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Air Armament CenterAir Armament Center
Dr. L. Bruce SimpsonDirector308th Armament Systems [email protected]
War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Portfolio ResultsPortfolio ResultsIndustry Day Industry Day
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
2
War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Strategy for Seamless Transition
– Co-located key Personnel for Maximum Synergy
– Utilized “Best Practices” from the 3 Organizations
– Conducted Leadership Off-sites to Ensure Collaboration
– Initiated Feedback Loop for Group Workflow Managers
– Streamlined Administrative Processes
Air-to-GroundAir-to-Ground Air-to-Air
Air-to-AirCombat Support
Combat Support
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Acquisition Wing
308th ARSWDr. Bruce Simpson, CL
308th ARSWMr. John Batog, DV (Navy)
308th ARSWCol Michelle Miller Peck, DV
Technical DirectorMr. Christopher Clay
Chief Financial OfficerMs. Della McPhail
Chief of ContractingMr. Gary Williams
Chief of LogisticsMs. Margaret Villagran
675th ARSSJASSM Intrnat’l
690th ARSSOperation Spt
680th ARSSJDAM Intrnat’l
694th ARSSAMRAAM Intrna’l
671st ARSSWeaponeering
408th ARSGArmament Support
Mr. May, CL
678th ARSSJDAM
688th ARSSAgile Combat Spt
679th ARSSFuze
708th ARSGDirect Attack
Ms. Rutledge, CL
676th ARSSJASSM
683rd ARSSSFW
677th ARSSJASSM-ER
684th ARSS WCMD
692nd ARSS MALD
308th ARSGLong Range Systems
Col Griggs, CC
693rd ARSSLethal SEAD
696th ARSS AIM-120D
695th ARSS AIM-120C
Det 1Short Range Msl
328th ARSG Air DominanceCol Rumph, CC
728th ARSGTest and Training
Col Socha, CC
689th ARSS Range Inst Sys
672nd ARSS CRIIS
691st ARSS Aerial Targ Sys
808th ARSGAdvanced Programs
Mr. Rutledge, CL
685th ARSS Sys Interf & Integ
687th ARSS Adv Programs
686th ARSS Spc Prog/Proj
918th ARSG Miniature Munitions
Col Justice, CC
681st ARSS SDB Inc 1
682nd ARSSSDB Inc 2
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
308 ARSW Highlights
308 ARSGLong Range Attack
328 ARSGAir Dominance
408 ARSGArmament Support
708 ARSGDirect Attack
728 ARSGTest & Training
808 ARSGAdvanced Programs
918 ARSGMiniature Munitions
FLM– Transferred Technology from AFRL Mar 07
– Testing Successful
– Residuals in Warfighter Hands Early
ADS– Gov’t Acceptance Testing Ongoing
at Kirtland
– Ops Eval planned for April 08
– Transitioning to 808 ARSG May 08
P5 CTS– Pods Fielded at 10 of 25
Planned AF/Navy Bases
– Sortie Success Rate: 97.7%
– 40,956 Sorties Flown
LJDAM –CENTAF Urgent Operational Need
–Completing Ops Utility Evaluation
–On Track for April 08 fielding
Weaponeering– Developed & Published New
Collateral Damage Estimation Tables Used in OIF / OEF
– Release of JWS 2.0, 1st Qtr FY09
AMRAAM–AIM 120C7: Completed OT &
Fielding Proceeding Well
–AIM 120D: Developmental Testing Shots Underway
MALD–Completed
Developmental Testing
–Milestone C in 3rd Qtr FY08
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
GWOT Successes
– 2007: Delivered 34,377 Fuzes – 3,120 Combat Drops– Operational Reliability 98% (95% requirement)
Government / Industry Team Delivering Capability to the Warfighter
Over 28,000 Total Combat Drops OEF/OIF(JDAM, DSU-33, JPF, SDB, SFW, WCMD)
– 2007: Delivered 124,546 Units – 3,455 Combat Drops– Proven Ability to End Combat Engagements!
– 2007: Delivered 131,504 Units - 1180 Combat Drops
– 49 Total Combat Drops– ~40,000 Captive Flight Hours on F-15E
• JDAM
• JPF
• DSU-33
• SDB
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
GWOT Lessons Learned
Solving Present Day Challenges While Developing Capabilities to Fight and Win the Next Conflict
• Changing Face of War Causes Changes in How We Fly/Fight
– Increased Precision– Ability to Attack Moving Targets
– LJDAM: On Track for Fielding Apr 08
– Minimize Collateral Damage – FLM: Tested and Delivered 50 Assets to Warfighter 3 Months Early
– Dramatic Increase in Captive Carry Hours for Air-to-Ground Munitions
– SDB approx. 40,000 hours
• GWOT Has Presented Us With Challenges– Our Tactics Must Evolve as Our Enemy Adapts
– ADS: Non-lethal DE Weapon; Perimeter Protection-- Deters Advancing Adversary
– Advancements in Technology Required to Counter Increasingly Mobile Enemies Located in Dense Populations
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
AAC Portfolio MARs Performance
Ove
rall
Cos
t
Sch
edul
eP
erfo
rman
ceFu
ndin
g
Jan 07 62% GREEN28% YELLOW10% RED O
vera
ll
Cos
t
Sch
edul
e
Per
form
ance
Fund
ing
PoP
S
Jan 0875% GREEN12.5% YELLOW12.5% RED
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
– Disciplined Integrated Assessment Approach
– Sound Systems Engineering
– Realistic Planning
– Robust Risk Reduction
– Life Cycle Considerations Up Front
– Design for the “ilities”
– Relevant Capability
On Schedule, On Cost
– Customer/Requirement Focus
Acquisition Challenges
AcquisitionAcquisition
StrategyStrategy
High
Confidence
Source
Selection
High
Confidence
Source
Selection
Systems
Engineering
AssessmentSystems
Engineering
Assessment
Manufacturing
Readiness
Assessment
Manufacturing
Readiness
Assessment
Technology Readiness
Level / Technology
Readiness
Assessment
Technology Readiness
Level / Technology
Readiness
Assessment
Suffic
iency
Rev
iew
Suffic
iency
Rev
iew
Probability of Program
SuccessProbability of Program
Success
Cost Sufficiency ReviewCost Sufficiency Review
Integrated Assessment Process Leads to Higher Confidence Programs
Integrated Assessment Process Leads to Higher Confidence Programs
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Focus Areas
• Identify and Manage Risk
• Probability of Success
• Sufficiency Reviews
• Program Reviews
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
• Standard processes integral part of doing business
• Activity before Risk ID is standard work with defined solutions
• Expanding the suite of tools to ID and Analyze risk
PoPS
PMRs
Identify and Manage Risk
WBS
Risk Cube
SufficiencyReviews
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Probability of Program Success
Intent
• Agreed-to risk levels documented and recorded
• Don’t shoot messenger when program encounters problems
• Predictive metrics can identify watch areas to a PM before problem erupts
• Better prediction of future issues
• Ability to look at scoring trends over time
2007 Probability of Program Success
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Program Take Aways
• Beginning to institutionalize
• Windshield chart affects decisions on resources
• Trend of red to green as mitigation plans implemented
• Synergy generated by effective assessments
• Audits since June raising confidence
• Focused program priorities
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Sufficiency Reviews
Investment
• 22 reviews in 2007
• Program reviewed by about 40 senior and experienced experts
• Approx 5000 man hours in reviews
Issues Identified
• Cost risk in planning for averages
• Need specific exit criteria
• Test schedule and resources
• Sustainment planning
• Production phasing
• Leadership awareness of resource requirements
Benefits
• Realistic planning early
• Instills discipline
• Encourages communication between functionals
• Forums for exchanging best practices
• Gives team a clear vector
• More efficient ASP—Establishes baseline
“Plans are nothing; planning is everything” Dwight D. Eisenhower
O N D J F M A M J J A SO N D J F M A M J J A S
AIR-TO-AIR PROGRAMS
AIR-TO-GROUND PROGRAMSNotes
COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAMS
NEW CONCEPT PROGRAMS
AAC Totals 3 1 4 3 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 2 22
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Integrating Program and Cost Risk
• Integrate “risk cube” and PoPS into cost estimate
• Dependencies between WBS elements
• Specific risks determine funding for confidence• Monte Carlo simulation• Better risk ID and modeling
$
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
PMR “Deep Dives”
• Conducted by Wing Director/SPDs—1 per Wk• Each Program Reviewed Every 12 Weeks• Program Manager’s Format • Areas Reviewed: Schedule, Financials, Risks,
PoPS Action Plans• Raises leadership awareness—addresses
PMs needs• Foundation for Advising PEO
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War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Industry’s RoleIndustry’s Role
• Robust Systems Engineering
• Vendor and Supplier Management
• Reliable, Quality Products
• Cost and Schedule Realism
16
War-Winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Summary
• Trends Moving in the Right Direction
• Implementing Processes for Continuous Improvement
Our GoalWith Higher Confidence Provide
War-Winning Capabilities. . .On Time. . .On Cost