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1 John Leahy CCO of Airbus North America Investor Forum 2004 New York – December 3rd, 2004 Airbus Foundations of Leadership 2 Airbus today 12 models 5,093 aircraft sold to 197 customers 3,722 delivered 290 2004 deliveries to end November Data to end November 2004

Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

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Page 1: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

1

John Leahy CCO of Airbus

North America Investor Forum 2004New York – December 3rd, 2004

AirbusFoundations of Leadership

2

Airbus today

12 models5,093 aircraft sold to197 customers

3,722 delivered290 2004 deliveries

to end NovemberData to end November 2004

Page 2: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

3

Revenues

$37.5 billion$37.5 billion

Airbus$17.7B

47%

Boeing$19.8B

53%

2004 order share and value

Data to end November 2004

Airbus218 aircraft

51%

Boeing207 aircraft

49%

425 firm orders425 firm orders

Units

4

2004 orders by size category

100-200 seater

304 orders

717737757

125 a/c41%

A320 Family179 a/c

59%

200-275 seater

67 orders

A300A310

A330-2006 a/c9%

7677E7

61 a/c91%

275-375 seater

44 orders

77711 a/c25%A330-300

A34033 a/c75%

375+ seater

10 orders

10747

100%

0 A3800%

Data to end November 2004

Page 3: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

5

Order evolution - gross

% share of gross unit orders: 1995 – end November 2004

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Airbus18%

Boeing82%

Boeing49%

Boeing49%

Airbus51%Airbus51%

6

Deliveries

Airbus261 aircraft

52%

Boeing238 aircraft

48%

499 aircraft delivered499 aircraft delivered

2004 to end October

Airbus305 aircraft

52%

Boeing281 aircraft

48%

586 aircraft delivered586 aircraft delivered

2003

Page 4: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

7

Delivery trend

294 311 325 303 305 315

620489 527

381281 287

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004E

AirbusAirbus

BoeingBoeing

800 852

684586

914

602

32%

52%

Airbus’ delivery share

8

2004 world traffic to grow at 11.4% vs 2003

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

E

% year over year change - RPK

Source: ICAO, Airbus forecast

Page 5: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

9

World air transport operating result (EBIT)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

E*

Billions US$

Source: IATA, Airbus estimates for 2004

An average of $40 / Barrel will reduce EBIT from ~ $3.5B to ~ $1An average of $40 / Barrel will reduce EBIT from ~ $3.5B to ~ $1BB

2004 averagefuel price

$30 / barrel

$40 / barrel

10

Only a small part of the current parked fleetis likely to return to active service

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

YtD

OldMidNew

Source : Airclaims End Oct 2004

Number of western built passenger jets parked at year endby generation

Only 250 to 300 currently parked aircraft will return to service

Page 6: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

11

No oversupply of aircraft

29

1

23

37

1

Airbus Boeing

End September 2004

MD-80/90

757-200

737NG

737SG

717

91

26

12

A closer look at parked A320 Family

• Of 26 A320 Family parked

– 8 temporarily parked

– 15 have known placements

– 3 no current placement (0.1% fleet)

• Availability far lower than perceived

• Parked fleet is very dynamic - not same aircraft month-to-month

12

8

5

3

16

A319 A320 A321

Available (no current placement)Known placementTemporarily parked by operator

End September 2004

Page 7: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

13

A320 Family lease rates have made a strong recovery

• Negative impacts on lease rates:– General market conditions post 9/11– 6 major bankruptcies

- SAB, CMM, AAA, SWR, AES & AEF- 128 A320 Family released

– Chapter 11 filings· USA, UAL, ACA· 550+ A320 Family involved with

potential for many ‘rejections’

• Drivers of a strong recovery– Planned production increase not

implemented & strict ‘no white tail’ policy– Proactive role of Airbus with lessors and

other owners to place aircraft– Rapid expansion of operator base– Improvement of general market

conditions, especially outside North America

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

14

Leasing markets and aircraft availability

Page 8: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

15

Leasing companies’ backlog (end October 2004)

1399 aircraft

AirlineBacklog:

987aircraft70.5%

LeasingBacklog:

412 aircraft29.5%

16

Lessor placement rates

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005

UnplacedPlaced

8 open slots

Page 9: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

17

Leasing placement trend

0

25

50

75

100

125

150Number of aircraft

106

2004

52

114

138

2002 20032001

171 aircraft placed in the last 12 months proves clear recovery of the market

65106

Last 12 months: 171 a/c

18

Page 10: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

19

A321 & A330-200 : a new wave in the “mid-market”

A321

A330-200

A300/A310

767

757

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Early 1990s757 & 767 captured

80% of the market sector

New WaveA321 & A330-200 capture

>80% and rising

Deliveries share

20

Cost ofOwnership

(40%)

Economic realities

Fuel(30%)

Landing & nav.fees (21%)

Flight crew(27%)

Maintenance(22%)

CashOperating

Cost(60%)

Typical cash operating cost breakdown

TotalOperating

Cost

Page 11: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

21

Similar operating costs per seat

1.83.612.9Flight crew

0.61.17.6Landing & nav

-1.5-2.9-8.5Fuel

As % of Total Operating Cost

per seat

As % of COCper seat

Delta %7E7-8 vs. A330-

200 as datum

0.51.65.6Maintenance

Total +3.0% +1.4%

7E7 @ 217 seatsA330-200 @ 245 seats

22Subject to launch

Page 12: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

23

250 & 300 seat 20-year demand

• 250 seats: 1800 aircraft- 767-300ER- 7E7-8- A330-200- A350-800

• 300 seats: 1300 aircraft- 777-200ER/LR- 7E7-9- A330-300- A340-300- A340-500- A350-900

2020--year market is 3100 aircraftyear market is 3100 aircraft

24

A350 highlights

All new cabinAll new cabin

Full titanium pylonFull titanium pylon Centre wing box in CFRPCentre wing box in CFRP

CFRP outer wing boxCFRP outer wing box Optimised fuselage Optimised fuselage design (Aldesign (Al--Li)Li)

Rear fuselageRear fuselageAlAl--Li or CFRPLi or CFRP

New HTPNew HTPPassive and active Passive and active

load alleviationload alleviation

New high bypass New high bypass enginesengines

Wing drag Wing drag improvementsimprovements

Page 13: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

25

A350-800 competitive highlights

Seats (3-class)

Full passenger load range (nm)

Block fuel / seatCash cost / seat

MWE per seat

Noise classification Londonarrivaldeparture

A350-800 7E7-8

245 217

8600nm 8500nm

Datum +2.5%Datum +7%

Datum +3%

QC 0.5 QC 0.5QC1 QC1

26

A350-900 competitive highlights

Seats (3-class)

Full passenger load range (nm)

Block fuel / seatCash cost / seat

MWE per seat

Noise classification Londonarrivaldeparture

A350-900 7E7-9 777-200ER

275 257 290

7600nm 8100nm 7700nm

Datum equal +20%Datum +3% +6%

Datum same +10%

QC 0.5 QC 0.5 QC 1QC1 QC 1 QC 2

Page 14: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

27

28

560t

555 seats8000 nmEIS 2006

590t

150 t5620 nmEIS 2008

A380 – an all new, state-of-the-art design

Page 15: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

29…now 139 firm orders

& commitments

Strong market confidence

10 A380

2 A38010 A380F

12 A3806 A380

10 A3805 A380 & 5 A380F

6 A38015 A380

5 A3804 A380

41 A380 & 2 A380F

6 A380

30

23 commitments in the last 14 months

October 2003October 2003Korean Air 5 A380s

December 2003December 2003Malaysia Airlines6 A380s

July 2004July 2004Etihad (MOU)4 A380s

December 2003December 2003Qatar Airways2 A380s

August 2004August 2004Thai (MOU) 6 A380s

Page 16: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

31

Top 20 airlines by RPK

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Thai

Cat

hay

Paci

ficEm

irate

sSi

ngap

ore

Qan

tas

Briti

sh A

irway

sSo

uthw

est

Kore

an

Lufth

ansa

AMR

Iber

iaAi

r Fra

nce

ANA

US

Air

Con

tinen

tal

Uni

ted

Air C

anad

aN

orth

wes

tJA

LSD

elta

1Q2004 for JALS, Air France includes KLM

1st Half 2004 net profit margin in %

A380

A380

A380

A380A38

0A38

0

A380

32

747747--400400

Superior range and economics

COC per m2 of cabin Datum --26%26%

A380A380--800800

Seats 412 555555

Max TOW (tonnes) 397 560560

Max range (nm) 7100 80008000

COC per seat Datum --17%17%

Page 17: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

33

* gross area less cut-outs for stairs/lifts and minimum regulatory aisles / assist space

Datum747-400 A380

+50%Relativenet usable*floor area

35%moreseats

More volume, more seats, more comfort

More comfort per

seat

A380 walk through

A new life in the air – new version with 16m

Page 18: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

35

The GREEN GIANT for our planet

* 5000 nm sector, Typical International Flight Profile, 555 pax

The first long-haul aircraft with less than3 litres per pax/100km fuel consumption*

36

350 400 450 500 550 600 650 MTOW (t)

London departure

QC8

QC2

747-400875 klb MTOW

QC4

747-400X910 klb MTOW

A380A380

35% more pax & half the noise

A380 A380 -- the low noise answer for growththe low noise answer for growth

Page 19: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

37

Growth by both fragmentation and consolidation

The real world: fragmentation The real world: fragmentation andand consolidationconsolidation

CONSOLIDATIONCONSOLIDATION

• More cost-effective

• Hub dominance

• Global network

• Linking major hubs

• The logic behind alliances

FRAGMENTATIONFRAGMENTATION

• Hub by-passing

• Market development

• Frequency on thin routes

• The business traveller’spreference

38

Large aircraft operations are concentrated

KIXKIXFUKFUK

NRTNRT

HKGHKG

LHRLHR

TPETPEBKKBKK

ANCANC

ICNICN

SINSIN

LAXLAXHNDHND

FRAFRA

JFKJFK

AMSAMS

SYDSYD

CDGCDG

SFOSFOORDORD

DXBDXB

KULKUL

CTSCTS

PVGPVG ITMITM

MNLMNL

PEKPEK

RUHRUH

JNBJNB

BOMBOM

AKLAKL

HNLHNL MIAMIAOKAOKA

DELDEL

LUXLUX

MELMEL

JEDJED

80% of all 747 movements are concentrated into just 37 airports

All of these airports, and many more, are either ready, preparedAll of these airports, and many more, are either ready, preparedor planning for A380 operations or planning for A380 operations

Page 20: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

39

Europe-Asia scheduling constraints

Airport curfews & passenger convenience mean all flights are Airport curfews & passenger convenience mean all flights are constrained to very limited time windowsconstrained to very limited time windows

LON 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

HKG 19 20 21 22 23 24 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

LHR-HKG November 11 2004CX 250 18.50 744BA 025 19.00 744BA 031 20.40 744CX 252 21.00 343VS 200 21.30 346CX 254 21.55 744BA 027 22.05 744

HKG-LHR November 12 2004BA 026 23.25 744VS 201 23.35 346BA 032 23.45 744CX 251 23.55 744CX 255 00.25 343QF 029 01.20 744

40

Origin/destination passengers to mainland China

Source: MIDT 2003

Beijing

ShanghaiGuangzhou

Mainland ChinaFinal destination cities

90% to 3 cities90% to 3 cities

ChicagoBoston

Honolulu New York

Los Angeles

SanFrancisco

Washington

USAFirst origin cities

70% from 3 cities70% from 3 cities

Origin-destination traffic between U.S. and China

Page 21: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

41

Meeting passenger expectations

5% 4% 4%1% 1%

7%

14%17%

11%

33%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Price

Convenient schedule

Frequent flier

Non-Stop flights

Previous g

ood experience

Other

Safety reputation

Loyalty to ca

rrier

Employer policy

In-flight se

rvice

On-time re

putation

Airline criteria of choice on US int’l flightsWhat is your main reason for flying on this airline?

Source: US Commerce Department Survey (ITA ), 2004

% of respondents

42

A380 routes - 2008

Page 22: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

43

As one era ends…

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

159159

102102

7777 7777

A380A380LaunchLaunch

Data to end September 2004

62625252

3737 3636

……another one begins another one begins

85859595

129129139139

25F

747A380

44

Introduction of 747 at New York

Mar. 70 Jun. 70 Sep. 70 Mar. 71 Jun. 71

Competition & Competition & product preferenceproduct preference forced all airlinesforced all airlinesto rapidly introduce the 747 at New Yorkto rapidly introduce the 747 at New York

15 months

747707BOAC

Air France 747707

Lufthansa 747707

Pan Am 747

747TWA

JAL 747DC8

Source: ICAO

Page 23: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

45

Introduction of 747 at Tokyo

Dec. 71 Mar. 72 Jun. 72 Sep. 72 Dec. 72

747707Air France

747DC8JAL

747707Lufthansa

747707Pan Am

747747Northwest

6 months

Source: ICAO

Competition & Competition & product preferenceproduct preference forced all airlinesforced all airlinesto rapidly introduce the 747 at Tokyoto rapidly introduce the 747 at Tokyo

46

Introduction of 747 at London

Mar.70 Jun. 70 Mar. 71 Jun. 71 Sep. 71

747707JAL

747Pan Am

18 months

747707BOAC

TWA 747

Source: ICAO

Competition & Competition & product preferenceproduct preference forced all airlinesforced all airlinesto rapidly introduce the 747 at Londonto rapidly introduce the 747 at London

Page 24: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

47

Introduction of 747 at Hong Kong

Source: ICAO

Dec. 71 Mar. 72 Jun. 72 Sep. 72

747707Air France

747707Lufthansa

747707Pan Am

747747Northwest

9 months

747707BOAC

Sep. 71

Competition & Competition & product preferenceproduct preference forced all airlinesforced all airlinesto rapidly introduce the 747 at Hong Kongto rapidly introduce the 747 at Hong Kong

48

Page 25: Airbus Foundations of Leadership closer look at parked A320 Family ... - 128 A320 Family released – Chapter 11 filings · USA, UAL, ACA · 550+ A320 Family involved with potential

49

Certain of the statements contained in this document are not historical facts but rather are statements of future expectations and otherforward-looking statements that are based on management‘s beliefs. These statements reflect the Company‘s views and assumptionsas of the date of the statements and involve known and unknown risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance orevents to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.

When used in this document, words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”, “intend”, “plan to” and “project” areintended to identify forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements include, without limitation, projections forimprovements in process and operations, new business opportunities, revenues and revenues growth, operating margin growth, cashflow, deliveries, launches, compliance with delivery schedules, performance against Company targets, new products, current andfuture markets for the Company products and other trend projections.

This forward looking information is based upon a number of assumptions including without limitation:· Assumption regarding demand· Current and future markets for the Company‘s products and services· Internal performance including the ability to successfully integrate EADS‘ activities to control costs and maintain quality· Customer financing· Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations· Favourable outcomes of certain pending sales campaigns

Forward looking statements are subject to uncertainty and actual future results and trends may differ materially depending on varietyof factors including without limitation:· General economic and labour conditions, including in particular economic conditions in Europe and North America,· Legal, financial and governmental risk related to international transactions· The Cyclical nature of some of the Company‘s businesses· Volatility of the market for certain products and services· Product performance risks· Collective bargaining labour disputes· Factors that result in significant and prolonged disruption to air travel world-wide· The outcome of political and legal processes, including uncertainty regarding government funding of certain programs· Consolidation among competitors in the aerospace industry· The cost of developing, and the commercial success of new products· Exchange rate and interest rate spread fluctuations between the Euro and the U.S. dollar and other currencies· Legal proceeding and other economic, political and technological risk and uncertainties“

Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the Company‘s document de référence”dated 1st April 2004.The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Consequently the Company isnot responsible for any consequencies from using any of the above statements.

Safe Harbor Statement