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Advanced Progress Monitoring – individuals and groups. Presentation by, Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D. and Stacey Weber, Ed. S. Reading Trajectories Are Established Early. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Advanced Progress Monitoring – individuals and groups
Presentation by,
Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D. and
Stacey Weber, Ed. S.
• The probability of remaining a poor reader at the end of fourth grade, given a child was a poor reader at the end of first grade, was .88 .... the probability of remaining an average reader in fourth grade, given an average reading ability in first grade, was .87 (Juel, 1988)
• Seventy-four percent (74%) of children who are poor readers in 3rd grade remain poor readers in 9th grade (Francis, et al, 1996)
• Remedial reading is generally not very effective in making children more literate. The unavoidable conclusion, then, is that the most sensible way to improve remedial reading is to eliminate the need for it in the first place (Johnson & Allington, 1991, p. 1001)
Reading Trajectories Are Established Early
The Trajectories of poor readers• As many as 54% of students with
difficulty in reading dropout of school prior to graduation (de Bettencourt & Zigmond, 1990)
• Adjustment into adult life; According to Sinclair (1994), of students studied with reading difficulties 62% of (drop-outs ) were arrested compared with only 15% of those who remained in school until successful graduation.
• Three to 4 times as likely to become teenage parents (Shaywitz, 2002)
• Underemployment and unemployment were associated with difficulty in reading and graduation rates …As much as 3 times as likely to be unemployed (Goldstein, Murray & Edgar, 1997, 1998)
persist!
Progress Over Time
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Time
DIB
EL
S O
RF
(W
RC
)
Adeq Pro
Not Adeq
Consider two students
FALL
In Fall
These two students were essentially equivalent in terms of reading in the Fall of grade 3
Progress Over Time
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Time
DIB
EL
S O
RF
(W
RC
)
Adeq Pro
Not Adeq
Consider two students
WIN
In Winter
Small changes were beginning to show up in the data by winter
Progress Over Time
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Time
DIB
EL
S O
RF
(W
RC
)
Adeq Pro
Not AdeqSPR
Consider two studentsIn Spring
By Spring, one student had made categorical progress, the other had not.
Progress Over Time
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Time
DIB
EL
S O
RF
(W
RC
)
Adeq Pro
Not Adeq
Consider two studentsOver the year (2005-06)
• Both students began the year Below Basic• In winter one student had not made any
progress, one student had made minimal progress
• By Spring, one student had demonstrated an average gain of 1 word per week, the other demonstrated little gain all year
Consider two studentsOver the year (2005-06)
Adequate
Not Adequate
The Effect of Progress on DIBELSThe Relation of DIBELS and ISAT (Effects of Progress)
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
DIBELS ORF (WRC)
Rea
din
g S
cal
e S
core
Exceeds Standards
Meets Standards
Below Standards
Academic Warning
The Effect of Progress on DIBELS
The Relation of DIBELS and ISAT (Effects of Progress)
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
240.00
260.00
280.00
300.00
320.00
340.00
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00
DIBELS ORF (WRC)
Rea
din
g S
cal
e S
core
Adeq Pro
Not Adeq
Fall DIBELS (NAP Group)
The Relation of DIBELS and ISAT (Effects of Progress)
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
240.00
260.00
280.00
300.00
320.00
340.00
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00
DIBELS ORF (WRC)
Rea
din
g S
cal
e S
core
Not Adeq
Exceeds Standards
Meets Standards
Below Standards
Academic Warning
Fall DIBELS (AP Group)
The Relation of DIBELS and ISAT (Effects of Progress)
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
240.00
260.00
280.00
300.00
320.00
340.00
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00
DIBELS ORF (WRC)
Rea
din
g S
cal
e S
core
Adeq Pro
Exceeds Standards
Meets Standards
Below Standards
Academic Warning
The Relation of DIBELS and ISAT (Effects of Progress)
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
DIBELS ORF (WRC)
Rea
din
g S
cale
Sco
re
The Effects of Progress
FALL SCORE
Estimated Scale
Difference
20 4040 3460 2880 22
100 16
BIG IDEAS
• CBM (and DIBELS) is related to Outcomes on high stakes tests
• Given the same score in Fall, a student who gains an average of 1 word per week over the course of a year can be expected to score better on high stakes tests, that is, … student improvement from Fall to Spring on DIBELS matters
• CBM (and DIBELS) is related to Outcomes on high stakes tests
• Given the same score in Fall, a student who gains an average of 1 word per week over the course of a year can be expected to score better on high stakes tests, that is, … student improvement from Fall to Spring on DIBELS matters
Progress Monitoring with dibels.uoregon.edu
Progress Monitoring with aimsweb.com
4/18
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5/2/
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7
10
/10
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10
/17
/20
07
25 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
10/2
4/20
07
10/3
1/20
07
11/7
/200
7
11/1
4/20
07
11/2
1/20
07
11/2
8/20
07
12/5
/200
7
12/1
2/20
07
12/1
9/20
07
12/2
6/20
07
1/2/
2008
1/9/
2008
1/16
/200
8
1/23
/200
8
1/30
/200
8
2/6/
2008
2/13
/200
8
2/20
/200
8
2/27
/200
8
3/5/
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3/12
/200
8
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/200
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3/26
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4/2/
2008
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2008
4/16
/200
8
4/23
/200
8
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
4/30
/200
8
5/7/
2008
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/200
8
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6/4/
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/200
8
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7/2/
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8
7/23
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8
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/200
8
8/6/
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8
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8
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9/10
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8
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9/24
/200
8
10/1
/200
8
10/8
/200
8
10/1
5/20
08
10/2
2/20
08
10/2
9/20
08
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
11/5
/200
8
11/1
2/20
08
11/1
9/20
08
11/2
6/20
08
12/3
/200
8
12/1
0/20
08
12/1
7/20
08
12/2
4/20
08
12/3
1/20
08
1/7/
2009
1/14
/200
9
1/21
/200
9
1/28
/200
9
2/4/
2009
2/11
/200
9
2/18
/200
9
2/25
/200
9
3/4/
2009
3/11
/200
9
3/18
/200
9
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
(Confidence Interval at final data point)CI Low CI high This file was created by Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D.;
- - Email questions or comments to [email protected](pred) -Width of CI -
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/21
/200
6
10/1
0/200
6
11/2
9/200
6
1/18
/200
7
3/9/
2007
4/28
/200
7
6/17
/200
7
8/6/
2007
Student: Smith, R; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (90) by 6/13/2007.
#N/A
#N/A
4/18
/200
7
4/25
/200
7
5/2/
2007
5/9/
2007
5/16
/200
7
5/23
/200
7
5/30
/200
7
6/6/
2007
6/13
/200
7
6/20
/200
7
6/27
/200
7
7/4/
2007
7/11
/200
7
7/18
/200
7
7/25
/200
7
8/1/
2007
8/8/
2007
8/15
/200
7
8/22
/200
7
8/29
/200
7
9/5/
2007
9/12
/200
7
9/19
/200
7
9/26
/200
7
10/3
/200
7
10
/10
/20
07
10
/17
/20
07
25 -- 23 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
10/2
4/20
07
10/3
1/20
07
11/7
/200
7
11/1
4/20
07
11/2
1/20
07
11/2
8/20
07
12/5
/200
7
12/1
2/20
07
12/1
9/20
07
12/2
6/20
07
1/2/
2008
1/9/
2008
1/16
/200
8
1/23
/200
8
1/30
/200
8
2/6/
2008
2/13
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8
2/20
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8
2/27
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8
3/5/
2008
3/12
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8
3/19
/200
8
3/26
/200
8
4/2/
2008
4/9/
2008
4/16
/200
8
4/23
/200
8
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
4/30
/200
8
5/7/
2008
5/14
/200
8
5/21
/200
8
5/28
/200
8
6/4/
2008
6/11
/200
8
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8
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8
7/2/
2008
7/9/
2008
7/16
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8
7/23
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8
7/30
/200
8
8/6/
2008
8/13
/200
8
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8
8/27
/200
8
9/3/
2008
9/10
/200
8
9/17
/200
8
9/24
/200
8
10/1
/200
8
10/8
/200
8
10/1
5/20
08
10/2
2/20
08
10/2
9/20
08
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
11/5
/200
8
11/1
2/20
08
11/1
9/20
08
11/2
6/20
08
12/3
/200
8
12/1
0/20
08
12/1
7/20
08
12/2
4/20
08
12/3
1/20
08
1/7/
2009
1/14
/200
9
1/21
/200
9
1/28
/200
9
2/4/
2009
2/11
/200
9
2/18
/200
9
2/25
/200
9
3/4/
2009
3/11
/200
9
3/18
/200
9
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
(Confidence Interval at final data point)CI Low CI high This file was created by Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D.;
- - Email questions or comments to [email protected](pred) 23.0Width of CI -
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/21
/200
6
10/1
0/200
6
11/2
9/200
6
1/18
/200
7
3/9/
2007
4/28
/200
7
6/17
/200
7
8/6/
2007
Student: Smith, R; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (90) by 6/13/2007.
#N/A
#N/A
4/18
/200
7
4/25
/200
7
5/2/
2007
5/9/
2007
5/16
/200
7
5/23
/200
7
5/30
/200
7
6/6/
2007
6/13
/200
7
6/20
/200
7
6/27
/200
7
7/4/
2007
7/11
/200
7
7/18
/200
7
7/25
/200
7
8/1/
2007
8/8/
2007
8/15
/200
7
8/22
/200
7
8/29
/200
7
9/5/
2007
9/12
/200
7
9/19
/200
7
9/26
/200
7
10/3
/200
7
10
/10
/20
07
10
/17
/20
07
25 -- 23 -- 22 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
10/2
4/20
07
10/3
1/20
07
11/7
/200
7
11/1
4/20
07
11/2
1/20
07
11/2
8/20
07
12/5
/200
7
12/1
2/20
07
12/1
9/20
07
12/2
6/20
07
1/2/
2008
1/9/
2008
1/16
/200
8
1/23
/200
8
1/30
/200
8
2/6/
2008
2/13
/200
8
2/20
/200
8
2/27
/200
8
3/5/
2008
3/12
/200
8
3/19
/200
8
3/26
/200
8
4/2/
2008
4/9/
2008
4/16
/200
8
4/23
/200
8
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
4/30
/200
8
5/7/
2008
5/14
/200
8
5/21
/200
8
5/28
/200
8
6/4/
2008
6/11
/200
8
6/18
/200
8
6/25
/200
8
7/2/
2008
7/9/
2008
7/16
/200
8
7/23
/200
8
7/30
/200
8
8/6/
2008
8/13
/200
8
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/200
8
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8
9/3/
2008
9/10
/200
8
9/17
/200
8
9/24
/200
8
10/1
/200
8
10/8
/200
8
10/1
5/20
08
10/2
2/20
08
10/2
9/20
08
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
11/5
/200
8
11/1
2/20
08
11/1
9/20
08
11/2
6/20
08
12/3
/200
8
12/1
0/20
08
12/1
7/20
08
12/2
4/20
08
12/3
1/20
08
1/7/
2009
1/14
/200
9
1/21
/200
9
1/28
/200
9
2/4/
2009
2/11
/200
9
2/18
/200
9
2/25
/200
9
3/4/
2009
3/11
/200
9
3/18
/200
9
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
(Confidence Interval at final data point)CI Low CI high This file was created by Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D.;17.1 26.6 Email questions or comments to [email protected]
y(pred) 21.8Width of CI (9.5)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/21
/200
6
10/1
0/200
6
11/2
9/200
6
1/18
/200
7
3/9/
2007
4/28
/200
7
6/17
/200
7
8/6/
2007
Student: Smith, R; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (90) by 6/13/2007.
Status :Red
Status report: Intervention is not likely to be sucessful, consider intensifying the intervention
4/18
/200
7
4/25
/200
7
5/2/
2007
5/9/
2007
5/16
/200
7
5/23
/200
7
5/30
/200
7
6/6/
2007
6/13
/200
7
6/20
/200
7
6/27
/200
7
7/4/
2007
7/11
/200
7
7/18
/200
7
7/25
/200
7
8/1/
2007
8/8/
2007
8/15
/200
7
8/22
/200
7
8/29
/200
7
9/5/
2007
9/12
/200
7
9/19
/200
7
9/26
/200
7
10/3
/200
7
10
/10
/20
07
10
/17
/20
07
25 -- 23 -- 22 -- 27 -- 30 -- 38 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
10/2
4/20
07
10/3
1/20
07
11/7
/200
7
11/1
4/20
07
11/2
1/20
07
11/2
8/20
07
12/5
/200
7
12/1
2/20
07
12/1
9/20
07
12/2
6/20
07
1/2/
2008
1/9/
2008
1/16
/200
8
1/23
/200
8
1/30
/200
8
2/6/
2008
2/13
/200
8
2/20
/200
8
2/27
/200
8
3/5/
2008
3/12
/200
8
3/19
/200
8
3/26
/200
8
4/2/
2008
4/9/
2008
4/16
/200
8
4/23
/200
8
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
4/30
/200
8
5/7/
2008
5/14
/200
8
5/21
/200
8
5/28
/200
8
6/4/
2008
6/11
/200
8
6/18
/200
8
6/25
/200
8
7/2/
2008
7/9/
2008
7/16
/200
8
7/23
/200
8
7/30
/200
8
8/6/
2008
8/13
/200
8
8/20
/200
8
8/27
/200
8
9/3/
2008
9/10
/200
8
9/17
/200
8
9/24
/200
8
10/1
/200
8
10/8
/200
8
10/1
5/20
08
10/2
2/20
08
10/2
9/20
08
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
11/5
/200
8
11/1
2/20
08
11/1
9/20
08
11/2
6/20
08
12/3
/200
8
12/1
0/20
08
12/1
7/20
08
12/2
4/20
08
12/3
1/20
08
1/7/
2009
1/14
/200
9
1/21
/200
9
1/28
/200
9
2/4/
2009
2/11
/200
9
2/18
/200
9
2/25
/200
9
3/4/
2009
3/11
/200
9
3/18
/200
9
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
(Confidence Interval at final data point)CI Low CI high This file was created by Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D.;26.5 41.5 Email questions or comments to [email protected]
y(pred) 34.0Width of CI (14.9)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/21
/200
6
10/1
0/200
6
11/2
9/200
6
1/18
/200
7
3/9/
2007
4/28
/200
7
6/17
/200
7
8/6/
2007
Student: Smith, R; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (90) by 6/13/2007.
Status :Red
Status report: Intervention is not likely to be sucessful, consider intensifying the intervention
4/18
/200
7
4/25
/200
7
5/2/
2007
5/9/
2007
5/16
/200
7
5/23
/200
7
5/30
/200
7
6/6/
2007
6/13
/200
7
6/20
/200
7
6/27
/200
7
7/4/
2007
7/11
/200
7
7/18
/200
7
7/25
/200
7
8/1/
2007
8/8/
2007
8/15
/200
7
8/22
/200
7
8/29
/200
7
9/5/
2007
9/12
/200
7
9/19
/200
7
9/26
/200
7
10/3
/200
7
10
/10
/20
07
10
/17
/20
07
25 -- 23 -- 22 -- 27 -- 30 -- 38 -- 46 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
10/2
4/20
07
10/3
1/20
07
11/7
/200
7
11/1
4/20
07
11/2
1/20
07
11/2
8/20
07
12/5
/200
7
12/1
2/20
07
12/1
9/20
07
12/2
6/20
07
1/2/
2008
1/9/
2008
1/16
/200
8
1/23
/200
8
1/30
/200
8
2/6/
2008
2/13
/200
8
2/20
/200
8
2/27
/200
8
3/5/
2008
3/12
/200
8
3/19
/200
8
3/26
/200
8
4/2/
2008
4/9/
2008
4/16
/200
8
4/23
/200
8
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
4/30
/200
8
5/7/
2008
5/14
/200
8
5/21
/200
8
5/28
/200
8
6/4/
2008
6/11
/200
8
6/18
/200
8
6/25
/200
8
7/2/
2008
7/9/
2008
7/16
/200
8
7/23
/200
8
7/30
/200
8
8/6/
2008
8/13
/200
8
8/20
/200
8
8/27
/200
8
9/3/
2008
9/10
/200
8
9/17
/200
8
9/24
/200
8
10/1
/200
8
10/8
/200
8
10/1
5/20
08
10/2
2/20
08
10/2
9/20
08
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
11/5
/200
8
11/1
2/20
08
11/1
9/20
08
11/2
6/20
08
12/3
/200
8
12/1
0/20
08
12/1
7/20
08
12/2
4/20
08
12/3
1/20
08
1/7/
2009
1/14
/200
9
1/21
/200
9
1/28
/200
9
2/4/
2009
2/11
/200
9
2/18
/200
9
2/25
/200
9
3/4/
2009
3/11
/200
9
3/18
/200
9
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
(Confidence Interval at final data point)CI Low CI high This file was created by Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D.;33.0 48.9 Email questions or comments to [email protected]
y(pred) 41.0Width of CI (15.9)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/21
/200
6
10/1
0/200
6
11/2
9/200
6
1/18
/200
7
3/9/
2007
4/28
/200
7
6/17
/200
7
8/6/
2007
Student: Smith, R; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (90) by 6/13/2007.
Status :Yellow
Status report: Intervention status is inconclusive, more data are required to increase confidence regarding success of the intervention
4/18
/200
7
4/25
/200
7
5/2/
2007
5/9/
2007
5/16
/200
7
5/23
/200
7
5/30
/200
7
6/6/
2007
6/13
/200
7
6/20
/200
7
6/27
/200
7
7/4/
2007
7/11
/200
7
7/18
/200
7
7/25
/200
7
8/1/
2007
8/8/
2007
8/15
/200
7
8/22
/200
7
8/29
/200
7
9/5/
2007
9/12
/200
7
9/19
/200
7
9/26
/200
7
10/3
/200
7
10
/10
/20
07
10
/17
/20
07
25 -- 23 -- 22 -- 27 -- 30 -- 38 -- 46 -- 45 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
10/2
4/20
07
10/3
1/20
07
11/7
/200
7
11/1
4/20
07
11/2
1/20
07
11/2
8/20
07
12/5
/200
7
12/1
2/20
07
12/1
9/20
07
12/2
6/20
07
1/2/
2008
1/9/
2008
1/16
/200
8
1/23
/200
8
1/30
/200
8
2/6/
2008
2/13
/200
8
2/20
/200
8
2/27
/200
8
3/5/
2008
3/12
/200
8
3/19
/200
8
3/26
/200
8
4/2/
2008
4/9/
2008
4/16
/200
8
4/23
/200
8
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
4/30
/200
8
5/7/
2008
5/14
/200
8
5/21
/200
8
5/28
/200
8
6/4/
2008
6/11
/200
8
6/18
/200
8
6/25
/200
8
7/2/
2008
7/9/
2008
7/16
/200
8
7/23
/200
8
7/30
/200
8
8/6/
2008
8/13
/200
8
8/20
/200
8
8/27
/200
8
9/3/
2008
9/10
/200
8
9/17
/200
8
9/24
/200
8
10/1
/200
8
10/8
/200
8
10/1
5/20
08
10/2
2/20
08
10/2
9/20
08
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
11/5
/200
8
11/1
2/20
08
11/1
9/20
08
11/2
6/20
08
12/3
/200
8
12/1
0/20
08
12/1
7/20
08
12/2
4/20
08
12/3
1/20
08
1/7/
2009
1/14
/200
9
1/21
/200
9
1/28
/200
9
2/4/
2009
2/11
/200
9
2/18
/200
9
2/25
/200
9
3/4/
2009
3/11
/200
9
3/18
/200
9
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
(Confidence Interval at final data point)CI Low CI high This file was created by Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D.;38.2 51.3 Email questions or comments to [email protected]
y(pred) 44.8Width of CI (13.1)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/21
/200
6
10/1
0/200
6
11/2
9/200
6
1/18
/200
7
3/9/
2007
4/28
/200
7
6/17
/200
7
8/6/
2007
Student: Smith, R; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (90) by 6/13/2007.
Status :Yellow
Status report: Intervention status is inconclusive, more data are required to increase confidence regarding success of the intervention
4/18
/200
7
4/25
/200
7
5/2/
2007
5/9/
2007
5/16
/200
7
5/23
/200
7
5/30
/200
7
6/6/
2007
6/13
/200
7
6/20
/200
7
6/27
/200
7
7/4/
2007
7/11
/200
7
7/18
/200
7
7/25
/200
7
8/1/
2007
8/8/
2007
8/15
/200
7
8/22
/200
7
8/29
/200
7
9/5/
2007
9/12
/200
7
9/19
/200
7
9/26
/200
7
10/3
/200
7
10
/10
/20
07
10
/17
/20
07
25 -- 23 -- 22 -- 27 -- 30 -- 38 -- 46 -- 45 -- 59 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
10/2
4/20
07
10/3
1/20
07
11/7
/200
7
11/1
4/20
07
11/2
1/20
07
11/2
8/20
07
12/5
/200
7
12/1
2/20
07
12/1
9/20
07
12/2
6/20
07
1/2/
2008
1/9/
2008
1/16
/200
8
1/23
/200
8
1/30
/200
8
2/6/
2008
2/13
/200
8
2/20
/200
8
2/27
/200
8
3/5/
2008
3/12
/200
8
3/19
/200
8
3/26
/200
8
4/2/
2008
4/9/
2008
4/16
/200
8
4/23
/200
8
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
4/30
/200
8
5/7/
2008
5/14
/200
8
5/21
/200
8
5/28
/200
8
6/4/
2008
6/11
/200
8
6/18
/200
8
6/25
/200
8
7/2/
2008
7/9/
2008
7/16
/200
8
7/23
/200
8
7/30
/200
8
8/6/
2008
8/13
/200
8
8/20
/200
8
8/27
/200
8
9/3/
2008
9/10
/200
8
9/17
/200
8
9/24
/200
8
10/1
/200
8
10/8
/200
8
10/1
5/20
08
10/2
2/20
08
10/2
9/20
08
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
11/5
/200
8
11/1
2/20
08
11/1
9/20
08
11/2
6/20
08
12/3
/200
8
12/1
0/20
08
12/1
7/20
08
12/2
4/20
08
12/3
1/20
08
1/7/
2009
1/14
/200
9
1/21
/200
9
1/28
/200
9
2/4/
2009
2/11
/200
9
2/18
/200
9
2/25
/200
9
3/4/
2009
3/11
/200
9
3/18
/200
9
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
(Confidence Interval at final data point)CI Low CI high This file was created by Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D.;45.2 59.6 Email questions or comments to [email protected]
y(pred) 52.4Width of CI (14.4)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/21
/200
6
10/1
0/200
6
11/2
9/200
6
1/18
/200
7
3/9/
2007
4/28
/200
7
6/17
/200
7
8/6/
2007
Student: Smith, R; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (90) by 6/13/2007.
Status :Yellow
Status report: Intervention status is inconclusive, more data are required to increase confidence regarding success of the intervention
4/18
/200
7
4/25
/200
7
5/2/
2007
5/9/
2007
5/16
/200
7
5/23
/200
7
5/30
/200
7
6/6/
2007
6/13
/200
7
6/20
/200
7
6/27
/200
7
7/4/
2007
7/11
/200
7
7/18
/200
7
7/25
/200
7
8/1/
2007
8/8/
2007
8/15
/200
7
8/22
/200
7
8/29
/200
7
9/5/
2007
9/12
/200
7
9/19
/200
7
9/26
/200
7
10/3
/200
7
10
/10
/20
07
10
/17
/20
07
25 -- 23 -- 22 -- 27 -- 30 -- 38 -- 46 -- 45 -- 59 -- -- -- 65 -- -- -- -- -- --
10/2
4/20
07
10/3
1/20
07
11/7
/200
7
11/1
4/20
07
11/2
1/20
07
11/2
8/20
07
12/5
/200
7
12/1
2/20
07
12/1
9/20
07
12/2
6/20
07
1/2/
2008
1/9/
2008
1/16
/200
8
1/23
/200
8
1/30
/200
8
2/6/
2008
2/13
/200
8
2/20
/200
8
2/27
/200
8
3/5/
2008
3/12
/200
8
3/19
/200
8
3/26
/200
8
4/2/
2008
4/9/
2008
4/16
/200
8
4/23
/200
8
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
4/30
/200
8
5/7/
2008
5/14
/200
8
5/21
/200
8
5/28
/200
8
6/4/
2008
6/11
/200
8
6/18
/200
8
6/25
/200
8
7/2/
2008
7/9/
2008
7/16
/200
8
7/23
/200
8
7/30
/200
8
8/6/
2008
8/13
/200
8
8/20
/200
8
8/27
/200
8
9/3/
2008
9/10
/200
8
9/17
/200
8
9/24
/200
8
10/1
/200
8
10/8
/200
8
10/1
5/20
08
10/2
2/20
08
10/2
9/20
08
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
11/5
/200
8
11/1
2/20
08
11/1
9/20
08
11/2
6/20
08
12/3
/200
8
12/1
0/20
08
12/1
7/20
08
12/2
4/20
08
12/3
1/20
08
1/7/
2009
1/14
/200
9
1/21
/200
9
1/28
/200
9
2/4/
2009
2/11
/200
9
2/18
/200
9
2/25
/200
9
3/4/
2009
3/11
/200
9
3/18
/200
9
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
(Confidence Interval at final data point)CI Low CI high This file was created by Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D.;55.6 69.8 Email questions or comments to [email protected]
y(pred) 62.7Width of CI (14.2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/21
/200
6
10/1
0/200
6
11/2
9/200
6
1/18
/200
7
3/9/
2007
4/28
/200
7
6/17
/200
7
8/6/
2007
Student: Smith, R; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (90) by 6/13/2007.
Status :Green
Status report: Intervention on track.
4/18
/200
7
4/25
/200
7
5/2/
2007
5/9/
2007
5/16
/200
7
5/23
/200
7
5/30
/200
7
6/6/
2007
6/13
/200
7
6/20
/200
7
6/27
/200
7
7/4/
2007
7/11
/200
7
7/18
/200
7
7/25
/200
7
8/1/
2007
8/8/
2007
8/15
/200
7
8/22
/200
7
8/29
/200
7
9/5/
2007
9/12
/200
7
9/19
/200
7
9/26
/200
7
10/3
/200
7
10
/10
/20
07
10
/17
/20
07
25 -- 23 -- 22 -- 27 -- 30 -- 38 -- 46 -- 45 -- 59 -- -- -- 65 -- -- -- 64 -- --
10/2
4/20
07
10/3
1/20
07
11/7
/200
7
11/1
4/20
07
11/2
1/20
07
11/2
8/20
07
12/5
/200
7
12/1
2/20
07
12/1
9/20
07
12/2
6/20
07
1/2/
2008
1/9/
2008
1/16
/200
8
1/23
/200
8
1/30
/200
8
2/6/
2008
2/13
/200
8
2/20
/200
8
2/27
/200
8
3/5/
2008
3/12
/200
8
3/19
/200
8
3/26
/200
8
4/2/
2008
4/9/
2008
4/16
/200
8
4/23
/200
8
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
4/30
/200
8
5/7/
2008
5/14
/200
8
5/21
/200
8
5/28
/200
8
6/4/
2008
6/11
/200
8
6/18
/200
8
6/25
/200
8
7/2/
2008
7/9/
2008
7/16
/200
8
7/23
/200
8
7/30
/200
8
8/6/
2008
8/13
/200
8
8/20
/200
8
8/27
/200
8
9/3/
2008
9/10
/200
8
9/17
/200
8
9/24
/200
8
10/1
/200
8
10/8
/200
8
10/1
5/20
08
10/2
2/20
08
10/2
9/20
08
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
11/5
/200
8
11/1
2/20
08
11/1
9/20
08
11/2
6/20
08
12/3
/200
8
12/1
0/20
08
12/1
7/20
08
12/2
4/20
08
12/3
1/20
08
1/7/
2009
1/14
/200
9
1/21
/200
9
1/28
/200
9
2/4/
2009
2/11
/200
9
2/18
/200
9
2/25
/200
9
3/4/
2009
3/11
/200
9
3/18
/200
9
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
(Confidence Interval at final data point)CI Low CI high This file was created by Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D.;61.5 75.8 Email questions or comments to [email protected]
y(pred) 68.7Width of CI (14.3)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/21
/200
6
10/1
0/200
6
11/2
9/200
6
1/18
/200
7
3/9/
2007
4/28
/200
7
6/17
/200
7
8/6/
2007
Student: Smith, R; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (90) by 6/13/2007.
Status :Green
Status report: Intervention on track.
4/18
/200
7
4/25
/200
7
5/2/
2007
5/9/
2007
5/16
/200
7
5/23
/200
7
5/30
/200
7
6/6/
2007
6/13
/200
7
6/20
/200
7
6/27
/200
7
7/4/
2007
7/11
/200
7
7/18
/200
7
7/25
/200
7
8/1/
2007
8/8/
2007
8/15
/200
7
8/22
/200
7
8/29
/200
7
9/5/
2007
9/12
/200
7
9/19
/200
7
9/26
/200
7
10/3
/200
7
10
/10
/20
07
10
/17
/20
07
25 -- 23 -- 22 -- 27 -- 30 -- 38 -- 46 -- 45 -- 59 -- -- -- 65 -- -- -- 64 -- --
10/2
4/20
07
10/3
1/20
07
11/7
/200
7
11/1
4/20
07
11/2
1/20
07
11/2
8/20
07
12/5
/200
7
12/1
2/20
07
12/1
9/20
07
12/2
6/20
07
1/2/
2008
1/9/
2008
1/16
/200
8
1/23
/200
8
1/30
/200
8
2/6/
2008
2/13
/200
8
2/20
/200
8
2/27
/200
8
3/5/
2008
3/12
/200
8
3/19
/200
8
3/26
/200
8
4/2/
2008
4/9/
2008
4/16
/200
8
4/23
/200
8
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
4/30
/200
8
5/7/
2008
5/14
/200
8
5/21
/200
8
5/28
/200
8
6/4/
2008
6/11
/200
8
6/18
/200
8
6/25
/200
8
7/2/
2008
7/9/
2008
7/16
/200
8
7/23
/200
8
7/30
/200
8
8/6/
2008
8/13
/200
8
8/20
/200
8
8/27
/200
8
9/3/
2008
9/10
/200
8
9/17
/200
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9/24
/200
8
10/1
/200
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10/8
/200
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10/1
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-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
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/200
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/200
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7/20
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/200
9
1/21
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2/11
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3/11
/200
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3/18
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9
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
(Confidence Interval at final data point)CI Low CI high This file was created by Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D.;72.3 85.6 Email questions or comments to [email protected]
y(pred) 79.0Width of CI (13.4)
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Student: Smith, R; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (90) by 6/13/2007.
Status :Green
Status report: Intervention on track.
Monitoring Progress with Confidence
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Student: Smith, R; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (90) by 6/13/2007.
Status :Green
Status report: Intervention on track.
Available free from MeasuredEffects.com
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2007
Student: Smith, R; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (90) by 6/13/2007.
Status :Green
Status report: Intervention on track.
Do you see progress?You call ‘em
0
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Student: MCA 5; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (110) by 3/5/2008.
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2008
Student: MCA 5; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (110) by 3/5/2008.
0
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2/22
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6/1/
2008
Student: MCA 5; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (110) by 3/5/2008.
Status :Red
Status report: Intervention is not likely to be sucessful, consider intensifying the intervention
Do you see progress?You call ‘em
Do you see progress?You call ‘em
Do you see progress?You call ‘em
0
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2008
Student: MCA 1; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (110) by 3/5/2008.
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6/1/
2008
Student: MCA 1; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (110) by 3/5/2008.
0
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2008
Student: MCA 1; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (110) by 3/5/2008.
Status :Green
Status report: Intervention on track.
Do you see progress?You call ‘em
0
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2006
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2007
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6/1/
2008
Student: MCA 4; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (110) by 3/5/2008.
0
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2006
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2008
Student: MCA 4; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (110) by 3/5/2008.
0
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7/2/
2006
10/1
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7
4/28
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8/6/
2007
11/1
4/200
7
2/22
/200
8
6/1/
2008
Student: MCA 4; Target behavior: Words read correctly in one minute; Goal performance (110) by 3/5/2008.
Status :Yellow
Status report: Intervention status is inconclusive, more data are required to increase confidence regarding success of the intervention
Do you see progress?You call ‘em
Do you see progress?You call ‘em
Do you see progress?You call ‘em
Do you see progress?You call ‘em
Adequate level and progress – Monitoring progress of groups
• Adequate Level – NCLB is focused on measuring the percentage of
students deemed to be making Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP measures level)
– CBM and DIBELS predict outcomes on the state test (Snapshots of progress)
• Adequate Progress– We can use CBM and DIBELS to examine progress
toward AYP as defined by the state
• How many correct words did 5th grade students read in one minute?
• How does the CBM score relate to how well they do on the ISAT?
Kelsey read 120 words
Dorothy read 225 words
Sarah read 147 words
Mark read 175 words
CBM is a measure of Reading?
Exceeds
Meets
Below
Warning
Grade 5
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
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R-CBM
ISA
T
Exceeds
Meets
Below
Warning
Before ISAT testing what we knew was the Before ISAT testing what we knew was the CBM score (CWPM).CBM score (CWPM).
Kelsey read 120 words
Dorothy read 225 words
Sarah read 147 words
Mark read 175 words
Setting up a chart to compare scores
Grade 5
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
110
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R-CBM
ISA
T
Exceeds
Meets
Below
Warning
Setting up a chart to compare scores
Grade 5
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0 10
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0
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R-CBM
ISA
T
Exceeds
Meets
Below
Warning
100% of (62, 5th grade) students who read less than 120 wordsper minute were below state standards on ISAT
Remember Kelsey?
Students who read less than 120 correct words per minute
She read 120 words correctly in a minuteShe obtained a score of 150 on ISAT
Grade 5
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R-CBM
ISA
T
Exceeds
Meets
Below
Warning
100% of (62, 5th grade) students who read less than 130 wordsper minute were below state standards on ISAT
Students who read less than 130 correct words per minute
Grade 5
0
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0 10
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R-CBM
ISA
T
Exceeds
Meets
Below
Warning
Students who read less than 140 correct words per minute
77% of (62, 5th grade) students who read less than 140 wordsper minute were below state standards on ISAT
What can we infer about students who are not fluent readers and ISAT? (<150 cwpm)
Grade 5
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R-CBM
ISA
T
Exceeds
Meets
Below
Warning
75% of (62, 5th grade) students who read less than 150 wordsper minute were below state standards on ISAT
Now consider just the students who read more than 150 correct words per minute
Grade 5
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R-CBM
ISA
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Exceeds
Meets
Below
Warning
90% of (62, 5th grade) students who read more than 150 wordsper minute were above state standards on ISAT.
Remember Mark?
Caveat
• Limitation: That was a small sample, from two schools in one district.
• Solution: What about looking at data from 3 different school years, 3 different districts, with both the new and old ISAT
Correct = 90%Correct = 81%
Correct = 71%
Correct = 71%
Correct = 83%
Correct = 88% 115 DNM144 80%
Below Basic
242 met279 87%
Proficient
Benchmarks over time function well to
predict success
The relation between R-CBM and high stakes testing
100
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0 20 40 60 80 100
120
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CWPM
Sca
le S
core
Rea
ding
The relation between R-CBM and high stakes testing
100
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220
0 20 40 60 80 100
120
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CWPM
Sca
le S
core
Rea
din
g
The relation between R-CBM and high stakes testing
100
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0 20 40 60 80 100
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CWPM
Sca
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core
Rea
din
g
CBM “Proficient” who met standards
Fall 91%Winter 89%Spring 90%
CBM “Below Basic” who DNM standards
Fall 69%Winter 77%Spring 77%
We can use CBM and DIBELS to summarize adequate progress for the three tiers of
instruction within RTI
Summary of Adequate Progress
• Cut Scores for R-CBM and DORF have been derived for assessment 3 times per year.– When student are likely to meet standards, we might refer to
them as proficient– When students are likely not to met standards, we might refer to
them as below basic– There are some students whose performance is such that we do
not know, we refer to them as questionable.
• We know what scores we expect in Fall, Winter and Spring.
• We can use this information to determine whether a school is making adequate progress, within a given tier, or as a whole.
Grade MeasureFall
Below BasicFall
ProficientWinter
Below BasicWinter
ProficientSpring
Below BasicSpring
Proficient
K LNF* 2 8 15 27 29 40LSF** - 7 - 16 - 36ISF* 4 8 10 25 - -PSF* - - 7 18 10 35NWF* - - 5 13 15 25
1 NWF* 13 24 30 50 - -R-CBM 0 20 20 40 40 60MAZE x x 2 6 5 10
2 R-CBM 30 45 55 65 70 90MAZE 2 4 5 10 8 15
3 R-CBM 60 80 77 100 90 115MAZE 5 10 10 17 15 22
4 R-CBM 60 105 85 125 95 140MAZE 7 11 13 18 15 20
5 R-CBM 95 130 125 145 140 155MAZE 11 17 16 23 21 28
6 R-CBM 130 155 130 160 130 160Maze 12 17 18 24 23 30
7 R-CBM 135 165 145 165 145 165Maze 14 19 17 23 23 30
8 R-CBM 135 185 145 185 155 185Maze 15 20 18 25 22 28
R-CBM BB QS PS Pct Meet BB QS PSFall Grade 3 50 55 462 .66 77% 27% 68% 91%Winter Grade 3 80 90 470 .70 78% 31% 74% 91%Spring Grade 3 95 115 451 .68 77% 31% 76% 91%
Fall Grade 5 95 130 527 .62 72% 28% 63% 91%Winter Grade 5 105 145 544 .60 71% 30% 59% 89%Spring Grade 5 130 160 532 .61 71% 33% 63% 89%
Fall Grade 8 120 155 702 .62 77% 34% 66% 92%Winter Grade 8 125 165 695 .58 77% 31% 67% 91%Spring Grade 8 138 175 708 .62 77% 31% 64% 92%
Example - actual percentages meeting standards
How Effective is Tier 3 (intensive intervention)?
91
School Name: Sample Elementary School
8088%
84
How Effective is Tier 3 (intensive intervention)?
91 80
School Name: Sample Elementary School
1810%
9
8088%
84
How Effective is Tier 3 (intensive intervention)?
91 80
9
School Name: Sample Elementary School
30
2%2
1810%
9
8088%
84
How Effective is Tier 3 (intensive intervention)?
91 80
9
School Name: Sample Elementary School
2
Progress 11 12%No Progress 80 88%
30
2%2
1810%
9
8088%
84
How Effective is Tier 3 (intensive intervention)?
91 80
9
School Name: Sample Elementary School
2
Progress 11 12%No Progress 80 88%
Monitoring progress of groups: Below Basic
30
18
84
How Effective is Tier 2 Instruction (Strategic Support)?
12
30
18
33%4
84
How Effective is Tier 2 Instruction (Strategic Support)?
4
12
30
42%5
18
33%4
84
How Effective is Tier 2 Instruction (Strategic Support)?
4
12 5
3025%
3
42%5
18
33%4
84
How Effective is Tier 2 Instruction (Strategic Support)?
4
12 5
3
Progress 3 25%No Progress 9 75%
3025%
3
42%5
18
33%4
84
How Effective is Tier 2 Instruction (Strategic Support)?
4
12 5
3
Progress 3 25%No Progress 9 75%
Monitoring progress of groups: Questionable Status
30
18
84
How Effective is Tier 1 Instruction (Core)?
2930
180%0
84
How Effective is Tier 1 Instruction (Core)?
0
2930
14%4
180%0
84
How Effective is Tier 1 Instruction (Core)?
0
4
2986%25
30
14%4
180%0
84
How Effective is Tier 1 Instruction (Core)?
0
25
4
29
Progress 25 86%No Progress 4 14%
86%25
30
14%4
180%0
84
How Effective is Tier 1 Instruction (Core)?
0
25
4
29
Progress 25 86%No Progress 4 14%
Monitoring progress of groups: Proficient Status
Progress 39 30%No Progress 93 70%
Progress 39 30%No Progress 93 70%
Notes. • In this example, most students who begin below basic remain below
basic (88%)• Most students who begin in questionable status, do not make progress
(25% made progress).• Most students who enter on track, stay on track (86%), but not all
• Overall most students in this example did not demonstrate progress
Monitoring Progress of all students
22%
9%
69%
0
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160
Pre Post
22%
9%
69%
23%
14%
63%
0
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160
Pre Post
22%
9%
69%
23%
14%
63%
0
20
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160
Pre Post
22%
9%
69%
23%
14%
63%
0
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160
Pre Post
22%
9%
69%
23%
14%
63%
0
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160
Pre Post
Notes. • In this example, slightly more students were tested in the first
window than the second• These snapshots indicate slighlty more students on track in the
second window than the first• Much work remains for the students and staff in this example
building
BIG IDEAS
• We have the technology to monitor progress of individual students
• Individual students who demonstrate progress increase their chances of – Meeting standards on state tests– Success in school …life
• We have the technology to monitor progress of groups within schools
