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Advanced drop in biofuels · PDF file Advanced drop-in biofuels UK production capacity outlook to 2030 Final Report SPATS Work Package 1-045 PPRO 04/75/17 E4tech (UK) Ltd for Department

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  • | Strategic thinking in sustainable energy

    Advanced drop-in biofuels

    UK production capacity outlook to 2030

    Final Report

    SPATS Work Package 1-045

    PPRO 04/75/17

    E4tech (UK) Ltd for Department for Transport

    in partnership with TRL, Temple and Scarlett Research

    February 2017

  • Contents

    Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 1

    1 Introduction and scope ............................................................................................................................. 6

    2 Technology assessment ............................................................................................................................. 9

    2.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 9

    2.2 Gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis.................................................................................................... 11

    2.3 Fast pyrolysis and upgrading ........................................................................................................................... 15

    2.4 Hydrothermal liquefaction and upgrading ...................................................................................................... 18

    2.5 Aerobic fermentation of 2G sugars to hydrocarbons ...................................................................................... 21

    2.6 Aqueous phase reforming of 2G sugars to hydrocarbons ............................................................................... 24

    2.7 Catalytic conversion of 2G alcohols to hydrocarbons ..................................................................................... 26

    2.8 Commercialisation outlook ............................................................................................................................. 29

    3 Feedstock availability assessment ........................................................................................................... 30

    3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 30

    3.2 Municipal solid waste ...................................................................................................................................... 31

    3.3 Straw ............................................................................................................................................................... 38

    3.4 Manure ............................................................................................................................................................ 45

    3.5 Forestry residues ............................................................................................................................................. 46

    3.6 Wood waste .................................................................................................................................................... 49

    3.7 Other wastes and residues .............................................................................................................................. 52

    3.8 Imported feedstock ......................................................................................................................................... 53

    3.9 Infrastructure for imports and upgrading ....................................................................................................... 54

    3.10 Implications for production outlook ............................................................................................................... 56

    4 Evaluation of non-technical barriers ....................................................................................................... 58

    4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 58

    4.2 Supply side barriers ......................................................................................................................................... 58

    4.3 Demand side barriers ...................................................................................................................................... 61

    5 ‘Realisable maximum’ production estimate to 2030 .............................................................................. 64

    5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 64

    5.2 Realisable maximum for global capacity ......................................................................................................... 66

    5.3 Realisable maximum for UK capacity .............................................................................................................. 67

    6 Policy review and considerations ............................................................................................................ 70

    6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 70

    6.2 Current and proposed policies & funding mechanisms .................................................................................. 70

    6.3 Policy considerations ....................................................................................................................................... 75

  • List of figures

    Figure 1.1: Overview of conversion routes from feedstocks to products in-scope ............................................................ 8

    Figure 2.1: TRL status of different advanced biofuels ...................................................................................................... 10

    Figure 2.2: Generic process diagram for gasification + FT synthesis ................................................................................ 11

    Figure 2.3: Generic process diagram for fast pyrolysis and upgrading ............................................................................. 15

    Figure 2.4: Generic process diagram for hydrothermal liquefaction and upgrading ....................................................... 18

    Figure 2.5: Generic process diagram for conversion of 2G sugars to hydrocarbons via fermentation ............................ 21

    Figure 2.6: Generic process diagram for aqueous phase reforming to hydrocarbons ..................................................... 24

    Figure 2.7: Generic process diagram for conversion of alcohols to hydrocarbons .......................................................... 26

    Figure 2.8: Generic process diagram for conversion of methanol to gasoline ................................................................. 26

    Figure 3.1: EU waste hierarchy from the EU Waste Framework Directive ....................................................................... 32

    Figure 3.2: Biological MSW accessible for UK energy uses from 2015 to 2030 31

    ............................................................. 33

    Figure 3.3: Potential future residual waste capacity gap in the UK (wet tonnes, fossil and biogenic) ............................. 34

    Figure 3.4: Regional availability of MSW (wet), excluding recycling, in 2014/15 ............................................................. 35

    Figure 3.5: Potential locations for sourcing MSW feedstocks, on a GB population density background ......................... 38

    Figure 3.6: Current and projected straw resource in the UK that could be accessible from 2015 to 2030 31

    ................... 40

    Figure 3.7: Regional straw production, showing current use and uncollected straw that may be available 40

    ................ 41

    Figure 3.8: Density of straw availability for energy uses in the East of England 43

    ............................................................ 42

    Figure 3.9: Potential plant locations using straw (yellow), with surplus regions (green) and competing plants (red) .... 44

    Figure 3.10: Regional GB current sustainable and recoverable forest waste arisings 40

    ................................................... 46

    Figure 3.11: Current and projected available forest residues in the UK from 2015 to 2030 31

    ......................................... 47

    Figure 3.12: Proposed plant locations for using forest residues (yellow), with major forest areas (green) and competing

    plants (red) ....................................................................................................................................................................... 49

    Figure 3.13: Current and projected UK waste wood that could be accessible from 2015 to 2030 31

    ............................... 51

    Figure 3.14: Regional production of waste wood 53

    .......................................................................................................... 51

    Figure 3.15: Global agricultural residues and woody biomass potentially available to UK 31

    ........................................... 53

    Figure 3.16: Anticipated increase in dema

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