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The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation
Bill Anderson, Chief Economist
Christopher Robison, Supervising Economist
Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau
Aerospace and Defense Sector
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Despite the Recent Uptick in the Jobless Rate; Underlying Trends Still Remain Positive NV vs. the U.S. unemployment rate (SA)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Nevada U.S.
Page 1
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Including Discouraged Workers Adds 0.4 Point to the “Official” Rate Alternative Measures Of Labor Underutilization
Measure Underutilization Concept Level
Official Ratejobless persons available to take a job who have actively sought work in the past four weeks
6.3%
U-1 jobless 15 weeks or longer 2.7%
U-2 job losers and persons losing a temporary job 3.5%
U-3 similar to official rate 6.7%
U-4 U-3 plus discouraged workers 7.1%
U-5 U-4 plus others marginally attached to the labor force 7.9%
U-6 U-5 plus those employed part-time for economic reasons 13.1%
Offical Rate: annual average of 2015:IIIQ through 2016:IIQ
Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization(Annual Average - 2015:IIIQ through 2016:IIQ)
Page 2
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Initial Claims at Lowest Level in a Decade initial claims for unemployment insurance
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Claims 12-Month Moving Average
Page 3
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Jobs Continue to Advance; Since 2011, Monthly Gains Recorded in all but 8 Months nonfarm jobs in Nevada (SA)
1,000,000
1,050,000
1,100,000
1,150,000
1,200,000
1,250,000
1,300,000
1,350,000
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
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The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Job Growth Holding Relatively Steady at an Annualized Rate of 30K-35K job growth (SA; year-over-year)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
'14 '15 '16
percent change
jobs
Jobs Pct. Change
Page 5
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Job Gains>Losses in 21 Straight Quarters; 2015:IVQ Net Gain Strongest in a Decade private sector gross job gains vs. gross job losses (SA)
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
net jobs gross job gains gross job losses
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The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Opening Gains>Closing Losses Last 17 Quarters; Net Gain=3,400 in 2015:IVQ gross job gains vs. gross job losses in opening & closing establishments (SA)
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
net jobs gross job gains (openings) gross job losses (closings)
Page 7
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
There are a Variety of STEM-Related Skills in Demand Based Upon On-Line Job Ads STEM skills in demand over past 12 months
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Software Development
Technical Support
Repair
Supervisory Skills
Accounting
Customer Service
Scheduling
Project Management
Budgeting
Structured Query Language (SQL)
Job Postings
Page 8
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada Job Growth Exceeds Nation in 48 Straight Months; 2.7% vs. 1.7% in June job growth (year-over-year)
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Nevada U.S.
Page 9
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
44% of Nevada’s Workforce is at Least 45 Years Old; 39% a Decade Ago 2015:IIIQ Nevada workforce by age
14-24 Years Old12%
25-3422%
35-4422%
45-5422%
55+22%
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The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Nevada Wages at $875/Week in 2016:IQ; A Record-High for the Qtr.; Up 1.2% Over 2015 Nevada average weekly wages
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Percentage Change
Aver
age
Wee
kly W
age
Percentage Change Average Weekly Wage
Page 11
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Personal Income Growth Hovering in the Mid-Single Digits in the Silver State Nevada personal income
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$0
$20,000,000
$40,000,000
$60,000,000
$80,000,000
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
$140,000,000
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Percentage ChangePers
onal
Inco
me
Percentage Change Personal Income
Page 12
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Aerospace and Defense Sector
Page 13
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Employment Projection 16,200 jobs in 2016; 13,400 jobs projected by 2024
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. (EMSI)
Page 14
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Aerospace and Defense Industries 2016 employment
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. (EMSI)
Page 15
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Regional Competitive Advantage aerospace and defense industries
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. (EMSI)
Page 16
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Industries vs. Occupations
Although the sector councils are designed to address employment needs in specific industries, this work can only be accomplished by examining and training individuals at the occupational level.
Page 17
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Aerospace and Defense Occupations 2016 employment and projected growth by 2024
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. (EMSI)
Page 18
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Regional Competitive Advantage aerospace and defense occupations
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. (EMSI)
Page 19
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Largest Occupations by Ad Volume aerospace and defense online job postings
Source: Labor Insight/Burning Glass Technologies
Page 20
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
2016 Average Hourly Wages
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. (EMSI)
Page 21
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
O-NET Occupational Skills and Attributes Reports
Source: Occupational Information Network (O-NET)
Page 22
Tools Skills KnowledgeAnemometers Critical Thinking MechanicalCompasses Reading Comprehension Building and ConstructionDesktop computers Active Listening DesignDigital cameras Complex Problem Solving Public Safety and SecurityDistance meters Mathematics Engineering and Technology
Technologies Abilities Work ActivitiesAnalytical or scientific software Deductive Reasoning Making Decisions and Solving ProblemsCalendar and scheduling software Inductive Reasoning Getting InformationComputer aided design CAD software Information ordering Communicating with Supervisors, Peers, or SubordinatesData base user interface and query software Oral Comprehension Interacting With ComputersDevelopment environment software Oral Expression Evaluating Information to Determine Compliance with Standards
O*NET Occupation Profile - Civil Engineers
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Natural Resources Occupations skills specified in online job ads
Source: Labor Insight/Burning Glass Technologies
Page 23
Baseline Skills Specialized Skills Data Software SkillsCommunication Skills Scheduling Microsoft OfficeWriting Project Management Microsoft ExcelPlanning Budgeting Microsoft PowerpointMicrosoft Office Repair Microsoft WordResearch Inspection LINUXMicrosoft Excel Supervisory Skills AutoCADComputer Skills Customer Service Microsoft WindowsOrganizational Skills Staff Management Word ProcessingQuality Assurance and Control Civil Engineering Computer Aided Drafting/Design (CAD)Project Management Technical Support Microsoft Access
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Aligning Economic and Workforce Development
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A consensus ranking of high demand occupations that align with economic development priorities specific to natural resources
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
Location Quotients (LQs) are used to identify potential sources of competitive advantage, or areas of regional specialization. LQs measure the relative concentration of a given industry or occupation in a state relative to the nation.
LQs are calculated by dividing the proportion of the state’s economic activity in an industry or in an occupation, by the proportion of the nation’s economic activity in that same industry or occupation.
LQs of 1.2 or higher indicate some degree of specialization. LQs of 0.8 to 1.2 indicate normal distribution of industry within the region. LQs of less than 0.8 may indicate that the region may be deficient.
Limitations of on-line job postings: Jobs requiring low skills/low wages tend to use alternative methods of attracting job seekers
and are under represented in online ads. Internal company hiring and union hiring are often not captured by online ads. Online job posting volume does not necessarily correlate with the level of job openings or hiring. The percentage of job postings that specify a certification is small limiting how representative
the data is. Algorithmic ad parsing can lead to miscoding occupations and skills due to similarities between
abbreviations and other letter combinations, etc.
Clarifications and Limitations
Page 25
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
In online job postings Burning Glass reports licenses and certifications together. The mean salary data in job postings reflects the salary listed by employers in job postings,
adjusted to be equivalent to a full-time, annual wage. If a salary range is specified, the median of the range used.
High ad volume often occurs for occupations/industries that are having difficulty finding qualified candidates, high turnover positions/recurring openings, or when companies are building large candidate pools.
Online job postings should only be used with caution when developing/analyzing time series trends due to the constant changes in the rate of online advertising usage and in the methods used for collecting the data.
Clarifications and Limitations
Page 26
The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency
For Additional Information, Please Contact
Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Research and Analysis Bureau
Bill Anderson
Chief Economist [email protected]
Christopher Robison
Supervising Economist [email protected]
(775) 684-0450 http://www.nevadaworkforce.com
follow us on Twitter @nvlabormarket
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