Agriculture – Global, Agriculture – Global, Regional and National Regional and National Issues in PerspectiveIssues in Perspective

Mangala RaiPresident

National Academy of Agricultural SciencesNew Delhi, India

• First World Food Summit promised to “eradicate world hunger within a decade”.

• Since then, 3 World Food Summits held and resolved to reduce world hunger only to half by 2015.

• Different scenarios depict 2.3% to 3.3% global economic growth and population varying from 8.1 to 14.0 billion in 2080.

Where We Stand ?

People at risk of hunger, baseline projection

REF-01 Million

2000 2010 2020 2030 2050

Africa 198 253 289 319 326

Asia, East 172 142 111 80 35

Asia, South 359 361 303 219 72

Latin America

58 61 55 51 30

Middle East & N. Africa

43 50 49 50 39

Rest of World 53 51 47 46 33

World 884 918 854 765 536

Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of cereals on current rainfed cultivated

land, HadCM3 A2, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s

Source: Fischer et al., 2008.

Current climate HadCM3 A2 2020s HadCM3 A2 2050s HadCM3 A2 2080sArea Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield

mln ha mln tons t/ha % change % change % change

Northern Africa 8 43 5.3 -1 3 4 -6 -7 -1 -23 -28 -6Western Asia 19 93 5.0 -1 2 3 -2 1 2 -5 -7 -2Central Asia 11 34 3.1 -2 13 15 -15 9 27 -28 -11 24

Developed 446 2586 5.8 2 2 0 3 3 0 1 -1 -1Developing 559 3529 6.3 0 2 2 -1 2 3 -6 -5 2

World 1004 6116 6.1 1 2 1 0 2 2 -3 -3 0

Note: Results include CO2 fertilization and assume rational adaptation and transfer of crop types and selection of best crop.

Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of

cereals on rainfed cultivated land, HadCM3 A2 2080s

Source: Fischer et al., 2008.

Current climate Adaptation 1 Adaptation 1 + CO2 fert. Adaptation 2 + CO2 fert.Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield

mln ha mln tons t/ha % change % change % change

Northern Africa 7 56 8.5 -23 -35 -15 -23 -30 -8 -23 -28 -6Western Asia 4 34 8.4 -7 -15 -9 -7 -8 -1 -5 -7 -2Central Asia 0 1 8.0 -24 -14 13 -24 -8 22 -28 -11 24

Developed 55 434 7.9 0 -9 -10 1 -1 -2 1 -1 -1Developing 197 1614 8.2 -10 -18 -10 -10 -13 -4 -6 -5 2

World 252 2048 8.1 -5 -14 -10 -5 -8 -3 -3 -3 0

Note:Adaptation 1: Assumes adaptation with local varieties only but choice of most productive cereal crop.Adaptation 1 + CO2: Includes CO2 fertilization and assumes adaptation with local varieties only but choice of most productive cereal crop.Adaptation 2 + CO2 Includes CO2 fertilization and adaptation with best suited variety and choice of most productive cereal crop.

Economic Impacts of Climate Change

Hadley A1F1 Scenario 2080 % Ag GDP % Cereal

ProductionWorld -1.5 -1.4Developed -0.5 2.8North America 7.5 1.3Europe -14.7 -3.4

Developing -1.9 -3.9

Africa -4.9 -0.6

Latin America 3.7 15.9Asia -4.3 -8.6

World Market prices( % change from Ref Scenario)

Cereals : 19.5% All crops : 10.5%

Agriculture Spending to Total Spending by Developing Country Governments

Year Africa Asia Latin America

1980 6.4 15.0 8.0

2002 4.5 5.6 2.5

(in %)

Country Background

Pressure on land indicated by ratio of agricultural workers to arable land

Agriculture workers/100 ha. of arable land

Country 1989-90 2003-04 Afghanistan 52 67 Bangladesh 361 495 Bhutan

India 141 172 Maldives

Nepal 366 473 Pakistan 77 79 Sri Lanka 270 260

Source : FAO database.

Trend in Food InflationYear on Year (%) Change

Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Bangladesh 2.6 1.4 1.6 3.5 6.9 7.9 7.7 8.2 12.3

Bhutan* 4.0 3.4 2.5 2.6 4.2 5.3 5.0 5.2 8.4

India 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.4 2.8 3.3 7.6 9.3 14.1

Maldives* -1.2 0.7 0.9 -2.9 6.4 1.6 3.5 7.4 12.3

Nepal 0.4 -2.3 3.7 4.4 3.3 4.0 7.8 7.2 10.1

Pakistan 2.2 3.6 2.5 2.8 6.0 12.5 6.9 10.3 17.7

Sri Lanka 4.5 15.2 10.6 2.6 9.1 11.4 8.9 20.3 30.5

* Consumer price inflationSource: ADB

Food inflation started rising from 2004. Reached double digit during 2008. It is continuing to remain high even during 2009.

Projected impacts of climate change

Increasing temperature would increase fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; and result in higher emissions

Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.

Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock

These emissions are largely from the industrialized countries as is evident from the per capita emission of greenhouse gases of different

regions

Europe

Africa

Japan, Australia and New zealand

South AsiaEast Asia

USA and Canada

Latin AmericaMiddle East

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How can we Reduce Emission of Greenhouse Gases from Agriculture?

Improve management of water and fertilizers in rice paddies; use nitrification inhibitors, fertilizer placement/schedules

Improve management of livestock population and its diet Increase soil carbon: minimal tillage, residue management Improve energy use efficiency in agriculture: better designs

of machinery, and by conservation practices Change land use: increasing area under biofuels, agro-

forestry - but trade-off with food production.

Investments in adaptation research capacity: varieties, land use systems, resource conservation technologies, pest surveillance

Changes in policies e.g. incentives for conservation of carbon, water, and energy; and use efficiency, pricing of resources

Investments in infrastructure for water management Greater insurance coverage for the farm Improved communication of climate changes and options to adapt

to them Creating alternate livelihood options and reducing dependence on

agriculture

How to adapt Agriculture to Climate Change?

Enhance Research Capacity and International Collaboration

Development of climate responsive crops and land use systems

Seasonal weather forecasts Regionally differentiated contingency plans for increased

risk management Reexamine water and fertilizer management with added

dimension of reducing GHG emissions. Determine optimal size of livestock population considering

milk requirement, diet, greenhouse gas emissions, and social issues.

Development of decision support systems for policy guidance

Establish an Agricultural Intelligence System for impact of weather and inputs on production of important commodities at national as well as international level.

Increase pest surveillance Explore feasibility of establishing feed, fodder, and seed

banks Increase farm insurance coverage using weather derivatives Enhance climate literacy

Strengthen Institutions

Major Challenges in Agriculture  Raise and sustain agriculture growthRaise and sustain agriculture growth Enhance income and employmentEnhance income and employment Ensure food and nutrition securityEnsure food and nutrition security Adapt to climate changeAdapt to climate change Adjust to changes in energy scenarioAdjust to changes in energy scenario Maintain bio safety and bio securityMaintain bio safety and bio security Make sustainable use of natural resourcesMake sustainable use of natural resources Protect bio-diversityProtect bio-diversity Adjust to global shocksAdjust to global shocks

New Opportunities

Biotechnology and Nanotechnology opens new vistasBiotechnology and Nanotechnology opens new vistas Renewed emphasis on agriculture likely to turn the Renewed emphasis on agriculture likely to turn the

environment favourableenvironment favourable Trend towards Bios:Trend towards Bios:

Bio pesticide, bio sensors, bio remediation, bio molecules, Bio pesticide, bio sensors, bio remediation, bio molecules, bio medicine, bio cosmeticsbio medicine, bio cosmetics

New Commerce and trade: Food chain, processing, value New Commerce and trade: Food chain, processing, value additionaddition

Regional cooperation in pest management, technology Regional cooperation in pest management, technology generation, adoption, human resource developmentgeneration, adoption, human resource development

Green Revolution to Gene Revolution

Rate of Gain in Ag. Productivity is Declining

Developing countries

World Developed countries

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1967–19821982–1994

1995–2020

Why Transgenics ?

Why Transgenics?

• More food• Better quality food

• Safer food• Healthier foods• Designer foods

Why Transgenics ?

Microbes are the Factory of Metabolic Products

• Amino acids• Nucleotides• Vitamins• Solvents• Organic acids

Hypocholesterolemic agents Enzyme inhibitors Immunosuppressants

Biopesticides. MicroherbicidesPlant growth promoters and disease

suppressorBiocontrol agents Biofertilizers

Millions tons are produced each year with a total

multibilliondollar market

Markets of over 50 billion

dollars per year.

Markets of over 700 billion

dollars per year.

CA Systems: Rely on Multi-Disciplinary Efforts

Good CA-based Implements

(Ag Engineering)

Efficient Genotypes Efficient Genotypes (Breeding/Physiology/Protection)(Breeding/Physiology/Protection)

Good Crop Management Good Crop Management

(Agronomy/Soils)(Agronomy/Soils)

Profitable Profitable CA based CA based

technologies technologies that Farmers can that Farmers can

Adopt and UseAdopt and Use

• Hybrid culture in Agriculture• Transgenic culture in Agriculture• Water productivity enhancement and

multiple use of water• Input use efficiency enhancement• Increasing precision in agriculture• Enhanced protected cultivation• Biosensors, Biofuels, Biomolecules,

Biofortification, Biosafety, Biosecurity, Bioremediation, Biofertilization

• IT-based decision support systems for technology transfer

• Processing, storage and loss reduction• Capacity building

Generic areas for priority attention

• Making land and water resources development and utilization economically viable

• Enforcing environmental laws to control water pollution, land degradation and erosion

• Providing adequate public funds for conducting frontier research

• Mass movement and large-scale people’s participation in development, supply and utilization of water and land resources at all levels

Generic areas for priority attention contd..

Enhance investment in irrigation infrastructure, and efficient water use technologies.

Develop policy framework for greater adoption of scientific pricing policies for water, land, energy, and other resources.

Consider financial incentives for improved land management, e.g. resource conservation/ enhancement (water, carbon).

Consider incentives to industry and farmers for reducing emissions such as for neem coated urea

Explore international partnerships for joint research and technology development

Generic areas for priority attention contd..

Thanks