Airbus and The Boeing Company 1 Hank Reed Aviation Safety The Boeing Company Hank Reed Aviation Safety The Boeing Company Aviation Safety Challenges and

1Airbus and The Boeing Company

Hank ReedAviation Safety

The Boeing Company

Hank ReedAviation Safety

The Boeing Company

Aviation Safety Challenges and Opportunities for COSCAP Regional

Safety Teams

Aviation Safety Challenges and Opportunities for COSCAP Regional

Safety Teams

Gerard GuyotSafety Consultant

Airbus

Gerard GuyotSafety Consultant

Airbus

A Manufacturer’s PerspectiveA Manufacturer’s Perspective


Aviation Safety: Some PerspectiveAviation Safety: Some Perspective

Worldwide:

An airplane is landing approximately every two seconds somewhere in the world– Approximately 53,000 flights per day

More than 3 million people fly each day

In 2006, Over 1.2 billion people flew on over 20 million flights

In 2006, there was 7 fatal accidents

Airbus and The Boeing Company

09-15-04 PUB-015

Airline Travel is Extraordinarily SafeAirline Travel is Extraordinarily Safe

42,643

CommercialAirlines*

Generalaviation

Recreationalboating

and othermarine

Railtransportation

Highway Othercommercial

aviation

703 767626

4773

U.S. Transportation Fatalities – 2003*Source: NTSBNumber

ofFatalities

Bicycles

622

*5-Year (ending in 2003) average for commercial Jets, U.S. operations only


Hull Loss Accident RateWestern-Built Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs) 1993 - 2005

… And we are making progress!… And we are making progress!

0.00

0.40

0.80

1.20

1.60

2.00

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

5 year running average5 year running average

Hull Loss Accident Rate(per million departures)

Hull Loss Accident Rate(per million departures)

Industry/Government Collaborative Efforts


1-19-05 FT-004Wc

Annual Hull loss accident rate[Accidents per million departures]

We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety…


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020


1-19-05 FT-004Wc

Annual Hull loss accident rate[Accidents per million departures]Annual Hull loss accident rate[Accidents per million departures]

Airplanes in service

2006 2021

20,042

32,495



Departures, MillionsDepartures, Millions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020


1-19-05 FT-004Wc

Hull loss accidentsper year

Hull loss accidentsper year

Annual Hull loss accident rate[Accidents per million departures]Annual Hull loss accident rate[Accidents per million departures]

Departures per year, MillionsDepartures per year, Millions

Business as usual

Reductions possible with continued Industry effort

Airplanes in service

2006 2021

20,042

32,495



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020


Departures and Flight HoursWorldwide Operations* 1987 through 2006

Departures and Flight HoursWorldwide Operations* 1987 through 2006

*Western fleet

• 487.5 million cumulative departures since 1959 (396.1 million on Boeing airplanes)

• 874.4 million cumulative flight hours since 1959 (684.9 million on Boeing airplanes)

• 7 manufacturers – 35 significant types (14 Boeing) in service as of 12/31/2006

Annual departures

andflight hours (millions)

Year

20.0

40.3Flight hoursDepartures

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06


25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

02005 2010 2020

Number ofairplanes at

years end

2002

32,000

30000

GROWTH

• Public Confidence• Strong Economies• Peace & Prosperity

LIMITS TO GROWTH

2015

• Safety/SecurityPerceptions

• Traffic Congestion• Environmental Factors

Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet is Growing, But There are Limits to Growth

Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet is Growing, But There are Limits to Growth


Because the Aviation System Is Complex,All Parts of Industry Must Work TogetherBecause the Aviation System Is Complex,All Parts of Industry Must Work Together

More than 21,000 airplanes

150,000+ flight crew200+ languages

200+ countries800+ airlines

1,350+ major airports

240,000+ maintenance personnel


Safety Responsibilities Are SharedSafe Airplane + Safe Operation + Safe Infrastructure = Safe Air Travel

Safety Responsibilities Are SharedSafe Airplane + Safe Operation + Safe Infrastructure = Safe Air Travel

Safe airplane design Safety-enhancing technology

development Flight and maintenance

operations, recommendations,documents, training, andsupport

Maintenance planning Safety-related analysis Safety initiatives

Operations policy andprocedures

Airplane/pilot publications Approved maintenance

program Maintenance, policy, and

procedures Maintenance publications Safety program Training

ManufacturersGovernments

Operators

Aviation law Operations specification Rules and regulations Inspectors policy,

procedures, and training Airline policy and

procedures requirements Safety, health, environmental

law, and regulations Navigation facilities/operations Airport facilities Departure en route, arrival,

approach policy, andprocedures

Air traffic control services Safety-related analysis

Air Safety


Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident CategoryFatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category

Number of fatal accidents (89 total)

20 5 8 2 2 3 3 219 162 2 15 71

1643 (67)

262 (77)

156 (71)

126 (0) 124 (2) 120 (0) 110 (10) 110 (4) 109 (1)

2 (0) 1 (0)

Fatalities

External fatalities [Total 249]

Onboard fatalities [Total 5,149]

1655 (0)

546 (0)

ARC Abnormal Runway ContactCFIT Controlled Flight into or Toward TerrainF-NI Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact)FUEL Fuel RelatedLOC-G Loss of Control – GroundLOC-I Loss of Control – In flight MAC Midair/Near Midair CollisionOTHR OtherRAMP Ground HandlingRE Runway ExcursionRI-VAP Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or PersonSCF-NP System/Component Failure or Malfunction

(Non-Powerplant)SCF-PP System/Component Failure or Malfunction

(Powerplant)TURB Turbulence EncounterUSOS Undershoot/OvershootUNK Unknown or UndeterminedWSTRW Wind shear or Thunderstorm

No accidents were noted in the following categories:AMAN Abrupt ManeuverADRM AerodromeATM Air Traffic Management/

Communications, Navigation, SurveillanceCABIN Cabin Safety EventsEVAC EvacuationF-POST Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact)GCOL Ground CollisionICE IcingLALT Low Altitude OperationsRI-A Runway Incursion – AnimalSEC Security Related

For a complete description go to: http://www.intlaviationstandards.org/

107 (1)55 (9)

23 (0) 0 (7)

External fatalities

Onboard fatalities

Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST.

Fatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 1997 Through 2006

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

LOC-I CFIT SCF-NP

RE MAC LOC-G OTHR UNK RI-VAP F-NI USOSWSTRW ARC FUEL RAMP SCF-PP

TURB


Fatal Accidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of FlightFatal Accidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of Flight

Fatal accidents

Onboard fatalities

Taxi, load/unloadparked,

tow

Takeoff Initialclimb

Climb Cruise Descent Initialapproach

Finalapproach

Landing

11

4

Fatal accidents

617

7

625

967

9

Initialapproach

10%

14%

12%

Descent

5%

6%

11%

Finalapproach

10%

15%

3%

Percentage of accidents/fatalities

Takeoff

11%

12%

1%

Initialclimb

8%

17%

1%

Landing

22%

5%

1%

Taxi, load/unload parked,

tow

13%

0%

Climb(flaps up)

11%

12%

14%

Cruise

10%

19%

57%

19% 32%

29% 20%

Fatal Accidents

Onboard Fatalities

Distribution of fatal accidents and onboard fatalities

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

858

299 275

Onboard fatalities

716 788

4

Exposure* (Percentage of flight time estimated for a 1.5 hour flight)

Initial approach

fixFinal

approach fix

212006 STATISTICAL SUMMARY, JULY 2007

10 10 9 9

20

<1%

*Percentages do not sum to 100% due to numerical rounding.

Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 1997 Through 2006


Fatal Accidents - Asia (including China) Airline Domicile - 1997 Through 2006

Number ofFatal

Accidents(22)

Number ofFatal

Accidents(22)

88 66 11 22 33 11 11

980980

462(61)462(61)

225225

108108

38(3)38(3)11 11

FatalitiesFatalities





ARC Abnormal Runway ContactCFIT Controlled Flight into or Toward TerrainF-NI Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact)LOC-I Loss of Control – In flight RE Runway ExcursionSCF-NP System/Component Failure or Malfunction


(Powerplant)


Communications, Navigation, SurveillanceCABIN Cabin Safety EventsEVAC EvacuationF-POST Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact)FUEL Fuel RelatedGCOL Ground CollisionICE IcingLALT Low Altitude OperationsLOC-G Loss of Control – GroundMAC Midair/Near Midair CollisionOTHR OtherRAMP Ground HandlingRI-A Runway Incursion – AnimalRI-VAP Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or PersonSEC Security RelatedTURB Turbulence EncounterUSOS Undershoot/OvershootUNK Unknown or UndeterminedWSTRW Wind shear or Thunderstorm


ARC Abnormal Runway ContactCFIT Controlled Flight into or Toward TerrainF-NI Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact)LOC-I Loss of Control – In flight RE Runway ExcursionSCF-NP System/Component Failure or Malfunction


(Powerplant)


Communications, Navigation, SurveillanceCABIN Cabin Safety EventsEVAC EvacuationF-POST Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact)FUEL Fuel RelatedGCOL Ground CollisionICE IcingLALT Low Altitude OperationsLOC-G Loss of Control – GroundMAC Midair/Near Midair CollisionOTHR OtherRAMP Ground HandlingRI-A Runway Incursion – AnimalRI-VAP Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or PersonSEC Security RelatedTURB Turbulence EncounterUSOS Undershoot/OvershootUNK Unknown or UndeterminedWSTRW Wind shear or Thunderstorm


External fatalitiesExternal fatalities

Onboard fatalitiesOnboard fatalities

Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST.Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST.

Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident CategoryFatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

CFIT LOC-I SCF-NP

RE ARC FIRE-NI SCF-PP


Asia (Including China) Airline Domicile Fatal Accidents by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident CategoryAsia (Including China) Airline Domicile Fatal Accidents by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

CFIT

LOC-I

ARC

RE

SCF-NP

F-NI

SCF-PP

8

6

3

2

1

1

1

ARC Abnormal Runway ContactCFIT Controlled Flight into or Toward TerrainF-NI Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact)LOC-I Loss of Control – In flight RE Runway ExcursionSCF-NP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Non-Powerplant)SCF-PP System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Powerplant)

RI-A Runway Incursion – AnimalRI-VAP Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft

or PersonSEC Security RelatedTURB Turbulence EncounterUSOS Undershoot/OvershootUNK Unknown or UndeterminedWSTRW Wind shear or Thunderstorm

AMAN Abrupt ManeuverADRM AerodromeATM Air Traffic

Management/Communications, Navigation, Surveillance

CABIN Cabin Safety EventsEVAC EvacuationF-POST Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact)

No accidents were noted with the following principal categories:

FUEL Fuel RelatedGCOL Ground CollisionICE IcingLALT Low Altitude OperationsLOC-G Loss of Control – GroundMAC Midair/Near Midair CollisionOTHR OtherRAMP Ground Handling


Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST


Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1997 through 2006

Accidents permillion departures

Accident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldRegional PerspectiveRegional Perspective

United Statesand Canada

0.5

Latin Americaand Caribbean

2.4

Europe0.7

China0.3

Middle East3.0

Africa12.0

Asia1.9

World1.16

Oceania0.0

(ExcludingChina)

C.I.S.4.9

ESSI

PAAST

CAST

ASET

COSCAPS


Possible Reasons for Regional Accident Rate Differences

Possible Reasons for Regional Accident Rate Differences

Infrastructure– Air traffic control– Navigation aids– Airport equipment– Weather services

Airline operations– Procedures– Training– Maintenance– Dispatch

Regulatory oversight– Aviation law– Regulation– Personnel qualifications– Resource constraints


*Representing P&W and RR

DODFAA

• Aircraft Certification• Flight Standards• System Safety• Air Traffic Operations• Research

NASAICAOEASATCCNATCANTSB

AIAAirbusALPAAPAATANACABoeingGE*RAAFSFIATAAAPAATACAPFA

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

Industry Government

Commercial Aviation Commercial Aviation Safety TeamSafety Team

(CAST)(CAST)


Worldwide Risk AnalysisWorldwide Risk AnalysisWorldwide Risk AnalysisWorldwide Risk Analysis

CAST plan developed to reduce fatality risk in U.S. Part 121 operations

Question was raised by ICAO, PAAST and ESSI as to effectiveness of CAST plan worldwide

Worldwide fatal accident data from 1987 – 2001 analyzed using the CAST selection tool

– 331 accidents, which had sufficient data, were analyzed and scored


Portion of Regional Fatality Risk

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Portion of the Fatality Risk in Each Accident Location RegionAttributed to CFIT

Portion of the Fatality Risk in Each Accident Location RegionAttributed to CFIT

(1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Fatal Accidents)

Latin America & Caribbean

Asia Europe Africa North America


Portion of the Fatality Risk in Each Accident Location Region Attributed to CFIT That Can be Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted

(2007 Implementation Values)

Portion of the Fatality Risk in Each Accident Location Region Attributed to CFIT That Can be Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted

(2007 Implementation Values)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Latin America & Caribbean

Asia Europe World Africa North America

Portion of Regional Fatality Risk (Percent)

1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Fatal and Hull Loss Accidents

Risk Eliminated

Risk Remaining


ConclusionConclusion

Commercial air travel is extraordinarily safe, but improvements must continue to be made

Not all areas or environments of the world are the same — we need to use facts, data, and continuing insight to focus appropriate improvement efforts

Improving safety in Asia is a shared responsibility of the manufacturers, the airline operators, and Government/State authorities, but it will take willingness and commitment to make it happen

COSCAP regional safety teams and similar safety organizations can help to reduce accident risk

Considerations should be given to implementing appropriate CAST Safety Enhancements to reduce fatality risk

Airbus and Boeing are committed to help enhance aviation safety

Rapid growth of commercial aviation in ASIA presents significant challenges


Next StepsNext Steps

Measure implementation levels and effectiveness of processes and procedures already put in place (e.g. adopted CAST Safety Enhancements)

Integrate appropriate elements of the Global Aviation Safety Roadmap

Identify gaps that exist and form plans to address

Establish an information-sharing process to better gauge effectiveness of enhancements and identify emerging threats

Documents

Airbus and The Boeing Company 1 Hank Reed Aviation Safety The Boeing Company Hank Reed Aviation Safety The Boeing Company Aviation Safety Challenges and