AI in the Energy Sector – moving from innovation to

AI in the Energy Sector –moving from innovation to business as usual

Chris Harrison

30th January 2019

Data Scientist

What is a Catapult?

Technical capabilities, equipment, and other

resources

Solve key problems and develop new products

and services

Bridge the gap between stakeholders

in the sector

Open up opportunities for

innovators, in the UK and globally

Established and overseen by Innovate UK

© 2019 Energy Systems Catapult 2

What is Energy Systems Catapult?

© 2019 Energy Systems Catapult 3

Mission: Unleash innovation and open new markets to capture the clean growth opportunity

A place to develop and test new ideasA place to develop and test new ideas

Research

Digital

Supporting innovators

Systems engineering

Modelling and simulation

Trials

Bridge the gap between stakeholders in the sector

Established and overseen by Innovate UK. Independent from Government. Not for profit

Hubs in Birmingham and Derby

Innovation experts

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© 2018 Energy Systems Catapult

Data Landscape and Challenges

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Energy Data Review (Landscape)

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• Data and digitalisation should facilitate the change to a low carbon, consumer-centric, energy system.

• Innovators needed to develop and test new technical and business solutions to create opportunities but restricted opaque data landscape.

Aim of Energy Data Review is to “establish baseline reference data landscape for the GB energy sector … can be used by innovators to inform, validate and refine business models that support the transformation to a future digital energy system”


Data Landscape Recommendations

1. Incentivise Consumers to share their data (reduced cost, enhanced utility, improved experience).

2. Increase simplicity, transparency and protections to improve consumer willingness to share data.

3. Develop strong leaders to initiate and enforce wider data sharing.

4. Develop data standards and interoperability frameworks to enable greater exchange of data.

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A Strategy for a Modern DigitalisedEnergy System

• In October 2018 the Energy Data Taskforce was established to provide Government, Ofgem and Industry with a set of recommendations on how data can assist with unlocking the opportunities provided by a modern, decarbonised and decentralised Energy System at the best value to consumers.

• In June 2019 the Energy Data Taskforce published a report entitled

A Strategy for a Modern Digitalised Energy System

Commissioned by:

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which presents five key recommendations that will modernise the UK energy system and drive it towards a net zero carbon future through an integrated data and digital strategy throughout the sector.


Energy Data Task Force

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Bu

ildin

g

Blo

cks

Data Catalogue Asset Registration Strategy Digital System Map

Presumed Open

Discoverable, Searchable,

Understandable

Structures, Interfaces and

Standards

Secure and Resilient

Pri

nci

ple

s

A Modern, Digitalised Energy System

Delivering better outcomes for consumers via superior utilisation of assets, greater price discovery and opportunity to attract new productive assets to the system.

Ou

tco

mes

Go

al

Filling in the gaps Maximising the value

Digitalisation of the Energy System

New Data NeedsContinuous

ImprovementDigitalisation

Strategies

1 2

3 4 5


Triaging Openness

Public Data

Shared Data

Closed Data

Anonymise, aggregate, redact or add noise to Data*

Datasets

Can risk be reduced via limiting terms and

conditions?

Can risk be reduced if shared with a limited group or licence restrictions?

Can limiting audience or imposing licence

restrictions reduce commercial risk?

Yes

Security Issue Privacy IssueConsumer

Impact IssueCommerciality

Issue

Would the data set be less sensitive but retain its value after anonymisation / redaction?

Yes

Yes

Yes

Open Data

*Multiple stages of anonymisation / redaction may be required to address different issues (e.g. privacy and security) but repeated application should be limited

Presumed Open

Do

cum

en

tati

on

of

op

en

ness

tri

ag

e –

issu

es

an

d m

itig

ati

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s


Initial Success

• Digitalisation of the Energy System Digitalisation Strategies Network Innovation Alloance projects

• Maximising the Value of Data Elexon – BSC code mod to implement presumed open UNC – Code mod to allow research access to data Western Power Distribution – Presumed Open Data project (ESC is partner) National Grid Electricity System Operator – Open Data Portal

• Data Catalogue Office for National Statistics have been appointed as discovery partner

• Asset Registration BEIS are leading a series of workshops to develop the strategy

• Digital System Map Energy Networks Association have created digital working group are leading the development

activities

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Case Study: Home Heating

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Challenge of decarbonising heat is significant

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of homes have low carbon heating today

of homes have low carbon heating today

prefer gas central heating given the choice

prefer gas central heating given the choice


Living Lab: testing new products, services and business models in 100 real homes

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Four million data points per home per day

Understanding consumer preferences

Testing heat-as-a-service conceptsReal world homes


People heat their homes in very different ways

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People heat their homes in very different ways

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Hate feeling cold, but dislike ‘waste’, so turn heat up high when needed

On-Demand Sizzlers

Often tweak heating as worried about bills and trying to minimise costs

Cool Conservers

Rarely adjust their heating schedule

Steady and Savvy

Want home warm when someone is in, but not that bothered about heating. Could afford to leave it on all day, but prefer to spend the money on something else.

On-off Switchers

Often adjust temperature to get comfortable

Hot and Cold Fluctuators

Love having a cosy home and would prefer not to put on a jumper if they are cold

Toasty Cruisers


Providing people with more information about heating costs

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Heat Plans: a starter-for-ten energy service

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Pence per warm hourLike “mpg” for heatingPence per warm hourLike “mpg” for heating

Warm hours Hours any room is warmWarm hours Hours any room is warm

ScheduleTemperature of rooms at any time

ScheduleTemperature of rooms at any time

ExtrasCost of warmth outside the schedule

ExtrasCost of warmth outside the schedule


Understanding risk

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Question-naireData

Sensordata

Model of behaviour and profit

Risk profile Clustering Risk groups

Classification

Interpretation


Risk profiles – Pay as you go

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Senor data - Indicator of group

- Average number of Warm Hours- Standard deviation of gas usage- Average gas usage- Standard deviation of the number of

Warm Hours


Risk profiles – Classification from questionnaire data

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Classification using top features

OOB = 0.7692

Questionnaire - Indicator of group

- What kind of house do you live in?

- How many gas (central heating) radiators are in your property?

- What kind of house do you live in?- What is the insulation quality of your

hallways and landings?- How often do you leave doors to your

hallways and landings open?- How often do you leave the doors to your

living room open?


Challenges

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People are very different and have many different behaviours and don’t necessarily respond how you would expect.

Large number of sensors required as well as other data sources (weather).

Modelling is complex and is sensitive to various behaviours (e.g. open doors/windows).

Large amounts of data. Is it feasible to upscale to whole of UK? How much to collect and store? What resolution?

Requires good communications network and compatibility between devices.

More trials required and of these data needs to be shared to develop and test a wide variety of models.

Many consumer centric solutions (demand side response, demand side management) will face similar problems!


Living Lab 2.0 evolution

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Owners, Social,Fuel Poor, Landlords

Energy Services

Interoperable

CommercialProducts

Route to Market

Living Lab 2.0

Consumers

Multi-technology

Heat, hot water, EVs, PVsmart meters, storage

Scalable to 1,000’s

Chris Harrison

[email protected]

Documents

AI in the Energy Sector – moving from innovation to