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Aggregator Perspectiveon Carbon Credits
Presented byAgraGate Climate Credits Corp
David Miller, Chief Science OfficerJuly 18, 2007
Items to be Covered
• Current opportunities in US carbon credit markets
• Carbon market expectations
• Dealing with uncertainty in agricultural carbon credits
• Characteristics of cost-effective aggregation programs
Carbon Credit Program
Greenhouse GasEmission Reductions
Carbon Credit Program
• Eligibility Assessment • Protocol Development• Monitoring• Reporting• Verification• Registration
Carbon Credits(certified, tradable, $$)
Chicago ClimateExchange protocols
Achieved viaqualifying GHGemission reduction projects
Sell on CCX through an aggregator
CCX Reduction Timetable
• 2003-2006: Reduce emissions to 1%, 2%, 3%, 4% below 1998-
2001 baseline
• 2006 – 2010: Reduce emissions to 6% below 98-01 baseline
CCX Emission Reduction Schedule
92%93%94%95%96%97%98%99%
100%
1998-2001
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Meeting CCX Reductions
• Allowances (x% less than baseline)
• Own reductions • Industry credits
from excess reductions
• Offsets (no more than 50% of reduction requirement)
• Soil Offsets• No-till• New Grass• Rangeland
• Forestry• New Plantings• Enhanced Working Forest
• Ag Methane• Industrial Fuel
Switching• Biofuels• Landfill Methane
Carbon Offset Prices2004 - 2006
2006 Vintage Carbon Offset Prices
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
$ P
er
Metr
ic T
on
Price forecasts for US carbon credits
Figure 1. Projected price curves for US carbon credits ($US per metric ton).
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
hi
low
med
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
hi
low
med
Sources: Carbon Finance, August 2004; EIA/DOE 2004. Analysis of S. 1844, the Clear Skies Act of 2003; S. 843, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003; and S. 366, the Clean Power Act of 2003. Energy Information Administration, USDOE, SR/OIAF/2004-05, May 2004; EIA/DOE 2005. Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy. Energy Information Administration, USDOE, SR/OIAF/2005-02, April 2005; AEP 2004. An assessment of AEP’s actions to mitigate the economic impacts of emissions policies. American Electric Power, August 31 2004
Carbon Sequestration• Carbon sequestration can be defined as
the capture and secure storage of carbon that would otherwise be emitted to or remain in the atmosphere.
• What are Carbon Credits?– Carbon credits encompass two ideas:
(1) Prevention/reduction of carbon emissions produced by human activities from reaching the atmosphere by capturing and diverting them to secure storage.(2) Removal of carbon from the atmosphere by various means and securely storing it.
SOIL CARBON DYNAMICS SOIL CARBON DYNAMICS IN RESPONSE TO TILLAGEIN RESPONSE TO TILLAGE
SOIL CARBON (% OF ORIGINIAL) IN RESPONSE TO CULTIVATION
1 50
SO
IL
CA
RB
ON
0
100
PLOWING
PERENNIAL VEGETATION
years
CONSERVATION TILLAGE
50
Soil Offset Credit Zones
No-till Credit Rates (Metric Tons CO2/Acre/Year)
CCX Zone
Dryland
Other
A 0.60
B, E, G &
LRR(K)
0.40
LRR-G & HIrrigated
0.60
C 0.32
MLRA 52, 53A, 54
Chem Fallow
0.32/0.00
D & F 0.20
LRR-G & HIrrigated
0.60
Tillage Equipment
• Full width inversion– Moldboard plow– Chisel plow– Field cultivator– Tandem disk– Offset disk– Row crop cultivator
• Okay to use– No-till/strip-till planter– No-till drill– Rolling harrow– Tools with wide knives
• Subsoiler/ripper • Anhydrous applicator• Manure knife applicator
• General Guideline: After the implement has been through the field, there must still be a substantial amount of surface residue present and the soil disturbance must not be full width. If use of the implement would require that a leveling or smoothing activity follow, it would probably result in too much soil disturbance.
• No credits earned during year if residue is removed or burned
Dealing with Uncertainty
• What is the goal?– Assurance of a minimum amount?– Minimization of variation around the mean?
• Two approaches– Pooling with discount– Specific plot measurement
Pooling with Discount
• Define eligible practices
• Set rates for geographic areas– Peer-reviewed literature– Long-term studies (Reference sites)
• Apply discounts from the mean rate– Cumulative probability distribution function
• Law of large numbers
Specific Site Measurement
• Illusion of accuracy– Sampling error– Sampling bias
• If aggregated, pool average will match true mean
• Does not change carbon being sequestered
Cost-effective Aggregation
• Standardized contracts
• Easy to understand forms & reports
• Common, established practices in similar geographic areas
• Reference sites with long-term data sets
• Self certification with random spot checks
• Penalties for dishonesty or fraud
• Low transaction and verification costs
Contact Information
David MillerChief Science Officer
AgraGate Climate Credits Corp.5400 University Ave
West Des Moines, IA 50266
www.AgraGate.comPh: 515-225-5431
E-mail: [email protected]