Air Transport 1903 - 1950

Air Transport 1950 - 2000

Air Transport2000 - 2050

• Carbon constrained or carbon free flight.

• Aerospace technology or eco-efficiency?

• UK visitors to Greece 1950 20,0002000 2,000,0002050 ??

The Problem is the Rate of Growth

Drivers for Future Growth

Aviation, City and Regional Development

• High speed carriage of people and high value goods over long distances.

• Accessibility to remote and island communities.

Economic Development(NW England)

The Multicultural Society

Travel for Personal Fulfilment

The Global Society

Aviation’s Contribution to the Development of Humankind

• Patterns of trade / migration

• Global socio-economy

• Intergovernmental alliances EC,SADC,MERCOSUR, AL

• Russia,India,China,Brazil.

• Next Africa?

Aviation and Sustainable Mobility

• Airports have critical role as inter-modal transport hubs.

• Airport capacity provision is therefore critical

Environment constrains airports when :

• Noise, emissions

or risk exceed:– regulatory limits

– local agreements

– community tolerance

– political support

Environment constrains airports when:• The airport cannot ensure

secure and adequate resources (water, energy) to allow normal operations.

• Due competition with other industries, homes, tourism, farming.

Environment Constrains Airports when:

• Further infrastructure growth is restricted by sensitive habitats, culturally sensitive sites or buildings (houses).

The move away from carbon fuels is more than Climate Change Issue.

• Increasing demand for aviation fuel by 2050-60?

• Peak oil now

• 50 yrs conventional oil remain

• Alternatives costly and limited production potential

Carbon Free in 50 Years?

• Monumental challenge

• Step change in Technology & Infrastructure.

• 20-30 years away?

• Who will fund this change?

Can we have a Global Society in a Carbon Constrained World?