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AFN In Transition, 2000-2010. Where we are… How we have changed… Where we will be…. A preliminary report compiled by the Institute for Social and Economic Research. Where we are… A Snapshot of Alaska Natives in 2000. Relatively young population facing unique challenges and change - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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AFN In Transition, 2000-2010AFN In Transition, 2000-2010
•Where we are…
•How we have changed…
•Where we will be…
A preliminary report compiled by the Institute for Social and Economic Research
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we are…Where we are…
A Snapshot of Alaska Natives in 2000
• Relatively young population facing unique challenges and change
• Large regional differences in demographic composition and patterns of change
• Roughly equal distribution of male and female Native Alaskans
• Large share of Alaska Natives live outside of Alaska
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we are…Where we are…
A Snapshot of Alaska Natives in 2000
2000 Race /Ethnicity Question – select all appropriate ethnic backgrounds2000 Race /Ethnicity Question – select all appropriate ethnic backgrounds
6. What is this person's race? Mark [X] one or more races to indicate what this person considers himself/herself to be.O WhiteO Black, African Am., or NegroO American Indian or Alaska Native - Print name of enrolled or principal tribe._________________________O Asian IndianO ChineseO FilipinoO JapaneseO KoreanO VietnameseO Other Asian - Print race.___________________________O Native HawaiianO Guamanian or ChamorroO SamoanO Other Pacific Islander - Print race._____________________________O Some other race - Print race._____________________________
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we are …Where we are …
2000 Population Overview
49,162 10,748
48,791 10,540
97,953 21,288
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
Male (59,910)
Female (59,331)
Total (119,241)
Alaska Native and American Indian Population Living in Alaska (under two definitions), 2000
AK NATIVE OR AMERICAN INDIAN AS SOLE ETHNIC BACKGROUND
AK NATIVE OR AMERICAN INDIAN IN ADDITION TO OTHER ETHNIC BACKGROUND(S)
Source: US Census 2000 SF-2
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we are…Where we are…
A Snapshot of Alaska Natives in 2000
1990 Race /Ethnicity Question – self-select a single ethnicity1990 Race /Ethnicity Question – self-select a single ethnicity
4. RaceFill ONE circle for the race that the person considers himself/herself to be. If Indian (Amer.), print the name of the
enrolled or principal tribe. If Other Asian or Pacific Islander (API), print one group, for example: Hmong, Fijian, Laotian, Thai, Tongan, Pakistani, Cambodian, and so on. If Other race, print race.
O WhiteO Black or NegroO Indian (Amer.) (Print the name of the enrolled or principal tribe.)_________________________O EskimoO AleutAsian or Pacific Islander (API)O Chinese O JapaneseO Filipino O Asian IndianO Hawaiian O SamoanO Korean O GuamanianO Vietnamese O Other API ↓____________________O Other race (Print race)_________________________
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
76,825
108,632
85,698
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
ANAI not reportingother ancestry
ANAI in addition toother ancestry
ANAI - Self-selected primary
race
Similar Race Category Responses, 1990
Source: US Census 1990 (SF2 and PUMS); ISER Preliminary estimates
Where we are…Where we are…
A Snapshot of Alaska Natives in 2000
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we are …Where we are …
2000 Population Overview: by region
Source: ISER
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we are …Where we are …
2000 Population Overview: by region
18908
14193
28400
41387
16353
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
NORTH INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
SOUTH SOUTH EAST
Regional Distribution of Alaska Native Population, 2000
Source: ISER; US Census, (2000 ANAI with one or more ethnicity)
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we are …Where we are …
2000 Population Overview: by region
Regional Distribution of Alaska Native Population, 2000
16%
12%
24%
34%
14%NORTH
INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST
SOUTH
SOUTHEAST
Source: ISER; US Census, (2000 ANAI with one or more ethnicity)
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we are …Where we are …
2000 Population Overview: by age
Alaska Native Population by Age and Region, 2000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Age
SE
South
SW
Interior
North
Source: ISER; US Census, (2000 Native with one or more ethnicity)
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we are …Where we are …
2000 Population Overview: by age
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
North Interior SW South SE State
Share of Regional Native Population by Young, Middle-Aged, and Elders, 2000
0-14 15-64 65+Source: ISER; US Census
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we are …Where we are …
2000 Population Overview: by age
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Age Distribution of ANAI Population, 2000
ANAI single ethnicity ANAI ancestry in addition to one or more ethnic backgrounds
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we are …Where we are …
Alaska Natives Living Abroad
Reported Alaska Native Tribal Affiliation by State, 2000 census*
0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 22,500 25,000
Alaskan Athabascan (18,838)
Tlingit-Haida (22,365)
Tsimshian (3,360)
Sealaska (524)
Eskimo Tribes (9,820)
Inupiat Eskimo (19,365)
Siberian Eskimo (1,430)
Cupiks Eskimo (68)
Yup’ik (24,237)
Aleut (10,548)
Alutiiq Aleut (389)
Bristol Bay Aleut (684)
Chugach Aleut (427)
Eyak (552)
Koniag Aleut (1,800)
Unangan Aleut (2,569)
Sel
f-id
enti
fied
Tri
bal
Aff
liati
on
an
d T
ota
l Po
pu
lati
on
Population
AlaskaOther US States
*Alaska Native in combination with one or more ethnicitySource: ISER; US Census 2000 PHC-T-18
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Alaska Native (only) Single Ethnic Background, 2000
77,992; 79%
20,884; 21%
Living in AK Living outside AK
Source: US Census, 2000
Where we are …Where we are …
Alaska Natives Living Abroad
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
ANAI Single Ethnic Background, 2000
97,953; 4%
2,378,003; 96%
Living in AK Living outside AK
Source: US Census, 2000
Where we are …Where we are …
Alaska Natives Living Abroad
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Alaska Native (only) in Combination with Other Ethnic Background(s), 2000
108,187; 9%
1,071,330; 91%
Living in AK Living outside AK
Source: US Census, 2000
Where we are …Where we are …
Alaska Natives Living Abroad
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
ANAI in Combination with Other Ethnic Background(s), 2000
119,241; 3%
4,000,060; 97%
Living in AK Living outside AK
Source: US Census, 2000
Where we are …Where we are …
Alaska Natives Living Abroad
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
General trends since 1990:
• State population growth has been greater among Alaska Natives relative to non-Natives
• Regional growth rates varied, but by far the Southern region grew most rapidly – mainly due to out-migration from other regions and states
• The cohort of Alaska Natives between ages 10 and 18 now comprise the largest share of the Alaskan Native population
• The share of Alaska Natives aged 40-55 experienced the fastest growth since 1990 and comprise the second largest share of the population
• Alaska Natives aged 70-74 and 85+ grew roughly at an annual rate of 6%
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
General trends since 1990:
• Population distribution between males and females has remained relatively constant
• Infant Mortality rates have declined but large regional differences persist among Alaska Natives and infant mortality rates remain double non-Native infant mortality
• Alaska Natives are increasingly multi-ethnic
• Changes in the 2000 census invalidate Alaska Native population growth statistics based on straightforward comparisons to the 1990 census; the choice of a bridging method will strongly influence the statistics used in determining Federal and State appropriations
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Statewide Population Growth
2.7
1.2
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
perc
ent
Native Grow th Rate Non-Native Grow th Rate
Estimated 1990-2000 Annual Population Growth Rates
Source: US Census - ISER preliminary estimates
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Regional Population Growth
Estimated Annual Regional Growth of ANAI Population, 1990-2000
5.5%
1.2%
1.8%1.8%1.7%
NORTH INTERIOR SW SOUTH SE
Statewide Growth of Native Population: 2.7%
Source: US Census - ISER preliminary estimates
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Population Change by Age: all ages
Alaska Natives by Age as Percent of Total ANAI Population, 1990-2000
0.0%
0.5%1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%3.0%
3.5%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Age
Pe
rce
nt
2000 1990
Source: US Census, (2000 Native with one or more ethnicities); ISER
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Population Change by Age: all ages and gender
Source: US Census, (2000 Native with one or more ethnicities); ISER
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Population Change by Age: all ages and gender
Source: US Census, (2000 Native with one or more ethnicities); ISER
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Population Change by Age: 5 year cohorts
ANAI Estimated Annual Growth Rate by 5 Year Cohorts, 1990-2000
-2.0%
-1.0%
.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
age cohortSource: US Census - ISER preliminary estimates
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Population Change by Age: young, old, and elders
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
pe
rce
nt
North Interior SW South SE State
Estimated Annual Regional Growth Rates by Age, Alaska Natives, 1990-2000
0-14 15-64 65+Source: US Census - ISER preliminary
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Changes in Mortality and Fertility: Infant Mortality
Statewide Trend in Infant Mortality, Native and Non-Native
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Dea
ths
per
1,00
0 Li
ve B
irths
Native Non-Native
Source: ISER preliminary estimates; AK Vital Statistics
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Infant Mortality by Region Nine Year Average
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
Dea
ths
per
1,00
0 liv
e bi
rths
Native Non-Native
Source: ISER preliminary estimates; AK Vital Statistics
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Changes in Mortality and Fertility: Infant Mortality
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Trends in Native Infant Mortality by Region (3 year average)
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999Dea
ths
per
1,00
0 Li
ve B
irths
Interior North South Southwest Southeast
Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census; AK Vital Statistics
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Changes in Mortality and Fertility: Infant Mortality
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Trends in Non-Native Infant Mortality by Region
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Dea
ths
per 1
,000
Liv
e B
irths
Interior North South Southwest Southeast
Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census AK Vital Statistics
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Changes in Mortality and Fertility: Infant Mortality
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Changes in Mortality and Fertility: Life Expectancy
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
Age
Alaska Native Life Expectancy at Birth, (1990-1999)
67.9 69.1 70.1 71.0 74.1 70.4 74.3 66.5 74.9
North Interior SW South SE NativeNative Female
Native Male
All Alaskans
Source: ISER preliminary estimate: US Census: Alaska Vital Statitsitcs
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Changes in Mortality and Fertility: General Fertility Rate
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
live
birt
hs p
er 1
000
fem
ales
be
twee
n ag
es 1
5-44
General Fertility Rate by Region, Alaska Natives, 1990-1999
138.5 87.5 142.3 91.7 81.4 108.3 58.9
North Interior SW South SEAlaska Native
Non Native
Source: ISER P reliminary Estimates; US Census; AlaskaVital Statistics
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Migration
Estimated Annual Regional Growth of ANAI Population, 1990-2000
5.49%
1.24%1.79%1.78%1.73%
NORTH INTERIOR SW SOUTH SE
Statewide Growth of Native Population: 2.68%
Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census; AK Vital Statistics
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Migration
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
NORTH INTERIOR SW SOUTH SE
Estimated Net-Migration by Region, Alaska Natives:1990-2000
Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census; AK Vital Statistics
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
How we have changed …How we have changed …
Migration
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84
Southern Region: Estimated Net Migration, Alaska Natives, 1990-2000
Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census; AK Vital Statistics
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we will be …Where we will be …
What can we expect in 2010 and beyond:
• A large increase in the share of 19-29 year olds – these changes will likely lead to:– Large wave of new entrants into the labor force
– New “baby boom”
– Less of a demand for elementary education between 2000-2010, but growing demand after 2010
– Greater demand for higher education
• A large increase in 40-60 year olds - this change implies:– Large Alaska Native labor force – without adequate labor
demand in rural areas out-migration and unemployment can be expected to increase
– Growth of Alaska Native retirees after 2010
• An increasing share of multi-ethnic Alaskan Natives
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we will be …
State: Alaska Native and American Indian Population 2000(ME) and Aged 2010 Population
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Actual Population 2000 (ME)
Aged Population 2000 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)
Aged Population 2010 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census; AK Vital Statistics
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we will be …
North: Alaska Native and American Indian Population 2000(ME) and Aged 2010 Population
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Actual Population 2000 (ME)
Aged Population 2000 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)
Aged Population 2010 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census; AK Vital Statistics
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we will be …
Interior: Alaska Native and American Indian Population 2000(ME) and Aged 2010 Population
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Actual Population 2000 (ME)
Aged Population 2000 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)
Aged Population 2010 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census; AK Vital Statistics
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we will be …
Southwest: Alaska Native and American Indian Population 2000(ME) and Aged 2010 Population
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Actual Population 2000 (ME)
Aged Population 2000 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)
Aged Population 2010 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census; AK Vital Statistics
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we will be …
South: Alaska Native and American Indian Population 2000(ME) and Aged 2010 Population
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Actual Population 2000 (ME)
Aged Population 2000 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)
Aged Population 2010 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census; AK Vital Statistics
AFN in Transition, 2000-2010
Where we will be …
Southeast: Alaska Native and American Indian Population 2000(ME) and Aged 2010 Population
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Actual Population 2000 (ME)
Aged Population 2000 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)
Aged Population 2010 (ME estimate) (assuming no migration)Source: ISER preliminary estimates; US Census; AK Vital Statistics