AIR HIJAU & KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN smno.psdlub.2013

AIR HIJAU &

KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN

smno.psdl.ppsub.2013

MK. PENGELOLAAN SDALH

Professor M.FalkenmarkStockholm International Water Institute

Stockholm Resilience Center. 2009

Sustainable development and innovationWater, ecohydrology and energy

EPFL, Lausanne 3 March 2009

Food and environmental sustainability– The water perspective

_________________________

KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN:Environmental sustainability

__________________________

Non-undermining of the life support system

Apa peranan air bersih – freshwater ?

sebagai ”DARAH” bagi BIOSPHERE

Air : Inti dari sistem penunjang kehidupan

Air = Denominator Umum

* bloodstream of the biosphere* life elexir for human society

DUA MACAM BENTUK AIR

M.Falkenmark March 09

HUJAN

NERACA AIR GLOBAL

Precipitation100 %

65 %

35 %M.Falkenmark March 09

Fungsi-fungsi air

habitat

carrier

biomassproduction

body functions

socio-economic production

Kesehatanaquatic ecosystems

erosion, pollutant transport

food, timber, biofuels

income raisingenergy (hydropower, cooling)

waterfunctions

waterfunctions


Ecosystem protection__________________________

• WHY - fundamental roles in life support system

• WHAT - specific landscape component- ecosystem functioning/ resilience

”

• HOW - determinant identification- minimum requirement

integrated catchment

management offers a way / ILWRM


MASYARAKAT & AIR

Kebutuhan IndividuKebutuhan Sosial

Kebutuhan Ekologis

Manusia dan Masyarakatnya snagat tergantung pada air bersih

• blue water withdrawal may be used in two main ways* some uses are throughflow-based use,

sending return flow back - municipal use - industry

* other uses are consumptive depletive water use

- food, biofuels- timber, carbon sequestration


Perbedaan Hidro-klimatik

Majority of poor and undernourished /ca 1 bln ca 450 million rainfed= water constrained agricultural production


Kendala hakiki: Variabilitas air

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Years

Natio

nal r

ainf

all i

ndex

: Var

iatio

n fro

m tr

end

(mm

)

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Tota

l cer

eal p

rodu

ctio

n - V

aria

tion

from

tren

d ('0

00 to

ns)National rainfall index

Cereal production

in water-constrained economies hydrologic variability

complicates food production water storage per person (m3) & the poverty trap….

43746

1 287 1 406

2 4863 255

4 729

6 150

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

Ethiopia

Sou

thAfrica

Thailand Laos

China

Brazil

Aus

tralia

North

America

December rainfall

Cereal yield


Air & Pembangunan Ekonomi

* overcoming hydrological variability = basic-> Ketahanan Air minimum

-- Tiga Kategori Daerah atau Negara: * those that have harnessed their hydrology

industrial countries

* those that are hampered by their hydrology emerging economies

* those that remain hostages of their hydrology

low income countries


TANTANGAN SERIUS :

Ketahanan Pangan Global

Kelangkaan panganKrisis pangan

Kebutuhan Air untuk Produksi Pangan

Produksi pangan membutuhkan air 70 kali lebih banyak daripada kebutuhan domestik rumahtangga

3000 kcal/p d20 % anim prot.


Preferensi Pangan dgn meningkatnya INCOME

rich in meat

vegetarian diet

global average

Water requirementm3/cap day


Produksi Pangan• water needed to

produce food required = HUGE

irrigation cannot contribute muchSSA small rivers

ephemeralSAs river basins closing

rest = to be covered by green water/soil moisture* can improve water

productivity* can expand cropland

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

1960

1970

1980

1990

2002

2015

2030

2050

year

km3 /y

r

0

100

200

300

1960

1970

1980

1990

2002

2015

2030

2050

Increase to reach the Hunger Goal 2015

2002 base line

2002

2030

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2015 2030 2050

km3 /y

r

Additional Green

Additional Blue

2050

Green revolution


Banyak air yang hilang untuk panen di Lahan Kering

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Productive green w ater use% of ET

% o

f Cro

p w

ater

requ

irem

ent

0.20.5

1 ton/ha

2

4

5

6

7

8

3

Farmer's Field

Raindeficiency

Blue w ater lossesrunoffSoil water recharge

Blue w ater losses percolation

Green w ater availability

Rain input

Crop water requirement

Green w ater loss

Out of crop water required:

• only 90 % as rain* only 60 % infiltrates* only 40 % stays in

root zone* only 1/3 of that

taken up by roots

* rest evaporates

Blue water generation

Infiltrated and percolated

gre

g

gree

iin Stored in

root zone


Pilihan di tingkat Nasional

Income (2005) DeficiencyA2 / UN med

SurplusA2 / UN med

Low 1730 / 1400 km3/yr

Cropland expansion

4190 / 3790 Mp

310 / 410 km3/yr Food export 470 / 480 Mp

Medium 1200 / 490 km3/yr

Food import

3110 / 2120 Mp

2240 / 2680 km3/yr Food export

1960 / 1610 MpHigh 330 / 260 km3/yr

Food import

540 / 520 Mp

890 / 880 km3/yr Food export

670 / 630 Mp


Mengurangi Defisit Air• Limited population growth (UN rather than A2 scenario) 2000

km3/yr

• Perbaikan efisiensi air 2220 “

• Pembangunan Irigasi 430 “

• Food import from water surplus countries 750

• Cropland expansion into non-permanent pastures 130 “

• Unresolved ultimate water deficit1270 “


DAERAH ALIRAN SUNGAI:LINTAS BATAS DAERAH / KOTA/

KABUPATEN / PROPINSI / NEGARA

Hubungan Hulu-Hilir - DAS Semiarid Trans-national

00=time zero

00 = forseeable future time

upstream runoff

generation

70

53->15


Hilir

Hulu

Low

High

Low High

Tujuan Pembangunan

Attention to cons. use upstr

Limit downstr requirem.

Limit upstr consumpt. use

Euphr/Tigr

NileNiger

Fleksibilitas: Hidup selalu berubah


Semiarid transnational basin dilemma

__________________________

• growing populations• food demands of new middle class increase

quickly with income

• food security essential to avoid unrest• institution-building essential but takes time:

- development of shared vision + principles, - permanent water commission

+ interacting heads of state,

- flexible transnational river basin agreementM.Falkenmark March 09

KESEIMBANGAN

Sumberdaya Air Hijau – Air Biru

100%

60%

40%

India Kenya


More consumptive use upstream-> less blue water downstream

______________________________

Environmental Water Flows

Green water for Terrestrial Ecosystem services

Blue water for Aquatic Ecosystem services

RAIN

BLUE

GREEN

Coastal waterM.Falkenmark March 09

Perlindungan Ekosistem

• WHY - fundamental roles in life support system

• WHAT - specific landscape component- ecosystem functioning/ resilience

”

• HOW - determinant identification- minimum requirement

integrated catchment management offers a way

/ IWRM


DAS sebagai dasar pengaturan

ILWRM untuk mengelola kompatibilitasland use – water use – ecosystem sustainability


Mengoptimalkan manfaat air hujan lokal

• Sumberdaya = rainfall : Air Hijau: Produksi tanaman pertanian tadah hujan Air biru: Kebutuhan domestik, Industri, Irigasi

-> make best use of local rain

• Kesiapan untuk: Pertumbuhan penduduk Pembangunan ekonomi Peningkatan Kesejahteraan Peningkatan kebutuhan pangan

= mengubah keseimbangan antar daerah

Memenuhi kekurangan air :

- irrigation - limited potential- rainfed - plenty of green

net deficiency: 3260 km3/yr/ 7 bln

- by import some 40 % - too poor to pay 60 %

-> horisontal expansion

- to where? not much grazing land unresolved 1270 km3/yr


Ketahanan Pangan = memerlukan banyak sekali air

Keseimbangan vs. Kelestarian Lingkungan

Keseimbangan :- Hulu – Hilir

- Air hijau – Air Biru - Manusia - Ekosistem

ILWRM = alat bantuKelestarian menjadi ”Kendala” yang

menentukan determinan sumberdaya air

Documents

AIR HIJAU & KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN smno.psdlub.2013