Advancements in Vehicle Technology & Alternative Fuels – OEM Overview

Curt Augustine, Director of Policy & Government Affairs, Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers Tri-State Transportation Commission Meeting, 6/17/16

Connected Cars & Driver Assists Automated Vehicle Technology

New Vehicle Safety & Technology

What is the Connected Car?

Connected Consumer

Driver Assists

Automated Vehicle

Vehicle to Infrastructure

(V2I)

Vehicle to Vehicle

(V2V)

Over the Air

Telematics

Connected Car

When the car moves from being a closed box

to a “mobile device” with the ability to gather data and

communicate it, that is a “Connected Car.”

Fatality Trend Since 1949-2014 (NHTSA)

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Fata

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VMT Fatalities Fatality Rate

Fatality Rate

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illion

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Extra Eyes on the Road…and a Co-Pilot Too

Driver-assistance systems on sale now use ultrasonic sensors, radar, cameras and other technology to provide blind-spot detection, collision avoidance and parking assistance

Future Cars will Talk to each Other

A DOT pilot in Ann Arbor, MI is testing 3000 talking vehicles…stay tuned.

What are the Key Hurdles to Clear?

Technology Liability Consumer Acceptance

Infrastructure Policy Fed/State Legislation?

Connected car technology is here and evolving; challenges are being addressed in many areas including autonomous

vehicle safety, cyber-security, privacy and who pays…

Enabling Auto Technologies

1. Radar: Detects objects nearby & in “blind zones”

2. Lane-keeping Cameras: Measure contrast between road and lines

3. LIDAR: Spinning lasers make a 360o real-time “map”

4. Infrared Camera: Detects objects ahead in the day & night

5. Visible Light Camera: Detects & predicts movement of objects

6. GPS Navigation: Tells the vehicle where to go

7. Wheel-mounted Sensors: Measure velocity relative to nearby objects

The Right Policy Framework… • People expect to be connected

everywhere.

• The Connected Car offers social value and provides a safer, more efficient journey.

• Many dimensions must be addressed yet: infrastructure, the FCC spectrum.

• Policymakers should be encouraged to support measures that move us closer to a Connected Car future and all its benefits.

Bottom Line: Connected Cars = Intelligent Mobility

Consumer Trends and Consumer Choice… Dozens of Options

Advanced Power Trains

What Type of Engine Will Your Next Vehicle Most Likely Be Powered By?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%Hybrid Gas Electric Diesel Something Else

Source: Auto Index 2015

37% 50% • Overall, very stable – almost 5000 samples per month • Subtle drift in intent away from alternatives to ICE • Drift pre-dates fall in gas prices • Consumers operate with “enough is enough” mentality

Retail Sales Of Cars And Trucks By Gas Prices

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

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2013 2014 2015Source: EIA, RL Polk

Gas Prices (per gallon) Truck Sales

Un

its

Sold

P

rice o

f a Gallo

n o

f Gas

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

1

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2.5

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3.5

4

4.5Ja

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2013 2014 2015 2016

Hyb

rid

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le S

ale

s A

s P

erc

en

tage

Of

Ret

ail S

ale

s Retail Market Share Of Hybrid And Gas Prices:

January 2013 - February 2016 Hybrid Sales Gas Prices

Price

of a G

allon

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as

Number of Alternative Powertrain Models on Sale: 2008-15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

PHEV Electric Hybrid

Mo

de

ls o

n S

ale

Source: FuelEconomy.gov

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Un

its

Sold

Alternative Powertrain Sales And Percentage Of All Volume

Hybrids

Plug-in Hybrid

Electric

Hydrogen

Percent All Volume

Models Achieving 30+ MPG and 40+ MPG

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Nu

mb

er

Of

Mo

de

ls

Model Year

30+ MPG

40+ MPG

↑7X

Source: fueleconomy.gov

Graph Source: Ward’s Automotive

Vehicle Fleet w/ No Change to Current ZEV

CARB Mid Term Evaluation Results Ahead of Federal NPRM

Month: 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5

Year: 2015 2016 2017 2018

NAS Report

EPA / NHTSA MTE Timeline

TAR EPA & NHTSA Propose Possible Changes

2022-25

Comment Period

MTE Decision Deadline

CARB MTE Timeline

ARB Submits Plan for Implementing

Governor’s 2030 GHG Goals

ARB Staff Mid- Term Report on

LEV 3, ZEV & GHG

Reccomendations to Board based on

MTE Results

ARB Workshops

ARB Hearing

Waiver Request

TAR Comment Period