Aging and labour markets in G20 countries

International Labour Organization

G20 Framework Working Group

1st meeting, 6-7 March 2019

08/03/2019

A1. The labour force is growing older

Average age of the labour force, 1990-2030 (projections for 2018 and beyond)

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

World Africa Americas Arab States Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia

Source: ILOSTAT, ILO Labour Force Estimates and Projections

A2. Older people are becoming more economically active

Source: ILOSTAT, ILO Labour Force Estimates and Projections

-15.5

-6-4.6

0.2

6.9

2

-16.3

-1.8 -0.5 -0.2

3.1

-1.5

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Perc

enta

ge p

oin

ts

Age groups

Female Male

Change in labour force participation rates in the G20, by sex and age groups, 1998 and 2018

A3. Labour force participation is declining significantly in G20 emerging economies

60.4

59.959.3

66.8

62.5

60.4

65.1

61.8

6…

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

G20 G20 advanced G20 Emerging

Source: ILO Modelled Estimates, November 2018. Figures for 2018 are preliminary, 2019-2021 are projections. Age group 15+ years.

Youth (15-24) LFPR % Old-age (65+) LFPR %

Source: ILO Modelled Estimates, November 2018. Figures for 2018 are preliminary, 2019-2021 are projections.

50.5

58.3

65.5

55.556.7

57.0

50

55

60

65

70

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

G20 advanced G20 Emerging

50.5

45.8 45.5

53.7

43.8

37.6

35

40

45

50

55

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

G20 advanced G20 Emerging

A4. Opposing trends for youth and older workers

-30%

+7%

Source: ILO Modelled Estimates, November 2018. Age group 15+ years.

A5. Gender gaps remain

Male vs female labour force participation rates, %

Source: ILO Modelled Estimates, November 2018. Age group 15+ years.

B1. G20 labour market snapshot

B2. Uneven (old-age) social protection coverage

Sources: ILO estimates based on nation data compiled through Social Security Inquiry questionnaire 2016-2018, ILOSTAT, OECD SOCR and UNWPP. Estimated averages are weighted by population above statutory pension age and labour force respectively. G20 Emerging doe not include Saudi Arabia.

94.8

73.3

47.2

93.6

50.2

25.7

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

G20 Advanced G20 Emerging G20 Emerging (without China)

%

Proportion of population above statutory pensionable age receiving a pension, %

Proportion of active contributors to a pension scheme in the labour force, %

2017 or latest

B3. Unemployment is stabilizing

Source: ILO Modelled Estimates, November 2018. Figures for 2018 are preliminary, 2019-2020 are projections. Age group 15+ years.

5.25.6

4.9

6.7

8.6

5.2

4.8 4.7 4.8

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

G20 G20 advanced G20 Emerging

G20 unemployment rates %

B4. Growing concern for youth

Youth (15 to 24) unemployment rate %

Source: ILO Modelled Estimates, November 2018. Figures for 2018 are preliminary, 2019-2020 are projections. Age group 15-24 years.

11.2

12.613.0

13.5

18.0

10.9

10.711.5

13.6

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

G20 G20 advanced G20 Emerging

B.5 Fragmented working lives of younger people

Education Work RetirementAge 0 Age 20 Age 60

Three-stage model

Self-employment

Training

Education

Employment in an organization

Mix of paid work and unpaid work

Retirement

Flexible work

Volunteer

Multistage life

B6. Weak wage dynamics

Source: ILO estimates based on official national sources as recorded in the ILO Global Wage Database. Figures for 2018 are preliminary.

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Adjusted Labour Income Share(1990-2014, %)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

G20 advanced G20 emerging G20

Annual average real wage growth(2007-2018, %)

• Longer working lives (activation, flexible work arrangements, IT)

• Sustained employment rates• Full employment path• Skills and jobs for youth• Gender and non-discrimination • New job opportunities in the silver economy (long-term care work)

• Higher numbers of active contributors• Transition out of informality• Ensure people in non-standard forms of employment and in labour market

transitions do enjoy proper social protection coverage

• Stronger and more sustainable social protection systems• Efficiency and equity• Macroeconomic role as automatic stabilizer

C1. Policy issues

EWG