ADVANCED ANALYTICAL TOOLS FOR

ROADMAP DEVELOPMENT

Presented by G. Fesenko, INPRO

Prepared by Andrianov A. INPRO/IAEA consultant

Dialogue Forum 11 on Collaborative Project "Roadmaps for a Transition to Globally Sustainable Nuclear Energy Systems"

(ROADMAPS), 20-23 October 2015, IAEA, Vienna, Austria

CONTENT

• Overview of references and advanced tools for nuclear related roadmaps

• Roadmapping towards sustainable NES

• Conclusions

Overview of references and advanced tools for

nuclear related roadmaps

INTRODUCTION

• ‘Roadmap’ is a generic term meaning a detailed plan for achieving some goal and to guide

progress toward this goal. It is a synonym for ‘guide to future goals’, ‘guideline’, ‘plan’,

‘direction’, ‘instruction’, ‘map’, ‘protocol’, ‘standard’, ‘procedure’.

• Roadmapping is a targets-oriented technology or non-technology (policy-oriented)

planning process to help identify, select, and develop alternatives to satisfy a set of

requirements and provides information to make better decisions (technology or policy

alternatives, R&D allocations, etc) by identifying critical elements and gaps.

• A roadmap is the structured output of the roadmapping process including identified critical

system elements (actions, technologies) and milestones (timeframes, time lags,

interconnections) to meet performance targets and requirements.

• Several analytical tools (methods, software, etc) are available to support technology or

non-technology (policy-oriented) roadmapping providing means to gather, explore,

organize, analyze and communicate the information necessary for decision-making

process related to roadmap construction.

REFERENCES ON NUCLEAR RELATED ROADMAPS General

IEA Technology roadmaps , https://www.iea.org/roadmaps/

UNIDO technology foresight, http://www.unido.org/foresight.html

Institute for Manufacturing, Department of Engineering Cambridge, UK, http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/roadmapping/research/

Nuclear related roadmapping

Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, 2010 edition, NEA /IEA,

https://www.iea.org/media/freepublications/technologyroadmaps/nuclear_roadmap2010.pdf

Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, 2015 edition, NEA /IEA,

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/TechnologyRoadmapNuclearEnergy.pdf

Nuclear energy research and development roadmap, 2010, DOE , http://energy.gov/ne/downloads/nuclear-energy-research-and-

development-roadmap

A Technology Roadmap for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems, https://www.gen-4.org/gif/upload/docs/application/pdf/2014-03/gif-

tru2014.pdf

Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap: Future Pathways, 2013,

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/168043/bis-13-632-nuclear-energy-research-and-

development-roadmap-future-pathway.pdf

The path to sustainable nuclear energy – basic and applied research opportunities for advanced fuel cycles, DOE, 2005,

http://science.energy.gov/~/media/bes/pdf/reports/files/psne_rpt.pdf Others A technology roadmap for generation IV nuclear energy systems, US DoE Nuclear Energy Research Advisory Committee and the Generation IV International Forum, 2002.

Generation IV roadmap – crosscutting fuel cycle R&D scope report, nuclear energy systems, 2002.

A roadmap to deploy new nuclear power plants in the United States by 2010, Volume 1 – Summary Report; Volume II – Main Report , 2001.

The nuclear roadmap portal – a service to the nuclear energy community.

Strategic plan for light water reactor research and development, US DoE / Nuclear Power Industry, 2004.

Indian programme related to innovative nuclear reactor technology, Sinha & Kakodkar, 2002.

A roadmap for developing ATW technology: target-blanket technology, accelerator transmutation of waste, 1999.

A roadmap for developing ATW technology: system scenarios & integration, accelerator transmutation of waste, van Tuyle et al., 2001.

ATW accelerator technology in US roadmap”, accelerator transmutation of waste, 2001.

A roadmap for developing accelerator transmutation of waste (ATW) technology, DoE report to Congress, 1999.

Preparation of a technology development roadmap for the accelerator transmutation of waste (ATW) system, 1999.

A European roadmap for developing accelerator driven systems (ADS) for nuclear waste incineration, 2001.

An integrated roadmap for the programmatic resolution of gas generation issues in packages containing radioactive waste/materials, 2001;

Roadmapping the resolution of gas generation issues in packages containing radioactive waste/materials – a status report, 2002.

Executive summary, sodium bearing waste.

Engineering & technology roadmap – reducing technical risk and uncertainty in the EM program, Nuclear waste management, US Department of Energy, Office of Environmental Management, 2008.

Nuclear fission energy roadmap, UK Energy Research Centre, 2008.

Nuclear fission energy roadmap, Howarth, Dalton Nuclear Institute, 2008.

Accelerator-driven subcritical reactor outlook, thorium energy amplifier, ThorEA, 2010.

etc

ANALYTICAL TOOLS AND SOFTWARE FOR TECHNOLOGY

ROADMAPPING

Visualization tools:

trees, taxonomy, Gantt chart, mind map, concept map, etc

Software supports the roadmapping

(data input, analysis, reporting):

MS Project or other Gantt software (Aha, ProductPlan, etc)

Integrated tools (Vision Strategist, VersionOne, etc)

Analytical tools:

decision tree, MCDA, cost-benefit analysis, portfolio optimization, etc.

General Visualization tools

http://www.visual-literacy.org/periodic_table/periodic_table.html#

Visualizations tools to support roadmapping

(data input, analysis, reporting):

The general roadmap is a multi-layered and

time-based chart. Roadmaps utilize different

visualization techniques (more commonly used

- trees, flow chart, Gantt chart, mind map,

influence diagram, concept map, etc).

What options is the most suitable within

sustainable NES roadmapping is an open

question that should be considered.

Examples of the most popular options for

roadmap visualizations:

recommendation reflected in the UNIDO training program on

technological foresight.

Analytical tools to support roadmapping (data input,

analysis, reporting) Analytical tools:

decision tree, MCDM: cost-benefit analysis,

portfolio optimization, etc.

A decision tree and influence diagram is used as a visual and analytical

decision support tool, where the expected values of competing alternatives are

calculated. The decision trees analyze scenarios that have chosen outcomes

and provide a graph that depicts a system.

Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques are a tool aimed at

supporting decision makers who are faced with making numerous and

conflicting assessments. MCDM techniques intend to highlight conflicts and

find compromises in the decision making process. Multi-criteria decision

analysis methods is considered to be a transparent and flexible approach used

to support a wide range of decisions including those arising within the roadmap

elaboration ;.

• cost-benefit-risk assessment (cost-risk–benefit analysis to quantify risks and

benefits)

• portfolio optimization (choice of the proportions of various assets to be held

in a portfolio)

Roadmapping towards sustainable NES

INPRO CP ROADMAP BACKGROUND

G A I N S

(analytical framework for assessing dynamic of NES

for sustainability (key indicators concept)

K I N D

(structured approach for comparative evaluation of NES

and related technological options)

S Y N E R G I E S

(national, regional and global and joint case studies on various synergies among nuclear technologies and

forms of collaboration among nuclear technology suppliers

and users )

R O A D M A P

(structured

approach for

documenting

actions, work

scope, timeframes

for stakeholders)

ROADMAPS Collaborative Project are based

on the outputs of GAINS, SYNERGIES and

several other INPRO projects and, therefore,

serve as an umbrella to facilitate Member

States’ effective use of the outputs of INPRO

projects.

ROADMAPS integrates the outputs into

structured approach for documenting actions,

work scope, timeframes for stakeholders

ROADMAPS will identify the gaps in

international collaboration in developing

globally sustainable NESs; so that solutions to

close such gaps can be developed in future

projects

Features of roadmapping towards sustainable NES

Features of roadmapping towards

sustainable NES

developing a structured approach for

achieving globally sustainable nuclear energy

using developed options

indicating, where savings in time, effort and

resources could be achieved by countries

through international collaboration

long-term perspective and dynamic nature

Word clouds for ‘sustainable NES’ &‘roadmap’

with related tags &terms

Reactor types Reactor types Reactor types Reactor types Reactor types Fuel cycle

technologies

Reactor types Reactor types NES function Reactor types Reactor types Collaboration

strategies

Technological

component i

Technological

component n

Collaboration

strategy i

Collaboration

strategy n

Requirements,

Targets,

Tools

Roadmapping (identifications gaps,

actions, work scope,

timelines)

Time frame1 ………….. Timeframe n …

structured documenting actions,

scope of work, and timeframes

TECHNOLOGICAL AND COLLABORATION STRATEGY OPTIONS

Roadmapping towards sustainable NES

Audience,

Scope

OPTIONS FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY

Enhancing Sustainability via Advanced Reactors and Fuel Cycles

Safe, secure, proliferation resistant, economical and publically acceptable

nuclear power with security of supply identified within the current century

Safe disposal of all nuclear wastes via a complete nuclear fuel cycle with

retrievable spent nuclear fuel disposal

Initiate recycling of used nuclear fuel to reduce wastes

Guarantee nuclear fuel resources indefinitely via complete recycle of used

fuel while also significantly reducing the final waste amount to be disposed

Further reduce the radiotoxicity, residual heat and the longevity of all

wastes via minor actinide transmutation

Collaborative enhancements

NES collaboration strategy reliance

on

NES Function

National indigenous technology development Obtain/produce Uranium

Convert/enrich uranium

International cooperation: single bi-lateral

agreement

Fabricate/ obtain fuel

NPP design

International cooperation: multi-lateral

agreement

NPP operation

Store SNF

International cooperation: multiple bi-lateral

agreements/ multiple suppliers providing for a

competitive choice of the supplier/customer

Reprocess SNF

Dispose HLW/SNF

Enhancing Sustainability via

Advanced Reactors and Fuel Cycles

Collaborative enhancements

NES DEPLOYMENT STRATEGY MONITORING

tracking/monitoring NES deployment strategy against milestones includes

monitoring function reflecting the ‘expected NES improvement;

key points indicating key developments (key events) that would note milestones on the way to

desirable targets;

KIND FRAMEWORK The KIND framework (elaborated within the INPRO KIND CP) provides recommendations and tools

on a full cycle of MCDA application for NES comparative evaluation:

Scoring scale selection for indicators’ assessment

MCDA method selection (value-based, outranking, reference-based, other/hybrid methods)

Value function shape evaluation (linear, polynomial, exponential, logarithmic, piecewise forms)

Weighting factor identification (direct, rating, ranking, pairwise comparisons, swing methods)

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (direct, stochastic approaches)

Results representation (color codes, heat maps, aggregation in costs-risks-benefits categories)

GAINS NES SCENARIOS COMPARATIVE EVALUATION

http://www.hindawi.com/journals/stni/2015/910162/

MONITORING/TRACING GAINS SCENARIOS Scenarios Comments

HG0-High-L1H1-FC1-N BAU

HG0-High-L1L2H1-FC3-N modified BAU

HG0-High-L1L2H1F1-FC3-N homogenous

NG0Sep-High-L1L2H1F1-FC3-N separate

NG0Syn-High-L1L2H1F1-FC3-N synergetic

Monitoring indicators Expected improvement

(1) Uranium consumption Reduction of uranium consumption

(2) Enrichment capacity Reduction of enrichment capacity

(3) Reprocessing capacity Reduction of reprocessing capacity

(4) SNF in long-term storage Reduction of SNF in long-term storage

(5) Pu amount Reduction of Pu amount

(5) MA amount Reduction of MA amount

(1) (2) (3)

(4) (5) (6)

CONCLUSIONS

• ROADMAPS represents as an integrated framework allowing assimilation of achievements

of the INPRO section on the ‘Global scenarios’ task (KIND, GAINS, SYNERGIES projects)

targeting to provide additive values for decision makers related to NES deployment strategy

elaboration and justification.

• Within ROADMAPS it looks reasonable to adapt well-founded and effective analytical

roadmapping tools for sustainable NES roadmapping project by providing

recommendations regarding implementation of best-practices and developing patterns,

templates, frameworks illustrating sustainable NES-oriented roadmapping.

• Adaptation of quantative software tools and models elaborated within INPRO activities in

the areas of NES assessment, modeling and comparative evaluation provides a chance to

cover basic steps of roadmapping activities: visioning, roadmap elaboration and monitoring.

• Such tools provide added value to the studies related to NES sustainability roadmapping

projects, which may be considered as an additional service to Member State being

provided by the INPRO section.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION