availability are given as an average per month over the quarter. For example, if the following availability were reported in each of month 1, 2 & 3 –

12 aircraft, 0 aircraft & 7 aircraft – an average of 6.3 aircraft ((12+0+7)/3) would be reported for that quarter.

Disclaimer

IBA Group Limited (IBA) has prepared the enclosed aircraft values book (Aircraft Values Book). The Aircraft Values Book is subject to the disclaimer below.

IBA has no present interest in the aircraft being appraised for the purpose of the Aircraft Values Book (Aircraft). At the date of the Aircraft Values Book, IBA does

not anticipate acquiring any subsequent interest in the Aircraft. Unless otherwise stated, IBA has had no prior interest in the Aircraft. IBA’s appraisal of the Aircraft

is honestly held and the Aircraft Values Book shall be deemed advisory only, with such advice being solely to the extent noted in the Aircraft Values Book. To the

fullest extent permitted by law, IBA assumes no responsibility or legal liability for any action taken, or not taken, whether directly or indirectly by the Client or by

any third party, with regard to the Aircraft and the Client agrees that IBA shall bear no such responsibility or legal liability in respect of the same.

To the fullest extent permitted by law, IBA, its associated companies, subsidiaries, directors, sub-contractors, agents and employees are not liable for any

oversights, errors or omissions in relation to the Aircraft Values Book.

To the fullest extent permitted by law, in relation to the Aircraft Values Book, IBA shall bear no responsibility for any interpretation applied, inference made or

conclusion reached by the Client or any third party.


Boeing 737‐700

Market Reference Data

Section 4: Boeing130 ‐ 156 Seat Commercial Jets

Predominantly 2‐Class Configurations

IBA Group Limited, IBA House, 7 The Crescent, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 8DY, UK 4.19

T: +44 (0) 1372 22 44 88 |F: +44 (0) 1372 22 44 89 | www.iba.aero 2019A Edition

Copyright © 2019 IBA Group Limited

Member of ISTAT. UK CAA Approval No. UK.MG.0622 All Rights Reserved

VAT No: 123 37 13 47 Registered in England Reg. No: 2246507

Africa Asia Pacific Europe &CIS

LatinAmerica Middle East North

America

Owners 7 15 9 4 0 16

Lessors 11 16 23 7 4 6

0

5

10

15

20

25

Num

ber o

f Owne

rs

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Net Orders 63 6 37 75 781198820556 3910055 8213568 39 20 36 27 10 ‐10‐16‐30 0

Cancellations 0 0 0 0 2 2 13 2 14 16 2 1 0 2 4 1 0 0 10 49 57 42 39 65

‐50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Num

ber o

f Airc

raft

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Delivered 3 92 122 91 98 84 84 114 98 119 106 67 55 32 51 9 17 14 10 9 4 3

Scheduled 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Num

ber o

f Airc

raft

Delivery Stream Based on Current Orders& Manufacture Rates

Africa Asia Pacific Europe &CIS

LatinAmerica Middle East North

America Unknown

In Service 29 169 91 65 4 633 0

On Order 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Stored 13 6 9 0 1 21 0

% Total 4.0% 16.8% 9.6% 6.2% 0.5% 62.8% 0.0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Num

ber o

f Airc

raft

Geographic Distribution of 737‐700 FleetCurrent Fleet: 1,041 aircraft

CFM56‐7B20

CFM56‐7B22

CFM56‐7B24

CFM56‐7B26

CFM56‐7B27

% of Aircraft 6.0% 51.3% 37.7% 5.1% 0.0%

% of Operators 13.3% 48.8% 30.1% 7.8% 0.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

% of F

leet/Total Airlines

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

Avg. Avail. 6.0 6.0 6.0 3.0 2.3 4.3 5.3 6.6 3.3 3.0 1.7 4.0 2.3 2.6 2.0 7.3 4.0 4.0 4.7 4.3 5.0 2.0

% of Fleet 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Num

ber o

f Airc

raft

737‐700 Orderbook History1993 to 2016

Fleet Ownership for 737‐700Total: 51 owners & 67 lessors

Engine Demand for 737‐700 737‐700 Average AvailabilitySale and/or Lease, 3Q 2013 ‐ 4Q 2018

Current fleet represents in service & stored aircraft

Boeing 737‐700W

138,500lb, (97‐07) CFM56‐7B22, (08‐12) CFM56‐7B22/3, (13+) CFM56‐7B22E, Winglets IBA Aircraft Rating : BCurrent Market Value & Base Values Valid for January delivered aircraft in January only

Values in US Dollars (millions)Annual inflation of 1.5% assumed

Year of Delivery CMV 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034

2019 35.90 35.90 33.72 31.57 29.48 27.45 25.49 23.61 21.80 20.06 18.41 16.84 15.46 14.15 12.89 11.69 10.562018 34.15 34.50 32.32 30.19 28.13 26.14 24.22 22.39 20.62 18.95 17.35 15.95 14.61 13.33 12.11 10.96 9.842017 32.34 33.00 30.85 28.75 26.74 24.79 22.93 21.15 19.45 17.84 16.41 15.05 13.75 12.51 11.34 10.20 9.122016 30.55 31.50 29.38 27.34 25.37 23.49 21.68 19.96 18.33 16.88 15.50 14.18 12.92 11.73 10.57 9.48 8.452015 28.60 29.79 27.74 25.76 23.87 22.06 20.33 18.69 17.23 15.84 14.51 13.24 12.04 10.87 9.77 8.73 7.752014 26.71 27.83 25.86 23.99 22.19 20.47 18.85 17.39 16.01 14.68 13.42 12.22 11.06 9.96 8.93 7.95 7.022013 24.69 25.99 24.12 22.34 20.64 19.02 17.57 16.19 14.87 13.61 12.42 11.26 10.17 9.14 8.16 7.23 6.362012 23.04 24.25 22.47 20.78 19.17 17.72 16.34 15.02 13.76 12.57 11.41 10.32 9.29 8.31 7.38 6.51 5.682011 21.27 22.63 20.95 19.35 17.90 16.53 15.21 13.96 12.77 11.61 10.52 9.50 8.52 7.60 6.72 5.89 5.112010 19.74 21.00 19.42 17.99 16.62 15.32 14.08 12.90 11.75 10.67 9.65 8.68 7.77 6.90 6.07 5.30 4.562009 18.34 19.51 18.08 16.73 15.44 14.20 13.03 11.89 10.83 9.82 8.85 7.94 7.08 6.26 5.48 4.75 4.052008 17.04 18.13 16.79 15.51 14.29 13.13 12.00 10.95 9.95 9.00 8.09 7.23 6.42 5.65 4.92 4.23 3.602007 15.77 16.78 15.49 14.27 13.10 11.97 10.91 9.90 8.94 8.03 7.17 6.35 5.57 4.84 4.14 3.51 2.912006 14.78 15.56 14.35 13.20 12.08 11.04 10.04 9.10 8.20 7.34 6.53 5.76 5.03 4.34 3.71 3.11 2.552005 13.74 14.31 13.16 12.05 11.00 10.02 9.07 8.18 7.32 6.51 5.75 5.02 4.32 3.70 3.10 2.54 2.022004 12.75 13.15 12.03 10.99 10.00 9.06 8.16 7.31 6.50 5.74 5.01 4.32 3.69 3.10 2.54 2.022003 11.72 11.96 10.93 9.95 9.01 8.12 7.27 6.47 5.71 4.98 4.30 3.67 3.08 2.53 2.012002 10.92 10.89 9.91 8.98 8.09 7.25 6.45 5.69 4.97 4.28 3.66 3.07 2.52 2.002001 10.16 9.90 8.97 8.08 7.24 6.44 5.68 4.96 4.28 3.66 3.07 2.52 2.002000 9.50 9.02 8.13 7.28 6.48 5.72 4.99 4.30 3.68 3.09 2.53 2.011999 8.90 8.14 7.29 6.48 5.72 4.99 4.30 3.68 3.09 2.53 2.011998 8.40 7.50 6.67 5.88 5.14 4.43 3.78 3.18 2.60 2.061997 8.00 7.00 6.17 5.39 4.64 3.97 3.33 2.72 2.15

Comments

IBA Group Limited, IBA House, 7 The Crescent, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 8DY, UK 4.20

T: +44 (0) 1372 22 44 88 |F: +44 (0) 1372 22 44 89 | www.iba.aero 2019A Edition

Copyright © 2019 IBA Group Limited

Member of ISTAT. UK CAA Approval No. UK.MG.0622 All Rights Reserved

VAT No: 123 37 13 47 Registered in England Reg. No: 2246507

Section 4: Boeing130 ‐ 156 Seat Commercial Jets

Predominantly 2‐Class Configuration

We are yet to see Southwest removing Boeing 737‐700s from the fleet, however it has been confirmed that the largest operator of the 737‐700, will retire 20 examples in 2019 as it takes on further Boeing 737 MAX 8s and introduces the Boeing 737 MAX 7. There is some concern as to who, if anyone, will take the ex‐Southwest Boeing 737‐700s, as Southwest have been one of the most active players in the secondary market. The 737‐700 has the option of a P2F conversion, Alaska Airlines and now Spicejet have taken on the first conversions of the type. Having a P2F option of course allows for a new avenue to be opened, which can in the long run aid in keeping values higher than if there was no such option. Some of the more recent secondary market activity has centred around aircraft being sold for part out, which does not bode well for values in the long term.

Documents

Aircraft Values Book 19A - IBA Aero · increased. Such a type requires new engine technology, expected to be the Rolls-Royce Ultrafan, which is due around 2025. The A350-2000 would