Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 1
1 Introduction and scope ............................................................................................................................. 6
2 Technology assessment ............................................................................................................................. 9
2.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 9
2.2 Gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis.................................................................................................... 11
2.3 Fast pyrolysis and upgrading ........................................................................................................................... 15
2.4 Hydrothermal liquefaction and upgrading ...................................................................................................... 18
2.5 Aerobic fermentation of 2G sugars to hydrocarbons ...................................................................................... 21
2.6 Aqueous phase reforming of 2G sugars to hydrocarbons ............................................................................... 24
2.7 Catalytic conversion of 2G alcohols to hydrocarbons ..................................................................................... 26
2.8 Commercialisation outlook ............................................................................................................................. 29
3 Feedstock availability assessment ........................................................................................................... 30
3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 30
3.2 Municipal solid waste ...................................................................................................................................... 31
3.3 Straw ............................................................................................................................................................... 38
3.4 Manure ............................................................................................................................................................ 45
3.5 Forestry residues ............................................................................................................................................. 46
3.6 Wood waste .................................................................................................................................................... 49
3.7 Other wastes and residues .............................................................................................................................. 52
3.8 Imported feedstock ......................................................................................................................................... 53
3.9 Infrastructure for imports and upgrading ....................................................................................................... 54
3.10 Implications for production outlook ............................................................................................................... 56
4 Evaluation of non-technical barriers ....................................................................................................... 58
4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 58
4.2 Supply side barriers ......................................................................................................................................... 58
4.3 Demand side barriers ...................................................................................................................................... 61
5 ‘Realisable maximum’ production estimate to 2030 .............................................................................. 64
5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 64
5.2 Realisable maximum for global capacity ......................................................................................................... 66
5.3 Realisable maximum for UK capacity .............................................................................................................. 67
6 Policy review and considerations ............................................................................................................ 70
6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 70
6.2 Current and proposed policies & funding mechanisms .................................................................................. 70
6.3 Policy considerations ....................................................................................................................................... 75
List of figures
Figure 1.1: Overview of conversion routes from feedstocks to products in-scope ............................................................ 8
Figure 2.1: TRL status of different advanced biofuels ...................................................................................................... 10
Figure 2.2: Generic process diagram for gasification + FT synthesis ................................................................................ 11
Figure 2.3: Generic process diagram for fast pyrolysis and upgrading ............................................................................. 15
Figure 2.4: Generic process diagram for hydrothermal liquefaction and upgrading ....................................................... 18
Figure 2.5: Generic process diagram for conversion of 2G sugars to hydrocarbons via fermentation ............................ 21
Figure 2.6: Generic process diagram for aqueous phase reforming to hydrocarbons ..................................................... 24
Figure 2.7: Generic process diagram for conversion of alcohols to hydrocarbons .......................................................... 26
Figure 2.8: Generic process diagram for conversion of methanol to gasoline ................................................................. 26
Figure 3.1: EU waste hierarchy from the EU Waste Framework Directive ....................................................................... 32
Figure 3.2: Biological MSW accessible for UK energy uses from 2015 to 2030
31
............................................................. 33
Figure 3.3: Potential future residual waste capacity gap in the UK (wet tonnes, fossil and biogenic) ............................. 34
Figure 3.4: Regional availability of MSW (wet), excluding recycling, in 2014/15 ............................................................. 35
Figure 3.5: Potential locations for sourcing MSW feedstocks, on a GB population density background ......................... 38
Figure 3.6: Current and projected straw resource in the UK that could be accessible from 2015 to 2030
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................... 40
Figure 3.7: Regional straw production, showing current use and uncollected straw that may be available
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................ 41
Figure 3.8: Density of straw availability for energy uses in the East of England
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............................................................ 42
Figure 3.9: Potential plant locations using straw (yellow), with surplus regions (green) and competing plants (red) .... 44
Figure 3.10: Regional GB current sustainable and recoverable forest waste arisings
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................................................... 46
Figure 3.11: Current and projected available forest residues in the UK from 2015 to 2030
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......................................... 47
Figure 3.12: Proposed plant locations for using forest residues (yellow), with major forest areas (green) and competing
plants (red) ....................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Figure 3.13: Current and projected UK waste wood that could be accessible from 2015 to 2030
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............................... 51
Figure 3.14: Regional production of waste wood
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.......................................................................................................... 51
Figure 3.15: Global agricultural residues and woody biomass potentially available to UK
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........................................... 53
Figure 3.16: Anticipated increase in dema
