African Training DeskNational Centers for Environmental Predictions

Staff

Wassila M. Thiaw, Team Leader

Vadlamani Kumar

Endalkachew Bekele

Visitors from NMHSs

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Training Coverage

African DeskNCEP International Desks

Week1 PrecipitationProbability of exceedance

Mission:• Support capacity building at NMHSs in Africa: Professional development training in weather and climate and product exchange

• Provide access to NCEP global data and products to promote decision support services in developing countries: Africa, Afghanistan, Central America

New Website

Africa Hazards

Overview

• African Training Desk established in 1994 – WMO/VCP– Climate Training Desk – Support to WMO/ CLIPS– Weather Training Desk – Support to WMO/ SWFDP

• Evolved to focus on DSS:USAID/ FEWSNET & OFDA, USDA Foreign Ag Service, and WMO– Africa, central America, the Caribbean, and Afghanistan– Real time monitoring for humanitarian assistance– Food security– Disaster Risk Reduction– Health Early Warning System

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• Provides an opportunity for professional meteorologists in Africa to train at NCEP on operational weather and climate forecasting as part of the US contributions to the WMO VCP

• Operates a Climate Desk and a Weather Forecasting Desk. Each desk has the capacity to host 6 meteorologists per year arriving at staggered intervals of 2 months for a total of 12.

• NWS provides a 4-month WMO/VCP fellowship

• Training is hands-on in an operational setting with an instructor to monitor daily activities and progress

Concept of NCEP African Desk

• Objective is to help strengthen the capacities of the NMHSs in weather and climate forecasting

• Focus on the operational use and application of numerical model products, climate forecasting and monitoring tools

• All fellows must submit a WMO VCP application form to WMO and NWS to be considered

Concept of NCEP African Desk

African Training Desk

• Partnership– National Weather Service International Activities– WMO– African NMHSs– African regional institutions

• Resources– NCEP – base– WMO VCP– USAID

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Weather Desk Training Curriculum

• NAWIPS• Use and interpretation of NWP• Use of ensembles in operational weather

forecasting• Write forecast bulletins• GIS applications• Week-1 forecasts• Access and process large data• Conduct model verification studies• WRF modeling

Visitor’Projects

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Khalid Muwembe, Uganda Met Service

Guy Razafindrakoto, Madagascar Met Service

International Program web Interface

NCEP NWP Products

CPC/International Desk

Spaghetti diagram, for 5700 and 5780gpm isolines of 500mb

Probability of 10m wind, exceeding 10kts

Probability of daily rainfall, exceeding 10mm

NCEP NWP Products

GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance

Ensemble Mean Ensemble Spread

Ensemble Products, GEFS, 24 to 72-hr rainfall Forecasts

Day 1, Aug. 31, 2009

Day 2, Sep. 1, 2009

Day 3, Seo. 2, 2009

Deterministic Probabilistic , 30mm/day thresholdDeterministic Vs. probabilistic Forecast, GFS VS GEFS

Day 1, Aug. 31, 2009

Day 2, Sep. 1, 2009

Day 3, Seo. 2, 2009

African Desk Forecast Guidance for Africa

Surface and Column Parameters

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Daily QPF

Probability of Pexceedance

Rainfall anomalyLast 7 days

Grid Box P daily evolution - last 90 days

Real Time Access to Products

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/

2. Current StatusReal Time Monitoring

7 days 30 days

180 days 90 days

Daily Evolution

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Collect points, andother relevant data

and convert to apoint shapefile

GFS Forecasts

JTWC and NWSOfficial Tracking

Points

TRMM Data

Sum up forduration of cyclone

and convert intoA GIS raster

Send all to awindows platformand merge into a

graphic

Email graphic tointerested partiesand send to web

CPC Global Tropical Alert System

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Automatic Tracking of Global TC Development

TC Hina, 23 Feb 2009South Central Indian Ocean

TC Gael, 2-11 Feb 2009Southwestern Indian Ocean

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WRF Modeling Experiments for Africa

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/wrf_fcst/safrica/

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Some output of the wrf model

• Wrf forecast valid 0600z and 0900z, 17/10/2008 and data time 0000z 16/10/2008 (i.e. the model run was of 0000z of 16/10/2008)

• The actual observations were as shown on the next slide

WRF EMS – Tanzania Experience

Courtesy, P. Mlonganile, TMA

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Lake Forecast (Nested)

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data time is 0000z, 18/10/2008. For the forecast starting after 0600z on 18/10/2008 to 0900z, 19/10/1008.

Compare with the observations to the next slide Courtesy, P. Mlonganile, TMA

Future Plan

• Work with other NOAA agencies to expand the African Training Desk; e.g., aviation weather & marine forecasting

• Conduct field visits in the form of workshops for former African Desk trainees

• Continue to work with sister agencies within the US government to improve DSS and early warning systems