Air Pollution RisksThe Causality Loop of Human Activity

and its Consequences

Brandon Gustafson

Causality Loop

• Human activity and its associated risks operate in a loop• Populations engage in activities that affect their welfare• These activities spur a chain of events that leads to the

associated risk of these activities• These risks work to further effect welfare• From here actions are taken and the cycle repeats• This presentation will detail the steps and provide an

example• Using the example we will estimate ways to reduce the

risks• Next we will put our example in perspective • Finally we offer some commentary and some analysis

Causality Loop

General Description

• Given Population• Participates in

activities which increase welfare

• Goods and Services are in demand to provide for these activities

• Goods and services require materials

General Description

• Materials flow causes pollution of varying concentrations

• Pollutants at varying concentrations have varying effects

• Each effect posses different risks to humans

General Description

• These risks in turn effect our welfare

• Our welfare being effected causes us to develop policy for action

• These actions lead to a changes in our activity

Quantification of Risk

Quantification of Risk

• Start with a given population

• Engages in “a” activities person

• Which requires “g” goods and services per activity

• In turn requires “m” materials per good and service required

Quantification of Risk

• The use of materials produces pollution with concentration “c” per mass flow of material

• The concentration level has effect “e” per concentrate

• Which produces risk “r” per effect

Quantification of Risk

• The coefficients are multiplied to find the overall risk

• This effects welfare and action is taken

• To reduce risk action can be taken at any node affecting the coefficient associated with it and thus the overall equation

Key Features

• The entire process functions in a loop

• Each action is connected to overall welfare

• Overall welfare affects future action

• Ideally an equilibrium is reached where utility is maximized while risk is minimized

Example

• People like to consume electricity

• They use it to increase their personal utility or welfare everyday

• To meet the demands power companies have to generate enough electricity

California Electricity

• 33.9 Million people used 78 TWh of electricity residentially in the year 2000

• 61.9 kWh per dollar ($) GSP• Or, 2300 kWh per person

Brown, Richard E. and Jonathon G. Koomey, “Electricity Use in California: Past Trends and Present Usage Patterns” May 2002 UC-Berkley

California Pollution• Raw materials such as coal and other fossil fuels

flow to power production plants• Pollution is produced• Pollution in units of pounds per kWh is listed

below for 8 major pollutantsCO2

lbs/kWh

NOx

lbs/kWh

SO2

lbs/kWh

Hg

lbs/kWh

PM10

lbs/kWh

PM2.5

lbs/kWh

VOC

lbs/kWh

CO

lbs/kWh

California 0.633 0.000522 .000173 4.21x10-11 0.000006 0.000008 0.000026 0.000175

Leonardo Academy Inc. “Emission Factors and Energy Prices for the Cleaner Greener Environmental Program” January 2003

Pollution Density

• Table depicts the amount of pollution per person• However, this is only accounting for residential

use, which is typically the end use anyway

CO2

lbs/person

NOx

lbs/person

SO2

lbs/person

Hg

lbs/person

PM10

lbs/person

PM2.5

lbs/person

VOC

lbs/person

CO

lbs/person

California 1456.5 1.2 0.398 9.7x10-8 0.021 0.018 0.06 0.403

Leonardo Academy Inc. “Emission Factors and Energy Prices for the Cleaner Greener Environmental Program” January 2003

California Effects

• The effects of these pollutants are mild and severe

• Respiratory problems to simply impaired visibility

• Especially the young, the old, and the asthmatic

California Risks

• The risk depends on the person

• Each year 50,000 people are estimated to have died from air pollution

• Those with previous lung conditions are at the greatest risk

• Although, we are all at elevated risk

Welfare to Action

• Reduced health and death reduce welfare

• Reduced welfare spurs action

• Governmental agencies set pollution limits

• California Air Resources Board website goes online

Types of Actions

• To increase welfare and/or reduce risk

• Reducing the population would reduce risk

• Reducing activity will decrease risk but may also decrease welfare

• Use less materials i.e. be more efficient

• Output lower concentrations of pollutants

• Output pollutants that have less effect and associated risk

Actions and the Causality Coefficients

• At each node actions can be taken to reduce the overall risk

• Population is difficult to change but people can change their actions

Action Example

• People can turn their lights off sooner in the day and use 5% less electricity

• Engineers can improve transmissions lines and light bulb efficiency so that each activity requires 5% fewer kWh

Action Example

• Engineers can increase factory efficiency by 5%, using less raw materials to produce each kWh

• Factories can use different fuels that have 5% less pollutants in terms of concentration

Action Example

• Care can be taken in selecting fuels and combustion techniques so that the effect of any pollutants emitted is reduced by 5%

• Communities can plan where to build factories and people can be smart about when they conduct certain activities reducing the risk by 5%

Action Example

• These simple reductions lead to an overall decrease of 26.5% of what it otherwise would be

• 0.95a*0.95g*0.95m*0.95c*0.95e*0.95r*P = 0.735(a*g*m*c*e*r*P) => 26.5% reduction

World Perspective

• Although different units, the comparison is striking

City SO2

Micrograms per cu. m

Population

Thousands

Los Angeles 9 12, 410

Tehran 209 6, 836

Rio de Janeiro 129 10, 181

http://www.worldbank.org/nipr/wdi98/table3.12.pdf

WHO Healthy Cities Air Management Information System and the World Resources Institute 1996

Comments and Analysis

• Each action is made through a single decision

• However, the consequences to these actions are borne by all

• This is known as an externality and subsequently is a market failure

• People are not aware of the full cost of conducting their action and therein lies the problem

• To remedy this problem the community can educate but this provides little incentive

• In truth, education combined with externality taxation is best

• Improvement can be made at any node

• However, factory efficiency is pretty good and marginal improvements are small

• The big improvements need to come from efficiency of human activity

• More activity does not always mean better welfare but it does mean greater risk

• Also in the long run a shift to a cleaner energy source is a must

Summary

• The Causation Loop of Human Activity is a cycle• Human welfare is adjusted up and down

respectively by increased human activity which leads to increased risk

• The cycle was explained and an example was presented to demonstrate the cycle

• A hypothetical experiment estimated the ways to reduce the overall risk of activity

• After analyzing a US city, the numbers were put into perspective with the rest of the world

• Finally comments and analysis were offered