Air Network and Netted Air Pollution

1Copyright (c) Beihang SEM

Presented by Xueying Yu

The Aero-Econ Team from Beihang University:

Ying Fan, Jinxing Hao, Chunan Wang, Xueying Yu, Junhuan Zhang

ICAO Aviation Data and Analysis Seminar, 11 July 2019, Istanbul

Aviation Air Pollution

2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 2

Data Source: ICAO Environment Report, 2016

Aviation Air Pollution

⚫ Aircraft jet engines, like many other mobile sources, produce CO2, CO,

unburned hydrocarbons (HC), NOX, VOCs, PM and other trace compounds

⚫ Airport emissions are also affected by emissions from Auxiliary Power Units

(APUs), ground service vehicles, and other ground transportation and power

plants.

2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 3

Aviation Air Pollution

4

Source: European Aviation Environmental Report, 2019

Aviation Air Pollution

⚫ Aviation is a significant source of pollutant emission

➢ 3.6% of EU28 greenhouse gas emissions in 2016

⚫ Continuously expanding aviation industry

➢ # of flights increases by 8% during 2014-2017

➢ # of major airports is expected to increase by over 20% during 2017-2040

⚫ While ambient measurements around airports typically show little to no

contribution from airport emissions (Zurich Airport, 2013), recent studies have

shown elevated PM levels near airports (Hudda et al., 2014; Keuken, et al. 2015)

➢ LAX is estimated to be the largest point source of CO emissions in CA, and

the 2nd largest of NOX (Schlenker & Walker, 2016)2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 5

Air Pollution in China

6Source: Zheng et al., 2018. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Air Pollution Impacts on the Environment and Human Health

⚫ Human health: a well-known cause of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases

➢ Respiratory system diseases: lung disease, lung cancer, aggravated asthma

➢ Cardiovascular system diseases: heart attacks, stroke

➢ Others: low birth weight and preterm delivery

⚫ Agriculture losses

⚫ Forest losses

⚫ Man-made material damages

⚫ Reduced visibility and losses in recreational benefits

•2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 7

⚫ Each year, over 3,000,000 statistical lives are lost over the world

⚫ Ambient air pollution: A global assessment of exposure and burden of diseases

(WHO, 2016)

➢ Over $ 2.1 billion cost in human health in 2015

➢ The number will count to over $176 billion in 2060

⚫ The economic consequences of outdoor air pollution (OECD, 2016)

➢ Over 1.2 billion lost labor days in 2015

➢ The number will count to over 3.7 billion in 2060

•2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 8

Air Pollution: A Silent and Costly Killer

Motivation

⚫ The effect of pollution on health remains a highly debated topic

⚫ Health impacts of air pollution are important inputs for air quality regulations

➢ US EPA: PM10 in 1987 and PM2.5 in 1997

➢ China: PM2.5 in 2013

⚫ A lack of systematic evidence of health impacts in developing countries

2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 9

Objectives

⚫ Quantify the short-term, daily impacts of air pollution on health among

general population (human morbility and mortility)

➢ Address endogeneity in air pollution leveraging the network structure of

airport runway congestion

⚫ Decipher which pollutant is responsible for adverse health outcomes

➢ Rely on the fact that pollutants are emitted at different rates during each

phase of operation, e.g. taking-off and climbing generate high rates of NOX

emission and taxing is usually associated with CO emission

2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 10

Air Pollution in China

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3-Year Average PM2.5 from 2013-2015 (𝜇g/m3)

Data Source: www.aqistudy.cn

Airport Delay Minutes during June 2018

Data Source: ICAO ADS-B Database

Airport Runway Congestion in Turkey

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A similar plot as in Page 8 for Turkey airports

Airport Runway Congestion in China

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Airport Runway Congestion in China _ Pollutant Specifics

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Airport Congestion and Air Quality _ Fuzhou

PM2.5 PM10 SO2 NO2 CO*10 线性 (PM2.5) 线性 (PM10) 线性 (SO2) 线性 (NO2) 线性 (CO*10)

Airport Runway Congestion in China _ Northern Hubs

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Airport Congestion and Air Quality _ Hubs in the North

Beijing Shanghai Chengdu Zhengzhou Shenyang

线性 (Beijing) 线性 (Shanghai) 线性 (Chengdu) 线性 (Zhengzhou) 线性 (Shenyang)

Airport Runway Congestion in China _ Southern Hubs

2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 16

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Airport Congestion and Air Quality _ Hubs in the South

Guangzhou Shenzhen Hangzhou Kunming Nanjing Wuhan Hefei

线性 (Guangzhou) 线性 (Shenzhen) 线性 (Hangzhou) 线性 (Kunming) 线性 (Nanjing) 线性 (Wuhan) 线性 (Hefei)

Airport Runway Congestion in China _ Western Hubs

2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 17

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Airport Congestion and Air Quality _ Hubs in the West

Lhasa Xining Yinchuan Urumqi Huhhot

线性 (Lhasa) 线性 (Xining) 线性 (Yinchuan) 线性 (Urumqi) 线性 (Huhhot)

Possible Solution: Other Indexes for Airport Congestion

2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 18

With well-tuned ADSB data, building multiple Air Congestion Indexes that

reflect different congestion status:

• Idling congestion: total minutes of airplane idling at an airport in each hour

at each airport

• Taxing congestion: total minutes of airplane taxing at an airport in each hour

at each airport

• Hovering congestion: total minutes of airplane low draging at an airport in

each hour at each airport

Instrument Variable: Airport Runway Congestion

2019/7/20 Copyright (c) Beihang SEM 19

𝑝𝑖𝑡=𝛼1𝐶𝑖𝑡 +𝐖𝑖𝑡𝚽+𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑡 +𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑡 +𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡 + 𝜈𝑖+𝑒𝑖𝑡Second Stage:

First Stage:

𝐳𝑖𝑡Γ

𝑦𝑖𝑡=𝛽ෞ𝑝𝑖𝑡 + 𝐳𝑖𝑡Π+𝜂𝑖+𝜖𝑖𝑡

𝑦𝑖𝑡: Health condition at location i during period t

ෞ𝑝𝑖𝑡: Fitted air pollution at location i during period t

𝐶𝑖𝑡: Airport congestion at location i during period t

𝐖𝑖𝑡: Weather conditions at location i during period t

𝑝𝑖𝑡: Air pollution at location i during period t

Possible Results: Health Impacts

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Source: Hoek et al., 2013. Environmental Health

Possible Results: Social Cost of Pollution

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Study Hammit, 2006 Wang et al, 2006 Zeng, 2010 Gao, 2015 Wang, 2010 Xu, 2008

Payment

Range (RMB)20-1000 1-2000 0-1000, 0-500 0-15000 0-800

Risk reduction70/10000→

10/10000;

20/10000

20/100000→

15/100000

10/100; 5/1000 90/100000→7

5/10000010/10000

3.44/100000

Estimation RMB 14.3

10/1000：970-

1000元；5/1000：728-

780元

RMB 100-200 RMB 759元 RMB 76.3

VSL $4000-$17000 RMB 286,000RMB 0.8—1.2

million

RMB 0.7-1.3

million

RMB 0.9-2.0

millionRMB 2.2 million

Q&A

Thanks

2019/7/20 22Copyright (c) Beihang SEM

2019-7-11