Afghanistan Policy Memo

8/13/2019 Afghanistan Policy Memo

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From: Zhihong Xu, Senior Military Briefer

To: Incoming Secretary of State

Subject: United States’ policy regarding current and future conditions in Afghanistan

Date: November 27th, 2012

TF: Erik Heinonen

Purpose: Given the withdrawal of active military personnel starting in 2014, the United

States (US) must focus on the need to ensure security and stability within Afghanistan and

its surrounding regions. This policy memo serves to highlight the interests of both the US

and countries bordering Afghanistan and to propose the best course of action necessary to

protect and maintain a strategic sphere of influence favorable to the US.

Background: Afghanistan is a nation of both diverse geography and consequently diverse

populations of people. The borders of Afghanistan were not drawn with the consideration

of the areas that different groups of people inhabit; various ethnic tribes in Afghanistan

such as the Pashtuns have been split into two countries due to the creation of the

indiscriminate borders. Thus, the citizens observe their allegiances to their ethnic groups

first and to the country of Afghanistan second which has created tension.While the ethnic differences account for a portion of distrust of the currently

Pashtun dominant government, the favoritism towards the Taliban and rampant

corruption of the Karzai administration are also instrumental in creating a lack of trust

between the Afghan people and their government. In looking forward to and past 2014, the

tension between the tribes will steadily rise due to the overhaul of government via

elections in 2014 after Hamid Karzai finishes his last term. The transition to new leaders

will create a power vacuum; the various ethnic groups including the Taliban will struggle

against each other in an attempt to gain control of the nation. While the transition of power

is designed to be peaceful through voting, the US and foreign nations must be prepared for

the possibility of a violent civil war that is sure to incur massive humanitarian losses.

The countries immediately bordering Afghanistan have a deep, vested interest in thefuture of Afghanistan. Most notably, Iran and Pakistan wish to see a strong central

government come to power in Afghanistan that is not held by the Taliban. Iran has been

plagued by attacks from the Taliban and Pakistan has seen much of the Taliban spill into

the country across the Afghan border and has consequently been forced to spend money,

time, and lives to address the issue.1 Should Afghanistan launch into civil war as it did after

the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, the entire stability of the region will be undermined.

Pakistan and India, both nations with nuclear arsenals, are very concerned over the actions

of the Taliban and Haqqani network and the disruptions in peace the groups can bring if

the region were to collapse.

The US currently has 68,000 troops protecting vital interests within Afghanistan.2

The current presidential administration has set forth plans to pull troops out ofAfghanistan starting no later than the end of 2014. Although the withdrawal does not mean

that all troops will vacate the country, there will still be a presence of special forces, air

1 Hasnat, Syed Farooq. "Pakistan & Afghanistan: Domestic Pressures and Regional Threats." Columbia School of International and Public

Affairs. N.p., Autumn 2009. Web. 19 Nov. 2012. <http://jia.sipa.columbia.edu/pakistan’s-strategic-interests-afghanistan-andfluctuating-us-strategy>.

2 Rogan, Josh. "State Department Official: Negotiations to Extend U.S. Troop Presence in Afghanistan Starting Soon." The Cable: Foreign Policy. N.p., 16 Oct. 2012. Web. 23 Nov. 2012.



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support, and continued economic aid in the form of sixteen billion dollars from various

nations for four years after withdrawal. The US must consider the ramifications of the

withdrawal on the stability of American interests within Central Asian region.3

The US has been and will continue to be deeply committed to creating a stable,

democratic process in Afghanistan. The sole purpose of the initial entry into Afghanistan

was to eliminate groups that jeopardized the safety the United States and its commitmentto democratic ideals. Money, time, and most importantly, lives of American soldiers have

been invested in Afghanistan. An ill-planned withdrawal strategy risks losing the progress

that the US has made to prevent Al Qaeda from using Afghanistan as an origin for attacks.

Discussion of Course of Action: There are multiple approaches that the US can consider.

An option is to continue the current multipronged approach of creating a more stable

Afghanistan through military support, narcotic drug reduction efforts, and development

and aid for the infrastructure. However, this effort is difficult to sustain even with the

current levels of troops and aid in the country and will no doubt stretch the capacities of

the US post troop withdrawal past their limits. The opium production within Afghanistan is

so extensive that it accounts for roughly a third of the gross domestic product. A large

portion of government officials is involved heavily in the opium trade. While the opiumproduction funds illegal activities in Afghanistan, eliminating a third of the economy or

even attempting to constrict it is simply not an efficient use of limited resources.

From a security perspective, the US cannot possibly remain within Afghanistan

forever. While there are plans to have 25,000 troops in the country through 2024, the US

will eventually have to let the Afghan people run their own country in a manner that does

not threaten the safety of the US.4 The US can look into concentrating efforts to create a

stronger strategic partnership with Afghanistan for long term developmental and security

goals in the region. The acceleration of training for the Afghan National Security Force

(ANSF) to the desired number of 260,000 members is a viable strategy to guarantee the

stability of the country for and past the upcoming 2014 election.5 The sooner this force is

ready, the greater the chance is for having a peaceful transition of power. Currentresources should be redirected to focus on not only providing the necessary weapons and

equipment but also instilling the skills necessary for Afghan military and paramilitary

police units to secure the nation. The US should play a support role by advising the Afghans

militarily and emphasizing the importance of intelligence gathering and sharing instead of

using conventional military tactics. It is ultimately up for Afghanistan to govern itself; the

sooner it learns to do so, the more effective it will be in the future.

Recommendation: In the interests of the US concerning global security, one focused on

promoting a fair and democratic process while protecting the safety of the American

people, the US needs to foster a close partnership with the Afghan government to expedite

the training and preparedness of the ANSF. I urge that the incoming Secretary of State

adopt this policy to ensure that Afghanistan reaches a state of peace.

3 "With New Pledge of Support to Afghanistan, How Best to Ensure Effective Aid?" PBS Newshour . N.p., 11 July 2012. Web. 24 Nov. 2012.

<http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/july-dec12/afghan_07-11.html>.

4 Rogan, Josh. "State Department Official: Negotiations to Extend U.S. Troop Presence in Afghanistan Starting Soon." The Cable: Foreign

Policy. N.p., 16 Oct. 2012. Web. 23 Nov. 2012.<http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/10/16/state_department_official_negotiations_to_extend_us_troop_presence_in_afghan

istan_s>.

5 Ibid.



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Works Cited

Hasnat, Syed Farooq. "Pakistan & Afghanistan: Domestic Pressures and Regional Threats."

Columbia School of International and Public Affairs. N.p., Autumn 2009. Web. 19 Nov.

2012. <http://jia.sipa.columbia.edu/pakistan’s-strategic-interests-afghanistan-and-

fluctuating-us-strategy>.

Rogan, Josh. "State Department Official: Negotiations to Extend U.S. Troop Presence in

Afghanistan Starting Soon." The Cable: Foreign Policy. N.p., 16 Oct. 2012. Web. 23

Nov. 2012.

<http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/10/16/state_department_official_negotiati

ons_to_extend_us_troop_presence_in_afghanistan_s>.

"With New Pledge of Support to Afghanistan, How Best to Ensure Effective Aid?" PBS

Newshour . N.p., 11 July 2012. Web. 24 Nov. 2012.

<http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/july-dec12/afghan_07-11.html>.

Documents

Afghanistan Policy Memo