Joint Study Committee on EmergencyPreparedness and Disaster Management Recovery

John Dorman, Assistant Emergency Management DirectorMay 5, 2010

Advancing North Carolina’s ResiliencyIntegrated Hazard Risk Management

• Expand from the one-dimension of hazard identification to an IntegratedHazard Risk Management strategy that integrates hazard andvulnerability identification, calculates risk, and supports state and localgovernment mitigation;

• Develop data and tools that enable property owners, the private sector(CI/KR), and communities to define hazard risk on a routine basis;

• Effectively communicate these risks to the public and private sectordecision makers, stakeholders, homeowners to understand:

– What are your hazards?

– What are your vulnerabilities and at what point are they exposed to loss?

– What are your specific risks associated with each and all hazards?

– How can you mitigate this risk effectively and efficiently?

• Implement IHRM vision in concert with the flood map maintenanceschedule.

• Work in concert with FEMA on Risk MAP implementation (serve as aprototype, demonstration, standards development)

Integrated Hazard Risk Management - Vision

During the 2009 Session, 166A-5(3) was amended to include:

• (EM) Serving as the lead state agency for the coordination of information

and resources for hazard risk management, which shall include the

following responsibilities:

Coordinating with other State agencies and county governments in

conducting hazard risk analysis. To the extent another State agency has

primary responsibility for the adoption of hazard mitigation standards, those

standards shall be applied in conducting a hazard risk analysis.

Establishing and maintaining a hazard risk management information system

and tools to display natural hazards and vulnerabilities and conducting risk

assessment.

Acquiring and leveraging all natural hazard data generated or maintained by

State agencies and county governments.

Acquiring and leveraging all vulnerability data generated or maintained by

State agencies and county governments.

Maintaining a clearinghouse for methodologies and metrics for calculating

and communicating hazard probability and loss estimation.

Hazard Risk Management - Legislative Intent

IHRM defines Risk as a function of:

• Hazard’s Probability (HP)

• Vulnerabilities (V)

• Consequences (C), both direct and indirect cost

• Resilience (R), influenced by individual / community

wealth and existence of mitigation planning

Risk = f { HP, V, C, R}

Speaking of Risk – What is it?

First Floor Elevations

Hazard Data1. Hazard Identification

2. Vulnerable Systems

Vulnerabilities

3. Risk Assessment

5. Mitigation

4. Communication

Integrated Hazard Risk Management - Concept

• Identifies and displays all natural hazards at different magnitudelevels / annual frequency on the parcel, statewide, and nationallevel for:

IHRM – Hazard Identification

• Riverine flooding

• Dam failure

• Levee failure

• Coastal flooding

• Storm surge from hurricanes

• Coastal erosion

• Landslides

• Earthquakes• Wind (straight line/hurricane)• Tornadoes• Wildfire• Snow/Ice• Hail• Drought• Sea Level Rise *

• Acquire / generate spatial polygons for all structures greater than 800

square feet (~ 7.5 million structures in North Carolina).

• Collect all critical infrastructure (18 sectors) locations, failure threshold,

and failure interdependency data (model construction)

• Collect detail First Floor Elevations for all structures (Inclinometer for

structures w/in the 500-year SFHA. LiDAR –HAG & LAG for all

structures outside the 500-year SFHA).

• Collect and conflate parcel data (FFE, foundation type, stories, roof

slope, digital picture, gables) with structure shapefiles.

• Acquire / leverage social vulnerability index (SoVi – Susan Cutter,

and/or Uvi – Howard University)

IHRM – Vulnerabilities

Vulnerability IdentificationBuilding Footprints Project

Vulnerabilities – Building Footprints(Developed for over 6,900,000 buildings to date)

* 100-percent complete by mid-June 2010

– Statewide Parcel Data – 98 counties

IHRM Scope: Vulnerabilities

– Building Attributes:

IHRM Scope: Vulnerabilities

Building Footprints Project

IHRM – VulnerabilitiesCI / KR Interdependencies

• Derive / calculate the estimated damage (direct and indirect loss)for each structure for each hazard (different event thresholds –e.g.10, 25, 50, 100, and 500-year flood).

• Derive / calculate the damage threshold event probability duringa 5, 10, 15, and 30-year mortgage period.

• Generate overall risk assessment (calculated from probability,financial loss calculation, and level of event vulnerability) for eachstructure for each hazard.

• Enable the property owner / community to derive / calculate thethreshold event causing social and environmental vulnerability.

• Enable communities / private sector to calculate high-riskproperties, hazards, habitat, and/or population.

IHRM – Risk Assessment

• Provide a mitigation strategy decision tree for each hazard.

• Provide a “BCA / ROI Lite” calculator for select mitigationstrategies.

• Provide automated mitigation plan template for homeowner tocommunity.

IHRM – Risk Mitigation

Progression to Risk

Pre - 2000 Map Mod Vulnerabilities

Consequences IHRM

Pre – 2000 Data Needs

Vector Data

SFHA BoundaryFlood Insurance

Mandate

Horizontal In / Out -with add’t data

Business Value

HazardProbability –1% annual

chance flood

Risk = f { HPHP, V, C, R }

Map ModernizationMap Modernization

HazardProbability - 1%,

0.2% annualchance flood

Data Needs

Vector Data

SFHA BoundaryFlood Insurance

Mandate

In / Out - withadditional data

Business Value

Vector Data

SFHA Boundary

Aerial Base

Elevation Data

Insurance Ratingfrom Survey FFE

Vertical In/Out –with additional data

BFEs

Flood InsuranceMandate

Horizontal In / Out -with add’t dataRisk =Risk = ff {{ HPHP, V, C, R }, V, C, R }

Vulnerabilities

Adjacent Grade

First FloorElevations

Foundation Type

Value

Data Needs

Built Environment

Risk = f { HP, VV, C, R }

Data Needs

Vector Data

SFHA BoundaryFlood Insurance

Mandate

Horizontal In / Out -with add’t data

Business Value

Aerial Base

Elevation Data

Insurance Ratingfrom Survey FFE

Vertical In/Out –with additional data

BFEs

Consequences –Direct Loss

Risk = f { HP, V, CC, R }

Depth Grids Depth of Flooding

Adjacent Grade

First FloorElevations

Foundation Type

Value

Depth Grids Depth of Flooding

Structural Risk

Address: 103 Shepard Drive, Rocky Mount, NC

First Floor Elevation: 79.3 ft

% Chance of Flooding in 30 Year Term: 52%

Threshold Return Period: 20 Year

Flooding Depth and Damages for Building:

Flooding ReturnPeriod

FloodingDepth

Damages toBuilding

10 Year 0 ft $0

25 Year 0.6 ft $15,000

50 Year 1.4 ft $45,000

100 Year 3.5 ft $80,000

500 Year 7.6 ft $200,000

*Annualized Damages for this property are $8,750

Integrated Hazard Risk Management

DamDamBreakBreak

LeveeLeveeFailureFailure

RiverineFlooding

FireFireRiskRisk

CoastalErosion

LandslideLandslideRiskRisk

Data Needs

Vector Data

SFHA BoundaryFlood Insurance

Mandate

Horizontal In / Out -with add’t data

Business Value

Aerial Base

Elevation Data

Insurance Ratingfrom Survey FFE

Vertical In/Out –with additional data

BFEs

Depth Grids Depth of Flooding

Adjacent Grade

First FloorElevations

Foundation Type

Value

Depth Grids Depth of Flooding

Structural RiskAdd AdditionalAdd AdditionalHazardHazard

Probability DataProbability Dataand Becomesand BecomesHazard RiskHazard Risk

With EachWith EachAdditional DataAdditional Data

Input EverInput Ever

Integrated Hazard Risk Management

Socio-economicsCriticalInfrastructure

Adjacent Grade

First FloorElevations

Foundation Type

Value

Data Needs

Vector Data

SFHA Boundary

Aerial Base

Elevation Data

BFEs

Depth Grids

Buildings

CriticalInfrastructure

Socio-Economic

EconomicModeling

Resiliency

Flood InsuranceMandate

Horizontal In / Out -with add’t data

Business Value

Insurance Ratingfrom Survey FFE

Vertical In/Out –with additional data

Depth of FloodingDepth of Flooding

Structural Risk

Indirect EconomicRisk

Social –Environmental Risk

Risk = f { HPHP, VV, CC, RR }

Total Risk

Indirect Cost

Total Impact

Cascading Failure

Vulnerability Indices : UVI, SoVI, InVI

Flexible Cartography

Cascading Failure

Mitigation Need

Community Risk

Community Risk Reduction

Industry / Sector Risk

Expandability

NEED for Insurance

Data Needs

Vector Data

SFHA Boundary

Aerial Base

Elevation Data

BFEs

Depth Grids

Buildings

CriticalInfrastructure

Socio-Economic

EconomicModeling

Resiliency

Flood InsuranceMandate

Horizontal In / Out -with add’t data

Business Value

Insurance Ratingfrom Survey FFE

Vertical In/Out –with additional data

Depth of FloodingDepth of Flooding

Structural Risk

Indirect EconomicRisk

Social –Environmental Risk

FloodMapping

IHRM

Integrated Hazard Risk Management

Questions