Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
FEWS NET Afghanistan Kabul [email protected]
FEWS NET Washington
AFGHANISTAN Food Security Outlook April to September 2010
Figure 1: Current food security conditions, April 2010
Source: FEWS NET
For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, see www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale
• Food security conditions are expected to generally remain stable throughout the country in the next 6 months, with the exception of isolated areas.
• Good food security conditions are attributable to the 2009 historical large harvest, favorable 2010 harvest forecast and low wheat prices.
• Isolated food insecurity is likely to occur between
April and September for rain‐fed and downstream farms and pastoralists in the eastern parts of the country because of poor precipitation.
• Other isolated food insecure areas include
earthquake affected households in Samangan Province, Amu River eroded districts of Jawzjan Province, war‐driven IDPs of Helmand Provinces and forcedly repatriated households of Sar‐i‐Pul Province are expected to be highly food insecure as these households livelihoods are disrupted and rely on external assistance and assets liquidation.
Seasonal calendar and critical events
Source: FEWS NET
1717 H St NW Washington DC 20006 [email protected]
FEWS NET is a USAID funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
www.fews.net/afghanistan
AFGHANISTAN Food Security Outlook April to September 2010
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Current food security conditions: The historically large harvest in 2009 provided above normal income and food stocks for Afghan farmers for the past year. As a result, the 2009/2010 lean season has been better than normal. Food stocks for poor and middle households were expected to run low starting in January. Beginning in April, households began to engage in seasonal labor migration while pastoralists begin grazing their animals.
Figure 2: Current Accumulated Precipitation Anomalies by Basin April 10, 2010
Source: USGS/FEWS NET Figure 3: April 7 – 22 2010 Rainfed Agriculture NDVI compared to 2008
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
The 2010 winter wet season was anomalous. Precipitation amounts during October and November were higher than the long‐term average creating favorable sowing conditions. Above normal snowfall amounts occurred from November into the beginning of December. However, during late December and January, when precipitation usually occurs weekly, mostly dry weather dominated the region. This resulted in little or no increase in snow depths. Short‐term dryness developed in the northeastern part of the country. Despite periods of rain and snow during March and April, substantial precipitation deficits remained across the northeast parts of the country. The central highlands also experienced drier than normal conditions, although not as severe as the northeast part of the country. In addition, temperatures during March and early April averaged above normal across much of Afghanistan with the largest positive anomalies occurring from March 10 ‐ 20. The unseasonably warm temperatures resulted in rapid and early snow melt. Despite the erratic winter wet season, the total 2009‐2010 irrigated wheat harvest is expected to be above average. Generally, irrigated wheat crops of downstream, far from water sources will have production that are near drought conditions, while irrigated wheat crops upstream (near water sources) are expected to have above normal production. These conditions can be attributable to favorable sowing conditions because of a good start of season precipitation and input availability and significant less wheat crops diseases. Eastern Afghanistan is of particular concern as water requirements are estimated to be lower than demand for irrigated wheat. Although it is early in the season to estimate rainfed wheat production, early remote sensing information indicates that rain‐fed wheat conditions are slightly better than 2009 in the north and northeast parts of the country while northwest shows a slight deterioration. Price in Kabul decreased by 13% compared to the five‐year average. Decrease in price of wheat in Kabul results from strategic stock of households from last year and second year good harvest. The decrease in prices is also explained by decreases fuel prices which affected the transported costs. In addition, wheat imports from Pakistan and Kazakhstan have improved compared to previous years because of good production in 2010.
2
AFGHANISTAN Food Security Outlook April to September 2010
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Most‐likely food security scenario, April to September 2010
Figure 4: Most-Likely Food Security Scenario, April – June 2010
Source: FEWS NET
For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, see www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale
Figure 5: Most-Likely Food Security Scenario, July – September 2010
Source: FEWS NETFor more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, see
www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale
The mostly likely scenario for April to September 2010 is premised on the following assumption:
2010 irrigated and rain‐fed harvest is likely to be average or above average in most part of the country, with the exception of eastern zone where rainfed wheat failed and downstream farms production is low.
Crop diseases are likely to be insignificant, particularly yellow rust.
Security situation will not disrupt trade between markets.
Future military operations will not lead to further IDPs.
Eastern Afghanistan (Rainfed Pastoralists and Downstream farms) Provinces in the eastern water basins received 54 percent less precipitation compared to the long‐term average as of the beginning of April. Seasonal cumulative rainfall levels are near the 2007/2008 drought years. Water necessary for the irrigated crops are estimated to be 50 to 70 percent of what is required according to USGS Water Requirements Satisfaction Models (WRSI). The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan has not impeded livelihoods or market activities in this area. Prices of wheat continue to decrease compared to the five year average. With a poor start‐of‐season and inadequate rainfall, rainfed wheat crops in Surkano and Marrawara district in Kunar province and Kot District of Nangarhar provinces will likely be lost. Wheat from rainfed crops make up a majority of their food sources from June until December. This area has not observed rainfall deficits at this magnitude within the last 20 years. With the complete failure of the rainfed wheat harvests in this area, 6,000 households are expected to be highly food insecure for the remainder of the consumption season unless they receive external food assistance. There is also a risk for that these households will revert to negative coping strategy such as lowering meals consumed. As a result of the rain deficits in the eastern region, grazing pastures have spars to low vegetation according to the April 22, 2010 rangeland NDVI. Kuchi pastoralists primarily graze in this area at this time of year. Without adequate pastures sheep and goat body conditions are expected to deteriorate. Recently this group has been generally food secure because of favorable terms of trade between sheep and wheat. This was likely due to recent increases in demand from international organizations and troops in the area. However, with a poor prospect for ruminants body conditions in the future, these
3
AFGHANISTAN Food Security Outlook April to September 2010
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
terms of trade are expected to diminish. This group will likely experience moderate food insecure conditions starting in August. The number of Kuchi in the area is unknown. As was observed in other parts of the country, the irregular winter wet season resulted in irrigated water deficits for irrigated systems downstream from originating water sources. Irrigated wheat production for farmers in Chaparhar, Rodat, Kot and Surkhrod Districts of Nangarhar province are expected to be less than or near drought levels. The harvest that will be realized in these areas will likely last farmers until August with little to no surplus to sell in the market. In addition, agricultural labor demands will drop, providing less income for poorer households in the area. With limited income and food from the wheat harvest, households in this area expected to remain generally food secure for the next three months. However in the beginning of August food availability and income earned will likely decreasing hindering food access and availability. At which time, approximately 35,000 households will become moderately food insecure requiring some level of coping or external assistance to meet their food needs.
Figure 6: WRSI Irrigated Supply and Demand Anomaly May 1, 2010.
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
WFP has 27,000 tons of mixed commodities allocated for the eastern region in 2010. In addition, there are employment opportunities from international organization and development activities will likely provide income sources to. Helmand Province (Marja and Nadali Districts) While, Helmand province provides significant seasonal labor opportunities to harvest poppy, which takes place during the lean season, the area is highly vulnerable to ongoing conflict of Afghanistan as it is the stronghold of insurgents. The military operation of Marja and Nadali Districts in early 2010 caused wide spread displacement, where 27,000 people registered as IDP. Most of these people displaced to Lashkargah City where they choose to stay with relatives. After the completion of military operation in Marja and Nadali Districts, the majority of IDPs did not return to their villages of origins due to ongoing conflict and high exposure to IED. IDPs are losing livelihood assets, standing crops and employment opportunities. Many are using savings or liquidating assets to meet survival needs. Humanitarian assistances response is good but not to the extent to alleviate shocks impact. 22,000 war‐driven IDPs are currently highly food insecure and are expected to remain this way for the next 6 months food security without additional. Military operations are expected to shift to Kandahar where observers believe that addition 1,000 people may become displaced. Samangan Province (Dar‐I‐Sup Bala & Payan and Ruy Duab Districts) On April 19th an earthquake struck Dar‐I‐sup Bala, Dar‐i‐Payan and Ruy Duab districts of Samangan province killing seven, injuring twenty and destroying 1,700 houses and two schools. With losses to life and infrastructure, households will depend on kinship for immediate survival and recovery assistance. There is a risk that households in this area will need to divert income, savings and time from meeting normal survival needs and livelihood activities to reconstruction purposes. With a preoccupation of reconstruction, standing crops in this area will likely be unattended, and either not harvested or harvested with low yields. In addition, people are engaged in labor opportunity in this time of the year, however, people will likely forgo this activity until reconstruction is on its way. In order to cope with loss income and food, households will likely need to take on more debt to support themselves and rely on relatives – putting a strain on the those households. Current and next three months food security conditions are believed to be highly food insecure while after the harvest the food security condition level may alleviate to moderately food insecure level.
4
AFGHANISTAN Food Security Outlook April to September 2010
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Jawzjan Province (Khamyab and Qarqin Districts) Areas of Khamyab and Qarqin districts in Jawzjan province running along the Amu River are experiencing accelerated agricultural land erosion. An estimated 80 cm of cultivated agricultural land is falling into the river each day. 250 households are directly affected with potentially 5,000 additional household being affected within the next year. The erosion of agricultural land is causing households to lose important physical assets like land and shelter. A major part of the food from standing crops and income from production sales will be lost as well. After losing important food and income sources, households are expected to either live with relatives or go to urban areas until they can reestablish their livelihoods elsewhere. These households are highly food insecure and will require assistance for resettlement. Sar‐i‐Pul Province (Sozma Qala District) The Iran government deported 450 Afghan Baluch households who returned to their places of origin in Sozma Qala districts of Sar‐i‐Pul Province to resettle. An estimated 5,000 households are expected to follow. Households arrived with little livelihood assets. Due to limited availability of land, labor opportunities and housing, the presence additional repatriated households are causing tension between the host community and repatriated population. In addition, basic services such as drinking water, health and shelter are inaccessible for these households. Households are currently not receiving external assistance and have limited capacity to cope. They are currently highly food insecure and remain so until they can reestablish livelihoods or receive external assistance. Table 1. Events, which could change the most likely food security scenario
Geographic Focus Area
Possible events in the next 6 months that would change the
most likely scenario in this area
Impacts on food security conditions
Likelihood of
occurrence*
Key variables to monitor
Eastern Region
• Crop diseases • External assistance
• Crop diseases, such as yellow rust, negatively impacts harvest of the entire country and eastern region which can result high price and low food availability
• If sufficient external aid is not provided people may in engage in severe coping strategies
Unlikely Unlikely
Agro‐met monthly report
Helmand Province
• Exacerbating conflict
• Exacerbating conflict will livelihoods and food security
Unlikely UNAMA
Humanitarian updates
Samangan Province
• Reoccurrence of earthquake
• Poor response to affected households
• Reoccurrence of earthquake may further devastate food security situation
• Poor humanitarian response to affected households may exacerbate recovery phase
Very Unlikely
Unlikely
UNAMA Humanitarian
updates
Jawzjan Provinces
• Inability to borrow money from relative
• Affected households food security conditions may further deteriorate if they are unable to borrow money to explore option for alternative livelihoods
Unlikely UNAMA
Sar‐i‐Pul Province
• Return of additional force repatriation
• Return of additional repatriated households may increase further tension over access to natural resources
Very Unlikely
UNAMA
5
AFGHANISTAN Food Security Outlook April to September 2010
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
6
* Probability levels Description Unlikely Could occur in the time period if conditions changed moderately
Very unlikely Could occur in the time period if conditions changed significantly
FEWS NET Afghanistan [email protected]
FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC 20006 [email protected]
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
AFGHANISTAN Monthly Price Bulletin April 2010
Monthly prices for Afghanistan are supplied by WFP VAM and the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock.
Wheat is the staple food for most Afghans, comprising more than 70 percent of their diet. Low‐quality rice is a poor, but sometimes necessary, substitute. All markets represent significant population centers and consumer markets. Kabul, the capital, supplies the central provinces and is a transit point between the north, south, east, and west. Jalalabad supplies the eastern part of the country and acts as a cross‐border market with Pakistan. Mazar‐e‐Sarif supplies northern provinces and, in a good year, the southern provinces as well. Faizabad supplies the chronically food insecure northeast region. Maimana market supplies the drought‐prone northwest region. Hirat supplies the west. Kandahar supplies the southwestern part of the country where drought, civil insecurity, and war often hinder market activity.
AFGHANISTAN Monthly Price Bulletin April 2010
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2
AFGHANISTAN Monthly Price Bulletin April 2010
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3
